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Flying Dutchman

  • #11,261
  • May 22, 2025 4:02am May 22, 2025 4:02am
Quoting TimeTells
{quote} Hi Dave, Cheers pal. It is hard to write these and cover all aspects in words that folks grab and will understand. The bottom line is I believe (in my head & heart lol) that the market steps price up & down a target staircase on its way to a “destination”. If that was the case then trading between two targets seemed a good beginning for me. The (two) targets do not have to be one & the next as they appear on a chart, they could be two targets ultimately with many of the other targets inside the outer two. That is the traders choice imo....
Thank you
  • #11,262
  • May 22, 2025 4:09am May 22, 2025 4:09am
TT - GBPUSD, USDJPY, GBPJPY - would you agree that these days triangular arbitrage is no longer possible due to technological advancement, as far as a retail trader is concerned?
  • #11,263
  • May 22, 2025 4:35am May 22, 2025 4:35am
Quoting Danger-Mouse
TT - GBPUSD, USDJPY, GBPJPY - would you agree that these days triangular arbitrage is no longer possible due to technological advancement, as far as a retail trader is concerned?

Hi D-M,
Arb'ing (the three) is not something I have contemplated or tried. I would agree there would have been a time (pre Hi-Tech) when the variance occurred allowing such plays but even with a fast PC today the fact that you would have to have multiple brokers and almost a set price and nil spread (plus a good coder lol) to set up a nil leverage FIX API a/c (maybe) with prime of prime is past my pay grade .

Gimme a sweet spot asia & pre-franky where they (have to ?) take the market somewhere viable and leave some meat for the next Group (especially if they have been running price beforehand to suit a purpose) before the next major session openings (London & of course NY) and that will do me for what I need.

Speaking of the high end of town I really enjoyed the mini series Industry regarding the industry and NON-pair trading (ie real trading not retail CFDs).
Did you get a chance to see it D-M ?

https://www.imdb.com/title/tt10487600/

all the best pal
  • #11,264
  • May 22, 2025 4:49am May 22, 2025 4:49am
I haven't see it. Thanks for the recommendation. Loved the Big Short !

Ok, as I agree on the inability of retail traders to take advantage of cross currency price discrepancies, that leads me onto the next obvious question.....
Why trade a synthetic product that is just a calculation of 2 major pairs? If the triangular arbitrage is negligible then surely any levels or TA that presents on the GBPJPY chart are ONLY a direct result of what levels are being reacted to in it's major pairs? I know it was a favourite instrument of George and has relatively large pip swings, but as an independent instrument it doesn't make SENSE if you know what i mean. You wouldn't trade the SP500 divided by the Nasdaq now?
  • #11,265
  • Edited 5:19am May 22, 2025 5:08am | Edited 5:19am
Quoting Danger-Mouse
I haven't see it. Thanks for the recommendation. Loved the Big Short ! Ok, as I agree on the inability of retail traders to take advantage of cross currency price discrepancies, that leads me onto the next obvious question..... Why trade a synthetic product that is just a calculation of 2 major pairs? If the triangular arbitrage is negligible then surely any levels or TA that presents on the GBPJPY chart are ONLY a direct result of what levels are being reacted to in it's major pairs? I know it was a favourite instrument of George and has relatively...

Hahaa D-M,

Okay now I see the direction you wished to take.

Now I may confound a few here but this is my take.

I have tried to trade USDJPY in Asia and found sometimes it is asleep.
I have also tried to trade GBPUSD in asia and found it is also inconsistent at times.

With GBPJPY I have found that it has an apparent purpose when Asia/Tokyo is open and the Yenners may be mad gamblers over there who knows lol
(just an expression of course not a character judgement)

If we look at the only counter we get on mt4 which is an activity counter (mis-named imho as a volume indictor) I have noted that the GJ has the higher activity count of those three pairs IN ASIA which is when I hope to set my early profit for the day (market willing, naturally)

So it would make NO sense for me to trade anything other of the three pairs than GJ during the times that I personally am trading (Asia & pre-Franky) which I have of course proven to myself by trial & error over a period.

Post London I could switch to GBPUSD should I still be chasing a day's profit target, which would then come into "full blown play" for those edit (two) three hours after the NY open when BOTH those centres are open for trade until London closes (fixing time). And the Yenners () have moved well on to sushi & saki maybe .

Hope this explains somehow my preferences.
  • #11,266
  • May 22, 2025 5:55pm May 22, 2025 5:55pm
I'm not an Indicie Trader,
(I stuck with currencies after so many years just trying to see what the heck they were doing lol)


Still, I'm always interested how market mechanics play out on other instruments.

So,
a Day review from yesterday,
for what it's worth , on
US500
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: US500M15 day review 22may25.png Size: 15 KB
  • #11,267
  • May 23, 2025 4:55pm May 23, 2025 4:55pm
Okay lol, I wake up this morning and see maybe a hand grenade was thrown into the markets just before New York opened.

