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Make More Money - Eliminate DRAMA 11 replies

Just posting my trades, everyone is welcome but no drama 2 replies

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Gold with No Drama

  • #45,061
  • Apr 11, 2026 3:39pm Apr 11, 2026 3:39pm
4697 -- 4606 is a major demand zone price likely draws into 4703 -- 4698 lows before any bullish expansion that said
a strong breach below 4604 to 4605 nullifies the demand and opens downside continuation
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  • #45,062
  • Apr 11, 2026 7:28pm Apr 11, 2026 7:28pm
BTC Live Trade Setup
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  • #45,063
  • Apr 11, 2026 8:33pm Apr 11, 2026 8:33pm
Quoting Onatoye340
Good day everyone, I am a beginner trader currently studying price action, support and resistance, and moving averages. I would like to ask experienced traders here: What simple strategy helped you when you first started? Which timeframe is best for beginners? How do you control emotions during losing trades? I am committed to learning and improving my trading discipline. I will really appreciate advice from professionals in this group. Thank you.
Here are some good guides created by members:
By GoldGod:
https://www.forexfactory.com/thread/...9#post15606959

By SibiSh:
https://www.forexfactory.com/thread/...0#post15607040
https://www.forexfactory.com/thread/...5#post15608825
In other news: the earth is flat. Aliens built the pyramids. And god exists
  • #45,064
  • Apr 12, 2026 12:37am Apr 12, 2026 12:37am
Quoting babayaga
last thing.., naked chart does it really exist ?!
candlesticks or price itself is an indicator of an assets value so i guess naked charts are just X and Y axis
other then that indicator can sometimes be really helpfull i made my first money in forex using RSI AND MACD (consistently) and that happend after shit ton of backtesting and forward testing without these 2 things nothing can be profitable
  • #45,065
  • Apr 12, 2026 12:49am Apr 12, 2026 12:49am
Quoting Onatoye340
Good day everyone, I am a beginner trader currently studying price action, support and resistance, and moving averages. I would like to ask experienced traders here: What simple strategy helped you when you first started? Which timeframe is best for beginners? How do you control emotions during losing trades? I am committed to learning and improving my trading discipline. I will really appreciate advice from professionals in this group. Thank you.
SUPPORT AND Resistence is a good way to trade If trading on HIGHER TIMEFRAMES FROM h4 to weekly with exicutions at h1
on smaller timeframes 5m to 1h they do work depending on the asset you are trading

but your quesiton for simple stratagy FIRST KNOW WHICH TYPE OF TRADER YOU WANA BE
learn how the market move ( bids and asks , liquidity ) and basic market mechenics
learn to form a NARRATIVE ( this can be best learned by seeing other people and asking questions from experienced people)
and about stratagy try to FIND liquidty and how it moves the market ( liqudity on 4h to 1w)
then learn to trade liqudity using either candlestick patterns along with any entry modle
understand the diffrence between bad trades and good trade and KNOW THAT TRADING IN ITSELF is not about MONEY
if you trade for money you'll get wrecked
trade to be better then yesterday
try to trade demo or backtest for 6 months
dedicate a portion of your time each day towards learnign and implementing the things you learned
and just try to make as many mistakes as you possibly can
  • #45,066
  • Apr 12, 2026 2:03am Apr 12, 2026 2:03am
No deal reached, so we will continue the bearish run it seems
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XM1 All Time Return: 155.6%
  • #45,067
  • Apr 12, 2026 3:53am Apr 12, 2026 3:53am
wonder if it gonna work.., and for how long

Inserted Video


gold xauusdt perp

LBOrderPulse channel

if no, image can be found
https://www.forexfactory.com/thread/...1#post15654261

dolce vita
  • #45,068
  • Apr 12, 2026 4:03am Apr 12, 2026 4:03am
anyway, wanted this weekly chart with MPPs/Floor,DeMark's&Camarilla.., and ichimoku that better see in my next post

4500-5000 area

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dolce vita
  • #45,069
  • Apr 12, 2026 4:06am Apr 12, 2026 4:06am
weekly, ichi, MPPs/mentioned already

