Gold

i am out will look for buy opportunity if price break 3393 properly

I think 3370's will be a good buy in long term. But PA seems ambiguous right now.

Yep 3365-3370 will be good area for buy. 3367 is SWAP area and a possible pullback toward the 3,367 level could occur before any further upward move. A rebound from the SWAP zone might spark a fresh rally toward the 3,430 resistance.

Keeping out for time being.

Dive into Fundamental

GOLD went up on Tariffs (to cause recession)
However, Q1 US GDP went red mainly of massive import pre-tariffs season


GDP Q2 Nowcast



Which is also supported by green NFP and falling Unemployment rate.


Interest rate swap (white line) and Inflation Rate Swap(Orange line) are closing the GAP

Leaving to a hold on FED FOMC JULY 31.

GDP Rising and Inflation rising, leaving firms with piling profits and cash flows (we can see from investing.com earning calenders)
As a result of falling Real interest rate,

Folks dump risk free assets and chasing riskier assets classes. ANd piling profits are also pour into riskier assest, instead on long end yield curve

TLT D1


Riskier assets classes. WHY?
TINA- There is no other alternative


If we looked at debt-equity ratio of SPX companies, they are so big, that there debt literally mean nothing to them. So even if FED hike, Equities will continue to

Unlike Russell, their debt-equity ratio is massive, which explains why it is undeforming and didnt make ATH



WHAT DOes that mean for GOLD??

Before we dive into gold, lets dive into US-EU tariffs trade war?
EZ company are hitting hard with US tariffs, especially car manufacturers
VOLVO

The Mainstream talking about


So EZ is clearly at a disadvantage in this negotiation, and dont have much lever to pull unlike the US.

Many are expecting by AUG 1st, Deadline, EU will not be able to bring forward a good negotiation deal, and US will tap the 30% add + Baseline tariffs on EU.

EU will retaliate around 15-20% tariffs (+ their existing 10% duty) in case no interim deal is made (which is more likely)
Which is bullish for GOLD.

Returning to TINA,
As mentioned, big firms are moving Cash flow surplus into riskier assets, as inflation Swap momentum are picking up.
With Strong GDP, Rising Inflation, another hike from FED for the next policy move, may be a precautionary measures, but due to Households strong buying spree and strong momentum employment, money will continue to flow into these firms and their nominal profits will continue to ballooning while congress will keep pushing their debt ceiling as they did before.




GOLD
D1


Reviewed my pass short setups, and to change sentiments.
EVEN COT showed this sentiment
LONG are entering the market, OI picking UP, showing Momentum to the upside will more likely to hold when we mixed it to the above fundamental.



The only thing which is expected to Stopped or at least stopped TINA, is a Fall in GDP or Disinflation, which both have no sign to appear. Or even if they appear, if it bullish for GOLD (probably touch 5000 with this scenario).

However, the only short term risk, is US-EU trade negotiation. But when two EGO nations clash, neither will surrender. Which is good for Making money!

‏
Someone with a good heart?

Yeah market is slow.. waiting too for a buy opportunity

I am leaving all the three Limit orders for the rest of the day. (Crude trade management will be done by my MT4 EA code : )).. TP on all the orders is 3390... Will check and update tmrw morning... until then...

Today for short

The big question remains, can US really default?
ANy genius to answer me???

baggers

ChatGPT and Grook : As of July 22, 2025, the U.S. is not in immediate danger of default, but the risk exists if Congress does not act by August or September. The Treasury’s extraordinary measures provide a buffer, but the window is narrowing. Political negotiations will be critical, and while Congress has historically avoided default, the current political climate increases uncertainty. For the latest updates, monitor statements from the Treasury Department or congressional leaders.

This would have been a beautiful entry !

Today’s Bias: Long

• Failure to hold 3390 will flip the bias to short. So far, it hasn’t failed.

lesson learned : not be greedy ...get what you can
(not real acc)

Hold strong brother. Dont move a pip

It means you will hold the drawdown? And pour more fresh money when it goes 2000%?

IT was demo and i was kind of testing things but got a kinda good entry ( atleast people were upset that they couldn't get this move ) but yah its ended on breakeven (+2-4 pips) should have kept the sl right at the price instead of under the entry .....

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