Here&#x2019;s What Happens When the US Government Shuts Down

The US is a real life Simpsons episode.

Sep 28, 2025 10:38pm — Edited

Quoting Trader#EA11

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US equities gapping up this evening, only a small number of points from another all time high. Maybe give a rest to these click bait news headlines that trick people into thinking things are bad when they obviously aren’t. So many people have completely missed out on a huge non stop rally by believing fake news from biased people. Almost all worldwide equities have done nothing but go up even after hundreds of supposedly bad headlines.

Ignored

Usually stock market crashes have happened at a small number of points from another all time high.
Can you provide examples of crashes that happened at a large number of points lower from the previous all time high?
If you can, go back to that previous highest point before crash and that is when the crash had started.

Sep 29, 2025 4:30am — Edited

Quoting OutThere

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{quote} You are one of those who ended up holding the bag after all the historical crashes due to your unbearable greed.

Ignored

actually OutThere time to do some research. the reason this rally continues to go higher is the masses continue to hedge downside risk as they are scared. ever since the april bottom the masses(including the big money) are scared and keep buying put options and hedging downside risk. with all the tarriff news and other daily news headlines they keep getting scared. the majority have missed this rally - the weekly sentiment numbers have so many bears to a couple of bulls. crazy stuff.
markets do the opposite to the masses
i remember back in may the crowd said " sell in may and go away"
than September is the weakest month of the year - well it was strong
do the opposite of the crowd and make money

Sep 29, 2025 5:04am

Quoting OutThere

Disliked

{quote} Buying put options and hedging downside risk is done by rather sophisticated folks. Were they not doing that in 1987 and 2008? The tariffs are then a blessing in disguise? When the next crash happens everyone will be happily cashing in with profit? The phenomenon of stock market crashes is now a thing of the past?

Ignored

i never said there won't be any crashes - not at the current time - when a majority are bearish markets don't crash. 87 and 2007 everybody was super bullish and buying a million calls - currently they are buying puts
i shake my head - i have seen your posts -u understand the markets do the opposite of the crowd - markets crash when the crowd is bullish not bearish
yes a pullback is coming but it is buyable - markets going higher yet

Bigus Dadus

Sep 28, 2025 2:42pm

Government shutdowns all have the same cause: Congress fails to approve new spending when previous spending bills expire. ???????
Cause is rather simple, they are spending too much!!

Sep 29, 2025 2:13am

Quoting Trader#2C2E

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{quote} Name a time in history with a crash, then all times highs, which already happened this year, then another crash several months later. You idiot perma bears have completely missed the biggest run up of your lives while calling for a crash that’s never happened in history.

Ignored

You are one of those who ended up holding the bag after all the historical crashes due to your unbearable greed.

Sep 29, 2025 4:52am

Quoting Steven1

Disliked

{quote} actually OutThere time to do some research. the reason this rally continues to go higher is the masses continue to hedge downside risk as they are scared. ever since the april bottom the masses(including the big money) are scared and keep buying put options and hedging downside risk. with all the tarriff news and other daily news headlines they keep getting scared. the majority have missed this rally - the weekly sentiment numbers have so many bears to a couple of bulls. crazy stuff. markets do the opposite to the masses i remember back...

Ignored

Buying put options and hedging downside risk is done by rather sophisticated folks.
Were they not doing that in 1987 and 2008?
The tariffs are then a blessing in disguise?
When the next crash happens everyone will be happily cashing in with profit?
The phenomenon of stock market crashes is now a thing of the past?

Sep 29, 2025 5:45am

Quoting Steven1

Disliked

{quote} i never said there won't be any crashes - not at the current time - when a majority are bearish markets don't crash. 87 and 2007 everybody was super bullish and buying a million calls - currently they are buying puts i shake my head - i have seen your posts -u understand the markets do the opposite of the crowd - markets crash when the crowd is bullish not bearish yes a pullback is coming but it is buyable - markets going higher yet

Ignored

Well, you need to shake your head at the guy who predicted 1987's crash and the guy who predicted 2008 crash.
I imagine they both were into doing opposite of the crowd judging by their intuition and success.
Neither of them has posted an update to their few month old predictions either, so I assume their views are still valid.
Not to mention Warren Buffet..

https://www.cnbc.com/2025/05/06/paul...50percent.html

https://www.nbcnews.com/politics/pol...rse-rcna201040

Sep 29, 2025 7:25am

Quoting Steven1

Disliked

{quote} for goodness sake that shows u have much to learn. u need to do some actual research Ray Dalio has been bearish for the last 15 years - he is a classic perma-bear who is always wrong and somebody to do the oppsoite of pual tudor jones is a smart one - he goes on tv and says lots of bearish stuff but his hedge fund filings show him buying shares lol lol lol - classic and warren buffet is always bearish - he wants to buy shares at 5 times earnings - even at the 2009 lows he said shares were still expensive - he has had heaps of cash for the...

