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  • #43,821
  • Oct 27, 2024 10:34am Oct 27, 2024 10:34am
Quoting TrAndy1
Look at the end of 2018 where Trump begun a trade war with installing tariffs against China. Some very big markets players like in the size of a Blackrock decided to offload equities. We had a -25% drawdown in the SP500 end of 2018 because of that. It also caused higher inflation and then FED needed to raised rates too. All bad.
Alright since we have only one sides policy to deliberate on - very democratic of the Democrats to not provide anything of substance for perusal and deliberations but a continuation of the status quo which is not favouring Americans. Let me engage you on that anyway

Is America the only country leving tariffs? How about China and Europe on American goods? What is good for the goose, is it not good for the gander? Who is currently doing tariffs and the eco-war ? Who is suffering it now?

Your stands is only understandable giving your from Germany.
Without despair & distraught, focus on Patience to FRESH MOTiVES.
  • #43,822
  • Oct 27, 2024 10:44am Oct 27, 2024 10:44am
Quoting skyf
{quote} Alright since we have only one sides policy to deliberate on. Let me engage you on that anyway Is America the only country leving tariffs? How about China and Europe on American goods? What is good for the goose, is it not good for the gander? Who is currently doing tariffs and the eco-war ? Who is suffering it now? Your stands is only understandable giving your from Germany.
You did not understand it. Tariffs are no good nowhere. But there is a difference if one person is claiming to install huge tariffs on everything. And all experts do know that he cannot replace income taxes with tariffs, which is his goal. That is a second difference to actual tariffs across the globe from different countries. So Trump will likely increase and increase until the tariffs are so huge on everything that it is a fast (!) growing and developing trade war, which then can cause a bear market in the SP500. And -25% drawdown I do care. If tariffs would be installed modestly for a longer time the less growth potential on the US economy would be far less and the overall strength of the US economy would not justify a big bear market suddenly caused because of sudden huge tariffs, which is what Trump wants as he needs them to replace his income taxes. So there are lot of differences. But I want to stop here. I am not explaining you the whole economics and all effects and telling you the math.
  • #43,823
  • Oct 27, 2024 11:08am Oct 27, 2024 11:08am
Quoting TrAndy1
{quote} You did not understand it. Tariffs are no good nowhere. But there is a difference if one person is claiming to install huge tariffs on everything. And all experts do know that he cannot replace income taxes with tariffs, which is his goal. That is a second difference to actual tariffs across the globe from different countries. So Trump will likely increase and increase until the tariffs are so huge on everything that it is a fast (!) growing and developing trade war, which then can cause a bear market in the SP500. And -25% drawdown I do...
Trump is only claiming to reciprocate tariffs on countries who are already running unfair trade practices against US to get them to play right. I don't see him threatening New Zealand. It's very simple: what is good for the goose.....If you don't want tariffs don't do it to America goods....Any leader who loves his people and country want hesitate to pay those undoing his people with their own coin and that's what Trump is about IMH.

Good news...majority of Americans get it hence his packed rallies against the side of *vote for her because I'm black and have a VJ*..... and my opponent is orange Hitler.
Without despair & distraught, focus on Patience to FRESH MOTiVES.
  • #43,824
  • Oct 27, 2024 11:13am Oct 27, 2024 11:13am
Those experts have the same opinion like me. Why I am quite alone here on this thread with my view ? I just got another confirmation, and IMF is not a nobody. So again my question: Huge tariffs are not a good thing for nobody or ?

https://www.cnbc.com/2024/10/23/us-...ating-would-be-costly-for-everybody-imf-.html

Economy
U.S., China trade tariffs escalating would be ‘costly for everybody,’ IMF deputy director says
Published Wed, Oct 23 202411:51 AM EDT
https://image.cnbcfm.com/api/v1/imag...h=60&ffmt=webp
Sophie Kiderlin@in/sophie-kiderlin-b327b914a/@SKiderlin
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Key Points

 

  1. An escalation of trade and tariffs tensions between the U.S. and China would have economic consequences around the world, Gita Gopinath, deputy managing director of the International Monetary Fund said.
  2. “Output is going to be much lower than what we are projecting for all countries in the world, there’s going to be pressure on inflation, so that’s not the direction in which we should be going,” she told CNBC.
  3. China has also announced higher temporary tariffs on some imports from the U.S. as the tit-for-tat measures continue.

https://image.cnbcfm.com/api/v1/imag...h=422&vtcrop=y
watch now
VIDEO03:57
Trade tariffs escalating would be ‘costly for everybody,’ IMF’s Gopinath says

An escalation of trade and tariffs tensions between the U.S. and China would have “costly” economic consequences around the world, Gita Gopinath, deputy managing director of the International Monetary Fund told CNBC on Wednesday.

