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Special Thread: COT Data Analysis & Trading Signals

  • #421
  • Aug 16, 2024 10:49am Aug 16, 2024 10:49am
Quoting MwlRCT
{quote} Symbol: USDCAD TimeFrame: M30 {image}
=
Results
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  • #422
  • Aug 16, 2024 10:50am Aug 16, 2024 10:50am
Quoting MwlRCT
Symbol: NZDUSD TimeFrame: M30 Entry: SELL @cmp {image} = {quote}
=
LOss Trade
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  • #423
  • Aug 18, 2024 7:25pm Aug 18, 2024 7:25pm
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  • #424
  • Aug 19, 2024 1:56am Aug 19, 2024 1:56am
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Inserted Code
audcad: +160.68 (bullish)
audchf: +146.96 (bullish)
audjpy: +87.64 (bullish)
audusd: +190.00 (bullish)
eurcad: +54.99 (bullish)
eurchf: +41.27 (bullish)
eurjpy: +18.05 (bullish)
eurusd: +84.31 (bullish)
gbpcad: +85.22 (bullish)
gbpchf: +71.50 (bullish)
gbpjpy: +12.18 (bullish)
gbpusd: +114.54 (bullish)
nzdcad: +165.07 (bullish)
nzdchf: +151.35 (bullish)
nzdjpy: +92.03 (bullish)
nzdusd: +194.39 (bullish)
=
Inserted Code
audnzd: -4.39 (bearish)
cadchf: -13.72 (bearish)
cadjpy: -73.04 (bearish)
chfjpy: -59.32 (bearish)
euraud: -105.69 (bearish)
eurgbp: -30.23 (bearish)
eurnzd: -110.08 (bearish)
gbpaud: -75.46 (bearish)
gbpnzd: -79.85 (bearish)
usdcad: -29.32 (bearish)
usdchf: -43.04 (bearish)
usdjpy: -102.36 (bearish)
  • #425
  • Aug 19, 2024 6:26am Aug 19, 2024 6:26am
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BULLISH Pairs:
Inserted Code
AUDCAD: +136.06 (BULLISH)
AUDCHF: +192.02 (BULLISH)
AUDJPY: +47.68 (BULLISH)
AUDNZD: +56.07 (BULLISH)
AUDUSD: +198.24 (BULLISH)
GBPAUD: +24.27 (BULLISH)
GBPCHF: +168.75 (BULLISH)
GBPJPY: +23.41 (BULLISH)
GBPNZD: +31.80 (BULLISH)
GBPUSD: +174.97 (BULLISH)
NZDCAD: +79.99 (BULLISH)
NZDCHF: +136.95 (BULLISH)
NZDJPY: +8.39 (BULLISH)
NZDUSD: +142.22 (BULLISH)
EURUSD: +104.45 (BULLISH)
BEARISH Pairs:
Inserted Code
CADCHF: -57.96 (BEARISH)
CADJPY: -88.38 (BEARISH)
CHFJPY: -145.34 (BEARISH)
EURAUD: -93.79 (BEARISH)
EURCAD: -42.27 (BEARISH)
EURCHF: -99.23 (BEARISH)
EURGBP: -69.52 (BEARISH)
EURJPY: -46.11 (BEARISH)
EURNZD: -37.72 (BEARISH)
USDCAD: -62.18 (BEARISH)
USDCHF: -5.22 (BEARISH)
USDJPY: -150.56 (BEARISH)
  • #426
  • Aug 19, 2024 10:39pm Aug 19, 2024 10:39pm
USD Index - (Code-098662)

  1. Report Date: August 13, 2024
  2. Total Open Interest: 45,236 contracts

Non-Commercial Positioning

  1. Net Position: 18,536 contracts (41.0% of Open Interest)
  2. Long Positions: 33,686 contracts (74.5% of Open Interest)
  3. Short Positions: 15,150 contracts (33.5% of Open Interest)
  4. Spreading Positions: 1,218 contracts (2.7% of Open Interest)

Changes from Previous Report (August 6, 2024)

  1. Non-Commercial Net: 761 contracts (4.3%)
  2. Non-Commercial Long: 2,690 contracts (8.7%)
  3. Non-Commercial Short: 1,929 contracts (14.7%)

