US debt is now $37trn – should we be worried? | Crypto Craft

  • US debt is now $37trn – should we be worried?

    From bbc.com

    As Donald Trump cheered the passage of his self-styled, and officially named, Big Beautiful Budget Bill through Congress this week, long-sown seeds of doubt about the scale and sustainability of US borrowing from the rest of the world sprouted anew. Trump's tax-cutting budget bill is expected to add at least $3 trillion (£2.2 trillion) to the US's already eye-watering $37tn (£27tn) debt pile. There is no shortage of critics of the plan, not least Trump's former ally Elon Musk, who has called it a "disgusting abomination". The growing debt pile leaves some to wonder whether there is a limit to how much the rest of ... (full story)

Comment Options
Bones
Jul 5, 2025 4:41pm
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Quoting Zebi
{quote} extending tax cuts to billionaires wont help pay the debt but thats conservatives plan...it makes it easier to cut benefits on the trumptard imbeciles that voted for trump because of racist reasons much like u all did with brexit we'll see who fares worse since both countries are about equally racist against migrants LOL i fear because of humpty that americans may suffer more
It's not racist to have a border; it's common sense.
Low-skilled migrants in the UK cost £1.5 million if they live to 85, what logic is that?
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Bones
Jul 5, 2025 2:14pm
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Quoting 35T
{quote} How many times has a first world country defaulted? I’ll wait for you to look it up. Why don’t they? Because they can print and tax as much as they want, no limits. That’s obviously a bad solution, but while you can say the US might have to monetize its debt, you can’t say with any intellectual seriousness that they will “default”. You make blanket statements with zero evidence. The US is going to default. I do no due diligence. Both are obviously incorrect. Every public prediction I’ve made here has come true, despite you and almost everyone...
Every fiat currency ever invented has blown up. America has defaulted many times, including when it was gold-backed and took on the role of the world reserve. Inflation is a default!
The oldest fiat currency in existence is only the £.
You can't force the world to hold $ as the reserve.
Everything you said about the military and world reserve is a farce.
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Zebi
Jul 5, 2025 3:43pm
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you and vancarbon need to stop bunchin up ur panties bones...theres nothing catastrophic happening that cant be explained because of a dumbass republican administration LOL

japan has double the debt compared to its GDP and its currency is considered a safe haven so stop with the histrionics for once LOL

when USA gets to japans debt level than we can all worry

i posted this longterm chart on feb 14...valentines day bones

Quoting Zebi
so lets look at the dollar chart...i think will fall to the black line before bounces and starts falling down to the shaded area that's longterm support in the first chart it will break that longterm support sometime next year prolly after bouncing on and off of it for awhile like I noted in the second monthly chart it takes a very stable genius to bankrupt a nation but if anyone can I believe it will be trumpy that's the plan ill be trading the next couple years so just watch the dollar and short it on every bounce {image} {image}
and heres the chart i posted then
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Bones
Jul 6, 2025 9:24am
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Quoting 35T
{quote} Sorry, that’s incorrect. Treasuries are in line with Fed funds based on historical yield premiums.
Trump wants to lower the short-term rate, where the real yield right now is 2% and previously it was a negative real yield, manipulating the market against all those people who don't own assets.
Additionally, although federal funds have been reduced, longer-term rates have not decreased.
If Trump puts some yes man in there and lowers rates negatively for no good reason, the $ will tank, while real thing prices explode.
There's nothing normal about the treasury market whatsoever.
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Vancarbon
Jul 5, 2025 8:39am
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Quoting atillaken
If FED does not cut rates, Trump is deep trouble but really in big trouble. Customs taxes will not be enough to cover this difference as people will consume less.
There’s no way out of the US debt spiral if the current trajectory is in place . Permanent!

Default
QE

unless the deficit is cut drastically from 6% to 3% . It’s in the article in black and white.

The founder of the world's biggest hedge fund, Ray Dalio, believes that US borrowing is at a crossroads.
On its current trajectory he estimates the US will soon be spending $10tn a year in loan and interest repayments.
"I am confident that the [US] government's financial condition is at an inflection point because, if this is not dealt with now, the debts will build up to levels where they can't be managed without great trauma," he says.
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Vancarbon
Jul 6, 2025 2:11pm
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Quoting TraderTero
{quote} It's a fact that native populations in developed countries are shrinking. "In 2023, the birth rate for UK-born mothers in England and Wales reached a historic low, with 58.9% of newborns having two UK-born parents. Simultaneously, the percentage of births to mothers born outside the UK has been steadily increasing, reaching 31.8% in 2023. This shift is partly attributed to a decline in fertility rates among UK-born women and an increase in the number of births to immigrant mothers" Without sufficient immigration the whole population...
No , I think you’re missing the point here . The demographics are changing drastically due to not only the massive immigration influx but also the lack of prospects for the younger generations , affordable housing , job security etc , also burdened with the benefit culture from both the UK side and immigration. I’m far from anti immigrant, I do think most countries reach a saturation point and the UK has surpassed that level by a good margin .

I’ll state it here and now , the Reform Party will start to encroach and out manoeuvre the opposition on this agenda alone . I’m watching the same trends play out across many countries with similar issues .
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35T
Jul 5, 2025 11:58am
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Quoting Vancarbon
{quote} There’s no way out of the US debt spiral if the current trajectory is in place . Permanent! Default QE unless the deficit is cut drastically from 6% to 3% . It’s in the article in black and white. The founder of the world's biggest hedge fund, Ray Dalio, believes that US borrowing is at a crossroads. On its current trajectory he estimates the US will soon be spending $10tn a year in loan and interest repayments. "I am confident that the [US] government's financial condition is at an inflection point because, if this is not dealt with...
What’s the point of posting this over, and over, and over? This has to be at least the 20th time I’ve seen you post how the US will “default”.

I assume you know the definition of that word and that it’s impossible for it to happen, so I have to assume you are just writing this to support a politically biased article written by an extremely biased “news” source.

Everyone knows what the debt is, they knew it yesterday, today, and tomorrow. But what is every worldwide investor actually doing? Not what are biased people with ill intent writing, what are people actually doing? They are buying US stocks and US bonds with both hands non stop. That’s a simple provable and undisputed fact. A fact that says you claiming the US is bankrupt is ludicrous.

Will the debt be a problem of its not addressed? Of course, but that’s a long way off. Lots of time to get things back on the right track. I see a lot of people on this website express extreme joy and happiness at the prospect of the US going under. That just shows how uneducated everyone here is. What do you think happens to your country if the US somehow implodes? Simple and accurate analogy, what happens if you corner a mother bear with her cubs in the wild?

The US has the strongest economy and strongest military in the world. You really think the US will simple roll over and die? Is that what a mother bear does? Or does it do everything possible to tear you to shreds? Don’t be so gleeful about the US somehow going under, they have enough firepower to kill every living thing on the planet. How exactly are you and your county going to be magically fine?
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35T
Jul 5, 2025 2:35pm
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Oh look another chicken post by Van. The so called trader on a trading website that can’t make a single trading call lol.

You personally and intentionally insult me and my country, and that makes you somehow a good person? The sickness is severe apparently.

I only posted her because of an idiotic statement that said US default is guaranteed. Don’t make ridiculous statements and I won’t need to pint out how dumb they are.
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35T
Jul 5, 2025 4:04pm
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Quoting Bones
{quote} Someone has to take that printer away, cause it's like heroin. You're still coming at this from a political stance when it's very basic math. A great modern economy is 3-5% growth, and your deficit is 7%. There is NO coming back from this when everyone realises YOU CAN'T PAY YOUR DEBT. YOU'RE GOING TO DEFAULT through sheer arrogance. PS, Musk is on my side.
I will absolutely vote for Musk candidates. I got more than a little angry when he was forced out of DC for trying to do something that needs to be done.
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35T
Jul 5, 2025 5:10pm
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Quoting Bones
{quote} It's not racist to have a border; it's common sense. Low-skilled migrants in the UK cost £1.5 million if they live to 85, what logic is that?
Don’t use common sense with liberals, they will always call you racist, I’m starting to think it’s one of the only words they know.

