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  • #20,881
  • Oct 7, 2023 5:52am Oct 7, 2023 5:52am
hello fellow traders

israel has started a war and i was curious about its effects on gold and started looking online.
google states that israel has 0 tons of gold reserve and also israels name doesnt come up in the top gold reserves country.
on the other hand google also states that israel have a gold reserve of 194500 million us dollars.
which calculates to a total of 3050 tons which makes israel stands at no. 3 country with most reserves.
according to this gold will shoot up on monday.

this is only my study and please correct if something is wrong.

thanks
  • #20,882
  • Oct 7, 2023 6:18am Oct 7, 2023 6:18am
war conditions started ..... Gold is about to fly i think again ...?? Am i right? Israel announces state of war
  • #20,883
  • Oct 7, 2023 6:54am Oct 7, 2023 6:54am
A good read for gold traders:
Unwinding the Financial System by Macleod:
https://schiffgold.com/commentaries/...ancial-system/
  • #20,884
  • Oct 7, 2023 7:40am Oct 7, 2023 7:40am
Quoting timingchain
A good read for gold traders: Unwinding the Financial System by Macleod: https://schiffgold.com/commentaries/...ancial-system/
What is it describing sir i dont got it?? Plz tell me here what is the good news
  • #20,885
  • Oct 7, 2023 8:16am Oct 7, 2023 8:16am
Quoting fontu
price breaks over 1833.35 at least proved a bounce intention for next 1840/50 but to break the previous high it may needed correction below 1822.68 , with or without previous high 1834.86 though . so still bottoming need before real bounce for some correction ! so may get a better entry for buy also! lets see {image} {image} {image}
Studying Fontu daily chart it is apparent that a quite clear channel is visible. Also a retrace to 1884.86 is possible this would fulfil the repeated support becomes resistance phenomena in markets. However how price movement will do this is an unknown.
Next week on Monday the lower channel touch point is 1797, Friday 1789.

Thank you Fontu for posting your charts. On first glance my initial reaction was this looks like a bowl of spahgetti. Studying them showed me otherwise.
  • #20,886
  • Oct 7, 2023 9:10am Oct 7, 2023 9:10am
Quoting Chancy
{quote} Studying Fontu daily chart it is apparent that a quite clear channel is visible. Also a retrace to 1884.86 is possible this would fulfil the repeated support becomes resistance phenomena in markets. However how price movement will do this is an unknown. Next week on Monday the lower channel touch point is 1797, Friday 1789. Thank you Fontu for posting your charts. On first glance my initial reaction was this looks like a bowl of spahgetti. Studying them showed me otherwise.
lets see what actually , not any enough what we may think , do make all spaghetties create channels from all hypothetical point / srs as in middle 2 channels from below 2 point where we not know the upper sr be , with changes lower points upper also repaint! greater channel from higher confirmed 2 srs and may point to lower point almost exactly. nearby also ok , like now price too near but not hit level of interest and 1804.76 as old level of intermediate sr remain intact. so needed a breaks and back if real intention or reversal at least . price avoiding to me means it wants back in strong hand next and more deeper. again price in hypothetical body of my present swing theory towards 1740, a good correction was due around intermediate support , above short lived , below little long lived or suspicious ! there are great space now to play in the correction up where limits are 1884 and 92 . both should play/nearby one after another . in that sense bear still in loner term favour, 1884/92 versus 1740/1665 ! take care
Attached Image(s) (click to enlarge)
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Not understand?better not follow my analyses!doubt clearer first, risks ++
  • #20,887
  • Oct 7, 2023 9:27am Oct 7, 2023 9:27am
Quoting fontu
{quote} lets see what actually , not any enough what we may think , do make all spaghetties create channels from all hypothetical point / srs as in middle 2 channels from below 2 point where we not know the upper sr be , with changes lower points upper also repaint! greater channel from higher confirmed 2 srs and may point to lower point almost exactly. nearby also ok , like now price too near but not hit level of interest and 1804.76 as old level of intermediate sr remain intact. so needed a breaks and back if real intention or reversal at least...
Perfectly elaborated
My smaller waves needs a retracement to 47/65 atleast...
Its all about Timing!!!
  • #20,888
  • Oct 7, 2023 9:46am Oct 7, 2023 9:46am
Quoting Murugesh29
https://www.forexfactory.com/news/12...n-enter-israel Will this make gold an upward movement? 1880 target confirmed, monthly pivot,will buy if any drop to Friday pivot... Trade safe
Wont make much of an impact IMO, Palestine has had conflict for the longest time now, Isnotreal announcing war won’t change much, at least from Americas POV.
  • #20,889
  • Edited 10:40am Oct 7, 2023 10:12am | Edited 10:40am
Quoting Funkykid
{quote} What is it describing sir i dont got it?? Plz tell me here what is the good news
Andrew Maguire is a major gold trader in London who offers good insight to the PM markets.