Open Interest Distribution Changes

  1. Non-Commercial Net: 1.1%
  2. Non-Commercial Long: 1.9%
  3. Non-Commercial Short: 1.2%

Commercial Positioning

  1. Net Position: -17,780 contracts (-39.3% of Open Interest)
  2. Long Positions: 8,138 contracts (18.0% of Open Interest)
  3. Short Positions: 25,258 contracts (55.8% of Open Interest)
  4. Spreading Positions: N/A

Changes from Previous Report (August 6, 2024)

  1. Commercial Net: -1,047 contracts (-5.6%)
  2. Commercial Long: 636 contracts (8.5%)
  3. Commercial Short: 1,683 contracts (7.1%)

Open Interest Distribution Changes

  1. Commercial Net: -1.3%
  2. Commercial Long: 0.4%
  3. Commercial Short: 0.8%

Analysis:
The latest COT report for the USD Index reveals a bullish sentiment among non-commercial traders, as demonstrated by their substantial net long position, representing 41.0% of the total open interest. This suggests that speculators are betting on an increase in the US dollar's value.

Both commercial and non-commercial traders increased their long and short positions since the last report. This activity indicates increased activity and mixed sentiment despite the overall bullish sentiment from non-commercial traders.
Commercial traders, on the other hand, maintain a net short position. This divergence between commercial and non-commercial positioning is noteworthy and could imply that the bullish pressure from speculators might be overextended.

Market Implications:

  1. The continued large net long position held by non-commercial traders suggests a persistent bullish outlook for the US dollar in the near future.
  2. However, the recent increase in both long and short positions from both trader groups might indicate uncertainty in the market despite the overall bullish sentiment.
  3. The substantial net short position of commercial traders, who are typically considered more informed market participants, implies underlying selling pressure for the US dollar, potentially limiting the upside risk.

Disclaimer:
This analysis is based solely on COT report data and should not be considered investment advice.

  • #427
  • Aug 20, 2024 12:08am Aug 20, 2024 12:08am
Symbol: USDCAD
TimeFrame: M30
Entry: SELL@cmp
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  • #428
  • Aug 20, 2024 1:11am Aug 20, 2024 1:11am
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Forex Currency Strength Analysis: London Session
Data Source: MwlRCT Currency Strength Snapshot (6-hour validity)

Key Takeaways:

  1. Strongest: NZD, AUD
  2. Weakest: JPY, USD
  3. Top Bullish Potential: AUDJPY, NZDJPY, AUDUSD, NZDUSD
  4. Top Bearish Potential: EURAUD, EURNZD

Trading Opportunities:
Long positions may be considered for

Inserted Code
AUDCAD: +125.67 (BULLISH)
AUDCHF: +151.36 (BULLISH)
AUDJPY: +234.32 (BULLISH)
AUDUSD: +184.96 (BULLISH)
CADCHF: +25.69 (BULLISH)
CADJPY: +108.65 (BULLISH)
CHFJPY: +82.96 (BULLISH)
EURCHF: +16.97 (BULLISH)
EURJPY: +99.93 (BULLISH)
EURUSD: +50.57 (BULLISH)
GBPCAD: +52.93 (BULLISH)
GBPCHF: +78.62 (BULLISH)
GBPJPY: +161.58 (BULLISH)
GBPUSD: +112.22 (BULLISH)
NZDCAD: +128.08 (BULLISH)
NZDCHF: +153.77 (BULLISH)
NZDJPY: +236.73 (BULLISH)
NZDUSD: +187.37 (BULLISH)
USDJPY: +49.36 (BULLISH)
Short positions could be explored for
Inserted Code
AUDNZD: -2.41 (BEARISH)
EURAUD: -134.39 (BEARISH)
EURCAD: -8.72 (BEARISH)
EURGBP: -61.65 (BEARISH)
EURNZD: -136.80 (BEARISH)
GBPAUD: -72.74 (BEARISH)
GBPNZD: -75.15 (BEARISH)
USDCAD: -59.29 (BEARISH)
USDCHF: -33.60 (BEARISH)
Disclaimer:
This analysis is time-sensitive and should not be interpreted as financial advice. Conduct thorough research, manage risk effectively, and seek professional guidance before making any trading decisions.
  • #429
  • Aug 20, 2024 1:26am Aug 20, 2024 1:26am
Running Trades:
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  • #430
  • Aug 20, 2024 2:40am Aug 20, 2024 2:40am
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Inserted Code
EURNZD: -136.80 (BEARISH)
USDCHF: -33.60 (BEARISH)
GBPNZD: -75.15 (BEARISH)
  • #431
  • Aug 20, 2024 6:23am Aug 20, 2024 6:23am
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BULLISH Pairs:
Inserted Code
AUDCAD: +151.49
AUDCHF: +166.59
AUDJPY: +269.31
AUDUSD: +212.00
CADCHF: +15.10
CADJPY: +117.82
CHFJPY: +102.72
EURCAD: +3.40
EURCHF: +18.50
EURJPY: +121.22
EURUSD: +63.91
GBPCAD: +74.48
GBPCHF: +89.58
GBPJPY: +192.30
GBPUSD: +134.99
NZDCAD: +158.50
NZDCHF: +173.60
NZDJPY: +276.32
NZDUSD: +219.01
USDJPY: +57.31
BEARISH Pairs:
Inserted Code
AUDNZD: -7.01
EURAUD: -148.09
EURGBP: -71.08
EURNZD: -155.10
GBPAUD: -77.01
GBPNZD: -84.02
USDCAD: -60.51
USDCHF: -45.41
Key Observations and Trading Implications