I’d be happy to help anyone, legal or not, in the US who wants to work, pay taxes, obey the law, and not take government handouts. They could replace the democrats lol.
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Bones
Jul 5, 2025 3:30pm
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Quoting 35T
My view. I have recommended hard assets forever, holding cash makes zero sense except short term while you are choosing what asset to buy. I don’t understand people who buy most bonds, after taxes and inflation it’s a terrible deal. Therefore I’d never recommend buying US treasuries and holding them. Yes the US has too much debt, I’m not at all happy about the big bill. All expenses need to be cut, nothing spared. But how does that translate to trading? Don’t hold any fiat currency except when you have to short term. Own things, businesses, stocks,...
There isn't enough time because you can't outgrow the debt; you have to default on the current path, and this term is very apt and not political.
Inflation is a default because dollars buy less.
If the deficit is 9% you can't outgrow it, ever.(when debt to GDP is over 100%)
How you default if you own the printer is inflation.
BTW
I'm not on the left at all. I wanted Trump to win; alas, he's just another liar.
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Bones
Jul 5, 2025 3:44pm
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Quoting Vancarbon
Ignore everyone here , however I’d recommend listening to this mans advice : The founder of the world's biggest hedge fund, Ray Dalio, believes that US borrowing is at a crossroads. On its current trajectory he estimates the US will soon be spending $10tn a year in loan and interest repayments. "I am confident that the [US] government's financial condition is at an inflection point because, if this is not dealt with now, the debts will build up to levels where they can't be managed without great trauma," he says. The first option is a...
Yeah, at least that's a plan
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Bones
Jul 6, 2025 8:22am — Edited
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Quoting Zebi
{quote} in america most immigrants end up working as farm laborers,in fast food food joints or for landscapers mowing whiteys lawn....so youre saying whitey brits are doin all those physical jobs in UK cause i find that hard to believe since that would make brits the only white society that isnt lazy and would prefer to gamble or trade for a living LOL
America voted to lower migration and control its borders!
The UK has a housing crisis, even if Angela Rayner meets a record build of 1.5 million target, this only covers the ongoing migration during their term.
Spoiler alert, she won't hit anywhere near that target.
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Bones
Jul 6, 2025 3:20pm
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Quoting TraderTero
{quote} I'd rather have my property value increase than drop 50-100%. In japan they are giving out properties for free. Try living in a shrinking economy for a while and ask again.
you won't because the Finnish people won't exist, all that will be there is cess pool of crime, wakey wakey
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Bones
Jul 6, 2025 3:33pm
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Quoting Vancarbon
{quote} I struggle to watch what Sweden has become. It’s lost its identity.
Exactly, V, you're importing large groups of people with no stake in society and then expecting them to pay the next generation's pensions??? What could go wrong?
Sectarianism is in bound, even in the UK, which failed to stop Europe's madness.
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Bones
Jul 7, 2025 6:50am — Edited
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Quoting Zebi
{quote} bones...how much more crime is there per capita now because of darkies than lets say when the Krey brothers ran amok in england?
It's in the statistics which don't care about skin colour.
The only thing to say about the UK statistics is that police have often chosen not to record ethnicity to avoid tensions. There's a big scandal ongoing right now regarding this cover-up.
Our high streets are riddled with money laundering cash cows, such as candy shops, vape shops, barbers, and car washes.
I would imagine a lot of the money is regarding the boat people, which is a whole government-funded criminal industry in its own right.
Statistics don't lie, and we're starting to see some results from recent campaigning.
The UK has generally become a less safe place in my lifetime, post krays
The way to look at the numbers is that it's a very high crime per capita with unvetted foreign nationals.
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Bones
Jul 7, 2025 7:18am
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Quoting TraderTero
UK: Crime against individuals and households has generally decreased over the last 10 years with some notable exceptions, such as sexual assault. However, there have been increases across some crime types in the latest reporting period.24.4.2025
You always want to misdirect from the discussion, ask the government, and that's what they say, yet most people don't bother reporting any crime unless very serious.
Shoplifting is basically legal.There are many no-go areas in the Uk now.

Please read the final line and make sure you understand who's coming to your country to pay pensions later.


The way to look at the numbers is that it's a very high crime per capita with unvetted foreign nationals.
This is an actual fact.
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Zebi
Jul 7, 2025 7:24am
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Quoting Bones
{quote} It's in the statistics which don't care about skin colour. The only thing to say about the UK statistics is that police have often chosen not to record ethnicity to avoid tensions. There's a big scandal ongoing right now regarding this cover-up. Our high streets are riddled with money laundering cash cows, such as candy shops, vape shops, barbers, and car washes. I would imagine a lot of the money is regarding the boat people, which is a whole government-funded criminal industry in its own right. Statistics don't lie, and we're starting...
Hi there, I recently came across an article claiming nearly a quarter of sexual offences were committed by foreign nationals.

This data came from the Centre for Migration Control, seemingly through a freedom of information request to the MOJ.

I had not heard of CMC so looked them up, I’m very confused by what I found.

CMC describe themselves as “a think tank committed to controlling and reducing migration to Britain” The website has no information on members, employees etc anything like that.

They have 11 published research reports, 3 of these 11 cannot be opened. All are written by a man called Robert Bates who refers to himself as the Research Director.

Centre for Migration Control is the trading name of Athelney Campaigns Ltd

Athelney Campaigns Ltd is a private limited company, incorporated in March 2024. They have one listed individual.

The director Robert Bates.

His is the only name I can find connected to the company.

I attempted to look for the data from the FOI on the CMC website, but couldn’t find it so looked thought all the FOI requests to the MOJ that are public.

I found a few requesting data in some way referring to nationality/immigration status etc and criminality. All were still being processed or had been refused.

Interestingly I found three requests from a Rob Bates. I can’t say if it’s the same man. But these were the three requests;

“Translation, interpretation and language services costs” “Deportation orders against foreign criminals” “Expenditure on equality, diversity and inclusivity”

Sorta seems like it could be him.

What I can actually find on Robert Bates is odd.

One report on the CMC website ends with “Robert Bates, Research Director at the Centre for Migration Control said: quote from Robert”

Robert Bates wrote that and every other report, he’s quoting himself.

The CMC supposed “data and research” has been used by a number of papers, mainly the Sun, the daily express and GBnews (no surprise there)

But anything I can find either comes from already released data or from FOI requests by the CMC which I can find no evidence of. Which even for this lot is reckless.

CMC has 11.2k followers on Twitter (X). Robert Bates has appeared on GBnews multiple times

He was supposedly the research executive for Get Britain Out. And a researcher for Campaign for Democratic Trade, who I can only find on Twitter (X)and have 6 followers

This is what I’ve been able to find. It seems like you run around in circles. Almost everything on Bates is claims from news reports, no one else seems to be connected to CMC and I there doesn’t appear to be any evidence of the data they supposedly received through a FOI request

I was wondering if anyone had come across the CMC or Robert Bates. And if you have any information on either

(To clarify I am in no way support these outlets or what they stand for. I’m just incredibly fascinated to see where this leads, knowing their habit of using dodge sources)

just like that guy i had difficulty finding anything on your centre or robert bates

there are some youtube videos of him spewing nonsence tho

maybe statistics from a less virulent anti immigration rightwing knucklehead will be more believable?
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Bones
Jul 7, 2025 7:51am
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Quoting TraderTero
UK: Crime against individuals and households has generally decreased over the last 10 years with some notable exceptions, such as sexual assault. However, there have been increases across some crime types in the latest reporting period.24.4.2025
please check if this is correct
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Zebi
Jul 7, 2025 8:02am
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Quoting Bones
{quote} You're arguing a completely different subject. Tell me, what's the point when I bring much higher rates of crime per person? That's actually been caught and tried. Whats the angle exactly
everything you post off that dodgey centre site is about immigrant crime so im trying to find how violent whitey is in your country by going back and looking thru historical crime rates in britain when it was predominately pastey white
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Bones
Jul 7, 2025 8:10am
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Quoting Vancarbon
It was the same rationale that Zebi is using/implying that allowed grooming gangs to carry out acts of sexual assaults on children for decades , whilst the fear of being labelled racist allowed them to not only to perpetuate their crimes but also their numbers . It took an absolute stink from the media and certain influential people to actually get a public inquiry into the scale of these crimes , otherwise it would have been whitewashed over . Starmer was actually director of public prosecution at the time .
yeah, thats a deep rabbit hole Zebi would never believe
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Bones
Jul 7, 2025 10:52am
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Quoting W0lfram
In Germany foreigners represent 13% of population, the commit 35% of crimes. (35/13)/(65/87) = 3.6 times the risk of committing crimes compared to Germans. Asylum seekers - 2%, 8.5% crimes = 4.56 relative risk 20% of prisoners are Muslim, while they represent ~6% of population. The gap shrinks after controlling for age and sex to 1.8 RR {image} 2023 Report {image}
It's a simple formula that doesn't require knowing the entire crime history of any country, which is beyond Zebis' comprehension.
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Vancarbon
Jul 5, 2025 12:19pm
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Quoting 35T
{quote} What’s the point of posting this over, and over, and over? This has to be at least the 20th time I’ve seen you post how the US will “default”. I assume you know the definition of that word and that it’s impossible for it to happen, so I have to assume you are just writing this to support a politically biased article written by an extremely biased “news” source. Everyone knows what the debt is, they knew it yesterday, today, and tomorrow. But what is every worldwide investor actually doing? Not what are biased people with ill intent writing,...
Firstly, I’ll answer your initial question , then I’ll dissect the rest of the nonsense.

