Bitcoin trading calls

The thought when I made this thread was to create a place where bitcoin traders could share their calls and analysis in the hope that we can all learn from our successes and mistakes. And if a few traders seem to be doing well and have similar trades, maybe that in itself could be an indicator to give stronger conviction. That was also the hope.

No reason to feel ashamed about a bad call, it happens to the best of us. Every loss is an opportunity to grow if you try to learn from it.

No reason to gloat when theres a win. Its a sign of immaturity as a trader and a person to gloat, as a truly seasoned trader has had the ego beaten out of them by the market over and over again to where theres very little left if anything at all.

I know 10-15k seems impossible, but this explains how it could actually happen and how close we are right now. I asked Grok AI

How could bitcoin spiral down as price goes below the cost to mint new coins?

Bitcoin could enter a "death spiral" (or miner capitulation cycle) if its price sustainably falls below the average cost of mining new coins. This is a self-reinforcing feedback loop driven by mining economics, forced selling, and eroding network confidence—though Bitcoin's built-in difficulty adjustment has historically prevented total collapse.Core Mechanism: Mining Costs vs. PriceBitcoin miners use specialized hardware (ASICs) and massive electricity to solve computational puzzles and "mint" new BTC (currently 3.125 BTC per block post-2024 halving, plus transaction fees). The all-in sustaining cost (AISC)—electricity, cooling, hardware depreciation, hosting, etc.—determines the breakeven price.
coindesk.com +1

1. Estimates in recent periods (early 2026) put average production costs around $80k–$90k per BTC, while price has traded lower (e.g., ~$60k–$70k in stress scenarios).coindesk.com +1
2. When price < marginal cost, most miners lose money on every coin produced.

Miners don't stop instantly—they have sunk costs in hardware and contracts. But prolonged losses trigger action.The Spiral Steps

1. Forced Selling Pressure Begins
   Miners sell newly minted BTC (and often reserves) just to pay electricity bills and stay afloat. This floods the market with supply exactly when demand is already weak. Public miners with debt or investor pressure sell even more aggressively.pymnts.com
2. Hashrate Drops as Machines Shut Down
   Unprofitable miners (especially those with high electricity costs) unplug rigs. Global hashrate falls. This doesn't instantly kill the network—Bitcoin keeps producing blocks—but it signals weakness.beincrypto.com
3. Temporary Network Degradation (Before Adjustment)
   Difficulty readjusts every 2,016 blocks (~2 weeks). Until then, fewer miners mean slower blocks (longer than 10 minutes). Transactions back up, fees spike or confirmations slow dramatically. Users and businesses notice delays or higher costs, eroding confidence.reddit.com
4. Confidence Collapse Amplifies Selling
   1. Lower hashrate makes the network theoretically easier to attack (though still extremely hard in practice).
   2. Media and analysts scream "death spiral," scaring holders, leveraged traders, and institutions.
   3. Corporate treasuries (e.g., MicroStrategy-style holders), ETFs, or loan collateral face margin calls → more forced liquidations.futurism.com +1
   4. Panic cascades: price drops further → more miners capitulate.

5. Bankruptcies and Fire Sales
   Debt-heavy miners go insolvent and dump hardware + BTC holdings at any price. This adds even more supply while removing future mining capacity. The cycle repeats with worsening intensity.blog.mexc.com

Why It Feels Inevitable in Theory (But Hasn't Happened)The loop is self-reinforcing: lower price → more losses → more selling/shutdowns → less security/utility → even lower price. In extreme hypotheticals (e.g., sustained 50%+ crash with high energy prices), it could theoretically freeze the network or drive price toward zero if demand evaporates entirely.
researchblog.coinshares.com
In reality:

1. Difficulty adjustment eventually lowers the bar, making mining profitable again for the most efficient survivors (cheap power, modern ASICs). Hashrate has always recovered after past crashes (2018, 2022).
2. Survivors in low-cost regions (e.g., with stranded energy) keep the network alive.
3. Transaction fees can eventually offset lower block rewards.

Bitcoin has survived multiple cycles where price briefly dipped near or below estimated costs without spiraling to zero. The "death spiral" remains mostly theoretical—a worst-case tail risk if external shocks (regulation, energy crises, macro panic) align perfectly with miner over-leverage.
researchblog.coinshares.com
Bottom line: The spiral isn't guaranteed, but the pathway is clear—miner economics create a natural floor that, if broken hard enough and long enough, can turn into a vicious feedback loop of selling and lost trust. The network's resilience comes from its automatic self-correction, not from immunity to short-term pain.

Next question was this.
Where are we in that scenario right now if bitcoin falls to 50k?