“We are seeing geopolitically driven trade around the world, which is why when you look at overall trade to GDP that’s holding up fine, but who’s trading with whom is certainly changing,” she said.


The U.S. and China are trading with one another less, and some parts of their trade is being re-routed through other countries, she added.

Trade tensions between the U.S. and China and the European Union and China have been mounting this year, with both the U.S. and EU implementing higher tariffs on some Chinese goods over what they claim are unfair trade practices from Beijing.

China has also announced higher temporary tariffs on some imports from the EU as the tit-for-tat measures continue.

If tariffs were escalated, modelling from the IMF suggests it would be “costly for everybody,” Gopinath told CNBC’s Karen Tso on the sidelines of the agency’s annual meeting in Washington.

“Output is going to be much lower than what we are projecting for all countries in the world, there’s going to be pressure on inflation, so that’s not the direction in which we should be going,” she explained.


https://image.cnbcfm.com/api/v1/imag...h=422&vtcrop=y
watch now
VIDEO02:30
Trump’s tariffs would ‘no doubt’ be inflationary: IIF’s Adams

Gopinath’s comments come after IMF Managing Director Kristalina Georgieva said last week that international trade would no longer be the “engine of growth” it once was, and that “retaliatory” trade measures could hurt those imposing them as much as their targets.

Tim Adams, CEO of the Institute of International Finance, also warned Wednesday that tariff proposals from U.S. presidential candidate Donald Trump would interrupt the path of disinflation and could lead to higher interest rates.

The IMF’s Gopinath said it would benefit both the U.S. and China to have “good working relations,” noting that this was also important for the rest of the world.

It is “in everyone’s self interest that these relationships are maintained,” she said.

The IMF warned in its recent World Economic Outlook report that increasing protectionist policies were a downside risk to growth.

“A broad-based retreat from a rules-based global trading system is prompting many countries to take unilateral actions. Not only would an intensification of protectionist policies exacerbate global trade tensions and disrupt global supply chains, but it could also weigh down medium-term growth prospects,” the report said.

  • #43,825
  • Oct 27, 2024 11:13am Oct 27, 2024 11:13am
German finance minister warns of retaliation if U.S. kicks off trade war
Published Fri, Oct 25 202411:55 AM EDT
https://image.cnbcfm.com/api/v1/imag...h=60&ffmt=webp
Sophie Kiderlin@in/sophie-kiderlin-b327b914a/@SKiderlin
Share
Key Points

 

  1. German Finance Minister Christian Lindner on Friday warned that if the U.S. kicked off a trade war with the European Union, there could be retaliation.
  2. “Trade controversy sees never winners, only losers,” Lindner told CNBC’s Karen Tso on the sidelines of the International Monetary Fund’s annual meeting in Washington, D.C.
  3. Trade is a key pillar of the German economy, and the U.S. is one of its most important trading partners.

https://www.cnbc.com/2024/10/25/ger...of-retaliation-if-us-kicks-off-trade-war.html
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------
I have not found any one person who has economic knowledge and is working in that area, who says installing huge tariffs are a good thing. And that regardless of any country. So why the USA is considering to harm themselves ? I do not get it. Please give me a serious source saying the opposite, that tariffs a good thing.