I replied in response to the article itself , take a cursory glance above and you might notice the headline . After that read the article : it generally helps ! Default is mentioned within the three alternatives .

I’m not quite sure you actually know what you’re talking about if you genuinely believe there’s no chance of default .

You’re constantly doing the same monologue, with the same ad nauseam statements without any due diligence and the laissez-faire attitude - “we’re the US and have the fiat currency of the world “ - we can’t default .

I’m not sure what the last paragraph is referring to, except a weird analogy , you’ve gone off on a tangent and anti-US rant .

I’m not anti-American or anti anything , I just say it how I see it . I’m afraid you’ll just have to suck it up or use the filter. I recommend the latter if I annoy you that much .
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Vancarbon
Jul 5, 2025 2:28pm
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I was waiting for you to show up Bones , Those charts you produce are second to none . In fact I nearly mentioned your charts knowing unequivocally they nullify the noise.

Don’t expect any reasonable, rational response or debate here .

Your old saying stands true - There’s no arguing with a ………..
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Vancarbon
Jul 5, 2025 4:32pm — Edited
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Quoting Zebi
{quote} extending tax cuts to billionaires wont help pay the debt but thats conservatives plan...it makes it easier to cut benefits on the trumptard imbeciles that voted for trump because of racist reasons much like u all did with brexit we'll see who fares worse since both countries are about equally racist against migrants LOL i fear because of humpty that americans may suffer more
BS Zebi .

It’s not racism at all , it’s infrastructure. Look at the size of the UK , look at the population growth then come back to me without the racist diatribe. We’re decimating green areas of natural beauty in our drive to build houses to keep pace with demand . Look at the crossings from Calais on a daily basis , uncharted waters and uncharted numbers .

Don’t go down this route if don’t know what you’re talking about , re: the racist card . America has every right to protect its borders , as does any country . The UK is a small, beautiful island unlike the vastness of the US we can’t absorb unlimited numbers.

Again, go back to the Iraq wars , Arab spring , Middle East turmoil for the exodus and mass migration of refugees . Culpability sits with the US for another foreign policy f- ck up .
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Vancarbon
Jul 6, 2025 3:24pm
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Quoting Bones
{quote} you won't because the Finnish people won't exist, all that will be there is cess pool of crime, wakey wakey {image} {image}
I struggle to watch what Sweden has become. It’s lost its identity.
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Vancarbon
Jul 7, 2025 7:38am
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Look forget the ethnicity , criminal background or ideologies of anyone coming to the UK - just do the maths .

With an influx of Nearly 20,000 asylum seekers having arrived in Britain via small boats so far this year, a 50% increase from last year .

Net Migration:
Net migration (the difference between immigration and emigration) has been a significant factor in population growth, adding between 500,000 and 600,000 people to the population each year until 2026.


To use an analogy -the UK is a 4 seater car , stop trying to fit in 5 and use a common sense approach . This factor alone is the main political driving force across Europe and the UK ( despite Zebis attempts to imply racism ) it’s fundamentals which are driving the logic for more border control.
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W0lfram
Jul 7, 2025 10:38am — Edited
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In Germany foreigners represent 13% of population, they commit 35% of crimes. (35/13)/(65/87) = 3.6 times the risk of committing crimes compared to Germans.

Asylum seekers - 2%, 8.5% crimes = 4.56 relative risk

20% of prisoners are Muslim, while they represent ~6% of population.
The gap shrinks after controlling for age and sex to 1.8 RR

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2023 Report
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35T
Jul 5, 2025 3:18pm
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Now there’s sone good humor right there lol .
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The Fool
Jul 6, 2025 12:28pm
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This is the way.....

https://www.yahoo.com/news/elon-musk...001743315.html
Zebi
Jul 7, 2025 7:56am
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when i have time ill look thru this blimey site LOL

i always like using brit slang

https://www.gov.uk/government/statis...cal-crime-data
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Vancarbon
Jul 7, 2025 7:10am
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One word :

Rotherham
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bel3ouchi
Jul 5, 2025 10:32am
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It's just a number
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mbefus
Jul 6, 2025 10:04am
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At what point down this cavernous trail to hell did we collectively think we might possibly pull ourselves around and climb out of this slow suicide of crushing debt? Provide the year and/or $ amounts.
35T
Jul 5, 2025 12:33pm
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Quoting Vancarbon
{quote} Firstly, I’ll answer your initial question , then I’ll dissect the rest of the nonsense. I replied in response to the article itself , take a cursory glance above and you might notice the headline . After that read the article : it generally helps ! Default is mentioned within the three alternatives . I’m not quite sure you actually know what you’re talking about if you genuinely believe there’s no chance of default . You’re constantly doing the same monologue, with the same ad nauseam statements without any due diligence and the laissez-faire...
How many times has a first world country defaulted? I’ll wait for you to look it up.

Why don’t they? Because they can print and tax as much as they want, no limits. That’s obviously a bad solution, but while you can say the US might have to monetize its debt, you can’t say with any intellectual seriousness that they will “default”.

You make blanket statements with zero evidence. The US is going to default. I do no due diligence. Both are obviously incorrect. Every public prediction I’ve made here has come true, despite you and almost everyone else here disagreeing with me. How is that possible if I do no due diligence?

Make a public call as a trade, this is a trading website after all. Based on your comments you have been short US stocks for 1k S&P points. What’s your prediction now? Otherwise I guess I’m confused why you don’t just post on one of the many anti US Facebook groups. You will get a lot of people there to agree with you.

The last paragraph is simple. Just look at the comments here on news articles for a couple weeks. Look how many joyfully predict the end of the US. If that does come to pass you are talking about an actual ww3 where only a few super powers survive and billions die. Why are they so happy to predict that?
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35T
Jul 5, 2025 2:18pm
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Quoting Vancarbon
{quote} That’s good , at least a starter for 10 , you read the article - no need to look it up and an admittance that QE and tax increases are bad lol , considering the current bill . There’s no blanket statement ! You simply read what you want and that ego of yours is concerning . Tell me again ( for the umpteenth time ) how long have you been trading ? Suffice to say I was stagging the UK REC’s as a young man which makes me a total newbie . Please just ignore me, I think it’s better for your mental health .
I know it’s tough, you just want to make outrageous statements here so the US haters will agree. Must be very annoying for you to have someone actually challenge you lol.

So my requests are simple, this is a trading website, make an actual trading call based on your overwhelming socialist knowledge. Otherwise go post non stop US hate on 4chan.

It would also be nice to say something new, go back and look how many times you have said, in one way or another, the US is bankrupt. Did you think no one heard you the first 20 times, do you think money managers around the world come here to read your 21st post saying the same thing, and thought, wow I never knew about US debt until Van pointed it out?
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35T
Jul 5, 2025 2:28pm
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Quoting Bones
{quote} Every fiat currency ever invented has blown up. America has defaulted many times, including when it was gold-backed and took on the role of the world reserve. Inflation is a default! The oldest fiat currency in existence is only the £. You can't force the world to hold $ as the reserve. Everything you said about the military and world reserve is a farce. {image} {image}
Inflation is a default? Wow that’s either the dumbest or funniest thing posted here lol. You can’t make up your own definition of words. Default means you do not pay your obligations at all. That’s not my definition that’s the definition.

Inflation comes from monetizing the debt, yes, and it’s bad. Which is exactly why I responded to the lies from Van. He used the word default which is just another politically motivated lie. Use the word monetize and you are telling the truth. Words matter.

I’m not saying the world has to use the dollar as the reserve currency, but it’s obvious to most everyone that the reason they do is because of the strong economy and strong military.

If what people here predict comes true, the US will be faced with war or collapse. You honestly think they won’t choose war? A war your country will lose?

You guys would be much better off getting your governments and citizens to stop buying US debt. That’s at least a concrete action to help the situation instead of making ridiculous comments. Maybe that would convince the corrupt politicians to stop overspending my money.
Reply
35T
Jul 5, 2025 2:37pm
Permalink
Quoting Vancarbon
{quote} You didn’t answer Bones statement . Read what he wrote and respond accordingly without going off on a tangent . I can highlight or paraphrase if you want the specific poignant parts .
Happy to. Right after you make your trading call. Or it’s just all hot hair signifying nothing?
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35T
Jul 5, 2025 2:48pm
Permalink
My view.
I have recommended hard assets forever, holding cash makes zero sense except short term while you are choosing what asset to buy. I don’t understand people who buy most bonds, after taxes and inflation it’s a terrible deal. Therefore I’d never recommend buying US treasuries and holding them.

