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Swing Trades DAX/DOW/NQ/GOLD

  • #12,401
  • Jul 13, 2023 7:55am Jul 13, 2023 7:55am
MCL Long last lot (76.41)
T1
33p 3 lot
1 left
Closed +45p at target
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  • #12,402
  • Jul 13, 2023 9:59am Jul 13, 2023 9:59am
Hi Dutchy, looking at the markets today I was left wondering why the Dow was struggling so much compared to the other US and european indices? I thought it could be tech based, but even the Russell is slightly up on the day. Maybe due to the upcoming earnings season? Or investors selling US assets due to weaker dollar? I'm not sure. Any thoughts?
  • #12,403
  • Edited 5:11pm Jul 13, 2023 4:44pm | Edited 5:11pm
Quoting Steamroller
Hi Dutchy, looking at the markets today I was left wondering why the Dow was struggling so much compared to the other US and european indices? I thought it could be tech based, but even the Russell is slightly up on the day. Maybe due to the upcoming earnings season? Or investors selling US assets due to weaker dollar? I'm not sure. Any thoughts?
Hi,

IMHO the DOW is waiting for the first Bank earnings coming soon.
Banks start the earning season as usual.

If it has to do with the weakening US$ I really don't know.
I don't think so. If you see the other markets elevating, they don't care about a weaker US$.

US$ is weakening cause they expect the US rate hikes will become less and be over soon. Thats all I know.

RUSSEL made already a decent hike last week. Up by 4.5% this week.
Stopped at/blocked by MR1 1970 zone.
So RUSSEL seems to take a little pause now.
Next target could be 2000/Daily GAP left open at 1940 zone

DOW 1.8% up this week. DOW is waiting for the bank earnings before it (maybe) gone make a new sprint.
DOW is stalling at 550<>650 zone now. This week & last week POCs

(see the Wk % in the right upper corner)
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  • #12,404
  • Jul 13, 2023 4:53pm Jul 13, 2023 4:53pm
NQ & SnP usually go the same direction.

NQ at M PP Key level now 15.700 zone.

SnP could steam up to 4580>>4600 if the Q2 earnings are good
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  • #12,405
  • Jul 13, 2023 5:18pm Jul 13, 2023 5:18pm
Quoting Dutchy Daxy
{quote} Hi, IMHO the DOW is waiting for the first Bank earnings coming soon. Banks start the earning season as usual. If it has to do with the weakening US$ I really don't know. I don't think so. If you see the other markets elevating, they don't care about a weaker US$. US$ is weakening cause they expect the US rate hikes will become less and be over soon. Thats all I know. RUSSEL made already a decent hike last week. Up by 4.5% this week. Stopped at/blocked by MR1 1970 zone. So RUSSEL seems to take a little pause now. Next target could be 2000/Daily...
U.S. banking giants are scheduled to report second-quarter results starting this week as the industry tries to move past the turmoil caused by the crisis in regional lenders earlier this year.

 

  1. NET INTEREST INCOME (NII)

Investors will also focus on net interest income, a closely watched measure of how much money banks make from lending.
A contraction in NII could spell the end of a boom for lenders that have reaped the benefits of the Federal Reserve's interest-rate increases since last year. And NII forecasts will be key to understanding banks' outlook for future profits.

Big U.S. banks' CRE portfolios put in a surprisingly good performance during the Federal Reserve's annual health checks, with losses declining slightly versus last year, the central bank said last month.
But regional banks have had to cut their exposure to the beleaguered sector by tightening standards and reducing the number of loans.

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  • #12,406
  • Edited 11:01pm Jul 13, 2023 8:05pm | Edited 11:01pm
MNQ Long 6 lot 15.712
T1 +15p 4 lot
2 left SL BE
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  • #12,407
  • Jul 14, 2023 12:29am Jul 14, 2023 12:29am
Thanks, upcoming bank earnings would explain why the dow has stalled/started to drop whilst the other indices plow on ahead.

