Gold with No Drama

Well, I received this from my broker yesterday

I have just closed manually in a loss

gold is on a all-time high with a 9 weeks bullish candle i see a big sell coming i will sit this out and wait

Where is the man who comes from the future to tell us what's happening there?

Going long is the best option, buying dips pays. it's an endless story

for me better to wait for a major pull back then join the buyers

Back then my below statement stood valid and today it does too.. a blog i had written ages ago..

this is the link https://thepraetorion.blogspot.com/

RE-entry market this time tried to make a move below the 1m 50ema failed to stay below it and then made a move back up now we just made a move back down to the 50ema and got again a rejection

Update SL at BE

yes that is possible, but i think it will happen later, ny session maybe, gold could reach 4400 by then before big banks taking profit, it is a fryday as usual

I think I may have solved the puzzle but I will wait for 200-300 pips movement before posting anything here

my bias is also short but technical analysis may not work for now. market is moving coz of news.

You had it spot on

few years ago a company in usa was going bankrupt, bankers place selling positions to profit from the bankruptcy, netizens call for buying and kept buying to break those banks, and they did.

up or reduce?

TP1 smashed, left small position running

Update small position stopped out at BE

It can happen however a lot of retail are looking for that pull back to continue buying so markets might not give them that move today however can happen

I don't see 'a big sell coming'. Technically and fundamentally, everthing is pretty bullish. And momentum is increasing at Daily, Weekly, Monthly charts

Probably, we will see 4500-5000-6000 at next weeks and months one by one.

It can be smart to wait some small pullback to go long (or just open very small size long position) but waiting big sell may lead to missing nice longing opportunities.

I think many people here don't understand well enough the fundamental reasons behind this endless Gold rise.

Some members, including me, tried to explain it previously, but apparently some people didn't read or understand them. I wanted to write about it again but I thought why not asking to ChatGPT for summary

So, I asked:
Can you summarize to me fundamental reasons of Gold bullishness in last years which is accelarating at recent months? Give me most important reasons first, then give me supportive reasons also.

ChatGPT said:
Most important reasons

1. Real interest rates / yield environment
   1. Gold doesn't pay interest or yield. So when real yields (i.e. nominal yields minus inflation) fall or go negative, gold becomes more attractive. Investors don’t lose as much by holding something non-yielding.
   2. In many major economies, inflation remained sticky and expectations of future inflation meant that real yields fell. Even if nominal rates are high, if inflation is high or expected to stay high, real yields can be low or negative. Reuters+3IG+3Econofact+3
   3. Also, increasingly expectations of upcoming rate cuts from the U.S. Fed (or other central banks) reduce the opportunity cost of holding gold, further boosting its appeal. Reuters+2financialexpress.com+2

2. Elevated uncertainty / geopolitical risk / safe-haven demand
   1. Global geopolitical tensions (e.g. U.S.–China trade tensions, conflict zones, sanctions regimes) have been rising, which increases demand for safe-assets. Gold is a classic safe haven. Reuters+2Reuters+2
   2. Uncertainty around fiscal deficits, central bank balance sheets, and potential financial instability plays into gold’s role as a hedge. World Bank Blogs+3Reuters+3Financial Times+3

3. Central bank demand / reserve diversification (“de-dollarization”)
   1. Central banks (China, India, Turkey, among others) have been buying gold aggressively. This serves multiple purposes: hedge against currency risks, reduce exposure to U.S.-dollar or Western-financial sanctions, preserve value. World Bank Blogs+3IG+3Financial Times+3
   2. Because central-bank demand tends to be large and long-term, it takes a lot of gold off the market or keeps it in reserve rather than liquid trading, tightening supply. IG+1

4. Weakness in the U.S. dollar
   1. A weaker dollar makes gold priced in dollars cheaper for holders of other currencies, boosting demand globally. CME Group+2IG+2
   2. Also, when the dollar is weakening, that often signals either expectations of inflation, or less confidence in U.S. fiscal/monetary strength, which reinforces gold’s appeal. IG+2CME Group+2

