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  • #3,441
  • May 23, 2024 7:08am May 23, 2024 7:08am
Although I rarely trade butterfly spread anymore due to high trading cost (butterfly is 4 legs spread, which means trading cost is 4 times bigger than outright trading), this Oct-Nov-Dec butterfly looks good as well. Current margin for sell is $578.
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Simplicity is the ultimate sophistication - Leonardo da Vinci
  • #3,442
  • May 24, 2024 1:29am May 24, 2024 1:29am
Quoting heispark
Sold Jun-July spread @ -0.215. Storage is still massive and it would take some time before they consume all the excessive glut. Even if I can lose some money in this trading, I feel more comfortable when my position agrees seasonality direction. As its expiration is approaching, I have to close this position no later than late next week. {image}
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Simplicity is the ultimate sophistication - Leonardo da Vinci
  • #3,443
  • May 29, 2024 5:22am May 29, 2024 5:22am
July-Aug-Sep butterfly.
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Simplicity is the ultimate sophistication - Leonardo da Vinci
  • #3,444
  • Edited 6:01am May 29, 2024 5:45am | Edited 6:01am
Quoting heispark
I am a long time huge fan of 200 EMA and 50 EMA. Recently I made a simple 200 EMA based strategy based on multiple lower time frames. It seems 200 EMA works better than 50 EMA at lower time frames. Stable trend usually starts from 200 EMA. Although opportunities don't comes very often, it works nicely and stably on day trading. And it's pretty easy. Let me talk about it later once I find some free time.....
This is my day trading setup although I am not seriously invloved with day trading at the moment. By the way, I don't share the details of my setup. It is just for quick reference only.
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Relatively easier and safer setup often starts from 50 or 200 EMA confluences of multiple timeframes. I don't use conventional 1, 5, 15, 30, 60M, ... combinations by the way. They have too big gaps inbetween.

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Perhaps, the above setup was the only good trading oppotunity for me today. The others coming later would be too risky and noisy. Yes, I know, I know, everything looks perfect in hindsight.

Even if you have a wining strategy, day trading is time and energy consuming and you have to sit in front of the screen for many hours. I don't like it.
Simplicity is the ultimate sophistication - Leonardo da Vinci
  • #3,445
  • May 30, 2024 4:54am May 30, 2024 4:54am
Sold July-August spread of next year. It will take long time before harvest.
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By the way, when you hold far away calendar spreads, you should work with a professional broker who knows how to handle spread properly. This is important. Otherwise occasional bad tick can liquidate or mess up your positions. It happened multiple times for me with AMP Futures. Most discounted cheap brokers won't handle spreads properly including Interactive Brokers and TD Ameritrade.
Simplicity is the ultimate sophistication - Leonardo da Vinci
  • #3,446
  • May 30, 2024 5:05am May 30, 2024 5:05am
Oct-Nov spread also looks attractive. I will wait until it comes down a bit. You may enter now if you don't mind some DD.

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Simplicity is the ultimate sophistication - Leonardo da Vinci
  • #3,447
  • May 30, 2024 7:06am May 30, 2024 7:06am
Today's sudden move was difficult to catch for average traders. I will have a good sell oppotunity sooner or later, maybe tomorrow....
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I need a cleanly aligned setup in each timeframes. Like a wave under wave.....
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Simplicity is the ultimate sophistication - Leonardo da Vinci
  • #3,448
  • May 31, 2024 6:03am May 31, 2024 6:03am
When 50 EMA and 200 EMA are far away from each other, I don't find high provability opportunities. Usually choppy and erratic moves. Of course, big traders can do whatever they want but we retail traders cannot know their intention and therefore become very easy prey to be hunted. Time to wait.........
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Of course, my indicators are also mess up.
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Simplicity is the ultimate sophistication - Leonardo da Vinci
  • #3,449
  • May 31, 2024 10:09am May 31, 2024 10:09am
Bought July-Aug-Sep butterfly spread @ -0.095. This trade must be completed within 20 to 25 days.