Macleod covers gold market manipulation by central banks and bullion banks--who crush small traders like us. He says the system is primed for collapse of markets, with gold soaring, and possible collapse of paper markets like Comex. A dangerous time for small traders.

Correction: I was thinking of Andrew Maguire when I first wrote the above. Macleod is more on the theoretical side of market analysis.
  • #20,890
  • Oct 7, 2023 10:35am Oct 7, 2023 10:35am
This is how I see the the chart for the coming 1-3 weeks. Maybe Im wrong, but I think is gonna retrace after last 2 week sharp fall.
Trade safe.
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
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  • #20,891
  • Oct 7, 2023 12:20pm Oct 7, 2023 12:20pm
Quoting ObadaAdel
{quote} LOL. Looser. This is what you get for being ignorant.
_________ @obad ,hey mf that was totally Not nice capice
Don’t focus on making $$$, focus on protecting what you have.
  • #20,892
  • Oct 7, 2023 1:29pm Oct 7, 2023 1:29pm
sorry, but I do not look at Dollar Index to trade gold
daily gold & crude.., price change for around one year
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
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October & November last year gold was at lowest ( 1620th) & crude "almost" at highest (92.50th) price
than both pairs made a gap "up" in March this year, crude closed it in a month time on the way down, gold left it and continued up
than highest price for gold (2080th) & lowest for crude (64.20th) happened on May 4th (same day (!))
after that crude went up and showed price even higher (95.) than one year ago on September 28th & gold same day felt under 1900th
I am curios if we have seen already "lowest" for gold (1810th).., or lower to come
imo, we can see a possible range with upper line of 1900 (!!!) during this month (?) because if gold didn't spike "down" to close this gap, she will stay here for a while.., can be wrong
and btw, can we expect "quiet" October(???)
dolce vita
  • #20,893
  • Oct 7, 2023 1:39pm Oct 7, 2023 1:39pm
" I am curios if we have seen already "lowest" for gold (1810th).., or lower to come " = lower to come IMHO
Don’t focus on making $$$, focus on protecting what you have.
  • #20,894
  • Oct 7, 2023 2:18pm Oct 7, 2023 2:18pm
...to continue my previous post
crude daily, stoch, fib of first half of the year
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
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crude went at 161.8% fib ext.

gold, daily, stoch, fib of first half of the year
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
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161.8% fib for gold at 1634th.., back to "one year ago" price

and if we put this fib upside down gold now between 0. (1804th) and 9% (1829th).., almost broken
what is important about this % levels for me (?!)
if 0. won't be broken we can see "big" pullback ( cannot call it reverse because we at daily chart) from 9 to 61.8% fib (1908th area)
and I have already mentioned before that I watch 04-29 range.., still do
dolce vita
  • #20,895
  • Oct 7, 2023 3:54pm Oct 7, 2023 3:54pm
once more about PPs, Weekly, Monthly, missed
next week we have WPPs at 1825-1830th area as my indy shows
this month PPs at 1880.79 (Classic) & 1872.20 (DeMark's) are still available

and plenty of missed PPs.., Daily (last & this week), Weekly (last & this week), Monthly
let's start from the top

above the price:
2022.97 (12.05), DPP
1997.87 (17.05), DPP
1991.51 (June/23), MPP
1935.01 (21.09), DPP
1928.76 (September/23), WPP
1919.58 (26.09), DPP
1905.83 ( 27.09), DPP
1884.80 (28.09)
1873.39 (October/23), WPP
&
below:
1724.39 (December/22), MPP.., will gold go for the only one below left (???)

