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  • #43,761
  • Oct 27, 2024 7:39am Oct 27, 2024 7:39am
Seems like S&P would be more than 6.5%

https://tradethatswing.com/average-h...0is%207.712%25.


The historical average yearly return of the S&P 500 is 10.473% over the last 20 years, as of the end of July 2024. This assumes dividends are reinvested.
Adjusted for inflation, the 20-year average stock market return (including dividends) is 7.712%.
  • #43,762
  • Edited 8:34am Oct 27, 2024 8:22am | Edited 8:34am
Quoting navk
{quote} By 2025 , s & p 500 crash is predicted.
Only if Trump wins, then it is likely that there will be market turmoils. Why ? Because Trump is dumber than any state police allows. He is too stupid, I show you why.

https://www.cnbc.com/2024/10/26/trum...x-replace.html

 

  1. Donald Trump stood by his idea to end income taxes and substitute them with tariffs in an interview with Joe Rogan.
  2. Tax experts and economic analysts do not think Trump’s tariffs would be an adequate counterweight to balance the trillions lost from eliminating income taxes.
  3. Trump has floated eliminating income taxes on tips, overtime pay and Social Security benefits, paired with an aggressive universal tariff policy on all imports.

Ending taxes on tipped income, overtime and Social Security alone would cost an estimated $2 trillion over 10 years, according to the nonpartisan think tank Tax Foundation. That cost only grows with the addition of Trump’s other tax exemption proposals.


Trump sees his aggressive tariff policy vision as a way to offset those costs.

He has proposed a 20% tariff on all imports from all countries across the board, with an especially high rate for Chinese imports.

But tax experts and economic analysts do not think Trump’s tariffs would be an adequate counterweight to balance the trillions lost from eliminating income taxes.

“It would not be possible to raise tariffs rates high enough to cover anywhere close to that amount [of income tax revenue], as imports would decline as the tariff rates increased,” Garrett Watson, a senior policy analyst at the Tax Foundation, told CNBC earlier this month.

Watson added that Trump’s tariffs would likely generate an estimated $3.8 trillion in revenue over 10 years compared with the $33 trillion that individual income taxes would bring in over the same period.

On balance, Trump’s overall tax plan including tariffs would expand the deficit by $3 trillion over a decade.

“The math doesn’t work out,” Watson said.


--------------------------------------------------------------------------------

I am 100% certain Trump will increase tariffs further when he sees that the incoming from tariffs is not sufficient. That can easily be 50% tariffs on everything or even 100%, just to make his plan come true or better the chances for this. What he forgets is, that there is no winner on such a big trade war. But I guess he has not ever studied an economic book on tariffs at all. And he seems to be immune against any advisors surrounding him too. This is not good. Too much harm for every country.

  • #43,763
  • Oct 27, 2024 8:28am Oct 27, 2024 8:28am
Quoting navk
hey guys, I have few questions on Apex SIM account. 1) Accidentally, if the open trade ( s ) loss goes above 30 % and i did not take loss what happens ? I mean if floating loss goes above 750 when Profit earned is 2.5k 2) And i see that 1 : 5 ratio in any trades. Assume that my open trade loss goes above 500 $ , but all trades turn into my side and i make profit, but less than 100 $. And assume that i could close in profit for just 90 $ What happens in this case ?
its not a hard rule. They are looking to stop the habitual over risking line steppers. Your account will get flagged by their backend for multiple infractions > 1st step you get a warning email to get back in line > next step probation with no ability to cash out until you get back in line > final step account termination.
  • #43,764
  • Oct 27, 2024 8:41am Oct 27, 2024 8:41am
Quoting TrAndy1
{quote} Only if Trump wins, then it is likely that there will be market turmoils. Why ? Because Trump is dumber than any state police allows. He is too stupid, I show you why. https://www.cnbc.com/2024/10/26/trum...x-replace.html Donald Trump stood by his idea to end income taxes and substitute them with tariffs in an interview with Joe Rogan. Tax experts and economic analysts do not think Trump’s tariffs would be an adequate counterweight to balance the trillions lost from eliminating income taxes....
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  • #43,765
  • Oct 27, 2024 8:41am Oct 27, 2024 8:41am
Quoting CableJ
{quote} its not a hard rule. They are looking to stop the habitual over risking line steppers. Your account will get flagged by their backend for multiple infractions > 1st step you get a warning email to get back in line > next step probation with no ability to cash out until you get back in line > final step account termination.
thank you.

