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Flying Dutchman

  • #10,401
  • May 30, 2024 10:26am May 30, 2024 10:26am
Quoting birdland
{quote} I can only laugh at these lies of the br... i know from a friend who works for a broker that these figures are fudged. the majority of clients have destroyed their accounts after 6-12 months. they make a good living from the 2-3% of constant traders AND from the constant growth of new clients, who again destroy their accounts.
On that graphic however it does show one broker, Blackwell Global with an unusualy higher number of profitable traders, almost 55%

Even with 20% of profitable clients they can earn a good living on commissions, clients blowing their accounts cannot be good for the long term
sustainability of their business.

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It never gets easier, you just get better
  • #10,402
  • May 30, 2024 4:18pm May 30, 2024 4:18pm
Quoting TimeTells
{quote} The fake'n'flips the Market can throw out each day are what seem to throw off many traders AND of course their indicators (which ARE still quite useful imho) while the F'N'F occurance can then discombobulate BOTH the trader and their indis until the market recalibrates again back to prior behaviour.

LAST DAY OF THE TRADING MONTH OF MAY IS TODAY

GJ, spot the discombobulation occurances
All else can be pretty logical to trade imho
Patience & timing, then it looks like station to station to a final target destination to me. Choose your own exit point.

There are many ways to trade our markets and not one way is necessarily the best way.

Find our OWN way and the journey can be enjoyable for what it is.
Market trading is really US vs US, imo, not US vs the Market.

Trade safe, trade well all.

.
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  • #10,403
  • May 31, 2024 5:02am May 31, 2024 5:02am
Quoting driven18
{quote} Yes, MM is Money Management. O Yes, MM is large part of the journey, follow the leader, I say, but cover your a*s. I break trading into 3 parts of importance: 10% - Entry 30% - Money Management 60% MindF**k and Discipline.
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It never gets easier, you just get better
  • #10,404
  • May 31, 2024 4:19pm May 31, 2024 4:19pm
and that ends the month of May

back again sometime in June, 'cept for the music of course

Trade safe & trade well all


GJ
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  • #10,405
  • May 31, 2024 4:25pm May 31, 2024 4:25pm
Quoting Shabs19
{quote} {image}
Facts!
If 95% Of Traders Fail, Then Why Are You Doing The Same Thing They Are.
  • #10,406
  • Jun 14, 2024 4:30pm Jun 14, 2024 4:30pm
It's been a fortnight, so why not another chart

Dutchy still sailing in circles avoiding the Bermuda as best it can

But has anything changed with our markets' behaviours
Not really, imho.
Station to station, principle stays the same.

Winter has descended upon Brizzie here, meaning chilly nights & mornings (the days have been glorious though )

Trade 'em safe and trade 'em well folks ... and all the best to all

.
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  • #10,407
  • Edited 7:22am Jun 15, 2024 5:51am | Edited 7:22am
Quoting TimeTells
It's been a fortnight, so why not another chart Dutchy still sailing in circles avoiding the Bermuda as best it can But has anything changed with our markets' behaviours Not really, imho. Station to station, principle stays the same. Winter has descended upon Brizzie here, meaning chilly nights & mornings (the days have been glorious though ) Trade 'em safe and trade 'em well folks ... and all the best to all . {image}
Jpy News driven events on Friday, with Policy Rate (4:25 GMT) pushing GJ Up then BOJ Conference (7:30 GMT) pushing it back down.

https://www.reuters.com/markets/rate...ce-2024-06-14/

Franky & London traders getting caught Price making New highs, breaking PWH, PMH & PDH

Decision time, is it a pullback or a dump ?




In the UK, we are still waiting for Summer, already mid june

https://www.independent.co.uk/weathe...-b2562812.html
It never gets easier, you just get better
  • #10,408
  • Jun 15, 2024 7:27am Jun 15, 2024 7:27am
Quoting Shabs19
{quote} Jpy News driven events on Friday, with Policy Rate (4:25 GMT) pushing GJ Up then BOJ Conference (7:30 GMT) pushing it back down. https://www.reuters.com/markets/rate...ce-2024-06-14/ Franky & London traders getting caught Price making New highs, breaking PWH, PMH & PDH Decision time, is it a pullback or a dump ? In the UK, we are still waiting for Summer, already mid june https://www.independent.co.uk/weathe...-b2562812.html...
Just looking out my window and watching the rain pour down.
every Saint has a past. Every Sinner has a Future
  • #10,409
  • Edited 8:04am Jun 15, 2024 7:53am | Edited 8:04am
Quoting turnip15
{quote} Just looking out my window and watching the rain pour down.
We just had Heavy Thunder as well, window rattler.