  • #43,826
  • Oct 27, 2024 11:15am Oct 27, 2024 11:15am
https://www.cambridge.org/core/serv...ng-the-us-china-trade-dispute-tariffs-div.pdf

Abstract This paper examines the economic implications of the tariff increases by the United States and by China during the Trump era trade dispute and the gains from their potential removal. The increases were dramatic, with the US raising tariffs on industrial products by a factor of six – with particularly large tariff increases on intermediate and capital goods – and China increasing its tariffs on US agricultural products more than five-fold. These changes distort trade and production decisions in both countries and undercut the global trading system. They resulted in substantial economic losses to each country, with import volumes reduced by 4.9% in China and 4.5% in the USA, and bilateral trade patterns were massively distorted. Their cost to the United States rose at the end of 2021, when the import expansion provisions of the Trump era Phase One Agreement expired. Negotiating the abolition of these costly and disruptive tariffs would generate substantial real income gains for both countries and help lower US consumer prices.

https://www.joebm.com/vol10/714-RJ0010.pdf

Abstract—During the 2016 presidential campaign, a consistent refrain from then-candidate Trump was to point to U.S. trade with China, and the agreements that enabled it, as primary cause of the loss of U.S. manufacturing jobs and intellectual property. He said China was responsible for “the greatest theft in the history of the world” and lambasted the U.S. trade deficit with China, which in 2016 stood at around $346 billion. The trade war caused economic pain on both sides and led to diversion of trade flows away from both China and the United States. This paper explores the effects of Chinese retaliatory tariffs on the Chinese economy during U.S and China trade war since 2018. Chinese retaliatory tariffs were almost wholly passed through into Chinese domestic prices, so that the entire incidence of the tariffs fell on Chinese consumers and importers, with no impact on the prices received by the U.S. exporters. The cumulative deadweight loss, a reduction in real income from the Chinese tariffs, is approximately $517 million in the whole year of 2018, with an additional cost of $6,321 million to Chinese consumers and importers in the form of tariff revenue transferred to the government.
----------------------------------------

Now I will stop talking about the effects on a raising trade war and talking about the US election. Enough is enough. I got provoked and I answered. Want to stop it now.
  • #43,827
  • Oct 27, 2024 11:32am Oct 27, 2024 11:32am
Quoting TrAndy1
Those experts have the same opinion like me.
"IMF experts" jfc, gotta hand to Tranny, he's always the king of the "self own."
Trade with confidence, trade without fear.
  • #43,828
  • Oct 27, 2024 11:32am Oct 27, 2024 11:32am
I'm not voting for either idiot of the so-called "major" parties for presidential candidates, so I have no horse in this race so to speak. The only thing I have to contribute to this conversation is that NOTHING will change so long as the US federal government continues to blatantly violate Article 1, Section 8 of the federal constitution and spend money on things it is not specifically authorized to do as per it's enumerated powers. It has no power to tax or spend beyond what is specifically enumerated in Article 1, Section 8 of the federal constitution, the rest is reserved to the states or the people. The federal government has no legitimate authority beyond that and it has tyrannically overstepped its bounds throughout the decades--under BOTH "major" parties. Both promise to continue to go on violating the constitution and their oaths of office, and they just disagree on what, not how much.

This article is well worth reading. It explains how replacing one tax for another tax really profits no one, unless the private income tax were completely abolished, and then we would get some semblance of personal privacy back, but it wouldn't actually improve our financial standing unless the federal government radically cut spending to begin with. Tax cuts mean nothing without spending cuts, it just creates bigger deficits and more inflation. Please take the time to read and comprehend this article, it's well worth a minute of your time to read: https://mises.org/mises-wire/trumps-...ne-tax-another

Back to trading, while we still can...
  • #43,829
  • Oct 27, 2024 11:38am Oct 27, 2024 11:38am
I am not amused that again rules has been changed at Quant Tekel. It got again stricter.

"Dear traders,

We are pleased to announce the following updates to your trading journey and some of our vision for the business in a formal setting.

FUNDED PROCESS
Fresh phase 2 passes are now completed in a 48 hour working period, payouts requests completed within the same period too - with the exception of a small number of traders requiring manual review. The vast majority of funded traders throughout migration have now received accounts, with reviews scheduled for the remainder very soon.

USA / CANADIAN TRADERS
Dx trade is actively being integrated. You will see accounts start to appear on your dashboard from today. They will be tradable from Tuesday for everyone, although many should be live to trade from Monday. We want to ensure the product is appropriate and will have also have app access shortly.

BST TRADING
Time is reversed by one hour in the UK, by one hour. This means the server needs to updated to reflect this change. Traders may use their accounts as usual but please be mindful that this will adapt:
•⁠ ⁠Trading hours
•⁠ ⁠Potential news events
•⁠ ⁠Change in trading sessions

Tomorrow will not count as a trading day for funded accounts, traders must adapt their payout date accordingly. Any profit made will be honoured and breaches will be considered valid. We urge all traders to proceed with caution.

