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  • #72,701
  • Apr 15, 2025 3:57pm Apr 15, 2025 3:57pm
Here is every Inside Day of 2025, 60% of the time, it works every time.

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  • #72,702
  • Apr 15, 2025 4:00pm Apr 15, 2025 4:00pm
Quoting W0lfram
{quote} That's incorrect. There are no such regularities {image}
Fascinating. You don't cite any sources, so I guess it's your work? tireless statistician
  • #72,703
  • Apr 15, 2025 4:32pm Apr 15, 2025 4:32pm
Quoting Kwt4x
{quote} second day in low range. good news: no HH yesterday bad news: no break of low's yet(uptrend 2 HL's almost at same level) daytraders should wait for clear break then wait for pullback to enter. waiting is a pain but "Good things come to those who wait". {image}
2nd day without HH and not breaking HL's
both day/2days direction and range are flat and lowest range.
Wednesday is 50% of the week in TIME, so watch out for a break either way.

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"the public is not yet ready for it" W.D. GANN
  • #72,704
  • Apr 15, 2025 4:36pm Apr 15, 2025 4:36pm
Quoting Isabella_D
{quote} Fascinating. You don't cite any sources, so I guess it's your work? tireless statistician
who else would think to check such trifles
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Air force
  • #72,705
  • Apr 15, 2025 4:58pm Apr 15, 2025 4:58pm
Well, the range is 571, but the price only moves by about 236 points at max, so volatility decreases. That's why I always opt to use only 1/3 of the ADR for my TP or SL.
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  • #72,706
  • Edited Apr 16, 2025 3:11am Apr 15, 2025 5:11pm | Edited Apr 16, 2025 3:11am
Quoting RoelsMajor
Well, the range is 571, but the price only moves by about 236 points at max, so volatility decreases. That's why I always opt to use only 1/3 of the ADR for my TP or SL.
But ADR of what range? I see price action returning to normal by checking short term of ADR(3) with long term of ADR(60)

I have weekly range at 5,202, so about half of average 12 weeks or 1-quarter of the year.

The possible high and low targets of 3,309 and 3,130 may be of interest to some.

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  • #72,707
  • Edited 5:42pm Apr 15, 2025 5:23pm | Edited 5:42pm
Quoting Erebus
{quote} But ADR of what range? I see price action returning to normal by checking short term of ADR(3) with long term of ADR(60) I have weekly range at 5,202, so about half of average 12 weeks or 1-quarter of the year. The possible high and low targets of 3,300 and 3,130 may be of interest to some. {image}
Yeah, sorry, I forgot to mention it — the ADR/ATR is based on a 21-day period because on average, we trade around 21 days in a month, and that’s because we are Scalpers or Day Traders.

Then we move on to the risk we’re going to take today. For example, if I aim to make a 1% profit, and the contract size (according to the account) is $10 per pip, then I need to open a 0.17 lot position so that 1 unit of 191 pips would be worth either a 1% profit or a 1% loss. Amirite? I think this is the most important part, because in this thread, no one’s really talking about the actual risk being taken.

As for today’s analysis, it’s pretty simple — just look at the chart: the Dragon (EMA 50) is pointing up, so I’m more biased toward looking for Long opportunities rather than Shorts, which haven’t shown any clear signals yet. For now.

Then, for those with a large monthly trading fund, it doesn’t hurt to check TradingView at https://www.tradingview.com/symbols/...C1!/contracts/ to see the current lowest price — as a simple and free way to guide your trading decisions.

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  • #72,708
  • Apr 15, 2025 5:43pm Apr 15, 2025 5:43pm
Quoting RoelsMajor
{quote} Yeah, sorry, I forgot to mention it — the ADR/ATR is based on a 21-day period because on average, we trade around 21 days in a month, and that’s because we are Scalpers or Day Traders.
Great, thanks for that, I've been looking at the 3-day only because of this recent volatility, I think we can all agree that it has been way out line the "normal" ranges on all time frames, so only reasonable to check various setting IMHO.

Looks like an early move higher already but is it breakout or fakeout?

Time will tell.

Cheers.
It takes a lot for me to IGNORE you, but you can try.
  • #72,709
  • Apr 15, 2025 6:08pm Apr 15, 2025 6:08pm
Quoting RoelsMajor
{quote} Yeah, sorry, I forgot to mention it — the ADR/ATR is based on a 21-day period because on average, we trade around 21 days in a month, and that’s because we are Scalpers or Day Traders. Then we move on to the risk we’re going to take today. For example, if I aim to make a 1% profit, and the contract size (according to the account) is $10 per pip, then I need to open a 0.17 lot position so that 1 unit of 191 pips would be worth either a 1% profit or a 1% loss. Amirite? I think this is the most important part, because in this thread, no one’s...
Hi RoelsMajor,
I read your post with interest, especially this part: https://www.tradingview.com/symbols/...C1!/contracts/

I wasn’t aware that gold had a futures price curve extending into the future like that.
After a bit of research, I now understand these prices reflect collective market expectations or commitments at a future date.

I’d love to know how you actually use this data in your day-to-day decisions:
– Do you compare spot vs futures to anticipate reversals?
– Or do you use key expiry contracts to define SL / TP / bias zones?