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dolce vita
  • #45,070
  • Apr 12, 2026 4:32am Apr 12, 2026 4:32am
if anyone would be so kind to talk a little bit about this..,
COT Report 2026-04-07

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thank you in advance

dolce vita
  • #45,071
  • Apr 12, 2026 4:51am Apr 12, 2026 4:51am
Quoting Pablo218
No deal reached, so we will continue the bearish run it seems {image}
see brother
i forecasted this yesterday
that it would be no more than miracle if deal is done
and miracles come with prophets (highly innocent God oriented people) but here in this world full of deceivers we cant witness the same humanly innocenece
anyways
also i mentioned yesterday that us wants iran to withdraw from all its nuclear projects and so yesterday their ambassador put this point first (which i mentioned yesterday and obviously answer is no )
so now still
my forecast is this war will intensify
oil which dropped its going to shoot
gold could dump as low as 4000 or below
in this situation its better to avoid btc (it too volatile)
  • #45,072
  • Edited 9:16am Apr 12, 2026 5:08am | Edited 9:16am
my maximal "mental" SL was and remains around two hundred pips..,
so usually i fix it around eighty - one hundred twenty.., if it goes from "my trade tool indy"

but, imo, right trade doesn't need more than thirty-forty five pips SL.., no matter how volatile market is..,

so next week, gonna look for "easy money"/right trades.., will try at least

wish you the same

dolce vita
  • #45,073
  • Apr 12, 2026 5:11am Apr 12, 2026 5:11am
Quoting Huzaifa88
{quote} see brother i forecasted this yesterday that it would be no more than miracle if deal is done and miracles come with prophets (highly innocent God oriented people) but here in this world full of deceivers we cant witness the same humanly innocenece anyways also i mentioned yesterday that us wants iran to withdraw from all its nuclear projects and so yesterday their ambassador put this point first (which i mentioned yesterday and obviously answer is no ) so now still my forecast is this war will intensify oil which dropped its going to shoot...
You miss that Trump has a narcissistic personality. But two fold for the US. First off they cannot afford it. It is all printed money. All of it. Second if this war drags on this is a complete loss for him in November. Trump needs this to go away. Iran has way more leverage. Also Iran can fuck with Trump and send drones into places and drag it on.

This war was a stupid mistake.

I like the term innocent God oriented people.
  • #45,074
  • Apr 12, 2026 5:14am Apr 12, 2026 5:14am
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  • #45,075
  • Apr 12, 2026 5:20am Apr 12, 2026 5:20am
Quoting Huzaifa88
{quote} see brother i forecasted this yesterday that it would be no more than miracle if deal is done and miracles come with prophets (highly innocent God oriented people) but here in this world full of deceivers we cant witness the same humanly innocenece anyways also i mentioned yesterday that us wants iran to withdraw from all its nuclear projects and so yesterday their ambassador put this point first (which i mentioned yesterday and obviously answer is no ) so now still my forecast is this war will intensify oil which dropped its going to shoot...
Your forecast was on point brother. I was too optimistic. And yes, 4000 on gold seems realistic for next week.
XM1 All Time Return: 155.6%
  • #45,076
  • Apr 12, 2026 5:28am Apr 12, 2026 5:28am
Quoting babayaga
if anyone would be so kind to talk a little bit about this.., COT Report 2026-04-07 {image} {image} thank you in advance
Just an opinion. As expected hedge funds(the non commercials) are bullish on the long term on gold(which is still a safe heaven). But this week it seems more shorts were added, which means they are either hedging positions or expecting a pullback.
Other than that it seems most of the players are betting on a bearish gold in the next period.
XM1 All Time Return: 155.6%
  • #45,077
  • Apr 12, 2026 6:13am Apr 12, 2026 6:13am
Already said what my opinion for this week, based in probabilities of an weekly pattern, but because people are strugling with trading, more because risk management than other things i decide have a NAKED CHART and catch a last week subject about NY.
So, as i normal do i look for patterns in TF's and sessions...
It take me about half an hour to recognize one with potential... And please don't come here with bullshits about 100 trades and so on...
We need 1st to find a bit of an edge and said it many times above 75% they stay in my radar and will sure help me reading price in the future when one setup is not going as i planned...
At same time if people read careful will find that initial weekly reading start make sense, but is just that, didn't plan nothing for the week.
This is only to show to new traders that they need to do their homework ans start by an edge, then with time and experience you will find more and train your eyes aka experience to adapt or develop what you find with a bit of an edge to be more sharp...
This is the way i have my own patterns, no copy but with work! Is all about probabilities where open/closes matter at those levels and the respective TF the pattern belong.
From the chart below in 15m we already can start paying attention, not only to this one but already to another two and this is what improve price reading.
Safe trades.
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  • #45,078
  • Apr 12, 2026 6:26am Apr 12, 2026 6:26am
Quoting Pablo218
{quote} Just an opinion. As expected hedge funds(the non commercials) are bullish on the long term on gold(which is still a safe heaven). But this week it seems more shorts were added, which means they are either hedging positions or expecting a pullback. Other than that it seems most of the players are betting on a bearish gold in the next period.
thank you