Yes the US has too much debt, I’m not at all happy about the big bill. All expenses need to be cut, nothing spared. But how does that translate to trading? Don’t hold any fiat currency except when you have to short term. Own things, businesses, stocks, real estate, etc.

There is plenty of time for the US to right the ship. Posting chicken little extreme comments hurts new traders because it makes them think they can trade off of it, which they can’t. I was extremely bullish.US stocks and posted so many times for the last 600 S&P points. Then Friday, before the futures drop, I said I was looking for a pullback.

Spend more time looking at actual charts of price action and stop trying to guess what random headlines mean.
Reply
35T
Jul 5, 2025 4:03pm
Permalink
Quoting Bones
{quote} The US stock market is melting up; history tells us it doesn't end well. The dollar fell 10% this year, versus other fiat and over 30% versus gold and many other metals. Yet the stock market hasn't moved more than this 10% dollar fall...
Can you show a post where you predicted stocks were going to all time highs? I ask because I did just that. So if you didn’t know we were gong to all time highs, why would your prediction of a crash be trusted?

Inflation is and has never been “default”. Show me one country in the world that agrees with that. I’ve posted that the Fed and Feds destroyed the middle class with inflation because politicians are corrupt. Ok, but again that’s been going on for decades. Own real assets and you are just fine.

I taught my kids in 2nd grade that fiat currencies are just worthless paper, so while hard assets are real, currencies are not. Been that way our whole lives, I don’t see what that has to do with today. Saying fiat currencies aren’t really worth anything is like saying that the sky is blue.

I remember well trading the Euro when it was 1.50. Did the US collapse? Let me know when the Euro goes over 1.50 and ten year treasuries go over 5%. Then the government will intervene in a big way. If and only if that intervention fails is there anything to really worry about.

People worrying about a US default is ludicrous compared to the threat AI poses to your society. Every public company has one and only one goal. Maximum net earnings per share. Cutting humans, which are extremely expensive, is a great way to increase earnings.
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35T
Jul 5, 2025 5:07pm
Permalink
Quoting Bones
{quote} I made 24 thousand posts in 18 years, your mr 2025 {image}
That’s doesn’t answer my question. I dislike when people quote permabears, they are always bearish and wrong 99.9% of the time. Their opinions are completely irrelevant. Traders have to make correct calls to have your current calls have weight. I honestly don’t know how long you have been bearish so I asked. But I can say I’ve been working in the professional trading industry for a long time so I would never have time to read that many posts let alone write them lol.
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35T
Jul 5, 2025 7:55pm
Permalink
Quoting PiipPool
{quote} If they were actually buying our debt then the rates on treasuries wouldn't be as high as they are now.
Sorry, that’s incorrect. Treasuries are in line with Fed funds based on historical yield premiums.
Reply
35T
Jul 5, 2025 8:01pm
Permalink
Quoting Bones
{quote} This is not a call, it's chit chat, saying something is like that means nothing. Besides, I put it on a chart because I know you're wrong. Why is it going up? It is NOT good. Tell me the reason it's going up that doesn't revolve around utter fiscal incompetence {image}
I know why it’s going up, as does any serious and experienced professional trader. It has to do with how fund flows and money managers work.

That’s not the call I meant, I was posting unregistered for quite awhile. Van kept telling me to shut about me saying the market was going up and buy dips with a trailing stop. I’m the only one who said it like that if you really want to look for it.

I’ve posted what and when my calls were many times, I happened to be right on all of them. But not doubt a bit of it was luck. However I made calls based on historical probability whereas most everyone else here called me an idiot for the calls based on their emotional reactions to news headlines.

My only question to you was if you were bullish then you are turning bearish, that’s something of note. If you have been bearish for months, and you are remaining bearish is not something of note,
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TraderTero
Jul 6, 2025 2:29am
Permalink
Quoting Bones
{quote} It's not racist to have a border; it's common sense. Low-skilled migrants in the UK cost £1.5 million if they live to 85, what logic is that?
I doubt that number if they work and pay taxes the same way as any other native person. All immigration should be legal but without sufficient immigration the UK population would start to shrink like in most developed countries.

One main argument for Brexit was too many immigrants coming from EU. The end result has been that over all immigration has increased substantially with less Europeans and much more immigration from India, Pakistan and Bangladesh. I guess UK prefers to have more diversification.
TraderTero
Jul 6, 2025 3:14am
Permalink
Quoting Vancarbon
{quote} Your points are pertinent Tero . The key word used to make Bones statement is “ low skilled “ ie .low wages with government subsidies/benefits . It’s a complex subject, though the undocumented arrival of thousands more channel crossing migrants has increased substantially post Brexit . This is being addressed allegedly by a new ability of French police to enter the water to intercept the boats . Undocumented immigrants will actually change the political system in the UK , Reforms popularity is rising faster than any other...
I was mainly referring to legal immigration. There are no simple solutions to this. I think Canada has a quite good system. However, they can control their borders much easier than European countries.
Zebi
Jul 5, 2025 3:21pm
Permalink
Quoting Bones
{quote} Every fiat currency ever invented has blown up. America has defaulted many times, including when it was gold-backed and took on the role of the world reserve. Inflation is a default! The oldest fiat currency in existence is only the £. You can't force the world to hold $ as the reserve. Everything you said about the military and world reserve is a farce. {image} {image}
bones...we've been thru this how many times?

the dollar fall is just temporary till democrats return to power...fukhead republicans always kill the dollar because of tax cuts kind of like what ur liz truss tried to pull LOL

this is a chart i made 5 years ago to quiet down trumptard idiots at a different chatsite that said biden will be bad for the dollar
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Zebi
Jul 5, 2025 3:34pm
Permalink
Quoting Bones
{quote} Every fiat currency ever invented has blown up. America has defaulted many times, including when it was gold-backed and took on the role of the world reserve. Inflation is a default! The oldest fiat currency in existence is only the £. You can't force the world to hold $ as the reserve. Everything you said about the military and world reserve is a farce. {image} {image}
how long was i sayin in the cable thread before i left to hang out at an american IRC chat that the dollar gona fall back to the election level on this chart

you conservatives are braindead fuks all over the world cause if you look at the pound chart its been falling since thatchers regime while the dollar always rebounds when dems take over and fix the mmess the idiot conservatives cause

the dollar gona fall back to the first trump lows until democrats regain control of congress in the midterms next year
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Bones
Jul 5, 2025 3:41pm
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Quoting 35T
My view. I have recommended hard assets forever, holding cash makes zero sense except short term while you are choosing what asset to buy. I don’t understand people who buy most bonds, after taxes and inflation it’s a terrible deal. Therefore I’d never recommend buying US treasuries and holding them. Yes the US has too much debt, I’m not at all happy about the big bill. All expenses need to be cut, nothing spared. But how does that translate to trading? Don’t hold any fiat currency except when you have to short term. Own things, businesses, stocks,...
The US stock market is melting up; history tells us it doesn't end well.
The dollar fell 10% this year, versus other fiat and over 30% versus gold and many other metals.
Yet the stock market hasn't moved more than this 10% dollar fall...
Reply
Bones
Jul 5, 2025 3:53pm
Permalink
Quoting Zebi
you and vancarbon need to stop bunchin up ur panties bones...theres nothing catastrophic happening that cant be explained because of a dumbass republican administration LOL japan has double the debt compared to its GDP and its currency is considered a safe haven so stop with the histrionics for once LOL when USA gets to japans debt level than we can all worry i posted this longterm chart on feb 14...valentines day bones {quote} and heres the chart i posted then {image}
Someone has to take that printer away, cause it's like heroin.
You're still coming at this from a political stance when it's very basic math.
A great modern economy is 3-5% growth, and your deficit is 7%. There is NO coming back from this when everyone realises YOU CAN'T PAY YOUR DEBT.
YOU'RE GOING TO DEFAULT through sheer arrogance.
PS, Musk is on my side.
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Zebi
Jul 5, 2025 3:58pm
Permalink
thats why my signature says short trump cause everything fell off a cliff as soon as he took office

