Gold (XAUUSD)

Continuation sell on XAU but still looking for a solid buy block to the upside gg

The current H4 close of gold will be the game-decider........;

Gold Market Analysis - XAU/USD Prices Rebound After Sharp Correction

Gold prices (XAU/USD) have shown a notable recovery today after experiencing a steep correction over the past seven trading sessions. The precious metal had reached a lifetime high of $4381.60 per ounce on October 20, but subsequently declined more than 11%, touching an intraweek low near $3890 range - a loss of nearly $490 within a week.

This decline was primarily attributed to aggressive profit-taking, rising U.S. Treasury yields, and a stronger U.S. dollar. However, after such a sharp drop, the market is now witnessing renewed buying interest and short-covering, supporting prices in the near term.
Key Drivers Behind the Price Movement

Profit Booking After Record Highs
The rapid rise in gold prices to record levels had encouraged speculative buying in the previous weeks. Once gold reached overbought conditions technically, traders began unwinding positions, leading to a swift correction. The recent up move appears to be a technical rebound driven by profit booking by short-sellers and value buying near key support levels.
U.S. Dollar and Treasury Yields
The dollar index strengthened sharply last week, weighing on gold prices, as higher U.S. yields made non-yielding assets like gold less attractive. However, with yields stabilizing and some weakness returning in the dollar, gold has regained mild traction.
Safe-Haven Demand
Despite the correction, underlying safe-haven demand remains intact amid persistent geopolitical tensions and global economic slowdown concerns. This factor continues to provide a cushion to gold prices on declines.
Technical Factors
From a technical standpoint, $3870–$3900 appears to be a strong support zone, with the 50-day moving average holding firmly. A sustained move above $3950–$3980 could trigger further short covering toward $4000 - $4100 in the coming sessions. On the downside, a break below $3850 could extend weakness toward $3780.

Outlook and Forecast
Given the current setup, gold prices are likely to see a technical rebound in the short term, supported by profit booking and renewed safe-haven flows. The recovery could extend by $120-$150 from current levels if global risk sentiment remains cautious and the dollar consolidates.
However, investors should remain alert to key macroeconomic cues - including upcoming U.S. employment data, inflation reports, and Federal Reserve commentary - as these could heavily influence gold’s next directional move.

Conclusion
Gold’s recent correction was a healthy pullback after its sharp rally to record highs. The current rebound is primarily driven by profit booking, short-covering, and technical support buying. While short-term recovery seems likely, medium-term trends will depend on how the dollar and bond yields behave in the weeks ahead.

Key Levels to Watch
Support: $3850 / $3780
Resistance: $3980 / $4020 / $4050

It's a scalping day for sellers.........

This Buy Scalping Trade was valid.......

A buying opportunity is setting up on Gold, if we get market structure on the lower time frames. Let’s see what the market offers!

This 1.73% was so obvious!

Trading isn’t a solo hero game. No single trader/individual party can push or lead a trend on their own- the market is way bigger than any individual. That’s why it’s so important to look at multiple timeframes.

Only then can we really see how all the players (big and small) are moving, and understand the bigger picture across different pairs. It’s like watching the whole game instead of just one play.

Gold’s looking like a clean BUY today.........

Hello Traders,

Today doesn’t feel like one of those easy days in the Gold market. The price action is messy, and if you’re only glued to one timeframe, you’re probably missing the bigger drama that’s unfolding.

Here’s what I’m seeing-

Higher Timeframes (HTF): The structure is still holding key levels, but momentum looks shaky. Big players are clearly defending zones, and that’s where the real battle is happening.
Lower Timeframes (LTF): Lots of noise, fakeouts, and traps. If you’re scalping without aligning with the HTF narrative, you’re basically walking into ambushes.

The Confluence Game: This is one of those days where HTF and LTF need to shake hands before you pull the trigger. If they’re not in sync, you’re just gambling.
Patience>Impulse: The market is baiting traders into overtrading. Better to sit back, let the picture fully develop, and then strike when the HTF+LTF storylines line up.

