Preparing for the post USD as the world reserve currency

I’ll freak out the day, when I wake up and see the USD is through the roof. What that means is the contracts in USD are unwinding and there is a huge demand for USD. When most of those contracts would be settled, then the utility of USD in the global market goes significantly lower, and at that time the demand for USD will go so low that we can assume USD is not the world reserve currency anymore. The whole process may take between a few weeks to a few months. Then USD will be weakened significantly against almost everything else. Inflation and stagflation will make US an unstable country and uncertainty will be everywhere.

this scenario has a higher odds to happen this time than any other time in the past that I can think of. Note that this may not happen even for years or decades, but it’s good to be ready for a situation like that and position our portfolio so it can be a good hedge.

If dethroning would happen, what should be the action items in our to do list? Of course, when the temporary USD appreciation happens, that’s the best time to get rid of USD and bonds. The question is what should we buy?

Metals, such as gold and silver is an obvious bet. What are the other options? Let’s discuss and brainstorm.

Sounds a tad alarmist. What's happening speeds up divesting of dollars but only relatively speaking. It's already happening but it's complex to do, and there's no ready-made alternative. So it's the flow that changes, but still timeline of decades.

In terms of tracking it, the one definitive benchmark is bond yields (there are faster indicators than this but they all require a bit of heavy lifting). Trump has suggested that lots of the govt debt is 'fraud'. Unearthing 'fraud' and declaring it so is effectively defaulting on payments, sending yields through the roof and will trigger a worldwide instant recession and plunge USA into a pit that'd be hard to climb out of. That'll speed things up. It'd be cataclysmic but Treasury have already shouted him down on this, and even in his wildest moments I can't imagine he'd blunder into a USA hard default.

In terms of investment, the way I think of it falls back to the hierarchy of needs. If you strip away the middle comfort section you're into the basics - housing, infrastructure, food, energy, gold as you mention, crypto less so. Euro/GBP will gain off the back of USD falls for sure. CHF massively but given their propensity to intervene it's a dangerous call. Ironically the top of the pyramid, luxury goods, will likely rise as they did during Covid (y disparity, long story). Every disaster is an opportunity or whatever the phrase is.

wow this crap again, just hedge into Gold, if you have done your research properly then you will know gold will fly, also, 15 years ago many were saying the Dollar was cooked and look, if you had started to short back then you would be bankrupt many times over by now, shorting the largest economy in the world, well no hurry imo.

If the USD spikes due to unwinding contracts and a rush for liquidity, followed by a collapse when demand dries up, positioning correctly will be key. Metals like gold and silver are obvious safe havens, but other options include commodities (oil, agricultural products, and industrial metals), real assets (real estate, infrastructure investments), and strong foreign currencies (CHF, SGD, possibly CNY). Equities in regions less affected by USD instability, such as emerging markets with solid fundamentals, could also be a hedge. Some argue Bitcoin and other decentralized assets might play a role as well. The key is diversification—having a mix of hard assets, alternative stores of value, and exposure to economies that would benefit from a weaker USD. What’s your current positioning, and how much risk are you willing to take on this scenario?

If the dollar was about to lose its reserve status, the US wouldn’t just sit there and let it happen. They’d do whatever it takes to stop it, sanctions, wars, or regime changes. The power that comes with it is too big to give up. Come on now, they’d probably nuke everybody before they let that kind of power go.