ive said my peace in the cable thread months ago and im not gona repeat all that here but the dollar gona continue falling with bounces that may last weeks or even a month but that doesnt mean GU will keep goin up....most likely it will plateau and range sideways as dollar falls to 88 cause britain is worse shape than america and its currency will never have safe haven status again
Reply
Zebi
Jul 5, 2025 4:09pm
Permalink
Quoting Bones
{quote} Someone has to take that printer away, cause it's like heroin. You're still coming at this from a political stance when it's very basic math. A great modern economy is 3-5% growth, and your deficit is 7%. There is NO coming back from this when everyone realises YOU CAN'T PAY YOUR DEBT. YOU'RE GOING TO DEFAULT through sheer arrogance. PS, Musk is on my side.
extending tax cuts to billionaires wont help pay the debt but thats conservatives plan...it makes it easier to cut benefits on the trumptard imbeciles that voted for trump because of racist reasons much like u all did with brexit

we'll see who fares worse since both countries are about equally racist against migrants LOL

i fear because of humpty that americans may suffer more
Reply
Bones
Jul 5, 2025 4:38pm
Permalink
Quoting 35T
{quote} Can you show a post where you predicted stocks were going to all time highs? I ask because I did just that. So if you didn’t know we were gong to all time highs, why would your prediction of a crash be trusted? Inflation is and has never been “default”. Show me one country in the world that agrees with that. I’ve posted that the Fed and Feds destroyed the middle class with inflation because politicians are corrupt. Ok, but again that’s been going on for decades. Own real assets and you are just fine. I taught my kids in 2nd grade that fiat...
I made 24 thousand posts in 18 years, your mr 2025
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Bones
Jul 5, 2025 5:28pm
Permalink
Quoting 35T
{quote} That’s doesn’t answer my question. I dislike when people quote permabears, they are always bearish and wrong 99.9% of the time. Their opinions are completely irrelevant. Traders have to make correct calls to have your current calls have weight. I honestly don’t know how long you have been bearish so I asked. But I can say I’ve been working in the professional trading industry for a long time so I would never have time to read that many posts let alone write them lol.
This is not a call, it's chit chat, saying something is like that means nothing.
Besides, I put it on a chart because I know you're wrong. Why is it going up? It is NOT good.
Tell me the reason it's going up that doesn't revolve around utter fiscal incompetence
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Bones
Jul 6, 2025 7:50am — Edited
Permalink
Quoting TraderTero
{quote} I doubt that number if they work and pay taxes the same way as any other native person. All immigration should be legal but without sufficient immigration the UK population would start to shrink like in most developed countries. One main argument for Brexit was too many immigrants coming from EU. The end result has been that over all immigration has increased substantially with less Europeans and much more immigration from India, Pakistan and Bangladesh. I guess UK prefers to have more diversification.
No, the UK doesn't prefer it; the UK has voted directly for lower immigration since 2016 in every major election.
The cost number is right according to the OBR, which is basically the government propaganda machine.
Here's the chart.
Note that when they refer to UK residents, they're not referring to workers.
Also, note that a high percentage of migrants don't work. Less than 20% those who came in the Boris wave came on a worker visa.
The major point is there a net drain day 1.
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Bones
Jul 6, 2025 8:11am
Permalink
Quoting 35T
{quote} I know why it’s going up, as does any serious and experienced professional trader. It has to do with how fund flows and money managers work. That’s not the call I meant, I was posting unregistered for quite awhile. Van kept telling me to shut about me saying the market was going up and buy dips with a trailing stop. I’m the only one who said it like that if you really want to look for it. I’ve posted what and when my calls were many times, I happened to be right on all of them. But not doubt a bit of it was luck. However I made calls based...
Give me the good economic reason its going up
is the stock market going up or $ going down?
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Zebi
Jul 6, 2025 8:11am
Permalink
Quoting Bones
{quote} No, the UK doesn't prefer it; the UK has voted directly for lower immigration since 2016 in every major election. The cost number is right according to the OBR, which is basically the government propaganda machine. Here's the chart. Note that when they refer to UK residents, they're not referring to workers. Also, note that a high percentage of migrants don't work. Less than 20% those who came in the Boris wave came on a worker visa. The major point is there a net drain day 1. {image}
in america most immigrants end up working as farm laborers,in fast food food joints or for landscapers mowing whiteys lawns....so youre saying whitey brits are doin all those physical jobs in UK cause i find that hard to believe since that would make brits the only white society that isnt lazy and would prefer to gamble or trade for a living LOL
Reply
Bones
Jul 6, 2025 12:14pm
Permalink
Quoting TraderTero
{quote} Do you have the numbers for low wage native workers? Also, do those stats include illegal immigrants? Low wage jobs are a burden for the government regardless of the origin of the worker.
It's going to be the same burden, isn't it? We're talking importing burdens here.
Illegals and non workers will be even worse.

Yes, they put all UK citizens in the metric because our combined effort loses money.
The UK has a 5% deficit & 100% Debt to GDP.
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Bones
Jul 6, 2025 1:13pm — Edited
Permalink
Quoting TraderTero
{quote} It's a burden you have to take a long as you allow employers exploit work force with too low salaries. With better pay you would have more native people working on certain jobs. However, in the long run without immigration the population would start to shrink like in Japan. In Finland the native population is currently around 5M and without immigration it has been estimated it to shrink to about 1.5M within the next 100 years. At that point most people would be over 60 and there would not be anyone to take care of them. You should look at...
lol, longer term is even worse, look at the numbers..
It's a never-ending population expansion, a world without borders.
This kind of policy crushes the young who already live here.
Zebi talks about Japan, but Japan has made an economy that no one can see a future in.
They had ZERO growth in 30 years, but he's not bothered about that future.
Regardless the votes in, this stops or civil war, you choose with your nutty vision.
That narrative is dead and buried.
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Bones
Jul 6, 2025 2:27pm
Permalink
Quoting TraderTero
{quote} It's a fact that native populations in developed countries are shrinking. "In 2023, the birth rate for UK-born mothers in England and Wales reached a historic low, with 58.9% of newborns having two UK-born parents. Simultaneously, the percentage of births to mothers born outside the UK has been steadily increasing, reaching 31.8% in 2023. This shift is partly attributed to a decline in fertility rates among UK-born women and an increase in the number of births to immigrant mothers" Without sufficient immigration the whole population...
so what
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Zebi
Jul 6, 2025 5:44pm — Edited
Permalink
Quoting mbefus
At what point down this cavernous trail to hell did we collectively think we might possibly pull ourselves around and climb out of this slow suicide of crushing debt? Provide the year and/or $ amounts.
reagan started the breaking up of companies and off-shoring manufacturing and jobs overseas
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Zebi
Jul 6, 2025 5:49pm
Permalink
Quoting Bones
{quote} you won't because the Finnish people won't exist, all that will be there is cess pool of crime, wakey wakey {image} {image}
bones...how much more crime is there per capita now because of darkies than lets say when the Krey brothers ran amok in england?
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Bones
Jul 7, 2025 7:27am
Permalink
Quoting Zebi
{quote} Hi there, I recently came across an article claiming nearly a quarter of sexual offences were committed by foreign nationals. This data came from the Centre for Migration Control, seemingly through a freedom of information request to the MOJ. I had not heard of CMC so looked them up, I’m very confused by what I found. CMC describe themselves as “a think tank committed to controlling and reducing migration to Britain” The website has no information on members, employees etc anything like that. They have 11 published research reports, 3 of...
Freedom of information is directly from government statistics.
Go right ahead and dispute the statistics I posted in this thread with a counter.
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Zebi
Jul 7, 2025 7:38am
Permalink
Quoting Bones
{quote} Freedom of information is directly from government statistics. Go right ahead and dispute the statistics I posted in this thread with a counter.
my original question asked what britains crime rate was decades ago

Quoting Zebi
{quote} bones...how much more crime is there per capita now because of darkies than lets say when the Krey brothers ran amok in england?
so since youre refusing to answer that question and just keep reposting dubious statistics from a right wing knucklehead i asked AI and this is its answer:
------------------