dolce vita
  • #45,079
  • Apr 12, 2026 6:29am Apr 12, 2026 6:29am
XAUUSD – This is how you actually trade price action
Most traders lose here.
They enter too early… or chase the move.
Here’s the shift:
You don’t enter on a level
You don’t enter on a touch
You don’t enter because it “looks good”
You enter on a trigger
What does that mean?
For shorts:
Price reaches resistance (4800–4850)
Takes liquidity (wick above / fake breakout)
Then breaks structure to the downside (BOS)
Only then you look for an entry
For longs:
Price pulls back into support (4750–4730)
Sweeps liquidity below
Then breaks structure to the upside
Only then you engage
Golden rule:
No BOS = no trade
What changed everything for me was simple:
I stopped predicting
and started waiting for confirmation
If you focus on:
trap → then reversal
you stop gambling and start reading the market properly
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  • #45,080
  • Apr 12, 2026 7:30am Apr 12, 2026 7:30am
I’m someone who enjoys researching, and it has already become a habit during my free time. I like creating my own personal analyses, almost like doing mini-thesis. I simply take advantage of the AI tools available today. I’m more interested in understanding what’s really happening..but of course..theres no guaranted at all

DATA SOURCE: Multiple secondary sources (Bloomberg quotes via web, CNBC, Investing.com, Yahoo Finance, FRED, WSJ, etc.) — Bloomberg Terminal direct access unavailable; accuracy not guaranteed as exact BGN/generic closes could not be retrieved in real-time.bloomberg.com


Current time: Sunday, April 12, 2026 (~11:04 UTC). Markets are CLOSED (weekend). Observation window = Daily change from Friday, April 10, 2026 close. No update >12 hours from Friday close + weekend → data is technically STALE per protocol, but Friday closes are used with the required disclaimer.

ANALYSIS BASED ON FRIDAY CLOSE — LIMITED VALIDITY.
1. Price Reality Check (Window: daily close)

-10Y Yield (USGG10YR / US10Y proxy): 4.32% (or 4.317% per some quotes; prev. ~4.293%) → **+2.4 to +3 bps** (sources vary slightly between +0.024 to +0.059; conservative ~+2.4 bps) — BELOW THRESHOLD (≥3.0 bps required for significance).cnbc.com

-DXY: 98.65–98.70 (prev. ~98.82–98.87) → **-0.17%** — SIGNIFICANT (≥0.15%)./bloomberg.com

-Gold (XAUUSD proxy): 4,748–4,753 (prev. ~4,767) → **-0.28% to -0.34%** — SIGNIFICANT (≥0.20%).marketwatch.com

-S&P 500 (SPX): 6,816.89 (prev. 6,824.66) → -0.11% — BELOW THRESHOLD (≥0.50%).cnbc.com

2. Magnitude Veto Status
Gold Change: ~-0.30% → PASS (Threshold: 0.20%).
Veto Active: NO.

3. Regime Evaluation
-Regime A (Rates-Driven): FAILED — 10Y Yield change <3.0 bps threshold (only ~+2.4 bps); no clear opposite Gold move relative to yields with DXY confirmation in same direction as yields.

