Bitcoin (BTCUSD)

I like your idea; I’m watching those same levels (86,000 – 84,000) for a reaction and confirmation. I missed the initial rejection for the short, so I'm staying patient now.

It worked. Take profit hit.
Thanks to all who bought the support.

Nobody has anything to say?

I was right:

Buy BTC at 75500!!!
If I'm right, from here it goes to 130,000 for this year, without margin, money down. It doubles in a year. Minimal risk. If it's with margin, it's hard to say where to put the stop loss because there are chances it could go to 70,000 and still go up.
Selling Gold can also be a transfer to Bitcoin, who knows. That's what I would do, after all BTC is Digital Gold, right?

bought spot bitcoin at around 78k. if my curse continues, this could go down to 50k or lower. LOL

I see a rise to 90,000 in days ahead and a further dip to 50,000 in October 2026, which is when it will make the final low of this year.

And that is possible, it would even be healthier.
On one type of analysis model, 85 is the key to the downward momentum, if it is rejected strongly or quickly from 85 then we go to 50,000. However, in 2020 it was at 5000, and the whole current trend has no consistent correction, it does not get us all in the boat towards 250,000.
On another type of analysis, on the whole trend starting from 2020 it was rejected in the fall at support or resistance every time, the big support for the up trend held, that's why I think that the area at 70,000 which is obviously a big support might hold.
I think that now, both options are possible 50/50, it depends on the immediate reaction from 85, or 90 like you say. If the big sharks don't have the patience to wait for 50, they can enter from here.

In simple terms, after 13 or A, came 7 for B and 17 for C.
We had from start of the trend, first impuls 1 to 7 and corection more than 80% at 1,5. Then 1-7-5-10-7-13 and now correction to 7. Can be lower to 5? sure, normally for more then 80% correction we go to 3. I thing 7 its first entry with break at 9 before, that mean no 7 waves down, only 5, double bottom at 7 for support long.

BTC is still considered at the beginning, it is still being adopted. The laws have just appeared and are still to come. It also depends on the political situation now, wars and majors geopolitical shifts. Anyway, it s good to have it here and maybe lower at 5 for a good start long. I think it's the only safe haven for anyone.

Sellers can try. It won't be easy though. I wonder who is selling Bitcoin at this price. Definitely not an average holder.
Go Bitcoin! Go!

started a wave count here in 1h on fresh rsi extreme lows - very premature and subject to change - lets try find this low

it looks like the whole crypto market has taken a hit - question is why?

lets see what my a.i has to say -

What happened around the time of the Btc selloff?

Here’s what was going on in that short window when BTC peaked and then sold off.
Peak: BTC made its high (~$126,250) in early October 2025, then turned down.
Decisions / events in that few‑weeks span:
1. Oct 29 – Fed meeting and Powell’s message

1. Fed cut 25bp (to 3.75–4%).

1. Powell said a December cut is “not a foregone conclusion” and “far from it”, and that there were “strongly differing views” on the Committee.

1. He said the Fed was “driving in the fog” because of the government shutdown (no CPI, no key data) and that the Fed should “slow down”.

1. Two dissents: one voter wanted a bigger cut (50bp), another wanted no cut – first time since 2019. So the decision wasn’t just “we cut”; it was “we cut once, but we’re not committed to more, and we’re divided.”

2. Oct 1 – Nov 12 – Government shutdown

1. No October CPI (and other data missing). So the December rate decision would be made without the main inflation read.

1. That’s uncertainty right when the market was at the high: “we don’t know the data, so we’re not going to promise more cuts.”

3. Nov 19 – FOMC minutes

1. Minutes from the October meeting were released.

1. “Many participants” thought it would be appropriate to keep rates unchanged for the rest of the year.

1. So the decision (or at least the revealed stance) was: no December cut, and possibly no more cuts in 2025.

1. Odds of a December cut dropped from ~95–98% to around 50% (or lower in some measures, e.g. 32%).

4. Institutional reaction

1. In November, Bitcoin spot ETFs had their worst outflows on record (~$3.79B). So the decision by allocators in that same few weeks was: reduce crypto exposure.

So in that narrow window, the things that would have moved the market were:

1. Oct 29: The Fed cut, but Powell’s message was “don’t count on another cut; we’re slowing down; we’re divided.” That’s the pivot from “easing continues” to “easing on hold” – right when BTC was at or just past its high.

1. Nov 19: The minutes made that pivot concrete: many officials wanted rates unchanged for the rest of the year.

1. Shutdown: No CPI → no clarity → Fed explicitly choosing to wait.

1. Result: Risk assets (including BTC) repriced from “more cuts coming” to “no more cuts for now,” and institutions cut exposure (ETF outflows).

So the answer: the decisions in that few‑weeks span were Fed communication (Powell Oct 29 + minutes Nov 19) that easing was pausing, plus institutional decisions to reduce BTC exposure. That’s what was happening right when the market started selling off from the highest point.

Is there anything else that could have moved it?

Yes. Beyond the Fed/shutdown/ETF story, these could also have moved it in that window:
Macro

1. Dollar and yields: DXY back above 100, Treasury yields rising → risk-off, less appetite for high‑beta assets like BTC.

1. Data: Weak jobs and manufacturing (e.g. 9th straight month of contraction) → “soft landing” doubt, more caution.

1. Stocks: Most of BTC’s November drop happened during US hours, in line with equity weakness → same risk‑off impulse as stocks.

Crypto‑specific / flow

1. Oct 10 liquidation spike: The tariff shock triggered ~$19B in liquidations; that forced selling and deleveraging carried into November.

1. Whale / long‑term selling: Reports of ~815k BTC (~$79B) sold by long‑term holders in that period, and a large whale offloading ~$1.3B in late Oct/early Nov. Often framed as profit‑taking around $100k (psychological target). So decisions by big holders to reduce or cash out.

1. Mid‑cycle vs whales: VanEck noted the sell‑off was led by mid‑cycle wallets while the oldest whales held; so it wasn’t “everyone panic,” but a specific cohort deciding to sell (e.g. profit‑take or rebalance).

Technical / structure

1. Break of 200‑day SMA (around Oct 17) → systematic/CTA and stop‑loss selling.

1. Liquidity: Thinner books into the holiday period → same order flow moved price more.

1. Sentiment: Fear/panic metrics moved to “extreme fear” → more retail and leveraged players selling into the move.

Summary
So on top of Fed (Powell + minutes) and ETF outflows, other things that could have moved it in that few weeks: dollar/yields and weak US data, the Oct 10 liquidation cascade, large and long‑term holders deciding to sell (profit‑taking / $100k target), break of key technical level, and thinner liquidity + sentiment amplifying the move. The “decision” angle you care about shows up in Fed communication, institutional ETF redemptions, and whale / long‑term holder selling — all in that same short window.

guys any idea on selling to 70 k ??

not sure on the strategy but this is seriously what i see when i look at 1h and all the ways it can go, choppy mess

You are Killing!

At last...
We have arrived...
Long.

I appreciate your courage. I am short for now. Entry at US$ 78,304.95.

Edit:

Attached Image (click to enlarge)

Take profit hit.

“Can someone explain why this trade went into loss? Am I still doing analysis at a basic level?”

Are you trading 1 MINUTE chart?

BTC is looking to carve out an H&S bottom (Head and Shoulders) on the H1. The recent dump was a bit too overextended, so the extension is screaming for a mean reversion. I’ve decided to nibble a bit here and long the dip with a small starter position.

Long term spot buy.

Me too, at 50k