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Flying Dutchman

  • #9,781
  • Nov 4, 2023 7:40am Nov 4, 2023 7:40am
Quoting TimeTells
{quote} Hi dave, I don’t actually trade to REACH the very targets pip-perfect. I just trade to TP (take profit). In doing that I trade in-between two targets. (There is always one immediately above and one below price at any point in time). For example, say a 25 pip range is between two Targets at this juncture in the market moves. Price leaves one target & heads for the other. (Well that is the concept lol hahaa ) I can happily then miss the first 5 pips waiting on a structure re-test or move as a confluence event for example....
Good post
Some good examples of your thought patterns
I could add a few things to that
But unfortunately I am just no good with the written word
ps
Loved the Dutching example
  • #9,782
  • Nov 4, 2023 3:35pm Nov 4, 2023 3:35pm
Quoting TimeTells
{quote} Hi dave, I don’t actually trade to REACH the very targets pip-perfect.
It's understandable the way you trade as during the asian session with lower volume than say the UK or US session,
the likelihood of shorter swings is more prevalent.

Once more volume comes in, the swings ( target to target ) are much larger statiscally and ADR is more likely to be met giving very
often more places to enter and also add-on positions as market allows.

Trader (You) has to adapt to the market & time he/she trades. No one rule fits all.

Different Strokes for different Folks
It never gets easier, you just get better
  • #9,783
  • Nov 4, 2023 4:07pm Nov 4, 2023 4:07pm
Quoting Shabs19
{quote} It's understandable the way you trade as during the asian session with lower volume than say the UK or US session, the likelihood of shorter swings is more prevalent. Once more volume comes in, the swings ( target to target ) are much larger statiscally and ADR is more likely to be met giving very often more places to enter and also add-on positions as market allows.
Trader (You) has to adapt to the market & time he/she trades. No one rule fits all. Different Strokes for different Folks

BINGO
  • #9,784
  • Nov 4, 2023 4:20pm Nov 4, 2023 4:20pm
Quoting OAPDave
{quote}
Good post Some good examples of your thought patterns I could add a few things to that But unfortunately I am just no good with the written word
ps Loved the Dutching example

Cheeers dave.
Last horse racing post (promise lol ).

The great Melbourne Cup is on again next Tuesday (OUR time).
It was called the "race that stops a nation".
As a 5yo kid at school it was fantastic as we got a Public Holiday and a day off hahaa. (Guess I got hooked in early )

Don't ask me who will win, as I haven't seriously studied form for over a decade now (but I will look in for the spectacle).

A top down view of the famous Flemingon racecourse where it will be run.
They start the Big two mile race (now 3200m hahaa) from the top left straight right up highest in the shute,
then do a lap and half to the post, bottom left near the large stand.

You can also see that THIS pic was taken at a time when the adjoining Maribyrnong River on the right was in flood.
This will not be the case next Tuesday (tho it is Melbourne so you never really know hahaaa)

Now back to trading

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  • #9,785
  • Nov 4, 2023 6:28pm Nov 4, 2023 6:28pm
Quoting TimeTells
{quote} Cheeers dave. Last horse racing post (promise lol ). The great Melbourne Cup is on again next Tuesday (OUR time). It was called the "race that stops a nation". As a 5yo kid at school it was fantastic as we got a Public Holiday and a day off hahaa. (Guess I got hooked in early ) Don't ask me who will win, as I haven't seriously studied form for over a decade now (but I will look in for the spectacle). A top down view of the famous Flemingon racecourse where...
A little story from my dim and distant past that might amuse you
We had a local greyhound track, so in general we all knew one another to a small degree
One of the Bookies had a good dog and was always bragging about it
But my mate had a very good dog and never bragged
so eventually dogs met in a race
During the run up to the race, the Bookie rang my mate and said again said his dog was the best but to be sure if my mate would put his dog (away) they could make a sure few bob
But my mate said No his dog was the best and would not agree
The day of the race the Bookie rang him again with the same story , again my mate said No
Well the time of the race came
Our close group of trusted friends lined up, one guy in front of each Bookie as we usually did when we had a plot sorted
The Bookies saw us all taking our positions , to be honest we made it very oblivious.
At this point the Bookie who owned the dog started to run his dog out in price, and kept my mates dog very short
All the other Bookie followed the move
As the dogs started to enter the Traps my mate gave the signal to dive in and place our bets by taking his hat off
Bang we all moved at the same time and placed our bets
Yep you might have guessed now, we placed our bets on
The Bookies dog and even had the cheek to bet it with him, before him and his crew could strike
Result
The Bookies Dog won and he and his crew made nothing as we had taken all the prices
A few weeks latter the dogs met again
This time No call from the Bookie
Now his dog was opened fav and the punters all thought my mate was afraid to take him and his dog on
So we all lined up again, but this time his crew beat us too the bet as my mate had not took his hat off
When his crew had all finished and gave us all a smirk
then my mate took his hat off
Bang we all moved and placed our bets
Yep this time, on my mates dog, he did the job for us romping over the line as the winner
Not sure what the moral of the story is, indeed if any
But they were good times, and we all remained friend even the Bookie who just said Well Done you crafty bugger you out smarted me twice but I will get you next time . Sadly he never did as he joined our crew
  • #9,786
  • Nov 4, 2023 6:48pm Nov 4, 2023 6:48pm
Quoting OAPDave
{quote} A little story from my dim and distant past that might amuse you
and we all remained friend even the Bookie who just said Well Done you crafty bugger you out smarted me twice but I will get you next time .
Sadly he never did as he joined our crew