HOW WILL TRADING THROUGH QT BENEFIT YOU?
We are now launching aspects of an attractive plan to earn through quant Tekel with various incentives including:
Salary for funded account retention over an agreed period:
For every 12 week period an account is maintained, the trader will receive from that point a 1% salary of account size, monthly until the account is breached.

Share of return through assets under management:
If assets traded create a profit of $500,000.00. The net fee of 20% will be split between the company and the trader at a 80/20 split. In this scenario the trader would receive back $20,000.00. Traditional profit split on account:
90% of profit generated.

Our goal is to utilise our best performing traders performance through a structured investment product and offer that product as a retail investment vehicle. As we apply for regulation in further jurisdictions this product will become more marketable to the retail investor allowing QT to profit from management fees charged to purchasers of this product.

The benefit to QT is allowing traders success to benefit a wider audience and thus creating an extra stream of revenue. The benefit to you as a trader, aside from the aforementioned include lower prices, extra revenue and the ability to build a career rather than just simply trade with a firm.

Our goal is to build a safe environment for the trader whilst growing the business further. We provided a broker, in house tech and are integrating all main label platforms. Our next task is provide further infrastructure for the trader along with separate services for the qt ecosystem.

In order to prepare for the mentioned changing we would like to update you on the following:
•⁠ ⁠⁠We require to see performance through prowess, in order to complete a cycle you must have a minimum of .5% profit on at least two days of a cycle for funded accounts.
•⁠ ⁠⁠We require clarity, a breach of a rule will simply be defined as a breach. Rather than hard or soft.

The structure and framework within the above amendments will allow us to determine whom of you can perform in a manner appropriate for the next steps in our businesses journey and reap the rewards from it."
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
So there is no soft breach anymore and a tiny little error on your side will cause a hard breach or simply a full breach what they say, meaning "clarity" here.
What is not clear is the interpretation of the new 2 days minimum +0.5% profit. Is it end of day based on balance or equity ? Nothing said here. So this can be interpreted and then used in different ways to the advantage of the prop firm. I just hope they will not implement those new rules backwards as nobody could see them, that those rules will be introduced since today on. They sent me on Saturday evening this email from Quant Tekel. From my payout request on Tuesday I heard nothing so far. I contacted support on Thursday and got no response too so far. So those 48 hours standard payout waiting time has already elapsed. Still waiting...
  • #43,830
  • Oct 27, 2024 11:39am Oct 27, 2024 11:39am
Mention tariffs and the german goes beserk. Boy o boy. Other european union nations are laughing at you Andy.
  • #43,831
  • Edited 12:23pm Oct 27, 2024 11:52am | Edited 12:23pm
Quoting Takisd
Mention tariffs and the german goes beserk. Boy o boy. Other european union nations are laughing at you Andy.
I take this as compliment. Maybe I have a second chance as comedian when I cannot make further trading gains ?. Maybe. And Laughing is the best medicine too.
Joke beside, my real fear is a new bear market produced from Trumps politics. In his first term he often manipulated the markets with his actions/news. It did cost me.
And the official opinion of the European Union is the same like the German Finance Minister. The number 1 of EU is a German person too. 'Huge tariffs are a harm to all.'
  • #43,832
  • Oct 27, 2024 12:02pm Oct 27, 2024 12:02pm
Quoting TrAndy1
{quote} my real fear is a new bear market produced from Trumps politics. In his first term he often manipulated the markets with his actions/news. It did cost me.
Inserted Video
Trade with confidence, trade without fear.
  • #43,833
  • Oct 27, 2024 12:42pm Oct 27, 2024 12:42pm
Quoting Takisd
Mention tariffs and the german goes beserk. Boy o boy. Other european union nations are laughing at you Andy.
No sane person wants a trade war. EU would suffer severely from it but so would also USA. EU and US cannot replace Chinese production in short or medium term.
  • #43,834
  • Oct 27, 2024 1:17pm Oct 27, 2024 1:17pm
Quoting TraderTero
{quote} No sane person wants a trade war. EU would suffer severely from it but so would also USA. EU and US cannot replace Chinese production in short or medium term.
thats the point I am making. But Germany, the bully of europe, will take the biggest hit as lower social economic nations already get vital supplies from turkey and don't export much to the US. Its big ticket exports that suffer most, so Germany, france, italy. Some nations may see i as a long time coming retribution to economic bullies.