Over the past 50 years, crime rates in Britain have fluctuated, with increases and decreases depending on the specific type of crime and time period. Generally, recorded crime rose throughout the latter half of the 20th century, but certain types of crime, particularly violent crime, have decreased in the past 30 years.
Here's a more detailed look:
Overall Crime Trends:
.
Recorded crime in England and Wales rose significantly throughout the 1960s, 70s, and 80s. For example, the number of recorded crimes rose from an average of one million in the 1960s to 3.5 million in the 1980s, according to the UK Parliament. However, more recent data indicates a decline in certain crime categories, especially violent crime, burglary, and car crime.
Violent Crime:
.
While violent crime increased in the early 2000s and has fluctuated since, it is down significantly compared to 30 years ago, according to the Crime Survey for England and Wales (CSEW).
Homicide:
.
Homicide rates in England and Wales have also shown a complex pattern, with a peak in the early 2000s, a decrease in the 2010s, and a subsequent rise before potentially leveling off.
Factors Influencing Crime:
.
Changes in police recording practices, victim reporting behavior, and socioeconomic factors all influence crime statistics, making it difficult to draw simple conclusions about long-term trends, according to Wikipedia.
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Bones
Jul 7, 2025 7:44am
Permalink
Quoting Zebi
{quote} my original question asked what britains crime rate was decades ago {quote} so since youre refusing to answer that question and just keep reposting dubious statistics from a right wing knucklehead i asked AI and this is its answer: ------------------ Over the past 50 years, crime rates in Britain have fluctuated, with increases and decreases depending on the specific type of crime and time period. Generally, recorded crime rose throughout the latter half of the 20th century, but certain types of crime, particularly violent crime, have decreased...
I haven't answered it because it's not relevant. I'm telling you straight: police numbers have fallen, and policing standards have fallen a lot in the last 20 years.
Crimes not recorded, and this is a well-known UK phenomenon.
I'm talking about the statistics we do have.
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Zebi
Jul 7, 2025 7:45am
Permalink
its hard for me to research britains crime rates from across the pond bones since im not familiar with your institutions and where to look for independent statistics but heres an article from last year

https://policinginsight.com/feature/...its-increased/
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Bones
Jul 7, 2025 7:49am
Permalink
Quoting Zebi
its hard for me to research britains crime rates from across the pond bones since im not familiar with your institutions and where to look for independent statistics but heres an article from last year https://policinginsight.com/feature/...its-increased/
You're arguing a completely different subject. Tell me, what's the point when I bring much higher rates of crime per person? That's actually been caught and tried.
Whats the angle exactly
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Bones
Jul 7, 2025 8:09am
Permalink
Quoting Zebi
{quote} everything you post off that dodgey centre site is about immigrant crime so im trying to find how violent whitey is in your country by going back and looking thru historical crime rates in britain when it was predominately pastey white
In fact, the statistics are better and more available in the EU.
In the UK, you have to ask the right question, and even then, the gov can withhold.
These statistics have never been outright published, which is basically a cover-up.
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Zebi
Jul 7, 2025 9:00am — Edited
Permalink
Quoting Vancarbon
Yes , it’s just a whitey conspiracy theory using Zebs vernacular . He won’t even delve into it as it doesn’t suit his own agenda . All bar none are outright pure racists and bigots in the UK if you believe his narrative.
britians voted for brexit in 2016 and it took effect in 2020....i dont know but i presume the tory government at least was deporting illegals from that time on like humpty is doin now in usa so why are crime statistics bouncing higher after england severed EU ties and its immigration policies?

this will be the end of the road for me with this topic since its hard enough trying to solve americas problems without me wasting time gettin sidetracked with britains measley ones

https://www.visionofhumanity.org/vio...ing-in-the-uk/

and lets not forget that alot of these blacks committing crimes are from caribbean nations which were and some still are particulary jamaica in the commonwealth rather than african blacks

so those would be legal migrants
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Bones
Jul 7, 2025 10:12am — Edited
Permalink
Quoting Zebi
{quote} britians voted for brexit in 2016 and it took effect in 2020....i dont know but i presume the tory government at least was deporting illegals from that time on like humpty is doin now in usa so why are crime statistics bouncing higher after england severed EU ties and its immigration policies? this will be the end of the road for me with this topic since its hard enough trying to solve americas problems without me wasting time gettin sidetracked with britains measley ones https://www.visionofhumanity.org/vio...ing-in-the-uk/...
You assume wrong about numbers and any departures whatsoever
, a government chart good enough for you?
Get Brexit Done, Boris Johnson has his own record 1.2 million entries by lowering entry standards.
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Vancarbon
Jul 5, 2025 12:45pm — Edited
Permalink
Quoting 35T
{quote} How many times has a first world country defaulted? I’ll wait for you to look it up. Why don’t they? Because they can print and tax as much as they want, no limits. That’s obviously a bad solution, but while you can say the US might have to monetize its debt, you can’t say with any intellectual seriousness that they will “default”. You make blanket statements with zero evidence. The US is going to default. I do no due diligence. Both are obviously incorrect. Every public prediction I’ve made here has come true, despite you and almost everyone...
That’s good , at least a starter for 10 , you read the article - no need to look it up and an admittance that QE and tax increases are bad lol , considering the current bill .

There’s no blanket statement ! You simply read what you want and that ego of yours is concerning .

Tell me again ( for the umpteenth time ) how long have you been trading ? Suffice to say I was stagging the UK REC’s as a young man which makes me a total newbie .

Please just ignore me, I think it’s better for your mental health .
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Vancarbon
Jul 5, 2025 2:33pm
Permalink
Quoting 35T
{quote} Inflation is a default? Wow that’s either the dumbest or funniest thing posted here lol. You can’t make up your own definition of words. Default means you do not pay your obligations at all. That’s not my definition that’s the definition. Inflation comes from monetizing the debt, yes, and it’s bad. Which is exactly why I responded to the lies from Van. He used the word default which is just another politically motivated lie. Use the word monetize and you are telling the truth. Words matter. I’m not saying...
You didn’t answer Bones statement .

Read what he wrote and respond accordingly without going off on a tangent . I can highlight or paraphrase if you want the specific poignant parts .
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Vancarbon
Jul 5, 2025 2:50pm
Permalink
I think your response says it all actually.

Another rant .

I’ll dignify the site and take my leave , allowing your ego intact and thinking you had the last word . I’ll leave a trader of your standing and trading experience of ( what was it now -35 years from recollection,) however I’d need to check back and collate the 700 posts stating this, but I’m reasonably certain it was 35 years ) to make the calls as you’ve been the sole individual source of my inspiration and guidance on this site .


In fairness your last post was far more balanced .

Well done
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Vancarbon
Jul 5, 2025 3:14pm
Permalink
Evening Schweet still smarting ( vernacular)

Short S&P , Short Schweet , Short 35T

You can always rely on Schweet after a drubbing to come back and attempt ( flaccidly ) to make an attempt at retribution by marking up any posts that disagree with certain posters lol
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Vancarbon
Jul 5, 2025 3:40pm
Permalink
Ignore everyone here , however I’d recommend listening to this mans advice :

The founder of the world's biggest hedge fund, Ray Dalio, believes that US borrowing is at a crossroads.
On its current trajectory he estimates the US will soon be spending $10tn a year in loan and interest repayments.

"I am confident that the [US] government's financial condition is at an inflection point because, if this is not dealt with now, the debts will build up to levels where they can't be managed without great trauma," he says.

The first option is a drastic reduction in government spending, a big increase in taxes or both.
Ray Dalio suggests that cutting the budget deficit from its current 6% to 3% soon could head off trouble in the future.

He says first option . In honesty. it’s the only viable option
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Vancarbon
Jul 6, 2025 2:42am
Permalink
Quoting Trader#4326
{quote} dalio is right. right now the us govt is paying almost 1 trilly for debt interest. this is how united kingdom lost its empire and had to hand over the superpower status to america in the 1950s.
That’s correct.

I’d rather you log in though Zebi , I’d recognise that style of writing and mixture of historical facts anywhere ( unless you have a doppelgänger) on here .
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Vancarbon
Jul 6, 2025 2:51am
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Quoting TraderTero
{quote} I doubt that number if they work and pay taxes the same way as any other native person. All immigration should be legal but without sufficient immigration the UK population would start to shrink like in most developed countries. One main argument for Brexit was too many immigrants coming from EU. The end result has been that over all immigration has increased substantially with less Europeans and much more immigration from India, Pakistan and Bangladesh. I guess UK prefers to have more diversification.
Your points are pertinent Tero .

The key word used to make Bones statement is “ low skilled “ ie .low wages with government subsidies/benefits .

It’s a complex subject, though the undocumented arrival of thousands more channel crossing migrants has increased substantially post Brexit . This is being addressed allegedly by a new ability of French police to enter the water to intercept the boats .

Undocumented immigrants will actually change the political system in the UK , Reforms popularity is rising faster than any other party . This is a European wide issue as you know , allowing the rise of certain parties in every European state . It needs addressing and quickly .

I look at Sweden now and don’t recognise the country.
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Vancarbon
Jul 6, 2025 3:11pm — Edited
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Quoting TraderTero
{quote} Of course the demographics are changing. Always has and always will. My point is just that you should not blame immigration for most problems. It has also many positive affects. Immigration is just one part of the problem. You will see soon in US what happens when you start to block immigration and throw out existing immigrants.
The US is 40 times the landmass of the UK with 5 times the population , which brings me full circle back to infrastructure and saturation levels .