But nope, just another tweet maybe (Apple ? )

So a quick review look at the end-of-day GJ and its partners (UJ/GU)

I was out & away before all this happened lol, with just a modest day, but hey.
Many would have fared better (or worse) but I can only play with what they give us at the time

As always, trade safe (first) and then trade well.


.
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: UJ GJ GU cut.jpg Size: 320 KB
  • #11,268
  • May 23, 2025 5:07pm May 23, 2025 5:07pm
... and a quick follow up on the US500 from yesterday, why not


US500
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: US500M15 same as.png Size: 11 KB
  • #11,269
  • May 23, 2025 5:57pm May 23, 2025 5:57pm
As you say
Set the ambush
Lie in wait
Spring the trap
Bingo
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: USDJPYH1c.png Size: 33 KB
  • #11,270
  • May 23, 2025 6:10pm May 23, 2025 6:10pm
Quoting OAPDave
As you say Set the ambush Lie in wait Spring the trap Bingo {image}
  • #11,271
  • Edited 4:55am May 24, 2025 4:27am | Edited 4:55am
3/8 th - 4/8 th Octave in action
Attached Image(s) (click to enlarge)
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Click to Enlarge Name: USDJPYDailyb.png Size: 29 KB
  • #11,272
  • Edited 8:28am May 24, 2025 8:09am | Edited 8:28am
Russian Dolls ?
ps

If CARLING made Grids

THEY WOULD PROBABLY BE LIKE THIS !!!!
Attached Image(s) (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: USDJPYDailyc.png Size: 35 KB
Click to Enlarge Name: USDJPYH1d.png Size: 33 KB
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  • #11,273
  • May 25, 2025 5:56pm May 25, 2025 5:56pm
GBP and USD banks both enjoying a full days rest today

Trade safe & trade well if engaging
  • #11,274
  • May 25, 2025 8:05pm May 25, 2025 8:05pm
Easy picking
off to bed now
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: USDJPYM1x.png Size: 23 KB
  • #11,275
  • May 25, 2025 10:55pm May 25, 2025 10:55pm
I missed the meat of it fooling around, at home, way it goes. Best entry was around the RNQ .250

Back for Franky now, hope they have moved price hard (either way) in between.

Same old stuff (though) imo

All the best all, trade safe & trade well.

GBPJPY
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: GBPJPYM5 +12p net.png Size: 10 KB
  • #11,276
  • May 26, 2025 5:45pm May 26, 2025 5:45pm
Mr U from the BoJ will be holding a two day conference kicking off today where he will 'speak' with other Central Bankers & Academics ( )





https://www.forexlive.com/centralban...okyo-20250526/
Key topics include interest rate control, quantitative tightening, and how to respond to “inflation scares” triggered by supply shocks like the pandemic. An IMF paper warning of long-lasting inflation from such shocks will also be debated.
  • #11,277
  • May 27, 2025 5:03pm May 27, 2025 5:03pm
Quoting TimeTells
Mr U from the BoJ will be holding a two day conference kicking off today where he will 'speak' with other Central Bankers & Academics ( )
I'm not saying it was you, MrU, honestly
(just joking)


Quoting TimeTells
So a quick review look at the end-of-day GJ and its partners (UJ/GU) {image}
So,
From a USD (GBP) GRINDER day chart above


To a JPY GRINDER day chart, and its Majors yesterday
Trade safe, trade well all


.
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: Grinder JPY.png Size: 250 KB
  • #11,278
  • May 28, 2025 5:07pm May 28, 2025 5:07pm
Quoting Danger-Mouse
If the triangular arbitrage is negligible then surely any levels or TA that presents on the GBPJPY chart are ONLY a direct result of what levels are being reacted to in it's major pairs?

Cheers Danger,
I'm revisiting and looking again at those three instruments to watch once more their collective behaviours, thank you.
I am so familiar now with GJ is likely the main reason I stick so strong I guess.

GBPUSD
GBPJPY
USDJPY

.
Attached Image(s) (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: GBPUSDM15 trading above prev month hi.png Size: 11 KB
Click to Enlarge Name: GBPJPYM15 true to form.png Size: 13 KB
Click to Enlarge Name: USDJPYM15 not rocket science.png Size: 13 KB
  • #11,279
  • May 29, 2025 5:37pm May 29, 2025 5:37pm
Last full day of the trading month today.

Where will the big boys & institutions wish to be positioned at the ringing of the bell.

Trade safe & trade well all
  • #11,280
  • May 30, 2025 7:37pm May 30, 2025 7:37pm
Trading the GJ with an eye on its two partners in crime


Month (week & day) END

Trade well folks, June beckons
(and trade safe also )

USDJPY, GBPJPY, GBPUSD

.
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: End of Month May.jpg Size: 318 KB
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