Flying Dutchman

Yes I recall that Shabs
...Not many coincidences on this game .... Makes me think of coknng into an end of a month for ex on a Friday...with the right setup and being shy of the AWR., boom shaka laka boom... It's a great tool in the toolbox !!

Found the post, it was actually Crude.

Eggs--actly

Hi Dave,
From long term observations, the ADR is likely the most viable of outer targets.
I have seen on other occasions of course an ADR not being reached (less likely)

And as well as, and especially with the GBPJPY as I follow it (occasionally ),
a burst PAST the usual ADR which in GJ terms becomes the now infamous Grinder (which is sometimes 2 x ADR) (much less likely)

Yet your chart annotation Dave, "do they gun for an ADR ?"
is a valid enough ... yes, for me ... imho.
All the best

All the best for freaky Friday traders.

A quick yesterday review on GJ
(ps: pretty much bounced between the week open at bottom and the month open at top yesterday)
.

Update

cheers dave

Okay the new day begins, Tokyo is open, Shanghai, Hong Kong and Singapore in 1hr & 15 mins oops on the o'clock (influx of liquidity)

Where might they take the market over the course of the day.

Trade well, trade safe folks.

This site should reset to your own timezone, if not key in your city name.

All the major market hours and openings.

https://www.worldtimezone.com/forex12.php

Okay folks I won't keep bombarding the thread, promise lol.

The "trade" chart below is from my #1 Live Broker
who does NOT see (lol, I'm not paranoid, just careful ) my Day Review Templates and targets which I post
(which are loaded on my #2 Live Broker a/c).

This morning I waited till direction started forming.
Once in motion (more apparant on a 1min chart, for me) I look at what Targets might be being considered by the larger market.
It appeared (to me) they were going to run the Yesterday London Open to Yesterday New York Open zone block (who knows really, I just watch)
Then I trade and just manage my risk.

Each day they seem to run a varied target block, it is not always the same imo.


From here with my +10p in the kick I now close up shop
And come back for Franky/London and see if I can (?) do it again
(NO guarantees lol, we are trading in shark infested waters )

After taking TP (which is my focus) well that is it usually me done for the session.

I have no worry if they now take price deeper in 'my original direction' OR WHATEVER (no fomo),
some music and a morning cup o' tea. And relax.

Trade safe folks please, trade well.
.

Looking for a Sell High Opportunity as I stated this morning on the SPX... It happened I wasn't trading at that time tho.

I don't guess. I don't predict. I only look at Scenarios and probabilities...It is all grounded in OHLC(50%)
those are my main "Levels" Round numbers too especially when they line up with any of the above.

I get it wrong but I get it right more often than not..Its really not that hard once you get the concepts down.

So here's the chart I posted this morning..And in that post is another bigger picture chart..

And here is the chart after the fact...You can see price came into my "playground" the Market Makers playground.
Why is it the market makers playground ? well a few ideas...One Traders on smaller TFs will see that TL break with candles closed
above the trendline and simply go long. Others will see the large Impulsive candles on say the 15m scale down to the 1 or 5 and see
candles closing above the TL and go long...Psychology of the markets.

3 Major key concepts...
1)Price is always in a box...
2)price only does 3 things. 1.Breakout(in various forms) 2.Breakout>Reverse and 3.Range/Consolidate
3)Where is the Money ? What traders are in profit? Longs shorts.. Think #1 and look at the pic in my quoted post..

Yesterday's low...Lowest Low in 7 days....Back to the basics ...Structure.. HHs HLs LHs LLs...
SO yesterday's MAjor Swing Low was immediately broken next day in Asia...Hmmm Radar Alert
AND Yesterday's Open LH Yesterdays Close LL hmmm radar Alert

What does this mean ? It Means larger TF traders are in the market Short..Breakouts of Major Swing Lows...
Actually I will post the same larger pic chart here marked up an annotated... Maybe that helps someone..

Hopefully you can see my reasoning why I thought a Short Sell was in order.. Using some basic concepts along
with a structured thought process.. IF THEN THAT scenarios and probabilities..

Here's the chart after the short ..( I removed the Asia info to unclutter the chart for clarity)

Its been a while, i didnt post as i am done with FF , love your charts, always.

here is the same chart with a different recipe.

Love it Bilal !...Just headed to bed (past bedtime) but will give your chart a good eyeball in the morning .. Been wondering where you are !
Searched your name the other week and thought hmm...Where is he
Nothing wrong with being done with FF.. So true "a different recipe" great way of looking at it...

Drop me a pm anytime my friend
Cheers
Kevin

Sorry guys, 4got to update this for you just in case anyone followed me
Probably see a bounce soon, maybe from next grey zone

Among other things, I use pitchforks. They are not easy to use as there can be many ways to interpret the pivots, hence many more PF's could be drawn than what I've done on my chart (which leads to a LOT more lines and confusion, and second-guessing which lines are going to bounce or not).

Preface: The Key to my personal Pitchfork terminology:
I refer to every PF by its color. Given that these are all regular Andrews pitchforks -- not derived, such as a Modified-Schiff is -- then I use acronym "AN", short for Andrews, along with a "+" or "-", followed by an integer, or a decimal fraction to indicate which target line is being referred to.
The middle line of a Pitchfork is commonly known as the MedianLine, or ML. I call this a "+0" line, as in "AN+0".
What others call the Upper-Median-Line (UML), I call the "+1.0" line.
What others call the Lower-Median-Line (LML), I call the "-1.0" line.
A line which is 1/2 the distance between, for example, AN+0 and AN+1.0 is obviously "AN+0.5' (a "half-line", and the "+" means it's above the AN+0).
Using this method, it is straight-forward to give every single PF target line a specific label to indicate its graphical location relative to the +0 reference.


