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  • #1,901
  • Mar 7, 2026 1:51pm Mar 7, 2026 1:51pm
Final thing about hyperliquid, many countries including USA traders not supposed to be allowed to trade on hyperliquid. Gotta trade on hyperliquid through vooi.io to get around that and protect yourself
  • #1,902
  • Mar 7, 2026 7:19pm Mar 7, 2026 7:19pm
Quoting phelven
How do you all trade BTC USD? Which broker do you use? I am new to this type of Crypto trading.
It depends where you are from.

The best places to trade crypto in my country are: Binance (perpetual futures or spot), Aster DEX, Hyperliquid, Quantfury, some forex brokers such as Exness, Moneta.

But trading crypto on forex brokers are one of the worst options available, especially if not trading Bitcoin, because the spread is huge.
  • #1,903
  • Mar 8, 2026 9:27am Mar 8, 2026 9:27am
Just closed out the short at b/e. Didn't get the big drop yet, and I can see it going either way at the moment. Still biased short, but there is a looming trendline above and we might go take that out. Too hard for me to predict right now so im flat.
  • #1,904
  • Mar 8, 2026 9:38am Mar 8, 2026 9:38am
hey zappa i want to thank you for the updates, i have been following, in my case im still keeping the short but i may chang that depending on what happens this evening
  • #1,905
  • Mar 8, 2026 10:39am Mar 8, 2026 10:39am
Just went long with stop at 65000. I think the risk of a big drop before CME open is minimal at this point. The entire move so far has been persistent, but fairly weak. I expected momentum to pick up strongly if the move was destined for new lows, but that hasn't happened.

The breakout then fake out is a pattern we see a lot in bitcoin, but I think many traders are onto it right now. That might mean its a fake fake out.

There's no denying the bull moves we had to break out in the first place were impulsive and powerful. Sellers looking kind of exhausted now. If it turns here could be a big move north
  • #1,906
  • Mar 8, 2026 10:44am Mar 8, 2026 10:44am
Quoting Noble6David9
hey zappa i want to thank you for the updates, i have been following, in my case im still keeping the short but i may chang that depending on what happens this evening

You're welcome. Just having a little fun posting, haven't posted in years. Dont know how long I'll continue to do as it is a little burdensome to keep updating when changes to plan occur (as they almost always do!), but happy to share some thoughts.
  • #1,907
  • Mar 8, 2026 11:20am Mar 8, 2026 11:20am
If it turns here, this will be a spot to watch out for and possibly take profits. That spot also coincides with the CME gap from beginning of February
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  • #1,908
  • Mar 8, 2026 2:43pm Mar 8, 2026 2:43pm
Growing more confident in this trade by the minute. I can see something like this playing out.

Forecasts like these very rarely go exactly as planned, but once in a while they do, and I still think it's a good practice to try and visualize what could happen and think about WHY the little turns would happen in those spots, as well as how the market will try to trick traders every step of the way
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  • #1,909
  • Mar 8, 2026 6:24pm Mar 8, 2026 6:24pm
Nice scary move once CME opened. I should've known they wouldn't let them off easy either. Got my stop at 65000 for a reason. 63000 is safer, but not sure i want to still be long if 65000 breaks. Its going to have to take it if it wants my money.

Looking for missed clues I see i should've given more weight to the broke trendline. A pattern i see a lot on smaller timeframes is a break of a trendline followed by taking out the next 2 highs/lows and coming right up to the next one before reversing for the bigger move (see chart).

Now I aint out of the woods by a long shot, but I still think ive got a good shot here. If I get stopped well that sucks and I'll take a minute or 2 to see where I went wrong, but theres always another opportunity right around the corner. Still feeling good about this trade though that selling at CME open did have my sphincter tight!
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  • #1,910
  • Mar 8, 2026 9:57pm Mar 8, 2026 9:57pm
This bearish pin on the weekly candles....I think the boys are pulling out all the stops on this one. Between this and a fake of a fake out. This really might be the bottom.

Now maybe this goes just a little lower and I get stopped and proven wrong. Certainly possible and maybe even probable, but if not this is actually pretty funny to me the games theyre playing to trick us.
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  • #1,911
  • Mar 8, 2026 11:40pm Mar 8, 2026 11:40pm
Quoting Zappa
This bearish pin on the weekly candles....I think the boys are pulling out all the stops on this one. Between this and a fake of a fake out. This really might be the bottom. Now maybe this goes just a little lower and I get stopped and proven wrong. Certainly possible and maybe even probable, but if not this is actually pretty funny to me the games theyre playing to trick us. {image}
Im a noob trader but at this point i just trail the stop loss, i have seen to many trades come to hunt that initial stop loss and its eating my funds...
  • #1,912
  • Mar 9, 2026 4:36am Mar 9, 2026 4:36am
Quoting Zappa
{quote} I like it. Super tight stop loss and it might actually work out. If its going to turn, should probably happen from right about here.
Stop loss hit. 0.01 lot around -$4.

Which Timeframe you trade Mr.Zappa ! We shall discuss more.
Thanks !

Do we have any live discussion platform ( For ex. Telegram ) ?
  • #1,913
  • Mar 9, 2026 7:32am Mar 9, 2026 7:32am
Quoting prave0en
{quote} Stop loss hit. 0.01 lot around -$4. Which Timeframe you trade Mr.Zappa ! We shall discuss more. Thanks ! Do we have any live discussion platform ( For ex. Telegram ) ?

