25 or 50? That is the question we want to ask the Fed today | Crypto Craft

  • 25 or 50? That is the question we want to ask the Fed today

    From youtube.com/easymarkets

    The long anticipated meeting is coming up. Don't rush, wait for the number to come out and then keep your eyes and ears on the press conference.
Comment Options
Silver-King
Sep 18, 2024 8:25am
Permalink
If there was one more meeting before the US selections, I'd say it would be 25bps, however since there isn't I expect 50bps rate cut.

Truth is... no one knows. We can play the "I told you so" game later after the announcement.
Reply
ffghost
Sep 18, 2024 11:24am
Permalink
Quoting hotaggie98
I just wanna see "NO CUT", so I can witness shit hit the fan across the globe... Chaos Creates Cash.... Let's go!!!
haha - at least you're sticking to you guns And I agree, that'd be a violent shift. Load up on those 4% down 0 DTE calls!


Who would have thought this thing could realistically get to 50/50 minutes before the announcement? A week ago 85/15. Go figure.



Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: screenshot.png Size: 29 KB
Reply
Blessed-man
Sep 18, 2024 9:53am
Permalink
I think USD will have a comeback

Market normally like to have legroom to move, having being moving against the $ these past few days could mean a reversal

It won't be a surprise if it just a range movement of 50 to 80 pips (big breakout not looking likely)
Reply
ScalaFX
Sep 18, 2024 9:12am
Permalink
0.25, sell and then buy
Reply
Luxyus
Sep 18, 2024 9:01am
Permalink
bah, with all theses data there s no need fo any cut. All focused on that unemployment rate forgetting tha inflation is nt still where it need to be and that can explode again very easily.
Luxyus
Sep 18, 2024 9:20am
Permalink
ye FED will just givin the dog a bone
hotaggie98
Sep 18, 2024 10:25am
Permalink
I just wanna see "NO CUT", so I can witness shit hit the fan across the globe... Chaos Creates Cash.... Let's go!!!
Reply
ScalaFX
Sep 18, 2024 10:51am
Permalink
Quoting Blessed-man
I think USD will have a comeback Market normally like to have legroom to move, having being moving against the $ these past few days could mean a reversal It won't be a surprise if it just a range movement of 50 to 80 pips (big breakout not looking likely)
price will take LQ above last D1 high and then dive again, thats my plan
Reply
ffghost
Sep 18, 2024 8:58am
Permalink
I agree with the unknown. I also stipulate that if I told you the number, you (nor I) could know exactly what the immediate outcome would be. Put a 0 DTE on in your favorite market based on 25. Now on 50. Did it change? Let's see how we do at the close...

One thing is for sure (if you believe the fed funds rate futures contract reflects present marketing 'pricing'): at the time I write this there is a 60/40% split on a 50/25bps cut. That means in a few hours at LEAST 40% of the market is going to be "wrong"....so prep for a hefty adjustment as the news (and subsequent commentary from Power) is digested.

FWIW: a week ago, the market "priced in" an 85% chance of a 25bps cut. Anyone recall another time sentiment changed so fast (and during an uptrend at that)? I do not. It either means: a) the market is 'okay' with a 50bps cut or b) the market will be unhappy with anything OTHER than 50bps......we'll soon see.

Strap in!
Reply
Silver-King
Sep 18, 2024 10:47am
Permalink
Quoting Guest
{quote} I told you its 25bps cut, beacause the drama is that markets expected 50 bps cut and they cut by 25bps, so they can sell the markets.
25bps ha? That would make sense as well. They can also cut by 50bps, then sell the markets due to "fear" of recession because the Fed cut by 50bps and the Powell can polish it out later during press that everything's fine and great.
Reply
ffghost
Sep 18, 2024 11:28am
Permalink
Sentiment across the board seems to be: "equity markets are at all time highs (I disagree with this based on the /nq an /rty, but whatever)....no matter what the fed does, markets have to sell off anyway". I'd love to see this thing just RIP to the upside for a couple of days to really piss off the shorts. It's going to come back to earth in a couple months anyway, why not have some fun to new ATHs in the short term???

Get your popcorn ready; it's going to be a show! (p.s. for the uninitiated, the number will show one pop....but Powell's press conference....and the questions that follow...will include another 1 or 2 massive extensions or reversals...so be ready). If you like to scalp, it is fun to watch the press conference alongside a 5min or 1min chart.
Reply
ffghost
Sep 18, 2024 11:30am — Edited
Permalink
Quoting Vancarbon
{quote} He’s referring to the equity market were retail is a large part of the market . I agree both sides today will be taken out if they day trade. Powells shoe shine boy said only 0.25 , who heard it from Kaplan who emailed Pelosi .
Sorry, VC. I have to challenge you on "large part". I'd say it's at LEAST 80/20 institutional to retail in equities (like the S&P - for ownership). HOWEVER, I will grant you that 20 is a lot higher than 7, so let's split the difference on who's right :-) Of course, on VOLUME, it might be less than 10% retail for sure as institutional algos are trading 10-1000x or MORE the volume of the typical scalper.

**Full disclosure: I would have said higher (like 90/10), but then went to look it up and found closer to 80/20.

And what is this guy doing getting shoe shines? He's making too much money then! That $190k salary for running the central bank of the world's largest economy is WAAYYYYY too high. I mean, look at Musk. That guy doesn't make even CLOSE to what Powell does on a relative "company size" basis. Oh, wait....I was looking at the ratios inverted. Ooops.
Reply
ffghost
Sep 18, 2024 11:38am — Edited
Permalink
For the record: Anyone else seeing this 15 minute /es chart and starting to get a little suspicious? It's a good thing (for my positions) that I have never been able to accurately predict H&S patterns. You bears out there should be salivating at the possibilities of pushing to 5600 very quickly and then look out below down to 5470.