As hindsight, these observations are near worthless, but nevertheless:

1. Black PF is drawn using pivots at 1, 2 and 10. I claim that the MedianLine (ML, or what I call "black AN+0") resonance at 3 (gray circle), is one reason to go short at 10 ( *as* the pivot at 10 forms, not yet knowing whether it will hold or not).
2. Blue PF drawn at 4, 7, and 10, given the resonance at 6 (blue circle) is another reason to go short at 10, although it would have suggested a slightly higher 10 than what occurred, maybe by ~ $4.
3. Obviously at 10, there is the prior slightly higher pivot at 4, so it would have to have a lot of momentum/buyers to clear above 4.
4. Red PF drawn at 5, 6, 7 is a very obvious PF to draw.
5. Notice price bounced at 8 (what I call "red AN+0.5"). Price also bounced at 9 ( "red AN-1.5" ). The red PF is resonating so far!
6. PS: Edit: Draw a trend-line from 2 to 7. Extended forward, the low at 9 exactly bounces off of this line.
   As a reader-exercise, draw a PF using 2, 4, and near 15. Notice this same 2-7-9 line -- as a new AN+0 line -- becomes a target where to form a new pivot Low near 15, which it tries to, but ulimately fails; and it then breaks-and-retests this not-drawn pitchfork exactly below 15.
7. By the time price rises to 10, it hits the "red AN+0" (MedianLine) target perfectly and bounces down. Another strong reason to short at 10.
8. At 11, I've drawn a sliding parallel NOT based on any reason at 11, but only because there occur later several pivots that resonate very near that line. I backed up the line origin to the earliest anchor point that matched the resonance observed. However, it could very justifiably be drawn anchored at 12, and it would have resonated with a "hit" later at 14. (A reason to go short at 14).
9. At 12, the red AN-1.0 broke previously, and this is an underside test of the same line.
10. At 13, having reached the blue AN+0 (ML), there are three tests and brief punches through (lower) (suckering in shorts??). The last of these touches is barely anything below the blue AN+0, meaning there's a better chance for a stronger retracement (which occurs, and ends at 14).
11. Also at 13, those same 3 drives-lower at the end happen to be touches of the black AN+0.5 line! The first of these is highly accurate. The 2nd, and then 3rd, are each a little more punching below black AN+0.5, but the last one is what held most accurately to blue AN+0, so the attempts to break lower through black AN+0.5 are done (for now).
12. At 14, as mentioned, it holds at a blue sliding parallel.
13. I notice at 14, it's also holding below former Support back at pivot A, but this is pure hindsight observation (I wouldn't likely have noticed real-time).
14. By the time at 15, price has broken below the blue AN+0 line (and black AN+0.5 line). It has retested the blue line from below. It goes slightly above, attempting to go higher, but notice if it does, it would have to contend with a strong black AN+0.5 line that already resonated prior to the break lower.
15. Obvious targets exist down around 16. The black AN+0 (ML). The blue AN-1.0. And the prior low at 2.
16. Not shown, but the pivot at 10 -- which already had plenty of other reasons to go short there -- is also a near perfect touch of the Weekly R50 pivot target. However, I don't pay much attention to pivots (not Weekly, nor Monthly, nor Daily), and plenty of lines fail to hold at pivot lines with precision, so the few that do are not that impressive to me.

There are plenty more PF's that could be drawn, and I'll also mention that though the first black pivot (at 1) is valid, there is an even higher-high prior to it that ought to be considered. (If drawn, it's ML coincides with the largest retracement between 15 and 16). The above discussion highlights what "worked" as S/R PF targets; the PF's I didn't show are not necessarily in agreement or disagreement, but when trading, you never know, and must consider all reasonably drawn PF's.

Anyway, this gives a brief exposure to some things I pay attention to. Again, since this chart is hindsight, it's not meant to impress... but the techniques are those I do use to find live targets!

Excellent summation P4L.. very detailed...and as for hindsight...Well my thinking is without hindsight there is not foresight... Every professional trader I know they all ..they all all all,,, always are going over the historic charts... mapping out scenarios etc.... There is no fwd without the past IMO....

It never ceases to amaze me how the market moves in sync with so many different methods! I believe in finding what resonates with you as an individual..methods timeframes etc...then stick hard to it..tweak it optimize it...THe edge will show if there ..then exploit it as best as you can... This is a individual zero sum game like no other... Thank you for this perspective P4L. always enjoy other views !

Cheers
Blue

A personal post....

Stressful Saturday,,,,As a hurricane hit my home in Mexico today as well as my loved ones down there,,,,
There is no home insurance available..due to the proximity to the water and to hurricanes etc.. Watched all day the
satellite coverage and the videos people posted, Thought for sure major damage at the very very least,,,,
Got word a little while ago...Todo bien...water damage yes..but nothing structural...Roof stayed on etc.

All I can say is Gracias Dios....poured myself a strong one...havent had a drink in many months lol...but now
this evening ...its destress time....any further posts from me may be influenced lol....
We live to fight another day...

CHeers
Blue

We live to fight another day...

Always. Cheers Blue, glad your loved ones are save. No so pleased about the water damage, but it sounds like it could have been much worse.

Sending our Prayers to you & your loved ones. Hope all are safe.