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  • #25,621
  • Nov 6, 2023 2:56pm Nov 6, 2023 2:56pm
Quoting Nehemah
{quote} Variance and edge are different things. Variance measures the dispersion around the mean. When you have a significant edge, you can possibly beat the spread and the slippage and possibly minimize the variance when it is negative. With a threshold, the starting edge is so negative that even a positive variance will not necessarily be saving. On the other hand, threshold and negative variance are guaranteed bankruptcy. In the long term, on a smoothed variance, you will simply suffer the negative starting edge (threshold) with the certainty...
Yes, you explained perfectly, and the the promotions are not here every day of the year, so it could make a big difference.

Hope one day will come back MFF with the same offer and spreads, I did not in time to test MFF just when I needed it, but hope futures will replace it with the same results.
in holiday till end of November
  • #25,622
  • Nov 6, 2023 2:59pm Nov 6, 2023 2:59pm
Today APEX win, 24 points high/low of Sp500, very few opportunities for me, just 1 trade
in holiday till end of November
  • #25,623
  • Nov 6, 2023 3:02pm Nov 6, 2023 3:02pm
So the fight with the hearing is tomorrow for MFF ?
  • #25,624
  • Nov 6, 2023 3:08pm Nov 6, 2023 3:08pm
Coming back to futures props one thing i like to mention about tick tick trader. They offer Jigsaw and bookmap platforms for free with level 2 data. This might interesting for some traders.
  • #25,625
  • Nov 6, 2023 3:22pm Nov 6, 2023 3:22pm
Quoting Nehemah
{quote} Variance and edge are different things. Variance measures the dispersion around the mean. When you have a significant edge, you can possibly beat the spread and the slippage and possibly minimize the variance when it is negative. With a threshold, the starting edge is so negative that even a positive variance will not necessarily be saving. On the other hand, threshold and negative variance are guaranteed bankruptcy. In the long term, on a smoothed variance, you will simply suffer the negative starting edge (threshold) with the certainty...
Trading smaller helps as well. As an avid poker player, boy, do I know variance.
Depending on the game you are playing, cash, 1- table SNG or multi table tourneys, will determine what % of your bankroll should be in play. For example, if you have $100 bankroll, you cannot play $50 MTT and expect not to replenish the bankroll....rule of thumb was always 100 buy-ins for MTT, 30 buy-ins for 1 table SNG, and I personally used a 50 buy-in rule for cash games. This is to avoid EVER having to replenish your roll. These days, sometimes I'll throw $50 in SOLELY to play a $50 tourney...these are all $50+$5 (fee), but keeping it simple here.
Crossing this over to trading, knowing your winning %, R:R, sharpe ratio, etc helps determine what you should risk per trade.......if you have a $2,000 account or a $2,000 max loss with a prop, 1% per trade affords 100 losses, 2% affords 50 etc.....however, trailing is a complete different ball game......The approach with thes ultra cheap trailing DD has to either be a YOLO to pass or grab $500-600 and close as close to your high water mark as possible. Once funded, same approach for a hit and run, rinse and repeat OR get to the point where it doesn't trail any longer and trade like a normal account.......of course, if you hit and run and withdrawal to the point of violating....you can put that in a personal account and be in exactly the same position.
  • #25,626
  • Nov 6, 2023 3:54pm Nov 6, 2023 3:54pm
Quoting pipmaster77
{quote} TBH, I discovered the same exact thing. Once I began trading the indices, which were CFD's with the props, I found myself trading less and less forex. It's a manipulated market, not to mention you essentially must be, at the least, "paying attention", if not in, 24 hours per day. I'd wake up at 3 am to see how the London open was manipulating my GBPAUD trade.....no thanks.
What do you consider as manipulation in the forex market and what makes trading indices a better alternative for you?
  • #25,627
  • Nov 6, 2023 3:56pm Nov 6, 2023 3:56pm
Quoting youngD
Coming back to futures props one thing i like to mention about tick tick trader. They offer Jigsaw and bookmap platforms for free with level 2 data. This might interesting for some traders.
thank you to remember, I will go to check now!
in holiday till end of November
  • #25,628
  • Nov 6, 2023 4:14pm Nov 6, 2023 4:14pm
Quoting lddd
{quote} What do you consider as manipulation in the forex market and what makes trading indices a better alternative for you?
Since it is on a regulated exchange, everyone is seeing the same price. In forex, your broker and/or LPs is/are the market maker(s). It is why you can see a spread of 1 on an instrument with broker A and a spread of 6 with broker B. They also freeze their platforms, have random price spikes, add false slippage......it goes on and on Main point is the broker is the counterparty to your trade, you win, they lose and vice versa......Don't get me wrong, you can still make money, but it is manipulated for you not to.
  • #25,629
  • Nov 6, 2023 4:18pm Nov 6, 2023 4:18pm
Quoting pipmaster77
{quote} Since it is on a regulated exchange, everyone is seeing the same price. In forex, your broker and/or LPs is/are the market maker(s). It is why you can see a spread of 1 on an instrument with broker A and a spread of 6 with broker B. They also freeze their platforms, have random price spikes, add false slippage......it goes on and on Main point is the broker is the counterparty to your trade, you win, they lose and vice versa......Don't get me wrong, you can still make money, but it is manipulated for you not to.
Good point, since retail FX is highly decentralized it is easy for brokers to mess with. Futures there’s no such animal.
Trade with confidence, trade without fear.
  • #25,630
  • Nov 6, 2023 4:27pm Nov 6, 2023 4:27pm
Quoting pipmaster77
{quote} Since it is on a regulated exchange, everyone is seeing the same price. In forex, your broker and/or LPs is/are the market maker(s). It is why you can see a spread of 1 on an instrument with broker A and a spread of 6 with broker B. They also freeze their platforms, have random price spikes, add false slippage......it goes on and on Main point is the broker is the counterparty to your trade, you win, they lose and vice versa......Don't get me wrong, you can still make money, but it is manipulated for you not to.
Just get in the right mind what Uncle Sam is saying to you with the CFTC......you are also allowed to bet your house in Las Vegas.
  • #25,631
  • Nov 6, 2023 6:43pm Nov 6, 2023 6:43pm
Quoting pipmaster77
{quote} Since it is on a regulated exchange, everyone is seeing the same price. In forex, your broker and/or LPs is/are the market maker(s). It is why you can see a spread of 1 on an instrument with broker A and a spread of 6 with broker B. They also freeze their platforms, have random price spikes, add false slippage......it goes on and on Main point is the broker is the counterparty to your trade, you win, they lose and vice versa......Don't get me wrong, you can still make money, but it is manipulated for you not to.
What does Korbs say? FX is for kiddies and futures for adults. Not that I agree totally but futures is better in a sense that it is real and not a video game. The video game can still be used to make money but bucket shops can't afford to have too many winners. This whole space of late has revealed some hard reality and well, futures here I come baby.