-Regime B (USD-Driven / FX Flows): MET (partial) — DXY ≥0.15% (down ~0.17%, dollar weakness); Gold ≥0.20% opposite to DXY (Gold also down, wait — actually same direction as DXY move? Dollar down + Gold down = not opposite; both declined). Yields passive/small move. PAIR CONFIRMATION UNAVAILABLE (no full major USD pair data). Fails strict "opposite" for Gold vs DXY.

-Regime C (Risk Sentiment): FAILED — S&P 500 change <0.50% (only -0.11%); Gold and DXY move in same direction with opposite yields for flight-to-quality (small moves overall).

Active Regime: D (CONSOLIDATION / NOISE) — None of A/B/C fully met; small equity move, modest dollar/gold declines without clear opposite driver or risk signal.

Special Notes: PAIR CONFIRMATION UNAVAILABLE; small yield move; weekend data limitations.

4. Cross-Asset Audit
-False Narrative Rejected: "Strong risk-off day driven by geopolitical tensions or inflation fears pushing yields higher and stocks lower while gold rallied as safe haven."
Reason: S&P move was minimal (-0.11%, below threshold), Gold declined (no safe-haven bid), yields barely moved (+~2-3 bps, below significance), and DXY weakened modestly — no clean risk sentiment or rates-driven pattern.

5. Final Trading Bias
Bias: NEUTRAL
Dominant Trigger: No regime fully triggered; Gold magnitude passed but lacked opposing driver to DXY or yields for edge.
Invalidation: Any asset breaking its threshold on next session (e.g., Gold ≥0.20% with clear opposite DXY or S&P ≥0.50% with same-direction Gold/DXY).

Confidence: LOW (weekend stale data, source approximations, no absolute moves).

6. Price Reality Summary (One Sentence)
-"Gold is DOWN because of mild consolidation/no clear macro driver on light Friday action. DXY weakening is the most notable (but modest) move. S&P 500 small decline and yields are noise.

"Protocol strictly followed; no guesses or blended regimes. Next actionable window is Monday open (real-time if session active). If Bloomberg direct closes become available, re-run required.


Additional Geopolitical Statement: Iran–USA Negotiations (Today, April 12, 2026) & Impact on Gold Tomorrow (Monday Open)

What happened today: High-stakes face-to-face negotiations between the US and Iran in Islamabad, Pakistan, collapsed after 21 hours with NO agreement reached. US Vice President JD Vance (leading the delegation) stated Iran refused Washington’s key terms — particularly a long-term commitment to halt nuclear ambitions — and described it as “bad news for Iran.” The talks were aimed at solidifying a fragile two-week ceasefire (announced ~April 7–8). Iran’s side maintained it entered from a position of strength; both delegations have now left without a breakthrough...aljazeera.com

How it can affect Gold tomorrow (Monday, April 13 open):
-The failure keeps the ceasefire fragile and uncertain, sustaining geopolitical risk premium. This typically supports safe-haven demand for gold (bullish bias on Monday open), especially if headlines amplify escalation fears or Strait of Hormuz/Lebanon tensions.

Market Statement
“Following the failed negotiations between the United States and Iran, the market is facing renewed geopolitical uncertainty. However, recent price action suggests that there is no clear risk-off confirmation yet, indicating that the development may already be partially priced in or lacks immediate strength as a dominant catalyst.

The failure keeps the ceasefire fragile and uncertain, sustaining a geopolitical risk premium. This typically supports safe-haven demand for Gold, creating a slight bullish bias on the Monday (April 13) open, especially if headlines begin to amplify escalation risks, including tensions around key regions such as the Strait of Hormuz or Lebanon.

However, if the market interprets the situation as “contained diplomacy” without an immediate return to military escalation, the reaction may remain limited. In this case, Gold could open flat to modestly higher, maintaining a range-bound or consolidation environment rather than a strong directional move.

Early signals from Bitcoin during the Asian session suggest that risk sentiment may already be positioning ahead of traditional markets. This adds a short-term risk-on edge within the current Regime D (Consolidation/Noise), but it does not override the prior price-reality structure observed on Friday.

Going into Monday’s session, the expectation is for initial volatility and potential liquidity-driven moves, particularly during the early Asian and London sessions. Traders should closely monitor the first reactions in Asia, as they may provide early clues on whether the market will shift toward a risk-off or risk-on environment before clearer direction emerges.”

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