Justin's Playground

Day trading is a wild world with full of dangers. I wish I didn't know the trading....

Limit order placed. Worth trying I think.....

Set to BE protected now.

Decided not too greedy.

I didn't take this trade but it was a good setup I think... By the way, I posted this late due to cloudfare disconnection issue which affected FF.

First arrow is too big candle which was not supported by higher TFs.
Second one hadn't broken the resistance line.
Third one is better and ideal setup I think at least in hindsight....

Hi Justin,
It always PAYS to wait for the Pullback

First trading ended up in a small loss. I was trading against 50 EMA of 4H chart and 200 EMA of 1H chart. That's not very good in hindsight.....

Second trade. Not greedy. Quick in and out.


My observation is 4 - 6 AM in NY time is usually slow and choppy....

This is EURUSD. It looks behavioral pattern is the same. Price respects level by level......

Major news releases are scheduled today. Better be careful. Currently still waiting for a good setup. I have a bit bullish bias. Want to see some higher high, higher low stuff before I enter....

My gut feeling is today may not be easy to trade. Price is again stuck between 50 and 200 EMA of 4H chart (look at the indecision candle on 4H chart with long wicks in both sides). Candle PA is bullish but MAs of major TFs are bearish. On top of those, we have a major news releases soon. I think I should be off today. I don't want to lose big again....

Obviously bearish....

Do not attempt to refer to DXY when you day trade Gold. Price chart is everything you need. There are also people who refer to /ES (S&P500) when they trade /NQ (Nasdaq), and they are still losing.... There's no arbitrage like trading opportunity these days really, especially upon retail level traders. Don't waste your time.


Does Gold and DXY have a strong inverse correlation?

Gold and the U.S. Dollar Index (DXY) often have an inverse correlation — but it is not constant, not always strong, and not perfectly reliable for trading.
Why they tend to move inversely

1. Gold is priced in USD globally.
   When the dollar strengthens, gold becomes more expensive for non-USD buyers → demand falls → gold prices drop.
2. Safe-haven flows differ.
   1. Strong USD = investors moving into dollar-denominated assets (e.g., Treasuries).
   2. Weak USD = investors sometimes move to gold as an alternative store of value.

3. Interest rate expectations (Fed policy).
   Higher rates → stronger dollar → gold (yield-less asset) becomes less attractive.
   Lower rates → weaker dollar → gold rises.

How strong is the correlation?

1. Long-term average correlation: about –0.5 to –0.7
   (meaning moderately strong inverse correlation)
2. Short term (daily/weekly): the correlation can break completely.
3. During risk-off events (wars, crises):
   → Both can rise if USD is safe-haven and gold is also safe-haven.

Important Notes

1. Gold vs DXY is not a perfect hedge.
2. Correlation varies significantly based on macro conditions.
3. For trading: don’t treat it as deterministic, treat it as a bias factor.

Summary
PeriodCorrelation Strength
Long-term (months–years)Moderately strong inverse (–0.5 to –0.7)
Short-term (days–weeks)Weak, inconsistent
Crisis periodsCan both rise together
If you want, I can also check current (past 90-day or 1-year) correlation using up-to-date market data — just ask.

This 4H candle closes about in an hour and half. If it closes as a bull candle above 200 EMA, my bias could be changed to bullish. This 4H range looks difficult to crak...

So quick .....

4H candle ended as a neutral candle.
1H candle is neutral
15M candle is bullish
5M candle breaks S/R and retests