J.P Morgan starts the release at 6:50am ET. I think this will be the main market mover today.
Earnings Whispers - Earnings Calendar
  • #12,408
  • Edited 1:05am Jul 14, 2023 12:47am | Edited 1:05am
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  • #12,409
  • Jul 14, 2023 1:06am Jul 14, 2023 1:06am
Money transfer from DOW to NQ it looks
MNQ Long 15.716 4 lot
T1 +12p 3 lot.
1 left SL BE zone
Target 745/750 zone (Yest high 740 zone)

NQ long 1 lot 15.717
Closed +10p.
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  • #12,410
  • Jul 14, 2023 5:31am Jul 14, 2023 5:31am
ES Long 4542 1 lot
Closed +9p 1 lot only

MES Long 4542 5 lot
T1 +8p 4 lot
1 left
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  • #12,411
  • Jul 14, 2023 10:47am Jul 14, 2023 10:47am
NQ Short last lot closed +39/40p
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  • #12,412
  • Jul 16, 2023 7:54pm Jul 16, 2023 7:54pm
Fed Open to Another Rate Hike After Expected Increase This Month

Federal Reserve policymakers are primed to resume raising interest rates this month and remain open to a further increase later in the year. While officials were encouraged by a step-down in price pressures last month, they’re not inclined to pronounce an end to their battle to rein in inflation that has repeatedly surprised them with its persistence.


Asia markets fall; China’s economy grew 6.3%, missing expectations
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  • #12,413
  • Jul 16, 2023 9:12pm Jul 16, 2023 9:12pm
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  • #12,414
  • Edited 1:26am Jul 17, 2023 12:39am | Edited 1:26am
DAX Long 16.155 above the Open Range.
Target DPP and Friday close 15.200 zone

FDXS
T1 +30p 3 lot
1 left
Closed +32p last lot

FDXM closed +28p 1 lot

If the DAX can cross the 200 poss target 16.250 DR1/+0.25%
Depends on the US markets

Once serious above the 16.200 I will try a long again for the 16.250 target.

US markets ticking up a little (still bullish), but are in a possible transition zone.
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  • #12,415
  • Edited 2:58am Jul 17, 2023 2:48am | Edited 2:58am
FDXS Short 16.139
T1 +11p 2 lot
T2 +34p 4 lot
2 left
1 closed +25/26p
1 left SL BE
Target 16.050 zone

FDXM short 16.140
T1 +25p 1 lot
1 left
Closed +28p last lot
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  • #12,416
  • Edited 3:18am Jul 17, 2023 2:53am | Edited 3:18am
All Micro positions 2 last lot left with SL BE zone

ES MINI closed +4p 1 lot
YM MINI closed +15p 2 lot
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  • #12,417
  • Jul 17, 2023 3:21am Jul 17, 2023 3:21am
Quoting Dutchy Daxy
FDXS Short 16.139 T1 +11p 2 lot T2 +34p 4 lot 2 left 1 closed +25/26p 1 left SL BE Target 16.050 zone FDXM short 16.140 T1 +25p 1 lot 1 left Closed +28p last lot {image}
DAX at the bottom of todays open range. Need to BO below to drop to 16.050 zone
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  • #12,418
  • Jul 17, 2023 6:46am Jul 17, 2023 6:46am
Stocks are little changed to start the week as traders await key earnings reports: Live updates.

The second-quarter earnings season gains steam this week with results from big financial institutions such as Bank of America, Morgan Stanley and Goldman Sachs. Results are also due from United Airlines, Las Vegas Sands and technology giants Tesla and Netflix.

Wall Street are bracing for what be a gloomy season with lower profits. Analysts forecast a more than 7% decline in S&P 500 earnings from a year ago, according to FactSet.
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  • #12,419
  • Edited 7:07am Jul 17, 2023 6:56am | Edited 7:07am
Quoting Dutchy Daxy
Stocks are little changed to start the week as traders await key earnings reports: Live updates. The second-quarter earnings season gains steam this week with results from big financial institutions such as Bank of America, Morgan Stanley and Goldman Sachs. Results are also due from United...
Tesla(Weds-after market) and Netflix(Weds 1pm PT) could have quite an outsized impact on Nasdaq 100 if they report outside of estimates. Outside of tech I would imagine it will be a slow grind with bounces or at least that is what I'm looking for.
  • #12,420
  • Jul 17, 2023 7:23am Jul 17, 2023 7:23am
US markets are close to BRNs

DOW 35.000
RUSSEL 2100
SnP 4600
NQ 16.000

They have to come with very good Q2 earnings to push it over the edge of these BRNs

But still bullish overall on very low Volume today
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