*** non-video endorsement alert! ***

Inserted Video
  • #25,632
  • Nov 6, 2023 7:11pm Nov 6, 2023 7:11pm
Quoting pipmaster77
{quote} Since it is on a regulated exchange, everyone is seeing the same price. In forex, your broker and/or LPs is/are the market maker(s). It is why you can see a spread of 1 on an instrument with broker A and a spread of 6 with broker B. They also freeze their platforms, have random price spikes, add false slippage......it goes on and on Main point is the broker is the counterparty to your trade, you win, they lose and vice versa......Don't get me wrong, you can still make money, but it is manipulated for you not to.

Don't brokers net the positions of all clients and then take the counter position to that for clearing purposes?
If that is the case, it's not really personal. The broker isn't sitting accross from you at the table ready to eat you. It'sjust how things are done.
  • #25,633
  • Nov 6, 2023 7:38pm Nov 6, 2023 7:38pm
Update for the day:

1. MFF - REceived FUNDED ACCOUNT n already down 3% (cable longs smoked)
2. Skilled - Passed need to wait for the end of the week.
3. BlueGuardian - negative 3%. on phase 2
Extreme gut feeling trader
  • #25,634
  • Nov 6, 2023 7:55pm Nov 6, 2023 7:55pm
Quoting FocusWinReal
{quote} What does Korbs say? FX is for kiddies and futures for adults. Not that I agree totally but futures is better in a sense that it is real and not a video game. The video game can still be used to make money but bucket shops can't afford to have too many winners. This whole space of late has revealed some hard reality and well, futures here I come baby. *** non-video endorsement alert! *** https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=lp7t97nar_8
It’s going to be an adjustment for some. I was used to trading Indicies via CFD’s for a few years before going all in on a futures account. That experience helped greatly.
Trade with confidence, trade without fear.
  • #25,635
  • Nov 6, 2023 9:10pm Nov 6, 2023 9:10pm
Time to take the APEX plunge. I can't resist a good sale. Time to learn a new skill set.
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
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Pride always comes before destruction.... -Proverbs 16:18
  • #25,636
  • Nov 6, 2023 9:38pm Nov 6, 2023 9:38pm
Quoting Expo33
Time to take the APEX plunge. I can't resist a good sale. Time to learn a new skill set. {image}
Nothing new they have sale almost every long weekend 90% and remaining time 80%.
  • #25,637
  • Nov 6, 2023 10:10pm Nov 6, 2023 10:10pm
hi folk i mainly trade Yen Cross
like EURJPY can trade in future ?
  • #25,638
  • Nov 6, 2023 10:51pm Nov 6, 2023 10:51pm
Quoting HengkiTjen
hi folk i mainly trade Yen Cross like EURJPY can trade in future ?
Trade euro and yen combination. There is no direct EUR/JPY cross.
  • #25,639
  • Nov 6, 2023 10:52pm Nov 6, 2023 10:52pm
Quoting Capablanca
{quote} I'm catching this train late. You're using tradovate with the copier ?
Duplikium Copier works with Ninja and all Ninja brokerages.Has anyone tried this ?
  • #25,640
  • Nov 6, 2023 11:11pm Nov 6, 2023 11:11pm
Quoting Expo33
Time to take the APEX plunge. I can't resist a good sale. Time to learn a new skill set. {image}
Several years ago I had access to Rithmic/Ninja. I can't remember why or what I had it for. It may have been for TopStep but who knows? All I know is it gave me a massive migraine.

Anyway, I just purchased one 100K FULL account with Tradovate. Just trying to get signed in and get the disclosures signed gave me a migraine.

Needless to say, I will be spending a lot of time watching and reading tutorials this week to get up to speed in the futures game.

But for now, it's bedtime for Bonzo.
Pride always comes before destruction.... -Proverbs 16:18
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