If Bitcoin fell to $50k right now (mid-April 2026, with price currently ~$70k–$72k), we’d be accelerating deep into the early-to-mid stages of the miner capitulation cycle—the self-reinforcing feedback loop I outlined before (forced selling → hashrate drop → confidence erosion). We’re already in mild capitulation territory today, so a drop to $50k would intensify it dramatically, but Bitcoin’s built-in difficulty adjustment would likely prevent a full “death spiral” to zero.
finance.yahoo.com +1


Current Baseline (April 2026)Price: Hovering around $70,900–$73,000 (recent closes ~$71k). It’s already down significantly from 2025 peaks.
finance.yahoo.com +1
Mining costs: Average all-in production costs (electricity + ops + depreciation) are estimated at ~$77k–$88k per BTC for the industry (difficulty regression models and public miner data). Electricity-only breakeven is lower (~$65k–$74k for mid-tier rigs), but most operators are losing money right now. Efficient miners (cheap power <$0.06/kWh + newest ASICs like Antminer S23 series) can stay cash-flow positive lower, potentially down to ~$44k–$50k in ideal cases.
coindesk.com +2
Hashrate & difficulty: Global hashrate ~1.0–1.07 ZH/s (recently down 4–6% QoQ—the first quarterly decline in years). Difficulty is ~139 T and scheduled to drop ~4.8% on April 18 (in ~5–6 days), already reflecting some miner exits.
coinwarz.com +1
Miner status today: Many are operating at losses (~$17k+ per BTC for the average player). We’re seeing shutdowns of older/inefficient rigs, some public miners selling BTC reserves or pivoting to AI, and early capitulation signals (hash ribbons, difficulty drops). But the network is still running—efficient survivors and low-cost regions (e.g., stranded energy) are keeping it alive.
weex.com +1
What Happens If Price Hits $50k (Hypothetical from Here)This would be a ~30% crash from current levels—well below average costs and shutdown thresholds for most hardware:Immediate forced selling ramps up hard (Stage 1 intensification)
Miners sell every newly minted BTC (3.125 per block) + reserves just to cover electricity and debt. Debt-heavy or public miners accelerate liquidations. This adds massive supply pressure exactly when demand is weak.
Hashrate plummets (Stage 2)
Widespread shutdowns: Mid-tier rigs (e.g., Antminer S21 series, which make up a big chunk of hashrate) already have shutdown prices around $69k–$74k. At $50k, a large portion (potentially 30–60% of marginal capacity) goes offline quickly—only the most efficient operators (newest gear + ultra-cheap power) remain online. We’ve already seen hashrate decline; this would supercharge it.
beincrypto.com +1
Temporary network strain before adjustment (Stage 3)
Fewer miners = slower blocks (longer than 10 minutes) until the next difficulty retarget (~every 2 weeks). Transactions could back up and fees spike temporarily. The April 18 adjustment would help, and further drops would follow if hashrate keeps falling—eventually making mining profitable again for survivors.
Confidence hit and secondary selling (Stage 4 risk)
Headlines scream “miner exodus” and “network vulnerability.” This could spook holders, ETF investors, leveraged traders, and corporations → more selling, margin calls, and panic. Some bankruptcies/fire sales of hardware + BTC holdings would add fuel.
Not full collapse (why the spiral self-limits) Efficient miners survive: Low-cost ops in places with stranded/renewable energy keep hashing. Newer ASICs can stay cash-positive near $50k or below in the best cases.
Difficulty adjustment kicks in: This is Bitcoin’s built-in safety valve—costs fall automatically as hashrate drops.
Historical precedent: We’ve seen similar stress (2022, early 2026 dips) without total failure. Hashrate always rebounds once the weak hands are purged.
Survivors + fee revenue eventually stabilize things. Full “death spiral to zero” would require demand to evaporate entirely (unlikely).
Bottom line: At $50k we’d be in the thick of a painful but survivable capitulation phase—not the beginning (we’re already there mildly) and not the end (full network freeze is extremely unlikely). It would feel like 2022 on steroids: heavy miner pain, volatility, and negative headlines, but the network keeps producing blocks thanks to automatic adjustments and the strongest operators. The “floor” created by miner economics gets tested hard, but Bitcoin’s design has proven resilient to these cycles before. A sustained drop this low would likely mark a major bottoming process rather than the end.

So again, not saying this will happen, but this is the mechanism by which it could. The situation with Iran could be the catalyst thats triggers this.

I still consider it unlikely, but as traders we need to consider these things

Just took profits.

Just went long

Stop 70500
Target 77000

Well done on your longs. I have shorting against 76k looking for 50k area locked in my trading mind and then seeing price move up and traders like you taking advantage. Well done indeed

Thank you for kind words, but I just closed at b/e.

Wasn't a trade I was super confident in to begin with, probably over trading. On sidelines for now

sorry bro
but my<
entry<70,830.00
sl<70,443.83
tp<72,512.89

Just went long again, same stop and target as before

I think we're heading up to test this TL above. Have the gap to fill from this weekend, and if thats filled, will be so close to that TL I think it'll test it.

Still have 2 gaps below and many TLs to break, so I still see risk of a big drop, but maybe after 77-79k gets hit.

Congrats on the win Badan!

78400 - 78700 has 3 important lines matching up there. There's a 2.0 retracment, a 1.25 retracement, and a 1.0 extension, as well as that TL i just pointed out.

It might make a brief break of TL and take out the high at 79350, then reverse...a "break and fake". Want to see how the move up unfolds on way there (assuming it does).

A lot of things going on at that spot. Lets see if it goes straight for it

I just took profits.
I might miss out on more, but im tired and want a good night's rest. Ive had a lot of trades in last month where im up similar amount to what I just booked, only to see in evaporate by time I wake up.

So im taking the money and going to bed without having worry about what the market does.

Whatsapp guys
are we Buying aggressively now

I'd be careful. I'm looking for some clues to enter a short, but want to see some selling first. If there's is selling, but it looks weak, might go long instead. On sidelines for now

Just went short

Watching closely, stop at high of day, target unknown

Was watching for reaction off this line this morning.

So far a rejection after taking out the high at 76k. Not a great sign for bulls. Classic break and fake, lets see how next few hours go.