Hahaaa, a great story dave


When I came over to trading currencies, a seven trillion dollar a day market, with 5% encompassing retail - so a huge POT or POOL
I said to myself the market is probably too big & regulated for there to be any shenanigans

Of course, where there is money & men (generically speaking lol)

.... there will be high organisation (and manipulation)

If we know all that going in ... best we play with their movements
and from the edges if we can
and while just employing the smallest amount of patience
(ie break, re-test, confirmation)
we might then just get onto the current "ride of the wave'

all the best
  • #9,787
  • Nov 4, 2023 6:53pm Nov 4, 2023 6:53pm
Quoting TimeTells
{quote} Cheeers dave. Last horse racing post (promise lol ). The great Melbourne Cup is on again next Tuesday (OUR time). It was called the "race that stops a nation". As a 5yo kid at school it was fantastic as we got a Public Holiday and a day off hahaa. (Guess I got hooked in early ) Don't ask me who will win, as I haven't seriously studied form for over a decade now (but I will look in for the spectacle). A top down view of the famous Flemingon racecourse where...
This guy lives in your neck of the woods, he as been around as long as I can remember, you must have heard of him
This is his latest offering
It interests me, because my friend and I paid a guy a few years ago to make some software for us to do a similar thing
He got it nearly their and we had a couple of good weeks , we then asked him to make a small mod
Strangely then the software stopped working and suddenly the guy would not reply to us in anyway shape or form just disappeared
http://www.racingpricemonitor.com/
  • #9,788
  • Nov 4, 2023 7:41pm Nov 4, 2023 7:41pm
Quoting OAPDave
{quote} This guy lives in your neck of the woods, he as been around as long as I can remember, you must have heard of him This is his latest offering It interests me, because my friend and I paid a guy a few years ago to make some software for us to do a similar thing He got it nearly their and we had a couple of good weeks , we then asked him to make a small mod Strangely then the software stopped working and suddenly the guy would not reply to us in anyway shape or form just disappeared http://www.racingpricemonitor.com/

Hi dave,

No I don't know this guy, sorry.
Mate I wrote MY OWN software programs back in the day,
I never listened to anyone touting other horses,
and I specifically avoided hearing other people's opinions on horses.

The racing game (like the trading game) was full of gurus.
And I only recorded, watched & reviewed all the races in a localised area.
Back then, of course, horse racing was just on Saturday & Wedenesday (midweek) ONLY

Now they race seven days a week, aussie punters can bet here & also on overseas races etc etc etc
It's only a numbers game now (maths) - if you are unable do your own study from observations imho.
Overkill killed the die hard assessment horse punter AND ALSO diluted (imo) the quality of horses to punt on in the overall horse pool

By that I mean the average (the 'mean' in trading terms) of horse quality has diminished and lowered and traits like class, determination, courage etc have also been diluted except at the very top level.

Too much racing imo. Then the chemists came in (as we have talked about) to try and enhance weak ability into survival or winning ability.
Try and code that factor into your database.
Doesn't work.
At present the wall-to-wall horse racing I now liken to just playing the slot machines.
The inherent beauty of the challenge to assess, rate, qualify and then test your ratings against the bookie is pretty much all gone.