1. The strongest currencies are NZD and AUD, while the weakest are USD and JPY. This creates significant bullish potential for pairs like NZDUSD, AUDUSD, NZDJPY, and AUDJPY.

2. NZDJPY (+276.32) and AUDJPY (+269.31) show the largest positive strength differentials, indicating strong bullish potential. Traders might consider long positions in these pairs, keeping in mind appropriate risk management strategies.

3. EURNZD (-155.10) and EURAUD (-148.09) show the largest negative strength differentials, suggesting significant bearish potential. Short positions could be considered for these pairs.

4. Despite GBP's overall positive strength, it shows bearish potential against the stronger AUD and NZD. GBPAUD (-77.01) and GBPNZD (-84.02) could be considered for short positions.

5. USD shows weakness against most currencies except JPY. USDJPY (+57.31) is the only bullish USD pair in this snapshot, while pairs like USDCAD and USDCHF are bearish.
  • #432
  • Aug 20, 2024 6:43am Aug 20, 2024 6:43am
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  • #433
  • Aug 20, 2024 6:58am Aug 20, 2024 6:58am
Quote
4. Despite GBP's overall positive strength, it shows bearish potential against the stronger AUD and NZD. GBPAUD (-77.01) and GBPNZD (-84.02) could be considered for short positions.
Symbol: GBPAUD
TimeFrame: M30
Entry: SELL @cmp
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  • #434
  • Aug 20, 2024 7:32am Aug 20, 2024 7:32am
Quoting MwlRCT
{image}
Inserted Code
https://www.forexfactory.com/calendar/80-ca-cpi-mm
  • #435
  • Aug 20, 2024 9:00am Aug 20, 2024 9:00am
Key Observations and Trading Implications (Updated)

1. NZD and AUD remain the strongest currencies, with most pairs involving these as base currencies showing bullish signals.

2. JPY is still the weakest currency, with all JPY pairs showing bullish signals for the base currency. AUDJPY (+238.88) and NZDJPY (+249.36) continue to show the largest strength differences.