and we won't talk about missed PPs at 1200th area, right(?)...,
sorry if I missed anything

P.S. will be back with some new ones on Monday
dolce vita
  • #20,896
  • Edited 9:07pm Oct 7, 2023 8:50pm | Edited 9:07pm
Quoting babayaga
once more about PPs, Weekly, Monthly, missed next week we have WPPs at 1825-1830th area as my indy shows this month PPs at 1880.79 (Classic) & 1872.20 (DeMark's) are still available and plenty of missed PPs.., Daily (last & this week), Weekly (last & this week), Monthly let's start from the top above the price: 2022.97 (12.05), DPP 1997.87 (17.05), DPP 1991.51 (June/23), MPP 1935.01 (21.09), DPP 1928.76 (September/23), WPP 1919.58 (26.09), DPP 1905.83 ( 27.09), DPP 1884.80 (28.09) 1873.39 (October/23), WPP & below: 1724.39 (December/22), MPP.., will gold go for the only one below left (???) and we won't talk about missed PPs at 1200th area, right(?)..., sorry if I missed anything P.S. will be back with some new ones on Monday
Nice Work

Quoting Murugesh29
Break of 1812 can lead us to 1725 area...gold last bottom value (76.4%) {image}
Gold can have the bottom of 1724.22(76.4%) like ur missed MPP below



Avoid my trendline drawn
missed to remove
Attached Image(s) (click to enlarge)
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Its all about Timing!!!
  • #20,897
  • Oct 7, 2023 9:16pm Oct 7, 2023 9:16pm
Quoting Murugesh29
{quote} We r at 261.8% at 1816, this s a falling wedge,still not convinced for bounce. {quote} My first wave pattern of wave 5 at 161.8% 1821... Second pattern has covered 261.8% of wave 3 1816... But still wave 5 has of second pattern needs to cover something below... Expecting retracement to 1847(last ms2)(23.6%) and fall to 1800 and extension for sl hunting... Trade safe
Quoting Murugesh29
{quote} Weekly 200SMA at 1813,ms1 at 1811.95 Weekly 200EMA at 1772,ms2 at 1775.94 , expecting retracement here and fall to 177X area fr sl hunting... Trade safe
As expected,
W SMA 200 pushed up.
Waiting for retracement to 1951.88 and W SMA 100 @ 1954(My watching area)


Trade Safe
Its all about Timing!!!
  • #20,898
  • Edited 12:20am Oct 8, 2023 12:09am | Edited 12:20am
This seems like a Bullish crab harmonic :

guys don't easily let go of your bullish positions before Federal reserve meeting. They should hike the interests for gold to see lower than 1800. safety that gold provides in times of war and threats of war demands it. that is my idea come to your conclusion.

1847 is my first tp 1880 is the last tp.
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  • #20,899
  • Oct 8, 2023 6:12am Oct 8, 2023 6:12am
GOLD/USD (Daily): the price has been rejected from the major support zone.
Next week we may see a reversal of the downtrend.
The current level may be good for taking profits on short trades, and for looking for long entry on lower timeframes.
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: XAUUSD_Daily.png Size: 41 KB
  • #20,900
  • Oct 8, 2023 8:34am Oct 8, 2023 8:34am
Quoting Jolita
{quote} Previous month low 1949.52 not taken out yet, might retrace for a bit towards 1980-90 area , but go lower to 1910 and 1867. Trade safe as no one can advice you on your trading, you make trades at your own risk, wish you success Daily and 4 hr{image} {image}
I found old circle at 1800 and gone back to my post where I've marked the circle, it took a while to reach this area.

Probability price will stall at this level 62.8% Fib most of times where trend reverse. Looking at chart we consolidate (1hr chart). Daily compressed, migh continue LH or break out the bearish trend.

Attached Image (click to enlarge)
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