Is this soft rule applicable to 1 : 5 winning ratio too ?
Intraday only.
  • #43,766
  • Oct 27, 2024 8:42am Oct 27, 2024 8:42am
Quoting TrAndy1
{quote} Only if Trump wins, then it is likely that there will be market turmoils. Why ? Because Trump is dumber than any state police allows. He is too stupid, I show you why. https://www.cnbc.com/2024/10/26/trum...x-replace.html Donald Trump stood by his idea to end income taxes and substitute them with tariffs in an interview with Joe Rogan. Tax experts and economic analysts do not think Trump’s tariffs would be an adequate counterweight to balance the trillions lost from eliminating income taxes....
So dumb as a doorknob he is.
This is what he is yabering about now: Trump revives his lie that schools are secretly sending children for gender-affirming surgeries

Yah this retard is going to save USA with his trade shenanigans. lol
Time for glue factory.
  • #43,767
  • Oct 27, 2024 9:01am Oct 27, 2024 9:01am
However, anyone with above average intelligence will be voting for Trump.

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  • #43,768
  • Oct 27, 2024 9:03am Oct 27, 2024 9:03am
Quoting OutThere
Seems like S&P would be more than 6.5% https://tradethatswing.com/average-h...0is%207.712%25. The historical average yearly return of the S&P 500 is 10.473% over the last 20 years, as of the end of July 2024. This assumes dividends are reinvested. Adjusted for inflation, the 20-year average stock market return (including dividends) is 7.712%....
You also had to live though some pretty decent sized drawdown periods over the last decade.

2014 -10%
2015 -14%
2016 -14%
2018 -21%
2020 -36%
2022 -27%
2023 -11%
2024 -10%

With an annual max drawdown target of 15-20% a good trader should be able to crush the s&p returns.
  • #43,769
  • Oct 27, 2024 9:04am Oct 27, 2024 9:04am
Quoting navk
{quote} thank you. Is this soft rule applicable to 1 : 5 winning ratio too ?
Yes, both risk management rules
  • #43,770
  • Oct 27, 2024 9:06am Oct 27, 2024 9:06am
You guys started it, I'll finish it.......

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  • #43,771
  • Oct 27, 2024 9:09am Oct 27, 2024 9:09am
and one last one.........


https://x.com/BillAckman/status/1844...7Ctwgr%5Etweet


quite a list of the 33 "accomplishments". Everyone stop being brainwashed by the liberal bought MSM.......think for yourselves, use common sense.....Please, I beg you.
  • #43,772
  • Oct 27, 2024 9:15am Oct 27, 2024 9:15am
Quoting pipmaster77
You guys started it, I'll finish it....... {image}
The list on the left looks like an Xmas wish list for a bunch of kids led by a clown heading to drown in the river.
The list on the right is therefore well justified.

