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Fed forecasts only one rate cut in 2026, a more conservative outlook than expected
The Federal Reserve is projecting only one rate cut in 2026, less than expected, according to its median projection. The central bank’s so-called dot plot, which anonymously shows 19 individual members’ expectations, indicates a median estimate of 3.4% for the federal funds rate at the end of 2026. That compares to a median estimate of 3.6% for the end of this year, following two expected cuts on top of Wednesday’s reduction. A single quarter-point reduction next year is significantly more conservative than current market pricing. Traders are currently pricing in two to three more rate cuts next year, according ... (full story)
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