Gold with No Drama

Use this...
When you see a body candle close and not beeing taped 25% lower is a strong trend.
Don't use as strategy but to know the conditions, at some point they will average. This based in open and closes, not volume, volatility or support and resistances.
Look always higher tf too...
Less than 15m is gambling... 15m already is at limit...

And don't forget timing, 3/4am Ny is cooking time... Untill don't break ny rarely go anywhere.

At the moment average price is 5175.750 that others will call fvg...

why too much lines and drawing on the screen,

today is unemployment claim

Need extra day...to take back my money....huff

Today open will be the key...

Liquifity area 5150_65( edit)

Buying to 5220 then selling...

Price averaged, not 1-0 this time, had my BE with bad conditions, close to early 2nd position lol
This stays BE for now untill they booste me...


EDIT: But is clear 5176.180 pre ny macro price is something to do it, is not random they met together...

My bad, to many prices and tf's at the moment, the price was 5188.000
So we can really indeed go lower, don't ask me where i take 5176 but is because have meaning...
This mean we reject price and original break downside is in play.
If i get people wrong, sorry, i didn't take advantage either of my mistake...
But i like to see what was missing me...

1h is in a strong trend, so don't give nothing for granted, and is what is doing, averaging price, without close below no way we can go lower, and not forget london window...
I am done for london if they don't breakout this hours...
Safe trades.

Pa now , care

The next 7 days in Iran will determine if we face stagflation or a total global recession

Provided by Dow Jones Mar 12, 2026, 6:31:00 AM
By Matt Gertken

Your portfolio probably isn't ready for the Iran conflict's escalation

Gasoline prices above $4 a gallon generally prompt the White House to change behavior.

Iran has an interest in prolonging the economic and political pain to convince Trump to retreat. It does not have an interest in getting bombed into the Stone Age.

America's "goldilocks" economy is over. The next seven days of the Iran conflict will set the stage for stagflation or global recession.

Since the U.S.-China trade truce in Geneva last May, the U.S. unemployment rate stabilized at 4.4%. Inflation fell to 2.4%, albeit higher than the Federal Reserve's 2% target. Treasury yields fell from 4.37 to 4.14. Stocks SPX DJIA soared by 17% and are only down 1% this year so far. The U.S. dollar DXY softened.

Yet economic policy-makers are neither omniscient nor omnipotent. The economy eventually cools down or heats up too much. In January and February, several signs pointed to slowing growth.

Now let's add a military conflict in the vital chokepoint of the global economy - the Strait of Hormuz.

If the U.S. and Iran could agree to cease-fire, energy flows would resume - at least partially. Households and companies would still face somewhat higher commodity prices trickling down to food and essentials. But they would avoid a sustained period of oil prices (CL00) (CL.1) above $100 a barrel.

That number translates to $4 a gallon at the gas pump - a price that weighed on the economy and approval ratings of Presidents Barack Obama and Joe Biden. Gasoline prices at that level prompt the White House to change behavior.

Historically, a doubling of the oil price coincides with a global recession. In today's terms, that is $120-$140 a barrel. Brent crude brushed the bottom of that range earlier this week.

That led President Donald Trump to declare the war in Iran "very complete, pretty much." He hopes to conclude military operations rapidly, of course, to avoid higher oil prices ahead of November's midterm elections.

Oil dropped on these remarks on Tuesday and equities bounced - even though the president was just jawboning. The conflict rages on.

Iran faces a risk to regime survival and is not playing along with Trump's signature "Art of the Deal" - at least not right away.

The reason for market complacency is well known. Ever since Trump's tariff retreat one week after "liberation day" in 2025, investors have assumed they could ignore the president's obstreperous tactics because he would presumably reverse course when the going got tough.

They're learning otherwise. Iran faces a risk to regime survival and is not playing along with Trump's signature "Art of the Deal" - at least not right away.

Iran had many chances to choose peace, chiefly after the U.S. and Israel attacked in 2025. Instead Iran chose hostilities. The regime apparently believed that its only chance at survival was to play the victim at home; bombings would generate nationalism and suppress political dissent.

On Tuesday, the Islamic Republic attacked the largest refinery in the United Arab Emirates, reportedly began laying mines in the narrow corridors of the Strait of Hormuz and traded threats with Trump about attacking U.S. ships in that vital passageway.

The appointment of Mojtaba Khamenei to suceed his father as Iran's supreme leader also reinforces the regime's interest in fighting back.

Knowing Americans' low tolerance for economic pain, Khamenei and his controllers in the Iranian Revolutionary Guards will seek to consolidate power by standing up for the country against the foreign bullies.

Of course, there is a limit to how far they can push back. Iran has an interest in prolonging the economic and political pain to convince Trump to retreat. It does not have an interest in getting bombed into the Stone Age.