3. USD shows mixed signals: bullish against JPY but bearish against stronger currencies like AUD, NZD, GBP, and EUR.

4. EUR is relatively weak against AUD, NZD, and GBP, but shows strength against USD, CAD, CHF, and JPY.

Inserted Code
jpy(-113.10)
aud(+125.78)
chf(-37.22)
gbp(+54.49)
usd(-82.60)
nzd(+136.26)
cad(-34.32)
eur(-13.62)
  • #436
  • Aug 20, 2024 11:55am Aug 20, 2024 11:55am
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  • #437
  • Aug 21, 2024 12:22am Aug 21, 2024 12:22am
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Inserted Code
[b]Bullish (Base currency is stronger):[/b][list][*]    EURAUD: +16.18[*]    EURCAD: +167.48[*]    EURCHF: +31.95[*]    EURGBP: +32.82[*]    EURJPY: +50.21[*]    EURNZD: +8.08[*]    GBPCAD: +136.64[*]    GBPCHF: +1.13[*]    GBPJPY: +17.39[*]    NZDCAD: +159.40[*]    NZDCHF: +23.87[*]    NZDJPY: +42.13[*]    NZDUSD: +5.35[*]    USDCAD: +154.05[*]    USDCHF: +18.52[*]    USDJPY: +36.78[/list]
Inserted Code
[b]Bearish (Base currency is weaker):[/b][list][*]    AUDCAD: -151.30[*]    AUDCHF: -6.27[*]    AUDJPY: -60.34[*]    AUDNZD: -7.10[*]    AUDUSD: -3.75[*]    CADCHF: -135.13[*]    CADJPY: -117.27[*]    CHFJPY: -18.26[*]    GBPAUD: -16.64[*]    GBPNZD: -24.74[/list]
Remember:

  1. This categorization is based on a single point in time. Currency strengths fluctuate constantly.
  2. Consider this data as one piece of the puzzle when making trading decisions.
  3. Always incorporate risk management and seek advice from a qualified financial advisor.

  • #438
  • Aug 21, 2024 3:09am Aug 21, 2024 3:09am
Quoting MwlRCT
{image} Bullish (Base currency is stronger): EURAUD: +16.18 EURCAD: +167.48 EURCHF: +31.95 EURGBP: +32.82 EURJPY: +50.21 EURNZD: +8.08 GBPCAD: +136.64 GBPCHF: +1.13 GBPJPY: +17.39 NZDCAD: +159.40 NZDCHF: +23.87 NZDJPY: +42.13 NZDUSD: +5.35 USDCAD: +154.05 USDCHF: +18.52 USDJPY: +36.78 Bearish (Base currency is weaker): AUDCAD: -151.30 AUDCHF: -6.27 AUDJPY: -60.34 AUDNZD: -7.10 AUDUSD: -3.75 CADCHF: -135.13 CADJPY: -117.27 CHFJPY: -18.26 GBPAUD: -16.64 GBPNZD: -24.74 Remember: This categorization is based on a single point in time. Currency strengths...
from where you are getting these data? isn't cot data released weekly
  • #439
  • Aug 21, 2024 4:08am Aug 21, 2024 4:08am
Quoting marcostyler
{quote} from where you are getting these data? isn't cot data released weekly
COT = Weekly
Currency Strength = Any Time during the day, I can check status as per now here below is the status (London Session , see attached image)
=
Where i get data: I generate strength value as per PA based on W1, D1 and H4 candles.
=
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BULLISH Pairs:
Inserted Code
AUDCAD: +125.56 (BULLISH)
AUDCHF: +53.115 (BULLISH)
AUDJPY: +84.47 (BULLISH)
AUDNZD: +12.325 (BULLISH)
AUDUSD: +48.885 (BULLISH)
CADCHF: +72.445 (BULLISH)
CADJPY: +41.09 (BULLISH)
CHFJPY: +31.355 (BULLISH)
GBPCAD: +59.24 (BULLISH)
GBPJPY: +18.15 (BULLISH)
NZDCAD: +113.235 (BULLISH)
NZDCHF: +40.79 (BULLISH)
NZDJPY: +72.145 (BULLISH)
NZDUSD: +36.56 (BULLISH)
USDCAD: +76.675 (BULLISH)
USDCHF: +4.23 (BULLISH)
USDJPY: +35.585 (BULLISH)
BEARISH Pairs:
Inserted Code
EURAUD: -83.16 (BEARISH)
EURCAD: -42.4 (BEARISH)
EURCHF: -30.045 (BEARISH)
EURGBP: -16.84 (BEARISH)
EURJPY: +1.31 (BEARISH)
EURNZD: -70.835 (BEARISH)
EURUSD: -34.275 (BEARISH)
GBPAUD: -66.32 (BEARISH)
GBPCHF: -13.205 (BEARISH)
GBPNZD: -53.995 (BEARISH)
GBPUSD: -17.435 (BEARISH)
  • #440
  • Aug 21, 2024 6:07am Aug 21, 2024 6:07am
Inserted Code
EURNZD: -70.835 (BEARISH)
Symbol: EURNZD
TimeFrame: M30
Entry: SELL@cmp
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