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TPO GAPs in all 3 markets.

Oil 15% down today

European stocks soar 4% after U.S.-Iran ceasefire deal; travel stocks lead gains up 7%

I wonder how long this so called 2 weeks pause will last before Trump torpedo's it and make the markets tank again.
(after first tipping his buddies of course)

2 Weeks are finished before you know and with Trump, 2 weeks is a long time without insulting his opponents/change his mind/threatening his enemies again.

MNQ 1st Short try 25.159 last 2 lot
T1 +15p<>20p 3 lot. 2 left
T2 +35p 1 lot
1 left/SL BE
Last lot closed BE

Below 25.150 zone new short try, or after a lower high from todays high

MES & ES short 6825

ES closed +5p 1 lot

MES still working/SL BE zone
Last lot closed BE

Below 6820 new short try or after a lower high from todays high

MYM & YM short 47887

YM closed +35p 1 lot

MYM still working/SL BE
Last lot closed BE

Below 47.800 zone new short try or after a lower high from todays high

MNQ short 25.192

T2 +25/30p 4 lot. 1 left/SL BE

NQ short 1 lot / closed +23p

Good start of a "deal"

Trump threatens tariffs of 50% on countries ‘supplying military weapons to Iran’

 

1. U.S. President Donald Trump said “any and all” goods from countries found to be supplying Iran with weapons would be subject to sanctions.
2. It comes after the U.S. and Iran agreed a two-week ceasefire.
3. Affected countries would be subject to the levy “immediately”, with no “exclusions or exemptions,” he added in a TruthSocial post on Wednesday.

Short again MNQ MES ES

ES closed +6p 1 lot

At BRN now. SP zones 6800 & 25K

Markets pulling back to the GAPs

MNQ short 25.047 last 5 lot
T1 +25/27p 3 lot
T2 +47p 3 lot
2 left
T3 +95p 1 lot
1 left

NQ 1 lot short
Closed +45p at 25K zone

Donald Trump looked at that 10-point proposal and publicly called it "a workable basis on which to negotiate."

Said "almost all of the various points of past contention have been agreed to." That's the President of the United States on Truth Social, doing his little caps lock thing, telling everyone what a tremendous deal he just made.

Pakistan's Prime Minister, the man who actually sat in the room and brokered the deal while Trump was probably watching himself on Fox, announced to the world that the ceasefire applied "everywhere, including Lebanon."


And then Israel killed 254 people in Lebanon in a single fucking day.

So what does JD Vance do? Does he address it? Does he show a single shred of awareness that this administration just blew up its own ceasefire before the ink was dry? Of course he fucking doesn't.

He rocks up to the microphones in Budapest, fresh off his little playdate with Viktor Orban, and delivers this absolute gem: "I think the Iranians thought the ceasefire included Lebanon, and it just didn't. We never made that promise.

The Vice President of the United States, a man who has the charisma of a damp sock and the diplomatic skill of a fucking sledgehammer, just told Iran's leadership they're too stupid to understand the terms of their own proposal.

This isn't diplomacy. This isn't even spin. This is a bloke standing in front of the burning building his boss just lit on fire, telling you it was always on fire, and also that fire isn't real, and also that the people inside should have known the fire extinguisher wasn't part of the deal

Every single step of this war has been a catastrophic fuckup. The launch. The escalation. The Hormuz crisis. The threats to wipe out a civilisation. The deadline extensions that got extended so many times they needed their own fucking calendar.

And now they can't even hold a ceasefire together for 24 hours without their own VP publicly contradicting the mediator, the other party, and the plain fucking text of the agreement his own president endorsed on social media for the whole world to see.

And remember: 254 people in Lebanon are dead today because of this "misunderstanding."
But sure JD. Iran's the one who can't fucking read coming from a guy with the IQ of a toilet brush.

What a fucking clown show.

"Iran Begged For This Ceasefire" — And Other Fairy Tales From The Pentagon's Favourite Fox News Host

Pete Bragseth stood up at that podium, fresh coat of cheap hair gel, bargain bin suit that looked like it was cut from tinfoil, little flag pin polished to perfection, and looked America dead in the eye and said Iran "begged" for this ceasefire.

Begged.

When someone's begging, they're not the ones writing the fucking terms. When someone's begging, they're not the ones dropping a 10-point plan on the table that reads like a list of demands from a country that just won a war. When someone's begging, they don't tell the most powerful military on Earth to go fuck itself. That's called running the table.

They were literally telling tankers to fuck off and come back when they had permission. That's not what begging looks like, Pete. That's what leverage looks like.