Buy someone elses package of assessment for money now, and it's your own choice.
I had to do my OWN assessments or not at all.

If you punt for fun on the neddies then no probs and can enjoy it for its moments.
I ran mine business-like, back in the day (NOT pro, just business-like)

These days if I ever returned (maybe later in the old folks' home hahaa) I would choose one small country town, get to know just their local horses in detail,
and then speculate on that compressed horse target market.

Like I sort of do with GBPJPY hahaaa, get to know a "small town" family and see what I can achieve.

all the best on the punt tho
  • #9,789
  • Nov 5, 2023 4:25am Nov 5, 2023 4:25am
Quoting TimeTells
{quote} Hi dave, No I don't know this guy, sorry. Mate I wrote MY OWN software programs back in the day, I never listened to anyone touting other horses, and I specifically avoided hearing other people's opinions on horses. The racing game (like the trading game) was full of gurus. And I only recorded, watched & reviewed all the races in a localised area. Back then, of course, horse racing was just on Saturday & Wedenesday (midweek) ONLY Now they race seven days a week, aussie punters can bet here & also on overseas races etc etc etc It's only a...
Hi
Like you say, we will close this off topic weekend conversation which I have enjoyed as it as taken me back to a very enjoyable chapter in my life
Leave you with this
I cannot go into the finer details for obvious reasons, this happened way back when
One of our trainers visited your country and came back with a little precede some of your guys had developed
All have his horses set off like a Bullitt out of a gun, one or two even fell at the odd fence got up and still won
Lets just say the rumor's started that the reason for the improvement and style of running was the cause of
(Blood Letting)will not go into any details on that
They even had to change the rules of racing that if a horse fell it could not be re-mounted and race on
In general I agree with you
But you have to accept it and move on
What I tried to do and the guy with his latest software as done to some degree is try to spot
When the (face's)put their money down
Its got nothing to do with all the aspects of form courage etc
Now of course when you see the money go do you could reverse engineer and say why are the betting now etc
The term Follow the Money was born
I will finish here
I could say a lot more but the subject is better spoken about in a pub with a pint in your hand
ps
It's often said we cannot see
True volume in FX
or they widen the spread to what ever they want when ever they want
Why ?
they cheat but we acept it ?
  • #9,790
  • Nov 5, 2023 6:15am Nov 5, 2023 6:15am
Quoting TimeTells
{quote} Hi dave, No I don't know this guy, sorry. Mate I wrote MY OWN software programs back in the day, I never listened to anyone touting other horses, and I specifically avoided hearing other people's opinions on horses. The racing game (like the trading game) was full of gurus. And I only recorded, watched & reviewed all the races in a localised area. Back then, of course, horse racing was just on Saturday & Wedenesday (midweek) ONLY Now they race seven days a week, aussie punters can bet here & also on overseas races etc etc etc It's only a...
Some horse racing history for leisure reading:
https://www.oncourseprofits.com/top-...-horse-racing/
( I believe Alex Bird loved betting on photo finishes)

Some interesting character studies and insight into the persons lives

Enjoy the remainder of the weekend.
every Saint has a past. Every Sinner has a Future
  • #9,791
  • Edited 7:55am Nov 5, 2023 6:30am | Edited 7:55am
Quoting turnip15
{quote} Some horse racing history for leisure reading: https://www.oncourseprofits.com/top-...-horse-racing/ ( I believe Alex Bird loved betting on photo finishes) Some interesting character studies and insight into the persons lives Enjoy the remainder of the weekend.
Some interesting names there
Loved Barny, Terry JP