Must be Wimbledon coming round the corner......

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WIMBLEDON, England (AP) — Wimbledon's total prize money fund will rise to a record 50 million pounds (about $64 million), with the singles champions each earning 2.7 million pounds ($3.45 million), All England Club officials announced Thursday at the annual spring briefing.
It never gets easier, you just get better
  • #10,410
  • Jun 15, 2024 5:56pm Jun 15, 2024 5:56pm
Quoting turnip15
{quote} Just looking out my window and watching the rain pour down.
Quoting Shabs19
{quote} We just had Heavy Thunder as well, window rattler. Must be Wimbledon coming round the corner...... {image} WIMBLEDON, England (AP) — Wimbledon's total prize money fund will rise to a record 50 million pounds (about $64 million), with the singles champions each earning 2.7 million pounds ($3.45 million), All England Club officials announced Thursday at the annual spring briefing.


And here's me thinking you guys up there were cooking like frogs in a pot

https://news.un.org/en/story/2023/07/1139162
Hottest July ever signals ‘era of global boiling has arrived’ says UN chief


Anyways, back to trading, itself a shifty reality imo
  • #10,411
  • Jun 15, 2024 6:03pm Jun 15, 2024 6:03pm
Quoting Shabs19
{quote} Jpy News driven events on Friday, with Policy Rate (4:25 GMT) pushing GJ Up then BOJ Conference (7:30 GMT) pushing it back down. https://www.reuters.com/markets/rate...ce-2024-06-14/ Franky & London traders getting caught Price making New highs, breaking PWH, PMH & PDH Decision time, is it a pullback or a dump ?

Hi Shabs
Excellent assessment of the resultant action imo

--------

george would often post that the “news is used to abuse”

Now, from the chart I posted above it could be noticed a few things both before AND after the News Triggers.
My charts, as I often mention, are not trade entry charts.
I give no systematic method, or imply one.
Just observations.
There are 10,000 threads on FF if folks wish to copy or devise their own trade entry systems

I remain through choice a discretionary trader ie no SET rules ... such as "If A occurs then do B etc etc"
I just observe the market in its moments when I think liquidity has or will arrive showing as increased price movement from triggers
(and mainly looking for that to be coinciding with PRICE & TIME).

Back to the chart, so with the "after" post-assessment I will notice on Friday the ADR was twice the indicator number.
The maroon line is the Day Open and (miraculously lol) the ADR # was the move above the D.O.
Then price reversed back and through the D.O. to register the (same) ADR # but this time BELOW the D.O. (to a double ADR day)
Just coincidence . Or a well organised market (and forget by whom).

That’s the after observation I see in the next morning. And it just confirms (to me) the nature of that “organised” word narrative.
Without an observed “organisation” the markets would likely be seen by me as random (and then non-tradeable, for me).

That’s the after. What about the before or during.
That’s where lines on a chart come in (for me). I call them trader attractors. Other traders come (first) and then the larger market response follows.
ie liquidity. And then it is market movement for us (hopefully).

So (all horizontal) lines are JUST PRICE
And News (and such things like SESSION opens & impending closes etc) are TIME.
Price & Time.

How to trade that ?
Well that’s our personal trading adventure that each trader has to learn for themselves (as we all had to) whether by our own observations or what others
(eg the 10,000 FF threads) have pointed us to as a trading plan direction. After that it is likely just all money management. And a whole new can of worms.

The multi lines on my charts might seem extensive or superfluous, while those charts are merely a complete lookback (usually) of the day prior. I can then start breaking the chart down into its sessions. And Opens & Closes & Hi’s & Lows etc. Then News etc etc. And also any intermittent price bursts. When Live Trading I might utilise some of those Price & Time components by waiting as the next market response action occurs.