The only way to resume shipping traffic without a larger oil shock is to negotiate.

The U.S., for its part, can clear the strait and remove Iran's leverage. But not if it wants to avoid a greater oil shock. The only way to resume shipping traffic without a larger shock is to negotiate.

Once talks begin, Iran will have fought the U.S. to a standstill. It will seem stronger than ever at home. It will refuse to renounce the right to enrich uranium, as it did before, having proven it can survive.

Without Iranian concessions, conflict could reignite just before the U.S. midterm election, when Iran's leverage peaks, or just after, when Trump becomes unshackled.

And this is an optimistic outlook. Given the lack of trust, negotiations may never resume.

There's currently a 70% chance of escalation and longer oil disruption. What should investors do?

What should investors do?

Odds favor a prolonged oil shock, given the dynamic described above: If the U.S. aims for regime change, Iran will close the strait for longer (24% chance). If the U.S. aims for talks, Iran will refuse permanent concessions (46%). That's a 70% chance of escalation and longer oil disruption.

Only if the U.S. destroys all of Iran's capabilities while preventing any further harm to traffic (16% chance) - or cajoles Iran into abandoning its nuclear program forever (14%) - will the conflict de-escalate in time to pacify global financial markets as they stand right now. That's a 30% chance.

Oil and gold (GC00) still have limited upside. A shock that harms global growth will weigh on both assets. Meanwhile, the global equity rotation out of U.S. assets will keep reversing, at least temporarily. Defensive sectors like consumer staples and healthcare should outperform cyclicals, excluding energy.

Whether the economy proves stagflationary or recessionary will depend on the intensity and duration of the oil price surge. If U.S.-Iran negotiations come together fast, investors should favor equities and commodities over bonds. If they do not, upgrade recession odds and buy Treasuries regardless of fiscal concerns.

Matt Gertken is chief geopolitical strategist at BCA Research.

More: There's no policy response that can stop the rise in oil prices: Carlyle's Currie

Also read: Defense stocks are the market's newest safe havens - and this ETF is a pure play

-Matt Gertken

This content was created by MarketWatch, which is operated by Dow Jones & Co. MarketWatch is published independently from Dow Jones Newswires and The Wall Street Journal.

(END) Dow Jones Newswires

03-11-26 2131ET

hello everyone , so this is my chart on xag/usd on the 15MTf . briefly breaking the chart down , the colored lines are fib lines acting sup/ res lines where overlapping fibs are high conflucencing support zones , judging from this chart , what’s the probability of price sweeping the trend line liquidity at 82.45 and filling the imbalance at 81.5 which is coincidentally the overlapping 61.8 bullish support zone

i’m new here and this is my first post , thank you all .

Hopefully This Asian bullish expansion may end around 5196 (yesterday NY high). waiting for a valid bearish set up there

Took a small short few mins ago, maybe should've held it a bit longer. But it's okay, will look for more trades in NY.

Today’s Bias: Long

• Long Zone
Buyers took 5150 back, and the current battle is 5150 vs 5200.
There’s only one long zone for now, supported by the broken high in Asia.

• Short Scenarios
First plan:
The open price is still with the sellers as long as 5180 holds.
If 5180 fails, it flips and creates a new long zone for buyers, including the open price.
(Open price is playable for me only if a fake breakout shows.)

Second plan:
The close high in Asia is still cooking and hasn’t been respected yet.
It needs to be respected before NY open.

• Flip Condition
I flip short only if 5170 fails.

5175 is a key for today trading.., imo.., Deal has mentioned 5176 already.., thank you
in addition.., if someone needs
5158 - is a middle of daily right now & 38.2% Fib of last week/symbolic & quite helpful, imo

hi,
daily range by DeMark’s R1&S1
5199.16
5125.18 - been tested already during asia.., and here our middle of weekly (!!!) - really pay attention to

some extreme/possible “no return” point if gold wants break something for real
5256
5108

happy trading



p.s.looking for long today.., doesn’t mean that i won’t scalp/short..,

#gold update



So… are you swimming in money or just in hopes and dreams?

5116 is DPP/Classic /10.03/ missed
just in case..,

Update:
Executed the short based on the 5‑minute candle, and closed the position after 30 minutes when it failed to complete the fake breakout.

if anybody is watching/trading crude besides gold
these two assets have inverse/negative correlation.., but there are days/some special.., when they perform in unison

just to pay attention to

expected area....for real or for liquidity.....

gold really is not acting right recently. Must be all this confusion over the conflict and the mixed messages we're getting from various governments. On top of that, uncertainty around the dollar and the oil price. (In other words: I am getting fried right now )

for now
5165-75th , for reference.., imo