Fed unlikely to cut rates despite pressure | Crypto Craft

  • Fed unlikely to cut rates despite pressure

    From breakingthenews.net

    The United States Federal Reserve is set to announce its interest rate decision later today, with analysts predicting that rates will remain in the current range of 4.25% and 4.50%, amid persisting uncertainty surrounding the impact of tariffs on global trade. US President Donald Trump has repeatedly attacked Fed Chair Jerome Powell for not lowering the rates and argued for a three-point cut, adding that "each point" would save the US economy $360 billion. Notably, Washington and Brussels reached a trade deal over the weekend, lowering the tariff rate on the EU to 15%. Previously, the US also concluded a trade ... (full story)

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Vancarbon
Jul 30, 2025 7:09am
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So , let’s look at the facts :

CPI currently running at 2.7% with tariffs averaging -

Current Tariff Rate: Consumers face an overall average effective tariff rate of 18.2%, the highest since 1934. After consumption shifts, the average tariff rate will be 17.3%, the highest since 1935.

https://budgetlab.yale.edu/research/...20since%201935.

Trump is calling for a Fed rate 3% lower .

Inventory run off is still occurring.Tariffs on the whole are inflationary , there are exceptions but these require other fundamentals to fall in line .

We’ll have to beg to differ on this one . I think you’re way off the mark.You’re making way too many presumptions without hard data to back up your thesis.
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Schultz
Jul 30, 2025 7:23am
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Something to consider is the inflation rate relative to whatever interest rate is considered.

I think - correct me if I am wrong - the latest published annual inflation figures for the USA was 2.5%. {Correction - 2.7% - I wrote this before reading Vancarbon's post above}

The Fed rate is around 4.25 to 4.5%. Let's make it 4.37%.

In economics, only the "real" rate of interest is really relevant.

In this case it is 4.37 less 2.5 which is roughly 1.87%.

Make your own judgement as to whether 1.87% is brutally high, or whatever, in all the circumstances. I know that is the rate that the Fed considers.
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Polimini
Jul 30, 2025 8:05am
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Quoting Schultz
{quote} I guess it could depend on the data and the context from when it was chosen. Let's take data from the early 1930's and see what happens.
that's one cherry picked context.
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Polimini
Jul 30, 2025 7:03am
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Quoting CycleGF
{quote}historically, the data has been proven Tariffs don't have much impact on Inflation.
what?! can you gives source for that. I wonder where that ever happened.

Prices go up and inflation doesn't, how does that even make any sense.
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Polimini
Jul 30, 2025 7:19am
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Quoting CycleGF
{quote} Go Fetch the data for yourself... Inflation goes up due to the Supply Chain, where the Supply dont meet the Demand, and there is an overwhelming demand while the input factors such as Oil price go up that cause the cost of production go up systematically. The impact of Tariff might result into decrease in the Import or reducing the export, or relocation of the manufacturing to the US to reduce the Cost rather than Export. You guys have to do some reading, go back to school
i blame the US education system.
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CycleGF
Jul 30, 2025 6:40am
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They cant just not cut rate because of the Pressure, that's ridiculous.... I think there is a true reason why the Role of the Fed and the way they do decision must be evaluated again. I can see a big crack in the Fed's way of doing business.

Why should the Fed Cut Rates Aggressively: Because its way way toooo high compared to other Currencies. And, the US economy is not booming, even if its growing moderately with a risk of downturn. The Tariffs are not substantial enough to impose an inflation. The current rates is just way too high and illegitimate, that really requires investigation, maybe the Fed is rigging the market....
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CycleGF
Jul 30, 2025 6:52am
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Its not about wanting to calm Trump, what Fed is doing is brutal, its imposing a break on an economy that is growing slowly. You don't want to kill a slow growth; that's not a good monetary policy. The Fed imposes high rates on an overheating economy with high inflation; the current rates just don't justify that.
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CycleGF
Jul 30, 2025 6:53am
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Quoting Vancarbon
{quote} I’m interested in this part “The Tariffs are not substantial enough to impose an inflation.” How do you arrive at this conclusion and what level exactly do you think would be inflationary? I’ll await your reply before commenting further.
Did you see any inflationary pressure due to Tariffs ? Where is the Data to back that up ?
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CycleGF
Jul 30, 2025 6:59am
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Quoting Vancarbon
{quote} Why do you think the Fed is waiting ! Do you actually believe inventory run down is instantaneous ?
Why do you think that the Fed should be proactive and innovative, on what possibly Tariffs can do, historically, the data has been proven Tariffs don't have much impact on Inflation. This is exactly, the problem, the Fed should be scrutinized on...
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CycleGF
Jul 30, 2025 7:07am
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Quoting Polimini
{quote} what?! can you gives source for that. I wonder where that ever happened. Prices go up and inflation doesn't, how does that even make any sense.
Go Fetch the data for yourself...
Inflation goes up due to the Supply Chain, where the Supply dont meet the Demand, and there is an overwhelming demand while the input factors such as Oil price go up that cause the cost of production go up systematically. The impact of Tariff might result into decrease in the Import or reducing the export, or relocation of the manufacturing to the US to reduce the Cost rather than Export. You guys have to do some reading, go back to school
Reply
Schultz
Jul 30, 2025 7:38am
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Quoting Polimini
{quote} what?! can you gives source for that. I wonder where that ever happened. Prices go up and inflation doesn't, how does that even make any sense.
I guess it could depend on the data and the context from when it was chosen. Let's take data from the early 1930's and see what happens.
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Schultz
Jul 30, 2025 5:29am
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Someone cynical may prefer the headline to read " Fed unlikely to cut rates because of pressure to cut"
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nafokito
Jul 30, 2025 5:29am
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Stop predicting lets see what they will do stop to manipulate the market
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Trader#9241
Jul 30, 2025 5:09am
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Short XAUUSD.
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Trader#A042
Jul 30, 2025 6:39am
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gigachad powell will increase the rate to troll trump.
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Trader#F165
Jul 30, 2025 6:47am
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0.25% cut rate imo, powel wants to calm trump admin abit, long xauusd/nasdaq
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Trader#8A19
Jul 30, 2025 9:54am
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Data you point is a massage one. Sounds like fed.
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Trader#DB5A
Jul 30, 2025 10:00am
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Let’s pray for rate cut , small one will do : )
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Trader#3708
Jul 30, 2025 10:20am
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Fed might surprise market with a sudden cut! Gold & bitcoin to the moon!
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Trader#3A59
Jul 30, 2025 10:50am
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Quoting Trader#3708
Fed might surprise market with a sudden cut! Gold & bitcoin to the moon!
Fed might surprise market with a sudden hike! Gold & bitcoin to hell!
Reply
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