But if you have some free time
Read about the guy who owns
Brighton Hove Albion F C
its quite eye opening
think it was the Sunday Mail that done an article on him
https://uk.finance.yahoo.com/news/in...090759947.html
  • #9,792
  • Nov 5, 2023 9:20am Nov 5, 2023 9:20am
Quoting OAPDave
{quote} Some interesting names there Loved Barny, Terry JP But if you have some free time Read about the guy who owns Brighton Hove Albion F C its quite eye opening think it was the Sunday Mail that done an article on him https://uk.finance.yahoo.com/news/in...090759947.html
Brighton Hove, my Dads brother used to play for them about 50yrs ago
  • #9,793
  • Nov 5, 2023 9:33am Nov 5, 2023 9:33am
Quoting T721
{quote} Brighton Hove, my Dads brother used to play for them about 50yrs ago
If he is looking down
he would say it's changed a little since my day
Football was fun then, now it's just a business
Saying that Bloom is one of the better owners
he at least thinks of the fans and they love him
His mates the same at Brentford Fc
  • #9,794
  • Nov 5, 2023 9:43am Nov 5, 2023 9:43am
Quoting OAPDave
{quote} If he is looking down he would say it's changed a little since my day Football was fun then, now it's just a business Saying that Bloom is one of the better owners he at least thinks of the fans and they love him His mates the same at Brentford Fc
Im not into football so no idea who Bloom is. My dads brothers name is Trevor Taylor, i think he played for them in the 70s
Agree, its just about money now and nothing else
  • #9,795
  • Nov 5, 2023 5:13pm Nov 5, 2023 5:13pm
Monday is Fun Day (but for us or them lol) so off we go.

The US is on daylight savings now also so New York will open an hour later for us here in Aus.

GJ lol.
Where will price go & what will it do.
Trade safe well, trade well all.

.
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  • #9,796
  • Nov 5, 2023 7:06pm Nov 5, 2023 7:06pm
Always a little tentative on the first trade of the day.
ie what is the market up to

They took out the prev weeks high as the new high of the day, then sold off
will they go a little higher later, who knows
we shall see

keep watching is all, and see if they line it up for a bigger move north OR south now
they can't hide it ultimately, it will be on the charts
just a quick TP and regroup lol

all the best folks

.
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  • #9,797
  • Nov 6, 2023 3:24am Nov 6, 2023 3:24am
Quoting TimeTells
Always a little tentative on the first trade of the day. ie what is the market up to They took out the prev weeks high as the new high of the day, then sold off will they go a little higher later, who knows we shall see keep watching is all, and see if they line it up for a bigger move north OR south now they can't hide it ultimately, it will be on the charts just a quick TP and regroup lol all the best folks . {image}
Balls of Steel Trading.
Until 2 am (UK) when volume enters, price can go anywhere IMHO.
It never gets easier, you just get better
  • #9,798
  • Nov 6, 2023 3:54am Nov 6, 2023 3:54am
Quoting Shabs19
{quote}
Balls of Steel Trading.
Until 2 am (UK) when volume enters, price can go anywhere IMHO.

Until the Franky - London Fake'N'Flip lol it actually can't (well doesn't) go just anywhere imo lol. It goes somewhere (which can be observed).
I often wonder if it IS just a repeatable algo that works on the accumulation/aggregation factor but who really knows. I just trade it.

Today I was finished for the day about 2hrs prior to Franky run-up, which then saw the London Fake return before price did then venture 'anywhere'
lol ie up, straight to the Day r1 and then the 185.750 just above it (standard daily targets that I usually watch).

However chasing an asia 15p, which suits me, I was out & finished about 2hrs prior to Franky open at +20p after picking the eyes of the aggregation flows.
A lucky day, probably hahaaa.
But I've been watching some Frasier re-runs since then, S2 Ep3 The Matchmaker which was a funny brilliantly scripted episode.

I think you're correct Shabs, thank you for the balls of steel compliment but it is a well rehearsed mechanic the market can play regularly in Asia.
I reckon other traders that will take on the post-London moves AND THEN the NY shenanigans have the strongest of nerves, I have an easier arrangement I think.

Plus I would HAVE to restructure all my current trade setups I reckon to handle the times & sessions you folks have under control so you all have my respect .
( I record all my trades at completion to review later when I do get it WRONG, and I do get em wrong - with little damage I hope)

(ps I missed the "sitter" extra 10p with the mini gap far left under the 185.000 and noted it to myself to not miss those again in the future )

cheers again


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  • #9,799
  • Nov 6, 2023 4:04am Nov 6, 2023 4:04am
Asia rotating mechanics, followed by Franky open, then London F'N'Flip, then blastoff.

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  • #9,800
  • Nov 6, 2023 4:05am Nov 6, 2023 4:05am
My simple structure view of GJ.
PDH taken out and respected, further break & retest going into Europe & London.

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It never gets easier, you just get better
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