Structure Trading is a perfect example of how I could utilise all those non set-in-stone factorings above that occur during the day for a discretionary (ie non system) trader like myself.

Though it’s a minefield out there folks lol, trade it safe, and trade it well.
  • #10,412
  • Jun 18, 2024 12:15am Jun 18, 2024 12:15am
Same old, same old imho
If the charts ever change, I would have to also (change my own trading ways I mean)


I rarely post them any more but how might an actual trade look inside my other multi coloured line charts (different brokers for setup chart & trade chart).

And I ask myself why would the charts/markets change,
To me it’s just a business model they run (and at a level way above my pay grade)
And which such model plays out over and over, day after day.

But do I always get my trades in at the perfect sweet spot.
NO I don’t

Do I always maximise what pips are available for me inside the session(s) I trade.
NO I don’t

Such is my own life as a discretionary trader

Does it bother me though that I might miss out on more (ie fomo/greed/frustration/dissapointment etc etc).
NO

I set an account plan and intraday profit target each morning at +15p (ie 15 pips NET).
Sometimes I get more, sometimes less, sometimes nothing at all, and,
nothing is set in stone regarding my trading.

This morning however was over fairly early for +17p
More was there, yes, after I closed, while I utilise a “lock” trade TP close concept so often do not achieve more. What the market does after I close a trade I care little for, and often don’t look until later.

[lock trade = lock in the profit, as prior earlier times in my trading the market has reversed & run back against me - and I have no need now to test these market vagaries anymore - once the day target is achieved]

I’ll look in later of course for the Franky/London fun’ngames to see what the market might throw up then.
Maybe I trade again, maybe not. Only time will tell ().

.
Attached Image(s) (click to enlarge)
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  • #10,413
  • Jun 18, 2024 2:04am Jun 18, 2024 2:04am
What I can't understand is that GBPJPY isn't an entity on its own; it's a cross rate made up entirely by USDJPY and GBPUSD...
So the core of whatever you found, must lie in those pairs...
  • #10,414
  • Jun 18, 2024 2:28am Jun 18, 2024 2:28am
Quoting Onra
What I can't understand is that GBPJPY isn't an entity on its own; it's a cross rate made up entirely by USDJPY and GBPUSD...
So the core of whatever you found, must lie in those pairs...

Hi Onra,

No need to use the "quote" function, I do look in occasionally when folks post to Andy's Dutchy here
(I assume you were addressing me , who knows )

If so, then,
The answer (for me) is that the individual market charts are highly organised

Quoting TimeTells
{quote}Just coincidence . Or a well organised market (and forget by whom).

And that saves me having to continually look at three charts during sessions (GBPUSD, USDJPY & gbpjpy).
  • #10,415
  • Jun 18, 2024 2:38am Jun 18, 2024 2:38am
Cheers Onra,
I will go one further.
The GJ follows the basic core movement of its majors yes.

Which.
Helps explain the infamous GJ Grinder Days
That would occur,
When the Pound AND the Dollar are BOTH "rising OR dropping" in the same time/direction, giving the GJ cross a double push in one direction only (up or down).
(edit I mean both GBPUSD and USDJPY both moving up and/or down together in the "same" direction and time/session)
  • #10,416
  • Edited 6:25am Jun 18, 2024 3:33am | Edited 6:25am
Quoting Onra
What I can't understand is that GBPJPY isn't an entity on its own; it's a cross rate made up entirely by USDJPY and GBPUSD... So the core of whatever you found, must lie in those pairs...
See the Bretton Woods Agreement 1944, although it ended in the 1970's, as to why all Currencies are still tied to the value of USD

So all non USD cross pairs are calculated from it's Majors value to USD.