Personally, I likely won't live long enough to be effected by it so watching Andy squirm are the limits of my interest.
  • #43,835
  • Oct 27, 2024 1:36pm Oct 27, 2024 1:36pm
Quoting TrAndy1
Those experts have the same opinion like me. Why I am quite alone here on this thread with my view ? I just got another confirmation, and IMF is not a nobody. So again my question: Huge tariffs are not a good thing for nobody or ?
You're not alone. Tarrifs are stupid to use as economic policy. Smartly used as a defensive measure to protect against unfair competition or to protect new industries is the best-use case. Using to replace taxes is so stupid it makes my head hurt. I trade currencies so I'll profit either way but OMG I dont see how rational people can even support it as across the board policy. This anti-intellectual age is just not for me.
  • #43,836
  • Edited 2:51pm Oct 27, 2024 1:59pm | Edited 2:51pm
Quoting TrAndy1
The Trustpilot indicator is actually less useful than it was some months ago. Actually too many 5* reviews are forced or bought and too many of bad ones removed. {image} Green seems okay from that custom Trustpilot indicator. Red fields are scam indicating. You need to be very cautious here on buying (new) challenges. Watch this then. MV removed as they also had no reviews. At least broker based prop with more than 20% bad reviews in relation are scammy or scam indicator, that something is going on with denied payouts. Also I find the number of...
Hi Andy,

I am in line with your observation. It looks like that the spamming of Trustpilot has effects on Trustpilot's evaluation mechanism. I guess, since Trustpilot is so massive (effectively any website is getting rated) there is no human evaluation of the comments anymore (understandably) and all is getting done by AI's. Now, AI's are not that smart and an AI can get quickly tricked into a bias - all depends on the data you feed him.
What I mean is, I have the feeling the massive amount of spam comments that sneak through Trustpilot's screening over time train the AI to see the style (of the spam comments) as actually genuine comment and then takes them as reference for evaluating new comments -> actually a positive feedback loop.

I have a life example for it. A few weeks ago, I signed up at a prop firm and while filling out the personal data the autofill function of edge (Microsoft wallet) put an email address in that I do not want to use. And I missed it, pressed enter and payment went out. But I created before already a dashboard profile. Now I had a dashboard profile and a challenge with two different emails. OK, I contacted the support and after a few emails and exchange of details they sorted it out. Honestly, they fixed it pretty professional. (actually, they could have forfeited the amount according to their T&C)

So, as usual they nicely requested me to leave a comment on Trustpilot. Since I was relieved from the worries, I thought... yeah, make a brief but professional statement. So, I wrote on Trustpilot that I had a that problem ayz while purchasing a challenge and the support solved it quite professional. However, I can only give them 4 stars for the time being since I am just in the evaluation and have now to passed and received a payout yet.

Guess what -> Trustpilot put the comment on hold and informed me that after their review they believe my comment is not authentic and they suspect that it is spam. I replied to Trustpilot presented them with a copy of one of the emails I had with that prop firm. No change.
So, I wrote them "Trustpilot, you lost my trust!". No reply either, probably the AI could not decipher it.

Anyhow, since then I look at the Trustpilot ratings with a tick of skepticism.
  • #43,837
  • Oct 27, 2024 2:15pm Oct 27, 2024 2:15pm
Quoting zippo22
{quote} Hi Andy, I am in line with your observation. It looks like that the spamming of Trustpilot has effects on Trustpilot's evaluation mechanism. I guess, since Trustpilot is so massive (effectively any website is getting rated) there is no human evaluation of the comments anymore (understandably) and all is getting done by AI's. Now AI's are not that smart and an AI can get quickly a bias - all depends on the data you feed him. What I mean is, I have the feeling the massive amount of spam comments that sneak through Trustpilot's screening over...
You are right. It is just an indicator. It is indicating the level of scam on what is going on at a prop firm. Sometimes it is more useful than at other times. But it has some value. You can see it, that Apex recently got a shit storm and rapidly had a falling TP indicator with over 13% 1 star review in the last 30 days. Which is warning sign.