As I said, I'd be dead right now (at least 53 times) if you put a gun to my head and asked me if a pattern will complete a H&S before it was actually confirmed....so let's hope this time is #54!

Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: screenshot.png Size: 41 KB
Reply
ffghost
Sep 18, 2024 12:45pm
Permalink
Quoting Vancarbon
{quote} Dear Ghost I think you’re misinterpreting what I said. The “ day trader “ army is still alive and kicking to quote a Simple Minds song ( what a group - my era - oh the girls I danced with to that music era ) I digress, the institutional players are long term investors , they don’t care what happens in this timeframe, they’re macro boys . That’s not a slur So , yes it’s the retail army who are the liquidity providers for the macro boys .
While I, too, very much appreciate music from the "classic rock" era (Immigrant Song was pushing me through a couple of sets earlier this morning at the gym), I haven't heard much of Simple Minds...might have to give your link a listen.

As for your clarification, I think I understood your point. You were suggesting that the retail (day) trader actually provides for much of the daily liquidity (volume). I agree that institutional players are primarily "investors", but they do have 'trading' arms.

That said, my contention is the volume institutions can push is so much greater than the retail guys that one block of trades from them dwarf what we on this forum, cumulatively, do in a day. If there are 10,000 retail traders all trading 20 contracts of the S&P daily (200,000 contracts), the total daily volume is over 1.5M, which means the "big boys" are trading those extra contracts (and, thus, the vast majority of volume and $$). Now, I am just pulling those retail numbers out of thin air, but I suspect they are SOMEWHAT in line with reality based on what I have learned.

Whatever the case, grabbing some $$ from the retail % is certainly the objective of the institutions (and vice versa). Nowhere will that be better seen than in about 15 minutes when the market goes hog wild. ***Though I contend that, due to the volume and speed at which the move around such binary events, most of this is institutional, algorithmic trading and very little, proportionally, retail-driven price action. (again, I could be wrong).

Good luck today everyone!
Reply
MatTrader101
Sep 18, 2024 9:38am
Permalink
Quoting TrAndy1
Also the Nasdaq did not move upside last couple of days. Very pessimistic that market here is. Not normal.
Because everything has been priced in, the market will only move dramatically if there is new information, big change of plans. It will be choppy for the whole day to hunt stop losses from retailers.
Reply
Momofrmnyc
Sep 18, 2024 8:33am
Permalink
Yeah we are all going to be speculating. I'm sticking with a 25 bps for now. We will find out in a few short hours though.
Trader#4DD0
Sep 18, 2024 11:49am
Permalink
As we have a generational issue with people not even knowing what a recession is or what inflation is or how it all works. They have put a lid on inflation and depending it can crank bank up again pretty quick. Cutting rates here is tricky. I would even suggest due to an election year they should not cut now. And at most it will be a 25 bp cut at most. a 50 bp cut would just lead to them raising again. I know that does not make sense to most but most have not lived through inflationary times.
Reply
Silver-King
Sep 18, 2024 11:56am
Permalink
Watch, so you can open your eyes finally. If your eyes are already opened... I suggest watching it nonetheless.

Inserted Video
Reply
ffghost
Sep 18, 2024 12:54pm
Permalink
How is THIS for fed watch tool prediction (I guess the Sept future just expired)?


Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: screenshot.png Size: 40 KB
Reply
TrAndy1
Sep 18, 2024 9:23am
Permalink
What i see on prices, that markets are pessimistic thinking of only 25 bps cut today. But then after shortly there should be upcoming fantasy about more cuts coming in the next months. So markets at all are way too pessimistic from my perspective.
Reply
TrAndy1
Sep 18, 2024 9:24am
Permalink
It seems like majority is thinking a 50 bps is the right choice but the FED being lame will do only 25 bps cut, they think, that is priced in and not a 50 bps cut is priced in. Huge upside from here, I see.
Reply
TrAndy1
Sep 18, 2024 9:27am
Permalink
You can see this best at the EURUSD prices, markets are deeply pessimistic that a hawkish 25 bps cut is coming only. But that won't be for sure, is my opinion. It will be a normal 50 bps cut or a very dovish 25 bps cut with lots of fantasy of more cuts today. The EURUSD at 1.1120 hardly moved upside since days now. That is not normal. Easily it could be over 1.1200.
Reply
TrAndy1
Sep 18, 2024 9:41am
Permalink
Retailer is not important at all, it less than 7% of total volume. And market does price in only one side of 25 bps cut with no further guidance of more cuts. Way too pessimistic. There will be new info for sure on FED press conference. Watch out.
Reply
Imtiyaz
Sep 18, 2024 11:44am
Permalink
Green back is not possible
Reply
TrAndy1
Sep 18, 2024 9:30am
Permalink
Also the Nasdaq did not move upside last couple of days. Very pessimistic that market here is. Not normal.
Reply
thanhjc
Sep 18, 2024 9:06am
Permalink
No cut anything
Reply
Trader#C9B3
Sep 18, 2024 10:25am
Permalink
Quoting Silver-King
If there was one more meeting before the US selections, I'd say it would be 25bps, however since there isn't I expect 50bps rate cut. Truth is... no one knows. We can play the "I told you so" game later after the announcement.
I told you its 25bps cut, beacause the drama is that markets expected 50 bps cut and they cut by 25bps, so they can sell the markets.
Reply
Trader#76B7
Sep 18, 2024 9:11am
Permalink
Sept 25 bps Nov 50 bps Dec 25 bps
Reply
Trader#9923
Sep 18, 2024 10:48am
Permalink
That is what I said, everyone seems to be on a big short going into FED decision.
Reply
  • Story Stats