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Flying Dutchman

  • #9,881
  • Nov 16, 2023 11:40am Nov 16, 2023 11:40am
Quoting turnip15
Not trading today but whilst doing other things tried an experiment on the US500. TT often mentions the "Bermuda Triangle" so when I saw the US500 run up I thought I would wait for a tipping point ( Through Roadmap channel) -break of lows on the left by lows on the right hand descending price leg. Seems to work as price went back to origin. But I am not sure if this was just lucky or a common thing. But I am not sure why it formed the "Triangle. If I was I could do well waiting in the wings for such price action. For example : the leg down on the...
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Master your Mind,,,Master the Market
  • #9,882
  • Nov 16, 2023 12:53pm Nov 16, 2023 12:53pm
Quoting bluesteele
{quote} {image} {image} {image}
Just a follow up. Price -showing a 5min chart with first "Triangle but now showing a second "Triangle" that has passed through 2:30pm UK ( New York Open) and has returned to the Open.. Also a one minute chart showing both.
Kevin - just now digesting your charts - thanks for the reply, much appreciated.
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every Saint has a past. Every Sinner has a Future
  • #9,883
  • Nov 16, 2023 1:36pm Nov 16, 2023 1:36pm
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Master your Mind,,,Master the Market
  • #9,884
  • Nov 16, 2023 4:29pm Nov 16, 2023 4:29pm
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Master your Mind,,,Master the Market
  • #9,885
  • Nov 16, 2023 5:27pm Nov 16, 2023 5:27pm
Quoting turnip15
Not trading today but whilst doing other things tried an experiment on the US500. TT often mentions the "Bermuda Triangle" so when I saw the US500 run up I thought I would wait for a tipping point ( Through Roadmap channel) -break of lows on the left by lows on the right hand descending price leg. Seems to work as price went back to origin. But I am not sure if this was just lucky or a common thing. But I am not sure why it formed the "Triangle. If I was I could do well waiting in the wings for such price action. For example...

Hi turnip,
Mate imo I reckon no one (in retail) really knows why it happens.
But over time our observations can lead us to search & find a personal paradigm (assumption / concept) for why the market does what it does.

Price can essentially only do two things, go UP or DOWN (after range/inflection) and for any of the big players to make any money out of all the trader involvements then price must move first.

The harder the move (volatility) the more likelihood over time of a full return. If not a full return then around a 50% return to a mid-point equilibrium where both buyers & sellers who are not already flat on their trades (closed) are caught in the middle.

The psychology of what a trapped trader might do is then maybe likely to affect the next market move (ie close our for current TP or Loss or maybe ADD to a losing position, averaging down or adding TO a current winner) plus of course all NEW traders entering at that point.

ie price goes up (down) and then stalls at either a "tipping" point (of inflection) - but then can EITHER continue in the same direction (grind) OR REVERSE.

These are the points on the map that either trick or are a bonus for traders.
I tried hard early to be a pin point perfect reversal trader BUT COULD NOT.
Does that mean I cannot be a reversal trader.
NO.
It means I have to WAIT for a signal to show me (personally) that the market HAS reversed.
(and at which point I have then missed the original 5-10 pips of that move).
But no fomo, missing the start of the reversal does two things (for me), confirms it HAS begun and the other is missing out on getting caught in a Grind fiurther.


Here's EJ, but not a day review chart, just the original (george) 15m targets that in his & many traders' views WILL be taken by the market at some future point.

all the best traders.
Be safe, first, then trade to your "best"

.
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  • #9,886
  • Nov 16, 2023 5:33pm Nov 16, 2023 5:33pm
FIBS measured moves... Large timeframes Short timeframes
Being aware of what happening around you..Sometimes not much other times you bet.

Just my perspective on trading dont profess to be right or wrong..Just how I see things thru my eyes.

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Master your Mind,,,Master the Market
  • #9,887
  • Nov 16, 2023 5:36pm Nov 16, 2023 5:36pm
Quoting bluesteele
FIBS measured moves... Large timeframes Short timeframes
Being aware of what happening around you..Sometimes not much other times you bet. Just my perspective on trading dont profess to be right or wrong..Just how I see things thru my eyes. {image} {image} {image} {image} {image} {image} {image}

Picture tells a thousand words.
cheers Kev
  • #9,888
  • Nov 17, 2023 3:40am Nov 17, 2023 3:40am
Quoting TimeTells
{quote} Hi turnip, Mate imo I reckon no one (in retail) really knows why it happens. But over time our observations can lead us to search & find a personal paradigm (assumption / concept) for why the market does what it does. Price can essentially only do two things, go UP or DOWN (after range/inflection) and for any of the big players to make any money out of all the trader involvements then price must move first. The harder the move (volatility) the more likelihood over time of a full return. If not a full return then around a 50% return to a...
Another Triangle after breaking previous High and breaking an "M" pattern albeit "Roadmap" would have triggered the short. However, my point is this: if , not recognising the short, one could, suspecting or hoping for a triangle, we could follow the price down and catch the long as price rounded upwards ( or made a "bee") for a nice long ( again triggered by my "Roadmap" approach - others have their own approach so substitute what I say for your own theory.) Point is I got some pips prior to the inverted pyramid or "Bermuda" and a few more on the upward leg of the said pattern which returned to the "M" pattern ( and double top)
In pure "Roadmap" mode there was a long from open; short through prev. High; long towards and through previous High.
Writing this I missed another short that would quite possibly be stopped out. Now price shows a long but I am going to stop for the session because I think price is tightening up as it has previous sessions at this time of morning. Like TT says, don't be greedy.
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every Saint has a past. Every Sinner has a Future
  • #9,889
  • Nov 17, 2023 4:38am Nov 17, 2023 4:38am
And the last trade for the week. Just to clarify that i could not see a reversal in the 15 minute chart yesterday so waited for today. After the news and a decent drop i was waiting for the turn and it happened around 185.5. Good 20 odd pips which i would say is minimum on this pair. Who knows what will happen next but i am happy with what i got. So as per the method which i started discussing since last week, this week there were reversals on Monday, Tuesday, Wednesday and today. For me i took only 2. Not bad. 45 pips for the week with this method.

