Gold

let say W1 close above 3675 => top side need liquiditate..., that top was weak IMO, therefore dont worry if this H4 candle close above that level
very nice touch to the high btw, im out most of my buy for now

alright guys, happy weekend

Dust in the winndddddd

D1 target reached. TP all

When Gold started going out of the correlation with the major pairs and the DXY, it became moving in a one man show based on fundamentals only, though you can attach some technicals to it as you can do to any pair just to JUSTIFY THE WHY and that is very easy since there're always 2 options that the market can choose from, so easy to say later OH look it's bcoz a technical...
But obviously when any pair move in one direction that much like Gold or BTC or.. that automatically mean fundamentals rule it and I'm not a fan of that BS!
I'm a pure technical trader. You should trade something that moves with some logic something technical to analyze, NOT randomly jumping over pivots resistance support.. like a jerk clowning, though again it can stop at some major levels but that's mainly on high timeframes and not always, but definitely pairs like GU and EU are way more reliable and technically durable to trade especially that it's correlated to DXY.
For Gold, you shouldn't trade it on low time frames, even if some are happy to make money now, even when they buy at whatever level market is continuing upward, so be happy as long as it lasts but nothing lasts forever and BTC should be a lesson of massive fluctuations...btw expecting the next spike down...

This is the last time I'll waste my time talking about this. I said it before that at end of this month, I'll evaluate Gold movement and announce if I'll no longer trade it even on long term, but you're all free to continue whatever trading you want and this thread will continue however...And everyone is responsible of their decisions in life.

Gold is not a one man show. It moves on both fundamentals and technicals just like any other instrument. GU, EU and other major reserve currencies respects DXY, while gold respects liquidity zones, the London AM and PM fixes, and central bank flows and other various other participants like ISDA (all together a different subject). If it were truly random central banks would not be buying it. Volatility does not mean chaos.. it means opportunity for traders with discipline and structure.

As for BTC the difference is clear and purely speculative, while gold has years of monetary history and is actively managed by central banks. Volatility in gold is not noise, it is opportunity for those disciplined enough to trade it. At the end of the day, it all boils down to about the strategy being applied. If GU suits your style, fair enough but dismissing gold as clowning around pivots misses the point that traders are making money with structure and rules, not guessing and if they are guessing they are simply just blowing account after account which we have seen earlier on the forum.

Currency pairs like GU or EU are largely driven by monetary policy, relative interest rates, and their direct correlation to the DXY. They are more technically durable because the flows are anchored in policy divergence and FX liquidity.

Commodities, however, trade differently. Energy products such as crude oil or natural gas respond to supply shocks, inventories, and OPEC decisions. Agricultural commodities follow weather cycles, planting data, and seasonal demand.
Precious metals like gold and silver are unique because they trade as both commodities and monetary assets. Gold in particular is influenced not only by technical structure but also by central bank purchases, geopolitical risk, and its long standing role as a store of value mainly referencing to Purchase power (not interest bearing rather wealth preservation).

When gold breaks correlation with DXY or majors, it does not mean it is random. It simply means different drivers are in play. As for traders, the key lesson is to understand that correlations are dynamic. Recognizing why an instrument is decoupling from its usual driver provides deeper insight into market structure rather than dismissing the instrument altogether.

I rather than not view this as resentment, rather useful to discuss share and educate it to forum audience especially new ones who come to learn.

i do not need any rocket science to tell me what happened in September month

i can see it on chart

its all basics

You are great by not letting any emotions to get in and focus on the facts.

well done.

Charts showing that only major news on the weekend could eliminate gold from a new ATH next week.

All TF are up.
30m and 1h in a fresh momentum.
i will say, bears need a real gap down (something like 20$ or more) to change it.

4h sitting on the top of a bearish OB
If it will break, bullish start for the week.

Traders were mentioning about errors,is it solved?

i did not find any errors, post it on that thread so those others can use it too

Here a comparison btw beautiful and bold. GU vs Gold
Without nonsense theories and explanations that don't eat you any single piece of bread, but just simple two charts that proves everything.
As you see GU chart show clear retrace down retrace down retrace up retrace up and that's even the weekly chart while the daily chart show more retraces movements and respect of simple trendlines even!

While Gold started its BS since 2000. As you see all the movement is a one man show no retrace just go up that proves that it's all a fundamental move.
Some speak in triviality that it's also related to technical well what can you see other than a straight line up just like Silver too That's even worse from $8 ROFLMAO
Factors moved it? Well even a dumb knows that.. But what factors and how can you trade based on it equates you can't.

While DXY is a known factor while others now driving Gold are unknown random BS so baseless, nothing core to rely on just as BTC.

So here my perspective is clear logic, you trade based on something you can see and analyze, NOT throw your stick(money) in the sea and wait hoping for the fish to arrive or as gambling on a roulette table in the Casino

Briefly, All current prices vs the $ are over exaggerated, very high, ain't worth that, just like u bring and price a 1g for 1k, does it cost that now? Surely, ain't a group of idiots who priced it there? Definitely
But should I buy it just bcoz random fundamentals placed it there? Well a big NO. SIMPLY BCOZ AIN'T WORTH IT

SAME FOR GOLD AND ANYTHING VS $. IT'S ALL AIN'T WORTH TO BUY AT CURRENT PRICE BUT TO SELL AND HOLD ON...
FRUIT WILL BE EATEN LATER

I just trade the chart and forget about it.

