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  • #92,161
  • Sep 12, 2025 11:01am Sep 12, 2025 11:01am
Quoting RaHaG0D
{quote} My current view on the chart is bearish. In my opinion, the decline phase has begun. There are both signs of breakdown and price reversal. Today, I expected the Ichimoku cloud to be broken downward, but with the formation of irregular tops on the 15-minute chart and the lack of a proper breakout of its cloud, the price pulled back again. There are two scenarios: If the price can break the Ichimoku cloud on the hourly chart within the next 12 candles, the decline wave will start. If it fails, the price will enter a 200-candle bullish phase,...
Thanks alot for your detailed analysis really appreciate your input
  • #92,162
  • Sep 12, 2025 11:03am Sep 12, 2025 11:03am
I hope you all are out for the rest of the day lol
Shit range day and it will ends like that.
The average of this move is not complete yet, and this zone will act like magnet next Week before anything else.
Have all a nice weekend....
  • #92,163
  • Sep 12, 2025 11:17am Sep 12, 2025 11:17am
Quoting azhantahir
{quote} just focused on the simple basics. OHLC vs OLHC. its about restructure, manipulation, accumulation, distribution and expansion. IMHO {image}
DXY VS GOLD. IMHO
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Look right, we'll see the signs
  • #92,164
  • Sep 12, 2025 11:36am Sep 12, 2025 11:36am
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Quoting abimalik
{quote} Thanks alot for your detailed analysis really appreciate your input
There is nothing wrong with being kind & loving to each other
  • #92,165
  • Sep 12, 2025 11:44am Sep 12, 2025 11:44am
Quoting azhantahir
{quote} DXY VS GOLD. IMHO {image} {image}
OHLC or OLHC needs manipulation, distribution, accumulation, and expansion to complete the structure.

BASIC vs ADVANCE scenarios. IMHO , Happy weekend.
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Look right, we'll see the signs
  • #92,166
  • Edited 12:01pm Sep 12, 2025 11:47am | Edited 12:01pm
Quoting Deal
I hope you all are out for the rest of the day lol Shit range day and it will ends like that. The average of this move is not complete yet, and this zone will act like magnet next Week before anything else. Have all a nice weekend....

Average done... DAY END!

EDIT: Monday can go bearish 2 times this move... Keep in mind this. I am not saying it will, i am saying that there is high probability.
Wait for a 30m close above 3649.475 and when close another below short it! Can not close above 3653.620, setup invalid....
  • #92,167
  • Sep 12, 2025 11:51am Sep 12, 2025 11:51am
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Precise Execution!
  • #92,168
  • Sep 12, 2025 12:31pm Sep 12, 2025 12:31pm
Quoting Deal
{quote} Average done... DAY END! EDIT: Monday can go bearish 2 times this move... Keep in mind this. I am not saying it will, i am saying that there is high probability. Wait for a 30m close above 3649.475 and when close another below short it! Can not close above 3653.620, setup invalid....

It seem will just wick, but the safest way is clear confirm bulls fail, if it leave it leave... Because this candle can be just a pulback to end bullish at the end. Don't be trap.
  • #92,169
  • Sep 12, 2025 12:44pm Sep 12, 2025 12:44pm
Long tp at 3750. Sell limit at this price. In case Monday opening time if any spike. I don't want to miss.
SURFER
  • #92,170
  • Sep 12, 2025 1:15pm Sep 12, 2025 1:15pm
Quoting GoldGod
{quote} Update: Buyers hesitating—waiting for more than one confirmation {image}
Done for today — no trades. Have a great weekend, y’all.
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GoldGod Flip3 Return Today: na
  • #92,171
  • Sep 12, 2025 2:41pm Sep 12, 2025 2:41pm
Quoting Deal
{quote} It seem will just wick, but the safest way is clear confirm bulls fail, if it leave it leave... Because this candle can be just a pulback to end bullish at the end. Don't be trap.
As usual i am not in the trade and starts playing lol
Damm...
  • #92,172
  • Sep 12, 2025 4:00pm Sep 12, 2025 4:00pm
Jeezus off topic but had posted this about BTC a while back and this is where it is today .. flew off
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Candlesticks dont move markets, Volume does
  • #92,173
  • Sep 13, 2025 6:01am Sep 13, 2025 6:01am
Quoting RaHaG0D
{quote} Which broker do you use? Volume is different on every broker. That's why I don't use volume indicators. They aren't reliable for me... I also tested your indicator on the FXCM broker; it was different from your chart... This is always the case with all volume indicators.
many many thanks for your opinion.please don't use anything if don't know how to use ..imho. i don't care your volume numbers or brokers how show it .my ptz based on supply demand wyckoff +vsa and my virtual mentor is r wyckoff and tom william and this is huge topic i read volume with price and analysis market to know buyers ,sellers interest or aggressive buy or sell as ultra high volume, high volume , normal volume, ultra low volume and read price candle close like high close,low close ,lower middle close ,upper middle close than check real or fake move like no demand ,no supply ,test, spring ,upthrust, automatic rally, climatic acction bar(4 types) 2bar reversal, etc .my point is i don't see volume as you describe. please don't hesitate to ask anything .thanks
Say something meaningful or Silence!!
  • #92,174
  • Sep 13, 2025 9:46pm Sep 13, 2025 9:46pm
Broker tick volumes are inconsistent, and thats why most retail volume indicators on MT4 or MT5 end up confusing more than helping. personally I use orderflow data based on actual bid ask interaction, which isnt dependent on any brokers feed. That said, I realize not everyone here can adapt to orderflow as it requires time, cost, and an even steeper learning curve.

