Hey guys and girls,
I thought about this a lot last night, and to be honest, I have never really back tested the breakout method. So, I was thinking of doing some research on this. I mean, up until now, I just did it, never really thought about it.
So what I am thinking is this: Maybe a few of us could scan for the last couple of years for triangles and rectangles in a particular few major pairs. Also, some data would have to be included.
I was thinking that maybe we could note triangles/rectangles in a couple of time frames in a pair. (Perhaps daily, 4hr, 1hr, 30 min, and 15 min.) I would also include weekly, but I am assuming none of us here are willing to risk that much heartburn and terror.
I would collect info like the time of day, the amount of pips gained, whether or not it pulled back to the triangle before taking off, and the success rate. That way, your results could be posted as such: (AND REMEMBER THIS ISN'T DATA COLLECTED, JUST A "DUMMY EXAMPLE")
*** Also maybe a count of how many for and against the overall trend.
NZD/USD:
Time Frame Success Rate: % of time pulled back: Av. Pips
4 hr triangle: 78% 39% 109
1 hr triangle: 68% 54% 78
15 min. tri: 61% 88% 31
4 hr rectangle: 65% 88% 50
and on and on.....also, along with pips, maybe we could track something like the average return in relation to the width of the highest point of triangle and lowest. (i.e. 230%, or whatever)
Anyone interested in this? And if so, I am willing to post my results on a specific pair. (doesn't matter to me, as I am just as happy to make money in Kiwis as I am Francs or Dollars.)
I figure if we can get 5 or 6 pairs tracked, we could be onto something. I know that triangles DO WORK, but I am sure some are more likely than others...Who knows, we may all decide that EUR/CHF is the way to go.
As a side note, please leave info about indicators out of it at first, if we feel a filter is needed, then we can talk about it. But I am more or less just interested in price and profit. MACD or whatever, can do whatever it wants.
I have been trading only using trend lines and the Fibo lately, and have seen some promising results. As I go on in my learnin' and skoolin', I have found that indicators only keep me out of trades, and a lot of the times they are GOOD trades......so like I said, if you want to help that would be great, but please leave out what the MACD or ADX, or even the ABC is doing!
I will be posting my research for all to see soon. I will probably start with something like the EUR/USD, since everyone in the known universe is trading that. ALL pairs are welcome, no matter how ridiculous they are. (So all you Mexican Peso/Ecuador Whatever It's Called, are welcome too. )
I thought about this a lot last night, and to be honest, I have never really back tested the breakout method. So, I was thinking of doing some research on this. I mean, up until now, I just did it, never really thought about it.
So what I am thinking is this: Maybe a few of us could scan for the last couple of years for triangles and rectangles in a particular few major pairs. Also, some data would have to be included.
I was thinking that maybe we could note triangles/rectangles in a couple of time frames in a pair. (Perhaps daily, 4hr, 1hr, 30 min, and 15 min.) I would also include weekly, but I am assuming none of us here are willing to risk that much heartburn and terror.
I would collect info like the time of day, the amount of pips gained, whether or not it pulled back to the triangle before taking off, and the success rate. That way, your results could be posted as such: (AND REMEMBER THIS ISN'T DATA COLLECTED, JUST A "DUMMY EXAMPLE")
*** Also maybe a count of how many for and against the overall trend.
NZD/USD:
Time Frame Success Rate: % of time pulled back: Av. Pips
4 hr triangle: 78% 39% 109
1 hr triangle: 68% 54% 78
15 min. tri: 61% 88% 31
4 hr rectangle: 65% 88% 50
and on and on.....also, along with pips, maybe we could track something like the average return in relation to the width of the highest point of triangle and lowest. (i.e. 230%, or whatever)
Anyone interested in this? And if so, I am willing to post my results on a specific pair. (doesn't matter to me, as I am just as happy to make money in Kiwis as I am Francs or Dollars.)
I figure if we can get 5 or 6 pairs tracked, we could be onto something. I know that triangles DO WORK, but I am sure some are more likely than others...Who knows, we may all decide that EUR/CHF is the way to go.
As a side note, please leave info about indicators out of it at first, if we feel a filter is needed, then we can talk about it. But I am more or less just interested in price and profit. MACD or whatever, can do whatever it wants.
I have been trading only using trend lines and the Fibo lately, and have seen some promising results. As I go on in my learnin' and skoolin', I have found that indicators only keep me out of trades, and a lot of the times they are GOOD trades......so like I said, if you want to help that would be great, but please leave out what the MACD or ADX, or even the ABC is doing!
I will be posting my research for all to see soon. I will probably start with something like the EUR/USD, since everyone in the known universe is trading that. ALL pairs are welcome, no matter how ridiculous they are. (So all you Mexican Peso/Ecuador Whatever It's Called, are welcome too. )