Very good , kind sir ..
Now stop boasting about it

Such chart comparisons are interesting but it oversimplifies the discussion and misses the point. Again .. GU may look cleaner because FX pairs are largely driven by monetary policy and their correlation to DXY. That is what gives them clearer retrace structures on weekly charts. Gold is different. It trades as both a commodity and a monetary non interest bearing asset. On the weekly chart the move may look like a straight line up. I do not know if that chart is logarithmic or not, but drop to lower timeframes and you will see retracements, consolidations, and liquidity sweeps just like in GU (unless you see GU and EUR are easy to project and trade thats different and fine). The difference is that volatility is compressed differently because gold is influenced by central bank flows, London AM/PM fixes, and geopolitical events. Factors are what create the flows and technicals show where those flows enter thats exactly how gold is traded.

Now to address the rise from the $2000, let us look at what triggered this move in the past. Between Aug to Oct 2022 gold slid toward the 1614 area as the $ and yields surged after the FED delivered a 75 bps rate hike on 21 September and signaled more increases. this pushes the DXY to fresh 20 year highs and lifting Treasury yields to peaks not seen since 2008 (See Fred chart). While global gold ETFs recorded net outflows of about 51 tons in August 22, reflecting risk off positioning (see etf chart) and here is where Gold printed a 2 1/2 year low near 1614.87 on 28 September as the stronger dollar and higher yields raised the opportunity cost of holding a non yielding asset. This level was tested three times 1616.26 by late October and November with the final touch 1616.66 and that was your turning point. Around the same time US 10 YR yield was around the highest in over 14 years reinforcing pressure on gold at those levels the cycle started and my projections of gold charts were projected around 19 November 2022. In 2023 the collapse of two major US investment banks Silicon Valley Bank and in europe it was credit suisse that added another layer of stress to the financial system (which is not accounted for) and drove investors back into gold as a systemic hedge. why? because it was expensive to borrow USD for banks. the big fish ate the small fishes where SVB was taken over by a bigger bank and credit suisse was bailed out by Swiss National bank.

Now in 2024 central banks around the world were net buyers of more than 1000 tons of gold (attached here but freely available on world gold council). The countries listed continued to accumulate to diversify away from USD.

If the rally were random then official Govt. institutions would not be buying at record levels. Risks from inflation, energy crises the war in Ukraine supported safe haven demand with expectations of possible recession (future pricing just like prior to news you saw gold rise to 25 bps where market already priced in 50bps) and concern that inflation would persist.

Fast forward to now and the mix is different, with gold closing near 3685 while the US 10YR sits near 5.02% and DXY around 97.64. The latest COT report for 16 September 2025 shows Institution long 326778 contracts and short 60336 with a net long of 266442 and open interest at 510623. That is structured speculative demand rather than randomness figures or charts thrown over. Taken together, the 2022 fall to 1614 was a textbook response to a surging dollar and rising yields with ETF outflows, while the current advance is occurring alongside a softer dollar, strong accumulated positioning, and a persistent central banks around the world bidding. This is not a one man show unless you can show me, it is a rotation of drivers that can be measured and traded.

You also mentioned GU rising so lets look at institutional net long positions reported last Monday and published to retail (the HERD = we the retail are the herd) on Friday after market close net long positions and this is CME Data (Chicago Mercantile Exchange also freely available). My point is when gold breaks correlation with DXY or yields, it is not noise. It is to be treated as a signal that market drivers have shifted. Rising yields, a softer DXY, heavy central bank buying, and a net long COT structure all confirm that golds rally is supported by measurable flows and positioning. Dismissing it as random fundamentals ignores the mechanics that are driving price and one misses the boat (46% rise from Jan 2025 and i had posted charts from December 2024 of the next rise)

Currency traders and institutional bank treasury desk dealers are never comfortable when gold rallies aggressively because it signals rising systemic risk and puts pressure on their positions. A correction of $50 - $200 drop or rise in gold is normal when correction occurs..

I am a day trader and I do not ignore market dynamics and noise.. rather I have learnt to filter it. When I trade XAU against any pair I assess market sentiment, the geopolitical context, and upcoming shifts. I said we would see a midweek reversal in this post https://www.metalsmine.com/thread/po...2#post15394572 and pointing to the imbalance on the charts created by 25bps, something I call a price reset, where a news event clears the highs and the lows and then prints a higher high. For me a technical chart tells the story of what happened and how the markets reacted with a projection and sharing charts and having such discussions are meant to refine and grow as a trader, I do not know about others.

In trading one must never forget that as a retail trader your data feed is just a subscription from an ECN through your broker. You are trading in a market dominated by central banks, institutions and liquidity providers and it is their system their game. This is not our game. we dont own it, control it, or sit on a desk that commands even 0.1% of the market. Add to that the fact we are trading financial instruments so ask yourself, who really sets the price? and with gold, You are dealing with one of the most volatile assets in the world watched closely not by this forum or Forex Factory , but by the largest players globally.
The system is designed to exploit retail weakness, and it takes more than technical charts or simple support and resistance lines to survive. If banks themselves can fail we need to remember we are not even a drop in the ocean. That is why I say: good traders cut their losses, but great traders switch directions.
At the end of the day I can only speak for myself. My style is to trade what I see, not what I believe. If an instrument rises, I trade it. If it falls into oblivion, I trade it there too. For me there are only two outcomes: you are right, or you are wrong. you cannot be both.

I havent seen a detailed explaination as this one as to why gold has risen from 1600 odds to 3700 odds. I can only say we can go to 5000 easily if the dollar gets dumped and it will be

Question

What is the importance of October 2025 for XAUUSD and why it will easily climb 225 usd to touch 3900 maybe 4000

Hint: the answer to this question is directly related to why gold moves

Gelubrin knows the answer, we have discussed and used the technique in every trade

the way gold price is keep going up, end of the year 4000 is very much possible.