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  • #9,401
  • Sep 24, 2023 6:54am Sep 24, 2023 6:54am
Quoting FocusWinReal
{quote} Yes TT all candles required with or without BOJ jaw flapping. {image}
I am only demonstrating why you should stand aside when there is Red News, unless you have really Deep Pockets and your analysis is Spot On.

You would be a sitting Duck, with all the shenanigans, during Red News.

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It never gets easier, you just get better
  • #9,402
  • Sep 24, 2023 2:47pm Sep 24, 2023 2:47pm
Quoting Shabs19
{quote} I am only demonstrating why you should stand aside when there is Red News, unless you have really Deep Pockets and your analysis is Spot On. You would be a sitting Duck, with all the shenanigans, during Red News. {image}
That's certainly true, and specially for FOMC, CPI and NFP
  • #9,403
  • Sep 24, 2023 9:53pm Sep 24, 2023 9:53pm
Quoting Shabs19
{quote} I am only demonstrating why you should stand aside when there is Red News, unless you have really Deep Pockets and your analysis is Spot On. You would be a sitting Duck, with all the shenanigans, during Red News. {image}
I agree on the news candles being a place to avoid Shabs. However, anticipation of certain behaviour and the after-effects can be either clear or not. Pre and post news (jabfest etc.) non-gambling approach of clear context for ex. Your post was fine and I enjoy your charts.

Cheers...
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  • #9,404
  • Sep 24, 2023 10:10pm Sep 24, 2023 10:10pm
Quoting Shabs19
{quote} Maybe talikng about the GJ, BOJ is going to start Buying GBP again ? USDJPY getting close to all time Oct 2022 Highs USD getting expensive, GBP is dropping like a stone vs USD down 10% from July Highs {image} Disclaimer: this is not financial advice, I am no expert, just my own personal opinions. Do your own analysis please.
A cheap export focussed currency for Yen is the focus of BOJ JPN gov perhaps??? Not sure.
Would love to see the yen get stronger.
  • #9,405
  • Sep 25, 2023 4:23am Sep 25, 2023 4:23am
Quoting handy148
{quote} That's certainly true, and specially for FOMC, CPI and NFP
Remember" too Big To Fail?"

25 Years Ago Today, Two Nobel Laureates Received A $3.6 Billion Bailout, Launching Too Big To Fail

https://www.forexfactory.com/news/12...eates-received
every Saint has a past. Every Sinner has a Future
  • #9,406
  • Sep 25, 2023 5:36am Sep 25, 2023 5:36am
Quoting turnip15
{quote} Remember" too Big To Fail?" 25 Years Ago Today, Two Nobel Laureates Received A $3.6 Billion Bailout, Launching Too Big To Fail https://www.forexfactory.com/news/12...eates-received
How big is too big?

Inserted Video
Success = Practice + Patience + Persistence
  • #9,407
  • Sep 25, 2023 11:17am Sep 25, 2023 11:17am
Quoting bluesteele
! ! ! 88% Probabilities in your trading How about 94% ! ! ! (disclaimer...no matter the high probabilites YES they are true....you can still very very easily lose...why...Risk mgmt and YOU) Well i poked my head in over on twitter and found some interesting things RE: Boxes , Al Brooks, Probabilities , Data Just remember there is nothing new in trading...Just like Blues Box..just an old retread lol thats revamped to suit me. First some context : Al Brooks trading the Opening Range....90% probabilities...Nothing new unless spit polished packaged up...
Strangely if you blindly longed the close of the 18th M5 candle today you'd have creamed it on most of the indices lol
  • #9,408
  • Sep 25, 2023 12:25pm Sep 25, 2023 12:25pm
Quoting handy148
{quote} Strangely if you blindly longed the close of the 18th M5 candle today you'd have creamed it on most of the indices lol
Lots of good setups when you add a bit more to the equation... ES/ SPX Booker of a trade in the box...retracement to the 930 open and bang...

Only traded oil today..was long off bar 19 I think was a pin.. but it had other factors that made it a good candidate... off the charts now as once trades are closed I don't want to look as I get itchy fingers lol..

But yep good old probability trading !!!

Cheers
Master your Mind,,,Master the Market
  • #9,409
  • Sep 26, 2023 1:02am Sep 26, 2023 1:02am
Franky just opened, Asia did its business, next session stages begin. Then off to NYork for those able to be awake

.
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  • #9,410
  • Sep 26, 2023 2:04am Sep 26, 2023 2:04am
Quoting TimeTells
Franky just opened, Asia did its business, next session stages begin. Then off to NYork for those able to be awake . {image}
That's a wicky turd of a ranging GJ there TT. Le FX just ain't worth the wait sometimes. Very low ADR these days.
  • #9,411
  • Sep 26, 2023 2:26am Sep 26, 2023 2:26am
Quoting FocusWinReal
{quote}
That's a wicky turd of a ranging GJ there TT. Le FX just ain't worth the wait sometimes. Very low ADR these days.