I watch all timeframes. Sometimes I go for big moves, other times much smaller moves are targeted. Just depends on the structure. This time of year theres usually bigger moves being made.
  • #1,914
  • Mar 9, 2026 8:16am Mar 9, 2026 8:16am
The short-term technical outlook has begun to present a slightly more readable picture. The spot Bitcoin price, which started the week around $66,000, was trading above $68,000 at the time of writing. If the $68,500–$69,000 resistance level is breached, the $71,000–$71,400 range could be targeted again. However, if the first resistance range (68,500-69,000) cannot be overcome, we may see a pullback to around 65,500. If the correlation with oil prices continues to weaken, these losses could deepen, causing the price to fall to the 62,500 level last tested on 24 February. For these possible scenarios, news flows containing more evidence about the direction of the war will be decisive.
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Sermet
  • #1,915
  • Mar 9, 2026 11:03am Mar 9, 2026 11:03am
The similarities in structure from this bear market to the one in 2021-2022 are pretty wild. Many traders have noticed this and are expecting it to continue, which would mean a huge drop from here.

But remember.....its never fucking easy....

I think this is yet another ploy to get traders to do the exact opposite of what they should be doing.

I expect more buying from here and momentum to pick up as traders begin to realize they were had and either take the loss or get liquidated.

A move back to 65600 would void this theory.
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  • #1,916
  • Mar 9, 2026 12:41pm Mar 9, 2026 12:41pm
Quoting Zappa
Targeting 55k again Hyperliquid is awesome. 24/7 trading. No outages, great spreads and liquidity, high leverage available. You need to fund a Rabby account with USDC through arbitum network
Quoting BlueKnight
{quote} It depends where you are from. The best places to trade crypto in my country are: Binance (perpetual futures or spot), Aster DEX, Hyperliquid, Quantfury, some forex brokers such as Exness, Moneta. But trading crypto on forex brokers are one of the worst options available, especially if not trading Bitcoin, because the spread is huge.
Thank you to both of you.
  • #1,917
  • Mar 9, 2026 12:48pm Mar 9, 2026 12:48pm
It seems BTC/USD is somewhat slow, awaiting Trump's speech later today (in about three hours). How do you expect the market to move based on this?

I'm still new to this, but my opinion:

If he keeps going strong on Iran (it seems this is more likely), BTC USD will be bearish or at least keep going mostly laterally.
If he goes slow on Iran, BTC USD will be bullish for a few hours.
  • #1,918
  • Mar 9, 2026 3:50pm Mar 9, 2026 3:50pm
Quoting phelven
It seems BTC/USD is somewhat slow, awaiting Trump's speech later today (in about three hours). How do you expect the market to move based on this? I'm still new to this, but my opinion: If he keeps going strong on Iran (it seems this is more likely), BTC USD will be bearish or at least keep going mostly laterally. If he goes slow on Iran, BTC USD will be bullish for a few hours.
I think when the news broke that USA attacked Iran and bitcoin failed to make a new low was very telling. When markets are primed for one direction, they will shake off bad news like its nothing.

You have to think like the big players with billions to buy or sell in a market with only so much liquidity. If they want to buy a large amount without pushing the market too far, they need people to sell to them. They are watching the same charts we are and they know all the things traders are looking for...patterns, trendlines, candlestick patterns, news expectations, etc. They use these tools against us so we will buy when they're selling and reverse.

There are "hot spots" in each market where liquidity lies. They know exactly where these spots are and target them.

For example, let's say theres a big player with 1 billion to play with. The market is trading at $100,000. The big player (BP) sees theres 50 million dollars of liquidity at 115,000. Now he doesn't want to push the market himself to 115k, he wants to "nudge" it there. He will buy up any selling around 100k and help it trend towards 115k. Around 110k traders get excited and start buying pushing to 115k where many stop orders and buy orders are. Once it reaches 115k and those orders hit, he will exit the trade and probably even go short and all the sudden the markets tanks.

Its a bit more complicated than that, but thats the jist of it.

There are fundamental factors that determine the longer term moves, but even then there is always a hunt for liquidity for big players.

So I believe we have to think like a BP if we dont want to end up being their exit liquidity over and over again
  • #1,919
  • Mar 9, 2026 6:11pm Mar 9, 2026 6:11pm
Real time example of what im talking about in post above.

Lets go back to this last week's candle...a bearish pin! Very bearish sign says the textbooks. A break of the high would be where a trader who is short would put their stops presumably if they are trading based off this candle. That might not necessarily be the target for a BP, but it should help push prices higher for a larger target.

So today we see the market gently trending higher with trendline below enticing any other traders to try to short it expecting a break. Its a valid concern for me and im watching it closely, but I think it might not be broken just yet. I think we'll get a big move north before that line is broken later on, but I could be wrong because this is never fucking easy. There is also a trendline above that I do believe will be broken also adding to the confusion.

Now that weekly bearish pin candle is not the only thing going on. I mentioned some of the other major patterns Im seeing , but this is just one example. The BPs want to give traders time to sell/go short before the surprise. They are buying what is being sold. Once the selling has dried up they'll give a good nudge and let the traders push it the rest of the way where they'll sell at higher prices.

Now with all that I said, again I could be wrong, and part of making money as a trader is acceptance that no matter how convinced you are that the market will go your way, you still could be wrong and you have to protect yourself. So if the that trendline below does break (as in it heads there right now) depending on the price action on 1-minute chart (is volume soft or strong?) I might get out and take whatever profit I have. There's also the chance that it simply retests that trendline before rocketing off too. Again..never easy
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  • #1,920
  • Mar 9, 2026 6:23pm Mar 9, 2026 6:23pm
I like to invert charts, can see things clear sometimes.

Here is inverted 1-minute chart. This looks like a low volume move, as would be expected for this time of day. The previous move, while not big, did have some teeth. So im not too worried about that trendline below (above in chart...remember its inverted)..yet.

Another thing that could happen is the price drifts sideways for a while "breaking" the trendline below, but im not worried about that either.
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