Many thanks if you get the chance to share
  • #72,710
  • Apr 15, 2025 6:13pm Apr 15, 2025 6:13pm
Quoting azhantahir
Are we going to New HH? IMO. All the above is just my personal opinion. Please refer own preference for RRR. {image} {image}
Still inside equilibrium and has no willingness to reprice. Going to be? When and where? No one knows. I am still waiting for the theoretical structure. IMO
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Look right, we'll see the signs
  • #72,711
  • Apr 15, 2025 6:39pm Apr 15, 2025 6:39pm
Take is as you will! I hope it can help someone out there.

I talk about the consolidation break, where I got in, where I plan to exit, and my thoughts on where the market might go in the next few days depending on the news.

I know videos are annoying but I can put together some charts tonight to post as well to keep it simple!

Hope everyone is doing well.

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  • #72,712
  • Apr 15, 2025 6:53pm Apr 15, 2025 6:53pm
Gold is skyrocketing tonight, will he face correction at morning?
  • #72,713
  • Apr 15, 2025 7:03pm Apr 15, 2025 7:03pm
Quoting RoelsMajor
{quote} Yeah, sorry, I forgot to mention it — the ADR/ATR is based on a 21-day period because on average, we trade around 21 days in a month, and that’s because we are Scalpers or Day Traders. Then we move on to the risk we’re going to take today. For example, if I aim to make a 1% profit, and the contract size (according to the account) is $10 per pip, then I need to open a 0.17 lot position so that 1 unit of 191 pips would be worth either a 1% profit or a 1% loss. Amirite? I think this is the most important part, because in this thread, no one’s...
Theoretically and in terms of risk, today went well — let’s say if the buy zone in the yellow-circled area, it would have yielded 191 pips (573/3). Sometimes it works quite well, but what’s the win rate over a month, from every entry we make? That’s statistics. Otherwise, it’s not a system — just random chance we take each day. There has to be a clear and rigid set of rules.
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  • #72,714
  • Apr 15, 2025 7:08pm Apr 15, 2025 7:08pm
Quoting azhantahir
{quote} Still inside equilibrium and has no willingness to reprice. Going to be? When and where? No one knows. I am still waiting for the theoretical structure. IMO {image} {image} {image}
Before this, some of us are discussing about IB. Sharing about the theoretical structure can happen based on IB (Price Action IB - current probabilities). Depending on TF referring to either D1 or W1. IMO . That is why, I've mentioned, some of us have methods close to mine methods. Trade with honor
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  • #72,715
  • Apr 15, 2025 7:11pm Apr 15, 2025 7:11pm
Quoting Praetorion
{quote} was away for a few errands, but was popping in and out. Monday cycle was indeed consolidation at the top.. 3280 would be a level to watch
was telling this level was coming.. 3280
Candlesticks dont move markets, Volume does
  • #72,716
  • Apr 15, 2025 7:15pm Apr 15, 2025 7:15pm
Quoting Dnaxx
Gold is skyrocketing tonight, will he face correction at morning?
1st post, welcome to ForexFactory or FF, please note, it's a worldwide people here, so "tonight / morning" means nothing without a reference.

Gold does what it does; he or she, that's a debate for sure!

Have you heard of MissD?

Good Luck


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  • #72,717
  • Apr 15, 2025 7:22pm Apr 15, 2025 7:22pm
Quoting RoelsMajor
{quote} Theoretically and in terms of risk, today went well — let’s say if the buy zone in the yellow-circled area, it would have yielded 191 pips (573/3). Sometimes it works quite well, but what’s the win rate over a month, from every entry we make? That’s statistics. Otherwise, it’s not a system — just random chance we take each day. There has to be a clear and rigid set of rules. {image}
Wass glued to the screen watching the center squeeze around that area watching those shorts getting absorbed by institutions. morning il will post the foot print. interesting times ahead for gold.
Candlesticks dont move markets, Volume does
  • #72,718
  • Apr 15, 2025 7:24pm Apr 15, 2025 7:24pm
Quoting non8me
{quote} Hi RoelsMajor, I read your post with interest, especially this part: https://www.tradingview.com/symbols/...C1!/contracts/ I wasn’t aware that gold had a futures price curve extending into the future like that. After a bit of research, I now understand these prices reflect collective market expectations or commitments at a future date. I’d love to know how you actually use this data in your day-to-day decisions: – Do you compare spot vs futures to anticipate reversals? – Or do you use key expiry contracts to define...
Honestly, when it comes to day trading, I never really pay attention to those factors. Even during what you might call an "orange swan" event, like the one Trump created with his tariff regulations. However, for those who trade on a monthly basis, it’s common for forex traders to use such references—they follow them closely. But this isn’t universal, as even for currencies, some prices don’t adhere to futures contracts, like the Rupiah in my country. I set my TP and SL solely based on 1/3 of the daily ADR, as I find it uncomplicated. I live by the mindset that tomorrow chart doesn’t exist—only today chart matters. Similarly, I suppose monthly traders operate with the idea that tomorrow chart doesn’t exist, focusing only on the current month chart. It’s a bit odd, really. Lel
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  • #72,719
  • Apr 15, 2025 7:25pm Apr 15, 2025 7:25pm
Quoting Praetorion
{quote} Wass glued to the screen watching the center squeeze around that area watching those shorts getting absorbed by institutions. morning il will post the foot print. interesting times ahead for gold.
3300, 3400, 3500, 3600, 3700? Another weekly high for this week. IMO
Look right, we'll see the signs
  • #72,720
  • Apr 15, 2025 7:26pm Apr 15, 2025 7:26pm
Quoting PatienceFx
{image}
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