5. Inflation / persistent inflation expectations
   1. Inflation erodes the purchasing power of fiat currencies; gold is viewed as a store of value that tends to hold up in inflationary periods. Reuters+3IG+3Econofact+3
   2. Even when headline inflation has moderated somewhat, core inflation or inflation expectations have stayed elevated, meaning gold continues to be perceived as a hedge. financialexpress.com+2Econofact+2

Supportive / reinforcing reasons
These are factors that aren’t necessarily the strongest alone but help amplify or sustain the bullishness:

1. ETF inflows, investment demand — More money flowing into gold via ETFs and other financial vehicles, both among institutional and retail investors. This adds to demand pressure without being tied to physical demand in the same way. Reuters+2financialexpress.com+2
2. Supply constraints or lack of large production increases — Gold mining and production cannot ramp up very quickly, so high demand tends to translate more directly into higher prices.
3. Shifts in demand from emerging markets — Growing middle class, wealth in places like India, China; cultural preferences for physical gold, jewelry, and coins. These markets are less sensitive to interest rates or financial returns and more to wealth preservation. inr360.com+1
4. Fiscal deficits and government debt concerns — Large deficits, rising debt burdens, especially when paired with political uncertainty, make investors worry about future inflation, currency devaluation, or financial instability. Gold often benefits in those environments. Reuters+1
5. Sentiment / momentum effects — Once gold starts rising, more investors want to get in simply because of fear of missing out (FOMO), safe-haven demand, or portfolio hedging. That reinforces price moves. The Guardian+2Econofact+2

Why acceleration recently
Putting together the above, some particular triggers or inflection-points have sped things up:

1. Rising expectations that the Fed will start cutting rates (or at least that rate hikes are over), which reduces opportunity cost of holding gold. Reuters+2financialexpress.com+2
2. Renewed / escalating geopolitical tensions (e.g., U.S.–China conflicts, sanctions, trade friction) enhancing safe-haven demand. Reuters+1
3. Central bank purchases increasing, possibly even accelerating, especially among those seeking to hedge geopolitical risk and diversify away from the dollar. Financial Times+1
4. Weakness in the U.S. dollar, partly because of large U.S. deficits, maybe concerns about the long-term value of the currency, government shutdown risk, etc. Reuters+1

Typical for the small position to be stopped out at BE either way I`m done trading for the session, I`m in line with my trading plan goals... I`ll get on with some homework and trade journaling I`ll see you guys tomorrow in NY session. Be safe out there

Help !!!

Chiforex put me on ignore because I said gold will go to 4500 this week

In addition to reasons summarized at previous post, I want to emphasize that geopolitic risks are more than ever in the world. There is arms race all around the world. Possibility of worldwide war is spoken more and more in the capitals of world countries. Even pacifist countries (after WW2) like Germany and Japan are strenghtening their armies. Central Banks are accumulating golds in a steady pace for worse days. Lack of trust on US policies and USD is also accelarating rush to Gold.

So, there is no valid reason to sell Gold in near future.

There can be big sell only in two extreme case imho:

1) WW3 starts and Central Banks need to use/sell their golds for their country, Then, we can see big fluctuations and drops. Hopefully, we never see this situation.

2) If there will be a big crash at US stock markets like happened after 2 April 2025 (big tariff announcement by Trump) or 2008 global crisis, we can see significant liquidation (close of long positions) at Gold by Hedge Funds, Investment Banks etc. Probably, this drop would be temporary. After a few weeks/months, Gold would resume its bullishness, because probably there would be FED intervention to the markets (expansionary monetary policy, printing more money) or change of policies by politicians to calm down markets.

So, I will be buying dips at Gold until the start of WW3 or very big stock markets crash.

There will be, of course, bearish correction days even weeks on the way but trying to short is riskier than following trend, especially for new traders.

Good pips