Looks even more of the same on a 4hr chart, since the dropoff last Wednesday (for us in Aus).

Is okay for scalping inside the ranges imo.

.
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  • #9,412
  • Sep 26, 2023 3:22am Sep 26, 2023 3:22am
Quoting TimeTells
Franky just opened, Asia did its business, next session stages begin. Then off to NYork for those able to be awake . {image}
At London Open, 3 markets are open, HK/Shanghai, Franky & London, so the volume goes up quite a bit right there.

The set-ups for LO are usually right into the first 30mins of Franky Open.

Edit:
Unusually the M5 chart for GJ looks clearer than the M15 for structure. Some clear BOS prior to Franky Open, Retest (twice) & Drop.
It never gets easier, you just get better
  • #9,413
  • Sep 26, 2023 5:26am Sep 26, 2023 5:26am
@post 8,326 i just listened to the podcast,the guy comes across as a chancer but the book could be a good read,thanks for the heads up !
  • #9,414
  • Sep 26, 2023 9:42am Sep 26, 2023 9:42am
Here's a few charts showing the importance of OHLC not only the current days
but also previous days OHLC .... We all know previous highs and lows as most
traders use them...

But what about daily NY close ? And the NY equity Open ? If your not paying attention
to the Open and Close your missing 50% of the equation. O H L C

Why the NY close instead of the daily open.. The big Institutional money controls the NY close,,,Its all about the close..

The Daily open line...It just happens to be the rollover after the close...So it will closely coincide .

The largest volumes are at the Open and the Close period. So it makes sense to trade when the market is moving... This is just my opinion tho and there are many traders who trade outside of the Open hours quite successfully...Im only relating How I see the markets.

So here's some charts that I hope are easier to understand than my words and hopefully
someone gets something from it .

All the Best !
Blue

Note Oil chart 3rd and 4th chart...First chart "The MATRIX" second chart shows trade on the
OUTSIDE of the Matrix...Sometimes the boundaries of where not to trade are crystal clear
other times not so much,,,But timing remains constant Cheers

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Master your Mind,,,Master the Market
  • #9,415
  • Sep 26, 2023 10:26am Sep 26, 2023 10:26am
How GJ volatilty has been falling, should pick up in October maybe ?


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It never gets easier, you just get better
  • #9,416
  • Edited 11:09am Sep 26, 2023 10:58am | Edited 11:09am
Are we in the decline between Sept - Oct ?

Attached Image (click to enlarge)
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It never gets easier, you just get better
  • #9,417
  • Sep 26, 2023 12:35pm Sep 26, 2023 12:35pm
Quoting bluesteele
...Sometimes the boundaries of where not to trade are crystal clear other times not so much,,,But timing remains constant Cheers
NY Close is important, in that it is where markets close and some kind of balancing of books is done for each day/week/month.

Although there are also certain times of each day when "Re-Valuation" occurs and traders would adjust their positions.
It never gets easier, you just get better
  • #9,418
  • Sep 26, 2023 12:45pm Sep 26, 2023 12:45pm
Quoting Shabs19
{quote} NY Close is important, in that it is where markets close and some kind of balancing of books is done for each day/week/month. Although there are also certain times of each day when "Re-Valuation" occurs and traders would adjust their positions.
Exactly!
Funny I read your reply and I had an image pop in my mind of the following

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Master your Mind,,,Master the Market
  • #9,419
  • Sep 27, 2023 6:49am Sep 27, 2023 6:49am
Quoting bluesteele
Here's a few charts showing the importance of OHLC not only the current days but also previous days OHLC .... We all know previous highs and lows as most traders use them... But what about daily NY close ? And the NY equity Open ? If your not paying attention to the Open and Close your missing 50% of the equation. O H L C Why the NY close instead of the daily open.. The big Institutional money controls the NY close,,,Its all about the close.. The Daily open line...It just happens to be the rollover after the close...So it will closely coincide ....
Something that caught my eye this morning. 15275 - ish on Dax. The Ellipse ( "Zeppelin") was matched later as price rose into it and dithered around the 75 area and dropped below it for a reasonable short. Price now seems to be matching consolidation on near left. So wait and see if wanting to trade still. Probably other reasons can be found but I think that price action around simple levels works for me
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every Saint has a past. Every Sinner has a Future
  • #9,420
  • Sep 27, 2023 9:52am Sep 27, 2023 9:52am
Quoting turnip15
{quote} Something that caught my eye this morning. 15275 - ish on Dax. The Ellipse ( "Zeppelin") was matched later as price rose into it and dithered around the 75 area and dropped below it for a reasonable short. Price now seems to be matching consolidation on near left. So wait and see if wanting to trade still. Probably other reasons can be found but I think that price action around simple levels works for me {image}
The dreaded FVG again. Theory is the Rapid 25 pip drop (M5 chart) @ 9:35 GMT, from prior consolidation leaves an area to be "Filled".

2 prior rally attempts touched gap, 3rd one "filled" gap @ 14:10 GMT.
It never gets easier, you just get better
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