The list on the left is smoke and mirrors. In reality it has only one item: Revange
  • #43,773
  • Oct 27, 2024 9:20am Oct 27, 2024 9:20am
Quoting OutThere
{quote} The list on the left looks like an Xmas wish list for a bunch of kids led by a clown heading to drown in the river. The list on the right is therefore well justified. The list on the left is smoke and mirrors. In reality it has only one item: Revenge
Yeah, why would anyone want what is listed on the left? Another brainwashed victim of TDS....feel so soory for you folks, I really do.
Matter of fact,. I feel even worse for you folks who have a severe case of TDS that don't even live in the US.......it's quite pathetic, actually.
  • #43,774
  • Oct 27, 2024 9:21am Oct 27, 2024 9:21am
Quoting pipmaster77
{quote} Yeah, why would anyone want what is listed on the left? Another brainwashed victim of TDS....feel so soory for you folks, I really do.
He is there only to save his orange ass from prison and your buying it like a simpleton.
  • #43,775
  • Oct 27, 2024 9:23am Oct 27, 2024 9:23am
Quoting OutThere
{quote} The list on the left looks like an Xmas wish list for a bunch of kids led by a clown heading to drown in the river. The list on the right is therefore well justified. The list on the left is smoke and mirrors. In reality it has only one item: Revange
Oh man, do you live in opposite world.....everything the Dems do is revenge on Trump. Holy shit, the lack of seeing what is right in front of you is truly amazing.
  • #43,776
  • Oct 27, 2024 9:32am Oct 27, 2024 9:32am
Quoting pipmaster77
{quote} Oh man, do you live in opposite world.....everything the Dems do is revenge on Trump. Holy shit, the lack of seeing what is right in front of you is truly amazing.
Hopefully soon we will see his sorry ass in an orange jump suit when he can no longer shield himself using politics.
  • #43,777
  • Oct 27, 2024 9:45am Oct 27, 2024 9:45am
Quoting CableJ
{quote} You also had to live though some pretty decent sized drawdown periods over the last decade. 2014 -10% 2015 -14% 2016 -14% 2018 -21% 2020 -36% 2022 -27% 2023 -11% 2024 -10% With an annual max drawdown target of 15-20% a good trader should be able to crush the s&p returns.
Yep, good list. And the worst drawdowns happened in the Trump presidency time in 2018 and 2020. He has a hand for such drawdowns. I do not want to have them again. With his tariffs he can easily produce another bear market on the SP500 market and many US households have large portion of their wealth in equities. Not good.
  • #43,778
  • Oct 27, 2024 9:48am Oct 27, 2024 9:48am
For those that truly don't understand the evil agenda at play......


“There’s an application that’s called the CBP One app where you can go on as an illegal migrant, apply for asylum, or apply for parole, and be granted legal status at the wave of a Kamala Harris open border wand,” Vance said.
Musk elaborated:
They’re transporting large numbers of illegals to swing states. If you look at the numbers, these are the numbers from the government website — the Democrat-administered government website. It’s like, “Where do you get this data?” From the government website that is run by Democrats. And there are triple digit increases in illegals to all the swing states. And in some cases, it’s like 700 percent over the last three years. Now, the swing state margins are sometimes, ten, twenty thousand votes. So what happens if you put hundreds of thousands of people into each swing state?
“When somebody is granted asylum, they are fast-tracked — they get a Green Card, and then five years after the Green Card, they can get citizenship and then they can fully legally vote. And when they do so, they vote overwhelmingly Democrat,” Musk continued.
“Sometimes I get this rebuttal of like, ‘Well, a lot of them, their social values don’t align with the far-left woke ideology.’ That’s true, but that’s not their top priority,” Musk added. “Their top priority is getting their friends and family also to the United States.”

“And the Dems also issue all these programs, these handouts, essentially, that make them beholden to the Democratic Party. So they vote Dem. That’s what happens,” Musk declared.
Musk added that therefore, he predicts, “If there’s another four years of a Democrat administration, they will legalize so many illegals that are there, that the next election, there won’t be any swing states.”

“We’ll be a single-party country, just like California is a single-party state,” Musk said.
As Breitbart News reported, Musk joined Trump at his historic return rally in Butler, Pennsylvania, on Saturday, where he implored supporters of the 45th president to vote, warning, “This will be the last election” if they do not.
  • #43,779
  • Oct 27, 2024 9:56am Oct 27, 2024 9:56am
Quoting pipmaster77
You guys started it, I'll finish it....... {image}
You forget I am German in the EU located, so I have a neutral way on both candidates since I am not affected what is going on in the USA. But what I see is, that too many Trump followers are blind and believe everything what he says, and he lies a lot. That is fact. He needs to win because when not he can loose everything at courts.
  • #43,780
  • Oct 27, 2024 9:58am Oct 27, 2024 9:58am
Quoting TrAndy1
{quote} Only if Trump wins, then it is likely that there will be market turmoils. Why ? Because Trump is dumber than any state police allows. He is too stupid, I show you why. https://www.cnbc.com/2024/10/26/trum...x-replace.html Donald Trump stood by his idea to end income taxes and substitute them with tariffs in an interview with Joe Rogan. Tax experts and economic analysts do not think Trump’s tariffs would be an adequate counterweight to balance the trillions lost from eliminating income taxes....
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