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Simplicity is the ultimate sophistication - Leonardo da Vinci
  • #3,450
  • Jun 1, 2024 6:30am Jun 1, 2024 6:30am
At least as far as Nat Gas trading is concerned, daily 50 and 200 EMA are very very important.

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https://www.fxempire.com/forecasts/a...ll-off-1434775
Simplicity is the ultimate sophistication - Leonardo da Vinci
  • #3,451
  • Jun 4, 2024 2:18am Jun 4, 2024 2:18am
I love James' daily analysis. He's a real professional.

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https://www.fxempire.com/forecasts/a...eather-1435249
Simplicity is the ultimate sophistication - Leonardo da Vinci
  • #3,452
  • Edited 6:22am Jun 4, 2024 6:01am | Edited 6:22am
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The first one was valid and I could catch the signal according to my strategy. The second one is not valid and my strategy doesn't give a call - and I doubt others can do that in a consistent basis. My entry was late and I was ready to add up upon pull-back. Also look at how daily pivot levels work. Just like major MAs, they work like a magnet. Hindsight chart anyway, sorry for that. I will post live calls later once I am ready. No red day in PNL for weeks.

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  • #3,453
  • Jun 4, 2024 6:10am Jun 4, 2024 6:10am
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Exiting quick move but this is not tradable. Trend is still up. To be involed to sell, major MAs should be penertrated and lower low should be printed.
Simplicity is the ultimate sophistication - Leonardo da Vinci
  • #3,454
  • Jun 4, 2024 6:30am Jun 4, 2024 6:30am
Also always beware of big pending orders. They are not there just for fun.....
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  • #3,455
  • Jun 4, 2024 7:34am Jun 4, 2024 7:34am
The main problem of day trading is you have to sit and watch screen constantly for 5-7 hours. For examle for day, the safe and efficient entry should be taken in a couple of minutes. I missed that signal and my entery was late because I was having dinner. Perhaps that's the only good signal for today....
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Simplicity is the ultimate sophistication - Leonardo da Vinci
  • #3,456
  • Jun 5, 2024 4:31am Jun 5, 2024 4:31am
Many people must have been caught by this fake move if they were trading now. I haven't. Patience .............
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Simplicity is the ultimate sophistication - Leonardo da Vinci
  • #3,457
  • Jun 5, 2024 6:33am Jun 5, 2024 6:33am
All the mess up. Typical indecision, choppy day. Perhaps no good oppotunity today.....
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Simplicity is the ultimate sophistication - Leonardo da Vinci
  • #3,458
  • Jun 20, 2024 3:11am Jun 20, 2024 3:11am
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https://www.fxempire.com/forecasts/a...idance-1439550
Simplicity is the ultimate sophistication - Leonardo da Vinci
  • #3,459
  • Jun 28, 2024 5:11am Jun 28, 2024 5:11am
Quoting heispark
Bought July-Aug-Sep butterfly spread @ -0.095. This trade must be completed within 20 to 25 days. {image}
It was a losing trade. If I closed it before the last trading day (26th), my loss would have been about $250. Instead, I decided to trade during the last trading day, which was turned out to be a very bad idea, and my loss increased to $1000 due to thin liqudity. Spread was wide and iregular and I had to accept 10 ticks of spread to exit my 3 positions. Anyway, lesson learned. Instrestingly, unlike AMP and other discount FCMs, Advantage allows trading during the last trading day. Advantage is really a prefessional grade FCM and I like it the most.

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Simplicity is the ultimate sophistication - Leonardo da Vinci
  • #3,460
  • Jun 28, 2024 5:38am Jun 28, 2024 5:38am
April25-May25-June25 butterfly:

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Margin is $262 at this time of writing. Pending sell @ 0.200.
Simplicity is the ultimate sophistication - Leonardo da Vinci
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