Ignored

Yes there is a lot of bullish sentiment going around right now. All the big boys are saying up up up.
Example https://www.bnnbloomberg.ca/investin...of-correction/

However, going by your own advice, -u understand the markets do the opposite of the crowd.

Sep 29, 2025 6:56am — Edited

Quoting OutThere

Disliked

{quote} Well, you need to shake your head at the guy who predicted 1987's crash and the guy who predicted 2008 crash. I imagine they both were into doing opposite of the crowd judging by their intuition and success. Neither of them has posted an update to their few month old predictions either, so I assume their views are still valid. Not to mention Warren Buffet.. https://www.cnbc.com/2025/05/06/paul...50percent.html https://www.nbcnews.com/politics/pol...rse-rcna201040...

Ignored

for goodness sake that shows u have much to learn.
u need to do some actual research
Ray Dalio has been bearish for the last 15 years - he is a classic perma-bear who is always wrong and somebody to do the oppsoite of
pual tudor jones is a smart one - he goes on tv and says lots of bearish stuff but his hedge fund filings show him buying shares lol lol lol - classic

and warren buffet is always bearish - he wants to buy shares at 5 times earnings - even at the 2009 lows he said shares were still expensive - he has had heaps of cash for the last 10 plus years
time to get some real examples

time to give u a hint - dow doubling from here to 100K by 2032 - we are in a secular bull market - yes 2026/27 will have a bear market(20% correction) but will than go to new highs
the permabears don't want to understand inflation makes shares go higher
and yes i have posts here from 18 months ago when sp500 was at 4800 and i said the markets were going higher - had same arguments with other posters here who were bearish - they were wrong bigtime with sp500 now at 6700. time to do some research on cycles and how the markets really work

Sep 29, 2025 7:30am

Quoting OutThere

Disliked

{quote} Yes there is a lot of bullish sentiment going around right now. All the big boys are saying up up up. Example https://www.bnnbloomberg.ca/investin...of-correction/ However, going by your own advice, -u understand the markets do the opposite of the crowd.

Ignored

seems u don't want to listen- i give up
people actions are what count - not what they say
the crowd is buying puts?????????????? is that BEARISH?????????????????????????????
oh dear

just another perma bear who like to be wrong - so many perma bears on this site - they are so stubborn

future911

Sep 28, 2025 4:39pm

"Among the Department of Labor agencies that would likely shutter completely is the Bureau of Labor Statistics, according to a March 2025 contingency plan released under the Freedom of Information Act. A shutdown would likely delay the release of the September jobs report, due next Friday — and, if it continues, the inflation report due mid-month.
It’s not just the data releases. Data collection would also stop, impacting the quality of data for months to come — leaving the Federal Reserve without reliable data to help it plot the course of interest rates. Data-dependent policymakers and investors would have to look to third parties to fill in the blanks on the health of the economy."

The BLS is already skewed in measuring, no way it can withstand any more skew. Especially with fiscal dominance, chaotic policy, dual mandate being challenged. Data is very important ATM with immense uncertainty

Js3mwtRc

Sep 29, 2025 12:14am

In case the shutdown pass then nfp is expected to be weak at Friday

Imhotep21

Sep 28, 2025 12:59pm

Wow, I hope the govt doesn’t shutdown

Trader#8B46

Sep 28, 2025 2:47pm

Good riddance shut it down!

Trader#BCB2

Sep 28, 2025 10:09am

Dxy to the moon

Trader#EA11

Sep 28, 2025 5:30pm

US equities gapping up this evening, only a small number of points from another all time high.

Maybe give a rest to these click bait news headlines that trick people into thinking things are bad when they obviously aren’t. So many people have completely missed out on a huge non stop rally by believing fake news from biased people. Almost all worldwide equities have done nothing but go up even after hundreds of supposedly bad headlines.

PeaceOfSlime

Sep 28, 2025 5:35pm

Another day of walking the financial tightrope

Trader#2C2E

Sep 28, 2025 11:51pm

Quoting OutThere

Disliked

{quote} Usually stock market crashes have happened at a small number of points from another all time high. Can you provide examples of crashes that happened at a large number of points from the previous all time high? If you can, go back to that highest point before crash and that is when the crash had started.

Ignored

Name a time in history with a crash, then all times highs, which already happened this year, then another crash several months later. You idiot perma bears have completely missed the biggest run up of your lives while calling for a crash that’s never happened in history.

Trader#0598

Sep 29, 2025 9:31am

Quoting Steven1

Disliked

{quote} seems u don't want to listen- i give up people actions are what count - not what they say the crowd is buying puts?????????????? is that BEARISH????????????????????????????? oh dear just another perma bear who like to be wrong - so many perma bears on this site - they are so stubborn

Ignored

Look at his profile

Trader#03AE

Sep 28, 2025 8:23pm

Yea shut down is good for the whole world in planet earth

…… so that no more apply new tariffs hahaha ;p

Trader#D6BD

Sep 29, 2025 1:11pm