I’m not saying immigration is bad, it’s all about balance and control. Something sadly lacking , not only in the UK but across Europe as a whole .

Merkels reputation was tarnished because of the open border policy allowing 1m immigrants in without due diligence . She was the greatest politician of her era , that was her biggest mistake .

I’ll leave it there .
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Vancarbon
Jul 7, 2025 7:56am — Edited
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It was the same rationale that Zebi is using/implying that allowed grooming gangs to carry out acts of sexual assaults on children for decades , whilst the fear of being labelled racist allowed them not only to perpetuate their crimes but also their numbers .

It took an absolute stink from the media and certain influential people to actually get a public inquiry into the scale of these crimes , otherwise it would have been whitewashed over .

Starmer was actually director of public prosecution at the time .
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Vancarbon
Jul 7, 2025 8:16am
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Yes , it’s just a whitey conspiracy theory using Zebs vernacular .

He won’t even delve into it as it doesn’t suit his own agenda . All bar none are outright pure racists and bigots in the UK if you believe his narrative.
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W0lfram
Jul 7, 2025 1:45pm — Edited
Permalink
Quoting Trader#F133
{quote} The real question is how the gap shrinks (or doesn't) after expanding for known factors typically correlated with higher crime rates. Education, social status, financial status, etc.
Crucial factors but this is not what we usually get with refugee flows (education, etc)
PiipPool
Jul 5, 2025 5:52pm
Permalink
Quoting 35T
{quote} What’s the point of posting this over, and over, and over? This has to be at least the 20th time I’ve seen you post how the US will “default”. I assume you know the definition of that word and that it’s impossible for it to happen, so I have to assume you are just writing this to support a politically biased article written by an extremely biased “news” source. Everyone knows what the debt is, they knew it yesterday, today, and tomorrow. But what is every worldwide investor actually doing? Not what are biased people with ill intent writing,...
If they were actually buying our debt then the rates on treasuries wouldn't be as high as they are now.
Reply
Trader#4326
Jul 6, 2025 2:16am
Permalink
Quoting Vancarbon
{quote}The founder of the world's biggest hedge fund, Ray Dalio, believes that US borrowing is at a crossroads. On its current trajectory he estimates the US will soon be spending $10tn a year in loan and interest repayments. "I am confident that the [US] government's financial condition is at an inflection point because, if this is not dealt with...
dalio is right. right now the us govt is paying almost 1 trilly for debt interest.

this is how united kingdom lost its empire and had to hand over the superpower status to america in the 1950s.
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Trader#833D
Jul 6, 2025 5:03pm
Permalink
Quoting Vancarbon
{quote} The really sad part is stating the obvious and being labelled as racist and shutdown as it’s politically a no go area . Look at what’s come to light now AFTER decades of grooming gangs in Rotherham . The police , social services and politicians wouldn’t and couldn’t even acknowledge the scale of these crimes against young vulnerable girls , literally children . Only now after public enquiries and people like Musk highlighting the problem is the government acknowledged it . I watched the documentary “ 3 girls...
I agree with your statement. But that is the Western liberal politicans for. Every race has some kind of group with some type of crimes. White, blacks, brown and so on. Federal government needs to be strict and firm on facts. If for example England has majority of crime problem with a middle east group and let's say majority of them are of muslim background, they need to address that period. If they are called racist, who cares, put your foot down and lay down the law. For example majority of serial killers are actually white men:

"In addition, 82 percent of American serial killers were white, 15 percent were black, and 2.5 percent were Hispanic. Eighty- seven percent operated alone, while 10 percent committed their crimes in pairs or groups. Some committed their crimes in specific geographic areas, while others traveled widely."

That is just the statistics and that is what they are trying to look for. Same thing with certain crimes, in Canada for example, in Toronto area, majority of street gangsters are NON-WHITE, they are blacks, brown like Indian, some Asians but not a lot. Most of street thugs in Toronto area are black and brown.

"In Canada, youth gang membership is disproportionately comprised of African Canadian, First Nations, and Caucasian youth, according to Public Safety Canada. Specifically, African Canadian youth make up the largest proportion (25%), followed by First Nations (21%), and Caucasian (18%) individuals. However, gang composition varies significantly by region, with some provinces and territories showing higher concentrations of certain ethnic groups, according to the Department of Justice Canada.
Here's a more detailed breakdown:
African Canadian:
Represent a significant percentage of youth gang members nationally, particularly in Ontario, Quebec, and Nova Scotia, according to the Department of Justice Canada.
First Nations:
High proportions of First Nations youth gang members are found in Saskatchewan, Alberta, and Manitoba.
Caucasian:
While a substantial portion of youth gang members overall, their representation varies by region.
Other Groups:
Asian, East Indian, Latino/Hispanic, and Middle Eastern youth are also represented in youth gangs, with varying proportions across the country.
Mixed Ethnicity:
Many gangs have members from two or more ethnic or racial groups."


The law needs to be lay down and respected and criminals need to be punished. The problem with UK is their Federal government is infested with this leftist woke liberal thing that does not make sense. Instead of them laying down the law, they are worried about pronounce that do not exist or make sense, and they are worried about hurting someone feelings. Western world needs a reset button, and needs better leaders to put the laws into effect and start cleaning out the trash and start making a better living for people that actually want to go to school, work and build houses, buildings, science, automation, AI, manufacturing, construction and so on.
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Trader#833D
Jul 7, 2025 9:16am
Permalink
Quoting Zebi
{quote} britians voted for brexit in 2016 and it took effect in 2020....i dont know but i presume the tory government at least was deporting illegals from that time on like humpty is doin now in usa so why are crime statistics bouncing higher after england severed EU ties and its immigration policies? this will be the end of the road for me with this topic since its hard enough trying to solve americas problems without me wasting time gettin sidetracked with britains measley ones https://www.visionofhumanity.org/vio...ing-in-the-uk/...
British rule, blahhhh, blahhhh, it is 2025, slavery has been gone long time ago. We get it you are either brown or black, and you are trying to justify your people crime in the Western world where you do not belong. No one cares, statistics are there, illegal flooded immigrants are the problem in Europe and need to be dealt with. End of this story.

Inserted Video


Everyone needs to learn from Denmark.
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hesron
Jul 5, 2025 7:23am
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3,000,000,000,000 USD
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Bones
Jul 6, 2025 2:31pm
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Reform came from nowhere, and would win an election tomorrow,
people are that sick of the SHORT TERM migration sicking plaster
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: Screenshot 2025-07-06 at 20.29.56.png Size: 116 KB
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Vancarbon
Jul 5, 2025 3:55pm
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Got to love Zebi .

Not only a purist , practically a wordsmith, great charts though .

“ Bunchin up your panties “

Good post Zebi
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atillaken
Jul 5, 2025 8:30am — Edited
Permalink
If FED does not cut rates, Trump is in deep trouble but really in big trouble. Customs taxes will not be enough to cover this difference as people will consume less.
Reply
chiche
Jul 5, 2025 2:20pm
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Priceless
Reply
TraderTero
Jul 6, 2025 3:31am
Permalink
Quoting Vancarbon
{quote} Your points are pertinent Tero . The key word used to make Bones statement is “ low skilled “ ie .low wages with government subsidies/benefits . It’s a complex subject, though the undocumented arrival of thousands more channel crossing migrants has increased substantially post Brexit . This is being addressed allegedly by a new ability of French police to enter the water to intercept the boats . Undocumented immigrants will actually change the political system in the UK , Reforms popularity is rising faster than any other...
Studies indicate that there is no real difference between immigrants and native people on low wage jobs receiving government subsidies. I see the main problem being low wage jobs as every job should pay a salary which allows you to live without subsidies. For example if a sales assistant makes now £10 per hour and is then subsidized for £5 per hour by the government this is a direct handout to employer from other tax payers. It would be much better for the people to pay some extra 50p for a hamburger meal than rotate the funds via government.
Topucu
Jul 6, 2025 6:20am
Permalink
Quoting 35T
{quote} What’s the point of posting this over, and over, and over? This has to be at least the 20th time I’ve seen you post how the US will “default”. I assume you know the definition of that word and that it’s impossible for it to happen, so I have to assume you are just writing this to support a politically biased article written by an extremely biased “news” source. Everyone knows what the debt is, they knew it yesterday, today, and tomorrow. But what is every worldwide investor actually doing? Not what are biased people with ill intent writing,...
You both are missing the fact bro. USA in such an inflected point from where may emperor started to grind lower. Debt can be a useful tools if can manage intelligently but it can be a burden and too much dangerous if you let it to eat you. It just can eat you like a giant anaconda. Ya, no one saying USA will fall overnight, no empire did. Here is the point that what USA is doing to address this issue and we all are seeing instead of solve the problem, a big beautiful bill been delivered from labor room and that’s what fuleing fear on market especially currency market because first impact of dent we will see via currency devaluation not via stock market.
Reply
TraderTero
Jul 6, 2025 9:54am
Permalink
Quoting Bones
{quote} No, the UK doesn't prefer it; the UK has voted directly for lower immigration since 2016 in every major election. The cost number is right according to the OBR, which is basically the government propaganda machine. Here's the chart. Note that when they refer to UK residents, they're not referring to workers. Also, note that a high percentage of migrants don't work. Less than 20% those who came in the Boris wave came on a worker visa. The major point is there a net drain day 1. {image}
Do you have the numbers for low wage native workers? Also, do those stats include illegal immigrants?
Low wage jobs are a burden for the government regardless of the origin of the worker.
TraderTero
Jul 6, 2025 1:03pm
Permalink
Quoting Bones
{quote} It's going to be the same burden, isn't it? We're talking importing burdens here. Illegals and non workers will be even worse. Yes, they put all UK citizens in the metric because our combined effort loses money. The UK has a 5% deficit & 100% Debt to GDP.
It's a burden you have to take a long as you allow employers exploit work force with too low salaries. With better pay you would have more native people working on certain jobs. However, in the long run without immigration the population would start to shrink like in Japan. In Finland the native population is currently around 5M and without immigration it has been estimated it to shrink to about 1.5M within the next 100 years. At that point most people would be over 60 and there would not be anyone to take care of them.

