GOLD >5035
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Price Action & Order Flow (Gold|Silver|Copper)
- #213
- Feb 14, 2026 3:05pm Feb 14, 2026 3:05pm
- Joined Aug 2007 | Status: Trader | 3,199 Posts
Hey Duksi,,,
I was solely focused on ES this past week...Only looked at the gold charts a few times.
From what I understand that flash crash of $180 or so on Thurs was just a stop loss cascade.
Fueled by the new CME change from fixed dollar based margins to percentage based margins
and then they just recently increased those again.
As price pushed up during the week I think traders just got margin thin and then the dam broke.
Manipulated by the CME and big players who then steeped in at value/vwap with a boatload of buyside liquidity
Just my retail amateur simple basic thoughts
But many factors obviously in play. All those bounces the past week off of
the 1SD and then Thur thats where the damn broke...smashing thru the 1SD...quite the move.
The CME is trying to curtail excessive speculation and perhaps they so another increase in margin ?
For me I'm staying away from Gold for the time being... I prefer the ES and I cant justify risking the margins
for GC and dealing with the applying appropriate risk with the volatility. It's a beast let alone Silver wow lol,,,,
Did I see that coming ? no not at all.. At least not that violent of a move...I think we can normally expect
a reversion to vwap especially with that extended time outside of 1SD..If I was trading GC and if price
broke thru 1SD held below and retested. I maybe would have shorted as a reversion play..but big maybe.
and it would be small size in the current environment.
As for getting into the mind or intent ? of the Big players...hmmm well we saw there intent with their
absorption at monthly vwap.. Have to love the VWAP for what it reveals... But I know you are very well
aware of how that all works... How about COT data ? For a bigger picture view of their intent ?
I do know that there are retailers who track the weekly data and use it effectively...
Cheers !
I was solely focused on ES this past week...Only looked at the gold charts a few times.
From what I understand that flash crash of $180 or so on Thurs was just a stop loss cascade.
Fueled by the new CME change from fixed dollar based margins to percentage based margins
and then they just recently increased those again.
As price pushed up during the week I think traders just got margin thin and then the dam broke.
Manipulated by the CME and big players who then steeped in at value/vwap with a boatload of buyside liquidity
Just my retail amateur simple basic thoughts
But many factors obviously in play. All those bounces the past week off of the 1SD and then Thur thats where the damn broke...smashing thru the 1SD...quite the move.
The CME is trying to curtail excessive speculation and perhaps they so another increase in margin ?
For me I'm staying away from Gold for the time being... I prefer the ES and I cant justify risking the margins
for GC and dealing with the applying appropriate risk with the volatility. It's a beast let alone Silver wow lol,,,,
Did I see that coming ? no not at all.. At least not that violent of a move...I think we can normally expect
a reversion to vwap especially with that extended time outside of 1SD..If I was trading GC and if price
broke thru 1SD held below and retested. I maybe would have shorted as a reversion play..but big maybe.
and it would be small size in the current environment.
As for getting into the mind or intent ? of the Big players...hmmm well we saw there intent with their
absorption at monthly vwap.. Have to love the VWAP for what it reveals... But I know you are very well
aware of how that all works... How about COT data ? For a bigger picture view of their intent ?
I do know that there are retailers who track the weekly data and use it effectively...
Cheers !
Master your Mind,,,Master the Market