So, today is about discipline. Don’t force trades just because the chart is moving. Wait for the confluence, wait for the confirmation, and only then step in.

Expecting Buy Volume in this Pre-NY or NY Session !

Gold MCX December Futures Correct Sharply After Strong Rally

Gold MCX December futures, which touched a peak of ₹127940 per 10 grams last Thursday, have entered a sharp correction phase - exactly as anticipated after an 8% continuous rally (as mentioned in my earlier articles). In the four sessions that followed, prices slid to nearly ₹121000, opening with a heavy gap-down today, falling almost 7,000 points from last week’s highs.

On the international front, Gold Spot (XAU/USD) also declined sharply, dropping from $4245 to $4005 per ounce, marking a 240+ point correction in four sessions during Asian trading hours.

Why Gold Prices Declined

Lower probability of a December Fed rate cut
Expectations for a December cut have fallen to 40%, compared to 67% just a week ago. Sticky inflation and weak U.S. private-sector job data have prompted a more cautious tone from the Federal Reserve.

Softer physical demand
A decline in physical buying has added pressure on prices.

Two bearish pressures have eased
The US government has reopened, removing a major uncertainty.
The US - China trade truce has been extended, calming market nerves.

Markets now await upcoming US data releases and FOMC minutes, which will likely provide direction for interest rates and the broader trend.

What Should Traders Do Before FOMC and Upcoming US Data?

In my view, with the US government now reopened and the Fed displaying a slightly hawkish stance, precious metals may remain volatile. And If upcoming data disappoints and rate-cut expectations revive, the US dollar may weaken, which generally supports upside momentum in gold MCX December futures.

Intraday Strategy - Gold MCX December Futures

Buy Zone: ₹120900 - ₹121000 (today’s low)
Stop-Loss: 700 points below the day’s low
Targets: New High ₹122130+ before market close or within the next two sessions

Buying on dips may offer strong intraday opportunities, especially after today’s exaggerated gap-down.

Conclusion

Gold has retraced sharply after an extended rally, driven by shifting expectations surrounding the Fed and weakening physical demand. However, upcoming US data and FOMC minutes could quickly shift sentiment.

For now, traders may consider buying on dips, as short-term recovery in both gold and silver MCX December contracts looks likely, especially if the dollar softens and rate-cut expectations revive.

Today NFP 7.00pm
Gold buy CMP
4049$...4040$
SL 4025$
Strict SL please
TGT 4145$...4178$

Strong sell trend in this London session.

This 2% was so easy!

We all used to be like that.

So true brother;

Ahead of the Bank of Japan rate hike, gold saw a brutal shakeout on both sides. The late-night price action was extremely aggressive, breaking above the 4350 resistance and pushing straight toward the all-time high near 4380.
Just as the bulls got excited, sellers suddenly stepped in. Gold plunged from 4374 down to 4310 in a flash, a drop of more than 60 dollars. Same setup, same playbook — and institutions have been pulling this move for an entire week straight.
Gold has now entered a critical range between 4310 and 4380. A break below 4306 will determine the bearish direction, while a move above 4380 would mark a new all-time high. Silver has already surged, while gold remains stuck in consolidation.
At the moment, gold is locked within the 4310–4380 range. The key level to watch is last night’s low around 4310–4305. If this level breaks, a rebound could present short opportunities. Another key window is the late U.S. session — last night we went long near 4320 and exited around 4340–4342. Not long after we closed the position, a sharp selloff followed.
For today, gold remains in the 4310–4380 range. Trading within the range is the preferred strategy for now. Long positions should be protected below 4305, while short positions should be protected above 4380. As long as price stays inside the range, look to buy low and sell high. Once the range is broken, follow the breakout direction accordingly.

It seems next target for GOLD is 4450

I think the trend is bearish, so I’m waiting for a sell move.