GBPUSD X USDJPY = GBPJPY

Ofc between different brokers there will be micro pips difference where arbitrge traders make their money.
It never gets easier, you just get better
  • #10,417
  • Jun 24, 2024 12:19am Jun 24, 2024 12:19am
Quoting TimeTells
Chúc mừng Onra, tôi sẽ tiến xa hơn nữa. GJ tuân theo phong trào cốt lõi cơ bản của các chuyên ngành của nó. Cái mà. Giúp giải thích Những ngày máy xay GJ khét tiếng sẽ xảy ra, Khi Bảng Anh VÀ Đồng đô la CẢ HAI "tăng HOẶC giảm" theo cùng một thời gian/hướng, khiến đường chéo GJ bị đẩy kép chỉ theo một hướng (lên hoặc xuống)....
Hi Timetells,
What do you mean: detect grinding days to avoid counter-trend trades?
I have a question :
1. Do you use hedging?
2. Do you increase your position size when the price moves against you?
3. Do you use compound interest?
Thanks a lot!
  • #10,418
  • Jun 24, 2024 2:08am Jun 24, 2024 2:08am
Quoting JesseNguyen
{quote} Hi Timetells,
What do you mean: detect grinding days to avoid counter-trend trades?
I have a question :
1. Do you use hedging?
2. Do you increase your position size when the price moves against you?
3. Do you use compound interest?
Thanks a lot!

Hi Jesse

Chào mừng
(Welcome)

I am sorry but there may be miscommunication. I do not recall saying what you posted.

“detect grinding days to avoid counter-trend trades?”

I was meaning in your quoted posted how a “grinder” day on GJ could occur when both its majors were at the same time & session both going up or down together.

Counter-trend trades are usually not in my conversations as I prefer to trade with the market direction/momentum during the session I trade. The majors are of interest to me but do not determine how/when I trade GJ, sorry.

1. I have used hedging at times in my trading, yes. Not currently though.
2. I do not increase my individual trade sizes, no. But if add to my current trades then the (total) position size would increase, yes.
3. I do not use compounding at this point as I am now comfortable with my a/c size and lot size and pip size target each day (trade outcome is unknown of course until my trading day ends, which is usually after the London Open - plus 2 hours - and well before the New York Session begins).


My advice to all new traders and those wishing to test out new or old templates and trade systems/methods/ideas is to do this on a Trade Simulator rather then live trading (or demo trading). These can then be done on weekends as well when the markets are closed.

My reason for saying this is that it is quicker on a Simulator to work through a whole week of trading for example than it is to be waiting and watching the price moves live each session each day.

Secondly, a Trade Simulator is used on your own selected past history dates, of your choice I mean, so if we cannot trade to success on something that has already happened then what chance of a better outcome doing this on the current market moves, which are unknown as they unfold.

https://www.forexfactory.com/thread/...7#post14676017


I feel I have not answered your question, sorry, which shows me you may have something particular to ask about trading.

My own experience is only that when I could see the daily/session market mechanics then the method or system I/you would eventually use is almost irrelevant (as they ALL must operate within those mechanics)

All methods/systems would then likely work when you/we understand what the market HAS TO DO EACH DAY, as it works itself to (and from) its high and lows. And only you alone can choose to either ride the wave all the way, a part of the way, or maybe scalp in between on the sessions & times that suit you best.

There is no ONE way to do this trading that we do. Or one that is best.


Hãy giao dịch an toàn, và sau đó giao dịch tốt
(Let’s trade safely, and then trade well)
  • #10,419
  • Jun 24, 2024 9:50am Jun 24, 2024 9:50am
Quoting TimeTells
Cheers Onra, I will go one further. The GJ follows the basic core movement of its majors yes. Which. Helps explain the infamous GJ Grinder Days That would occur, When the Pound AND the Dollar are BOTH "rising OR dropping" in the same time/direction, giving the GJ cross a double push in one direction only (up or down). (edit I mean both GBPUSD and USDJPY both moving up and/or down together in the "same" direction and time/session)
I think this graphic might help to explain :

Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: 2024-06-24_15h48_28.png Size: 156 KB
It never gets easier, you just get better
  • #10,420
  • Jun 25, 2024 1:59am Jun 25, 2024 1:59am
Quoting TimeTells
All methods/systems would then likely work when you/we understand what the market HAS TO DO EACH DAY, as it works itself to (and from) its high and lows.
Each day as in EVERY day?
EU yesterday for example, was a big trend day from the start.
To me, that seems more like a setup / manipulation over a couple of days.
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