Trade Well All.
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  • #9,890
  • Nov 17, 2023 5:25am Nov 17, 2023 5:25am
Quoting whitesta
And the last trade for the week. Just to clarify that i could not see a reversal in the 15 minute chart yesterday so waited for today. After the news and a decent drop i was waiting for the turn and it happened around 185.5. Good 20 odd pips which i would say is minimum on this pair. Who knows what will happen next but i am happy with what i got. So as per the method which i started discussing since last week, this week there were reversals on Monday, Tuesday, Wednesday and today. For me i took only 2. Not bad. 45 pips for the week with this method....
45 pips per week and you are on your way W
every Saint has a past. Every Sinner has a Future
  • #9,891
  • Nov 17, 2023 5:30am Nov 17, 2023 5:30am
Quoting bluesteele
FIBS measured moves... Large timeframes Short timeframes Being aware of what happening around you..Sometimes not much other times you bet. Just my perspective on trading dont profess to be right or wrong..Just how I see things thru my eyes. {image} {image} {image} {image} {image} {image} {image}
Last chart - wot session be the Pink rectangle please Kevin - interesting relationship with the yellow?
every Saint has a past. Every Sinner has a Future
  • #9,892
  • Nov 17, 2023 6:16am Nov 17, 2023 6:16am
Update on Dax - Momentum slows around or just before 10am and Triangle opportunities diminish. Levels are still worth looking at to make one more alert as they are approached by price. I find I am too tired to scalp after two or two and a half hours so tend to bugger off around 10am or shortly before or after.
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every Saint has a past. Every Sinner has a Future
  • #9,893
  • Nov 17, 2023 6:40am Nov 17, 2023 6:40am
E/J experiment continues - if only it had momentum like this every day for the scalper. Having said that I think it is a safer, slower mover for the cautious scalper overall ?
Have a good weekend all.
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every Saint has a past. Every Sinner has a Future
  • #9,894
  • Nov 17, 2023 6:56am Nov 17, 2023 6:56am
Quoting turnip15
E/J experiment continues {image} {image}
EJ is quite interesting nowadays. Regular interventions against carry trades. If You have the day direction, great. But IF NOT....Hope You can quit...
Be very carefull with it.
  • #9,895
  • Nov 17, 2023 7:52am Nov 17, 2023 7:52am
Quoting turnip15
E/J experiment continues - if only it had momentum like this every day for the scalper. Having said that I think it is a safer, slower mover for the cautious scalper overall ? Have a good weekend all. {image} {image}
Sometimes having a quick look at a correlated pair like GJ will indicate the direction that EJ may follow.

I always look at PD levels on both.

Of Course when BOJ governor Ueda speaks market gets rattled.

https://www.forexfactory.com/news/12...-negative-rate
It never gets easier, you just get better
  • #9,896
  • Nov 17, 2023 10:12am Nov 17, 2023 10:12am
Quoting turnip15
{quote} Last chart - wot session be the Pink rectangle please Kevin - interesting relationship with the yellow?
That would be the UK my fine Sir !
Master your Mind,,,Master the Market
  • #9,897
  • Nov 17, 2023 10:49am Nov 17, 2023 10:49am
I am a firm believer in Patterns and there effectivness. They have been used successfully by many since the inception of charting.
I have seen them work on all Timeframes and use them for entries down to the 1min..
And I use them for analysis on the higher TF's..... Same goes for FIBs

Was up late last night doing some analysis before bed and looking at GJ. anyhooo some more background first..
Trendlines yep I use them but i dont enter off a TL break etc...They are context and often will form PART of a pattern.

Why do I use a Line chart...simply its the most effective (correct imo) way Its based on the CLOSE
There is zero question on where to draw it...and crystal clear on a chart.

A symmetrical triangle forming which is just a pattern of consolidation... Price is coiling ..something will happen.
Either a breakout to the upside or a breakdown to the downside.

Cutting to the chase.....Plan was if a setup occured this morning I was going to trade it.. But the move happened
literally 30 mins after that screenshot.

No voodoo magic but where does price goto. yep 78.6

Pattern Hunting really is the essence of it all. I love it !

Cheers Fellas

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Master your Mind,,,Master the Market
  • #9,898
  • Nov 17, 2023 11:59am Nov 17, 2023 11:59am
BREAKING DOWN YOUR MIND:
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hahaha ! Truth
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A good short 7min video......

Inserted Video
Master your Mind,,,Master the Market
  • #9,899
  • Nov 17, 2023 4:22pm Nov 17, 2023 4:22pm
GBPJPY the week's market in review

(the market has to "move" for big players to get what they need from trader involvements, we can just tag along for the ride at our discretion)

.
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  • #9,900
  • Nov 17, 2023 4:35pm Nov 17, 2023 4:35pm
Quoting Shabs19
{quote}
Sometimes having a quick look at a correlated pair like GJ will indicate the direction that EJ may follow.
I always look at PD levels on both. Of Course when BOJ governor Ueda speaks market gets rattled. https://www.forexfactory.com/news/12...-negative-rate

Spot on.

And the EURJPY week's review for turnip here.

.
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