Both sides are claiming victory. Except one side is claiming victory from a podium with a fresh haircut, and the other side is claiming victory while writing the terms of the fucking deal.

https://ifloz.substack.com/?utm_sour...m_medium=email

1. The latest broadside comes after Trump announced a 2-week ceasefire after more than a month of fighting with Iran.
2. It was the second time this week that Trump took aim at Greenland and NATO.

In a Truth Social post Wednesday evening stateside, Trump said that:

“NATO WASN’T THERE WHEN WE NEEDED THEM, AND THEY WON’T BE THERE IF WE NEED THEM AGAIN. REMEMBER GREENLAND, THAT BIG, POORLY RUN, PIECE OF ICE!!!”

Trump has taken aim at NATO and Greenland in recent days.“It all began with, if you want to know the truth, Greenland,” Trump told reporters at a White House press conference Monday. “We want Greenland. They don’t want to give it to us. And I said, ‘bye, bye.’”

SnP at 6800 zone

NQ at 25.000 zone

DOW at 48000 zone

All waiting at BRNs and ready to fall of a cliff .....?

MES & ES short 6808

ES closed +5.5p 1 lot

MES still working
Last 3 lot closed at 6795
Below short try again

TPO GAP starts at 6780 zone to 6670. That would be fun.....

Needs to break the 6800 first

MNQ & NQ short 25.009

NQ 1 lot
Closed +32p

MNQ last 3 lot
T1 +15/17p 3 lot
T2 +38p 2 lot
1 left/Closed +37p

Below 24.950 short again or short from 25K zone

Y close at 960/950 zone

TPO GAP: 24.925<>24.425 zone

NQ short again 24.978 1 lot
Closed +19p at -0.5% level/Y close zone

MGC long re entry 4745 last 2 lot

T2 +125p at +0.25% zone
1 left/SL BE
+50p locked in
Closed +50p

TEHRAN—Adding a new wrinkle to the negotiations over the Middle East conflict, on Wednesday Iran declared that it would agree to end the war only if there was regime change in the United States.

“The United States is a rogue state led by an unstable ruler,” the Iranian statement read. “Such a madman must not be allowed to possess nuclear weapons.”

The Islamic Republic’s ultimatum drew immediate and strong support from Greenland, Canada, and 175 other countries.

THE REJECTION BLOC: Israel, Saudi, & UAE
According to Axios, a powerful regional trio has formed to lobby President Trump against the current deal. PM Benjamin Netanyahu, along with the leadership of Saudi Arabia and the UAE, have reportedly urged Trump to reject the proposal.
The Demand: No deal "unless Iran makes major concessions" regarding its regional proxies and ballistic missile program.
The Ally: Senator Lindsey Graham has joined this chorus, warning that a "premature peace" would only allow the IRGC to regroup.

THE DEAL-MAKERS: Vance & Witkoff
Inside the President’s inner circle, a "Pragmatist Wing" is pushing back. VP J.D. Vance and Special Envoy Steve Witkoff have reportedly advised Trump to pursue the deal.
The Logic: They argue that stabilizing the Strait of Hormuz and securing a "Nuclear Freeze" is a massive win that fulfills the "America First" promise of ending "forever wars" before they spiral into a global depression.

THE "TOTAL CEASEFIRE" ANNOUNCEMENT
On X (formerly Twitter), PM Shehbaz Sharif was explicit. He stated that the U.S. and Iran, along with ALL allies, had agreed to an immediate ceasefire:
"The Islamic Republic of Iran and the United States of America... have agreed to an immediate ceasefire everywhere, INCLUDING LEBANON and elsewhere, EFFECTIVE IMMEDIATELY."

THE NETANYAHU DEFIANCE
The ink wasn't even dry on Sharif’s post before Benjamin Netanyahu issued a unilateral "Correction."
The Conflict: Netanyahu announced that the agreement DOES NOT extend to Lebanon.
The Fact: While the U.S. and Iran have paused direct strikes, Israeli F-35s are currently continuing "Deep Strikes" against Hezbollah in Beirut. This creates a massive diplomatic crisis: Can a "Global Ceasefire" exist if Israel refuses to stop the fight in the Levant?

If Israel continues to bomb Lebanon while Iran claims the ceasefire is "Universal," the "Islamabad Accord" could collapse before the Friday summit even begins.

As the "Islamabad Accord" was being finalized, a "Flash" secure line was opened between Mar-a-Lago and Jerusalem. Sources describe the conversation as the most "hostile" exchange between the two leaders since the start of Operation Epic Fury.

Israeli strikes rained down on residential areas and estates in central Beirut today without warning