Then you have the Apex 3.0 update on new rules and everybody knows it is only built to the favor of Apex. But the missing thing here is, that less incoming fees from new challenge purchasers can let fall down the entire Apex Ponzi empire. That can go relatively quickly too. So I put this indicator with other news together to get a common sense how to interprete it. So at least for me I would avoid Apex and I would also encourage others to look elsewhere first before buying from Apex.

Another example Quant Tekel had also a deeper negative indication with now 15% 1 star reviews in the last 30 days. Within just 2 weeks it went down a lot from single percentage digit to almost scam level. 20% is my limit here where I am highly alerted. They have ongoing payout delays and rule changes and a lot of people who had bigger profits in their funded accounts are still waiting for the migration. So this seems to be tactics that everything from purchases is done first but payouts are the last point to solve in that prop company. I am curious now if they will just apply their new rules to my old payout request and will find a way to deny or even breach my account or I get my payout next week. But I am not alone with my payout delay. What they are saying and what they are doing are two parts. Will report more later.
  • #43,838
  • Oct 27, 2024 2:25pm Oct 27, 2024 2:25pm
Quoting Quickly
If anyone’s interested (though usually they’re not, apart from Tranny and Taki, who almost always misunderstand everything anyway), AxiSelect has understandably had some recent legal issues and regulatory threats to contend with. Their main problems have apparently stemmed from the fact that although Axi brokerage itself does offer some well regulated accounts (FCA, UK), AxiSelect is a different, offshore company which has only a fake regulator, a reality that they haven’t adequately disclosed to customers. In other words - exactly as clarified...
Hey, could you clarify what legal issues you're mentioning? All CFD brokers seem to operate under a similar business model, with a parent company and various subsidiaries. For example, look at IC Markets, ATFX, and BDSwiss—they all follow this structure but offer different services. From my viewpoint, these new CFD brokers in the prop trading industry have built strong global brands and internal processes (maybe not perfect but still in!), especially compared to traditional prop firms that are failing one after another. What are your thoughts on this?
  • #43,839
  • Oct 27, 2024 2:28pm Oct 27, 2024 2:28pm
Quoting TrAndy1
{quote} You are right. It is just an indicator. It is indicating the level of scam on what is going on at a prop firm. Sometimes it is more useful than at other times. But it has some value. You can see it, that Apex recently got a shit storm and rapidly had a falling TP indicator with over 13% 1 star review in the last 30 days. Which is warning sign....
Oh yeah, it shall not say that I am not looking after Trustpilot anymore... That's not the case. Only when I check on Trustpilot I ignore the 5* and instead click the 1* reviews. Then reading through the 1* comment I am weeding out the idiots from the potential solid commentors. If I find too many of the last ones, that's for me a red flag.
  • #43,840
  • Oct 27, 2024 3:07pm Oct 27, 2024 3:07pm
Quoting Mertens
{quote} Hey, could you clarify what legal issues you're mentioning? All CFD brokers seem to operate under a similar business model, with a parent company and various subsidiaries. For example, look at IC Markets, ATFX, and BDSwiss—they all follow this structure but offer different services. From my viewpoint, these new CFD brokers in the prop trading industry have built strong global brands and internal processes (maybe not perfect but still in!), especially compared to traditional prop firms that are failing one after another. What are your thoughts...
He is referring to how if you have a regulated entity (broker) and you offer an unregulated product (prop) in those jurisdictions, it could be construed that the regulated entity is offering those services to people in those jurisdictions (particularly the UK and AUS). The regulator wants clear distance between the two products and are willing to threaten the brokers offering these products if they are offering them to those jurisdictions (as it could be wrongly portrayed as regulated when it is not).

You will see more of the broker backed companies removing jurisdictions like US, UK, AUS, Belgium, Italy, soon based on legal advice as the regulators are actively knocking on doors (not just on broker backed companies but on multiple props as well).

South africa as well likely will start making noise about prop firms due to the "Finflunencer" market and what could be construed as financial advice and a financial product (props) being offered to retail customers.

Quickly is right, even if he chose to use his rectum to deliver the message. The prop environment will change as soon as regulators start the action process after doing the research process.
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