On Forex Factory, I found TAH’s PVSRA (Price, Volume, Support & Resistance Analysis and mentioned on my previous posts) a very useful and a productive framework for retail traders. By observing how price behaves around key support & resistance area and combining that with volume spikes, it gives a clear narrative of what the market might be doing. A lot depends on spread behavior when volume is rising.. a Low spread + low volume = no market interest, Low spread + high volume = notable order filling/absorption, High spread + low volume = shifting price to hunt for resting orders, High spread + high volume = potential beginning of a Run for Profits.

Wyckoff and VSA are also valid approaches, but lets be clear.. they are just one interpretation of volume, not the only truth. Reading bars as Spring, Upthrust, No Demand, No Supply is a framework, but that does not invalidate other methodologies. VSA is bar by bar with the main goal of detecting smart money activity while PVSRA is more focused on how volume behaves at key areas .. whole numbers, half numbers, prior highs/lows etc.. Both overlap in their intent linking price and volume to smart money behavior but their lenses are different.

I use order flow and footprint charts that show real bid ask activity, and I use PVSRA as an initial confluence andthat removes much of the guesswork. Instead of debating whether a bar was No Demand or Upthrust, using orderflow I can see directly if buyers were lifting offers, sellers were hitting bids, and whether absorption capped the move one can get a better confluence.

Take the example below from previous session .. The PVSRA chart showed exactly what its designed for .. a rise in volume without price progress, hinting at trapped shorts. Thats valuable context. But the footprint chart took it further where you can see the unfinished auctions, delta change, and aggressive lifting at the bid ask that confirmed the breakout.

This is why I treat PVSRA as confluence and order flow as confirmation. PVSRA highlights something unusual is happening, while footprint tells me who is in control right now and at what price. Together they reduce guesswork and make the trade decision much clearer.

So in short VSA and PVSRA and other tools have their place. They are frameworks, not exclusive truths. What matters is how consistently each of us can apply our chosen framework in the real market.
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Candlesticks dont move markets, Volume does
  • #92,175
  • Sep 14, 2025 6:11am Sep 14, 2025 6:11am
Quoting Raventine
{quote} with this level of CPI (no more recession), IMO there must be a huge pull back, there is much expectation of 5 point cut rate, but the truth is only 2.5 point, this FOMO buy is over. btw they are building position in the most obvious way i can see there lol, double top D1 is comming but let see next week after 18.Aug the price take that then pullback to the low or not. If the option is yes, therefore it is the confirmation for correction. This shithole is going as exactly what i think from Tuesday this week. Possible D1 close today...
No more recession ?.. Looks like we are heading for stagflation as far as i can tell.
Que Sera
  • #92,176
  • Edited 7:45am Sep 14, 2025 7:15am | Edited 7:45am
Quoting Catempire
{quote} No more recession ?.. Looks like we are heading for stagflation as far as i can tell.
well maybe im wrong, but it could be even better for us, the trader. And yeah, slow grow rate + high inflation is staflation no more recession. More volatility = more liquidity = more money -.- what the worst here? longterm stablize of price yeah, let it come mate, i love stagflation, recession then recovery. More money in my pocket lol, then i buy real asset in life
i wonder, what will happen whether they said no cut rate at 17/Aug? when everyone betting for a huge cut rate of 0.5 betting for higher and higher price of gold, much drop of USD... FED haven't tell a single word about this month will change rate, do they? Only about twice cut rate in this year... They still get 2 more chance in Oct and Dec right?
And i dont think Powell is Mr. Slow, there must be something fishy behind this, why he wont raise rate last month? but later? Do they show hand just last month with that strong uptrend movement? In most case i could see they want a good price level to push higher, but not this time, with me it kinda strange...
Will is the most powerful weapon in the world.
  • #92,177
  • Sep 14, 2025 3:29pm Sep 14, 2025 3:29pm
America placing its debt into gold & crypto & then devaluing it.... there's a thought.

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Que Sera
  • #92,178
  • Sep 14, 2025 6:11pm Sep 14, 2025 6:11pm
Quoting vankiepsauff
short 3645 , 10 lots
still hold short , 10 lots
vankiepsauff@gmail
  • #92,179
  • Sep 14, 2025 6:29pm Sep 14, 2025 6:29pm
Taken longs at the 30MA H4 (3638.33) same bounce point as 3614 last week, not been broken since 3230's.
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Que Sera
  • #92,180
  • Sep 14, 2025 6:53pm Sep 14, 2025 6:53pm
This is not an advice, just what i will do...
Buy Limit at 3633.630 Stop Loss at 3631.650 1st Tp 3637.155 runner to 3654.985.
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