You should look at these things in longer and multilevel perspective instead of just focusing on one type of cost.
TraderTero
Jul 6, 2025 1:46pm
Permalink
Quoting Bones
{quote} lol, longer term is even worse, look at the numbers.. It's a never-ending population expansion, a world without borders. This kind of policy crushes the young who already live here. Zebi talks about Japan, but Japan has made an economy that no one can see a future in. They had ZERO growth in 30 years, but he's not bothered about that future. Regardless the votes in, this stops or civil war, you choose with your nutty vision. That narrative is dead and buried. {image}
It's a fact that native populations in developed countries are shrinking.

"In 2023, the birth rate for UK-born mothers in England and Wales reached a historic low, with 58.9% of newborns having two UK-born parents. Simultaneously, the percentage of births to mothers born outside the UK has been steadily increasing, reaching 31.8% in 2023. This shift is partly attributed to a decline in fertility rates among UK-born women and an increase in the number of births to immigrant mothers"

Without sufficient immigration the whole population will start to shrink resulting in GDP reduction. Other issues will follow.
TraderTero
Jul 6, 2025 2:54pm
Permalink
Quoting Vancarbon
{quote} No , I think you’re missing the point here . The demographics are changing drastically due to not only the massive immigration influx but also the lack of prospects for the younger generations , affordable housing , job security etc , also burdened with the benefit culture from both the UK side and immigration. I’m far from anti immigrant, I do think most countries reach a saturation point and the UK has surpassed that level by a good margin . I’ll state it here and now , the Reform Party will start to encroach and out...
Of course the demographics are changing. Always has and always will. My point is just that you should not blame immigration for most problems. It has also many positive affects. Immigration is just one part of the problem. You will see soon in US what happens when you start to block immigration and throw out existing immigrants.
TraderTero
Jul 6, 2025 3:12pm
Permalink
Quoting Bones
{quote} so what
I'd rather have my property value increase than drop 50-100%. In japan they are giving out properties for free. Try living in a shrinking economy for a while and ask again.
TraderTero
Jul 7, 2025 3:51am
Permalink
Quoting Vancarbon
{quote} I struggle to watch what Sweden has become. It’s lost its identity.
That's the cost of expanding your economy with immigration. On top of that mistakes have been made regarding integration. Overall it's a mistake to take immigrants from different cultures and religions which totally contradict the values of the new home land.

Overall Sweden has done very well as their national debt is around 40% and economy has been growing quite fast.
TraderTero
Jul 7, 2025 7:08am
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UK: Crime against individuals and households has generally decreased over the last 10 years with some notable exceptions, such as sexual assault. However, there have been increases across some crime types in the latest reporting period.24.4.2025
35T
Jul 5, 2025 3:04pm
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Don’t see any trading calls in there lol.
Reply
Trader#833D
Jul 6, 2025 11:43am
Permalink
Quoting 35T
{quote} What’s the point of posting this over, and over, and over? This has to be at least the 20th time I’ve seen you post how the US will “default”. I assume you know the definition of that word and that it’s impossible for it to happen, so I have to assume you are just writing this to support a politically biased article written by an extremely biased “news” source. Everyone knows what the debt is, they knew it yesterday, today, and tomorrow. But what is every worldwide investor actually doing? Not what are biased people with ill intent writing,...
Thank you for explaining this in a plain and simple way. You are 100% right.
Reply
Trader#833D
Jul 6, 2025 1:34pm
Permalink
Quoting Bones
{quote} It's going to be the same burden, isn't it? We're talking importing burdens here. Illegals and non workers will be even worse. Yes, they put all UK citizens in the metric because our combined effort loses money. The UK has a 5% deficit & 100% Debt to GDP.
But yet somehow GBPUSD still going higher and will go higher.
Reply
Trader#833D
Jul 6, 2025 1:36pm
Permalink
Quoting Bones
{quote} Trump wants to lower the short-term rate, where the real yield right now is 2% and previously it was a negative real yield, manipulating the market against all those people who don't own assets. Additionally, although federal funds have been reduced, longer-term rates have not decreased. If Trump puts some yes man in there and lowers rates negatively for no good reason, the $ will tank, while real thing prices explode. There's nothing normal about the treasury market whatsoever. {image} {image} {image}
But Dollar is falling regardless and will fall to about 90.
Reply
Trader#833D
Jul 6, 2025 2:23pm
Permalink
Quoting Vancarbon
{quote} No , I think you’re missing the point here . The demographics are changing drastically due to not only the massive immigration influx but also the lack of prospects for the younger generations , affordable housing , job security etc , also burdened with the benefit culture from both the UK side and immigration. I’m far from anti immigrant, I do think most countries reach a saturation point and the UK has surpassed that level by a good margin . I’ll state it here and now , the Reform Party will start to encroach and out...
The one scary thought is if these world leaders see that population is so big, they may create a WW3 on purpose to clear out some of the population. What are your thoughts on this opinion?
Reply
Trader#833D
Jul 7, 2025 8:38am
Permalink
Quoting Zebi
{quote} everything you post off that dodgey centre site is about immigrant crime so im trying to find how violent whitey is in your country by going back and looking thru historical crime rates in britain when it was predominately pastey white
Crime has gone up in every Western country, ever since they brought in Africans, muslims arabs. Of course not all of them, but a lot of them. Things use to be better, there was still crime, but the law was better, and you were allowed to stand up for yourself and defend yourself, with a legal gun and so on. Majority % of Africans and muslims, proved not to be a good and reliable part of Western society, and those that are not, they need to be stripped from their citizenship and sand back to wherever they came from. You can hate, not like or whatever, but you can't deny the fact, that white Europeans and Asians specifically Phillipinos, Japan, China and Korea are the most smart and most hard working people. That is a fact, it is all over the world, and you can't deny facts. It is in your face, every single day. Prove was wrong brown nose.
Reply
Trader#F133
Jul 7, 2025 11:07am
Permalink
Quoting W0lfram
In Germany foreigners represent 13% of population, the commit 35% of crimes. (35/13)/(65/87) = 3.6 times the risk of committing crimes compared to Germans. Asylum seekers - 2%, 8.5% crimes = 4.56 relative risk 20% of prisoners are Muslim, while they represent ~6% of population. The gap shrinks after controlling for age and sex to 1.8 RR {image} 2023 Report {image}
The real question is how the gap shrinks (or doesn't) after expanding for known factors typically correlated with higher crime rates. Education, social status, financial status, etc.
Reply
Trader#2FDF
Jul 5, 2025 8:12am
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Of coz worry the credibility of US bond has dropped and no one will buy the US bonds anymore lolzzzz zZZzzz
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Trader#60C8
Jul 5, 2025 3:16pm
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Just print money if required
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Trader#2FD4
Jul 6, 2025 7:37am
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Eveything will be fine, don't worry
Reply
Trader#833D
Jul 7, 2025 9:58am
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https://www.ethnicity-facts-figures....rrests/latest/
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