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  • #11,701
  • Jul 7, 2023 7:19pm Jul 7, 2023 7:19pm
Quoting Zebi
{quote} sorry but i dont think you do know...you know what you read in books on websites or heard the knuckleheads on youtube say it is im an old man who cant type...i went to all boys catholic schools where we would have got beat up by the upperclassmen for being gay if we took typing class LOL i still look for letters cause i havent memorized the keyboard even after 20 years of typing in chatrooms LOL i use the one finger on my right hand to type and sometimes both hands if i feel frisky so instead of wasting hurs typing out a...
Thank you to take your times and effort to help us newbies with explanation and pics example, will be very helpful to understand your thought process. Will try to learn much we can, to be better trader, to be non-emotional, non-compulsive trader
  • #11,702
  • Jul 8, 2023 7:11am Jul 8, 2023 7:11am
Looks kind of like an inverse head and shoulders on the 4 hour.
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
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Commitment of Traders released yesterday afternoon shows that most of the big boys are adding longs.
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I think that once we break that neckline we will have a big up move.
  • #11,703
  • Edited 7:38am Jul 8, 2023 7:24am | Edited 7:38am
Quoting Zebi
these are some of my contrarian oil trades...if you want to learn more go read on the crude oil thread since i dont know how to migrate stuff over to here and im spending to much time on this already oil is at 73.50 now so ill be shorting that too since its got good value {image}
I read your posts on the crude oil and crude oil trading. I find interesting paralel of current price situation to the time you posted your trade.
Current in M15 we see the range low=69.59 to high=73.83, with the prev monthly high at 74.31, that is 48 pipps distance. It looks likely we can looking for short, from Mon with a test volume, or short on good news release day.
Due to prev Thu and Fri strong run, we expect Mon, Tue a retracement back to 72.25 to 72.45 zone, so we set our limit buy order anticipate the third push up to take profit at TP1=73.83 or TP2-74.31. Then revers sell order from there.
For the main trade we are waiting for a motion buy to sell, the buy in the form of a 3 push variation from a consolidation area, maybe from an end of day consolidation area. When seeing that in M15 we can drop to M1 entry time frame and check for pattern (could be SHS, Shooting star, double top, tripple top.) and enter with a good RR at least 1:3
According to https://www.forex.in.rs/oil-pips/
Buy 1 lot, gain 45 pips, profit $45.
Buy 10 lots, gain 45 pips, profit $450.
Market is closed so I can not check. The number is apparently very small, not sure the leverage 1:100 is included. I can check with an order of 0.01 on MT4,
We can use that for calculating the max DD in case price continues to rise from entry 73.83 to 74.31. If price breakout of 74.31+5pips+spread, there is my max stop loss for the test trade.

Sell 0.01 at 73.83 with SL= 74.61 TP1=72.25 TP2=70.9 TP3=70.14 (only for testing the direction and checking P?L size, if price retraces clearly/strongly, cut loss manual)
Buy 0.01 at 73.58 with SL= 73.2 TP=74.3
Buy 0.01 at 72.40 with SL 72.1 TP1=73.58 TP2=74.3
Sell limit 0.01 at 74.31 with SL= 74.6 TP1=73.8 TP2=72.25 TP3=70.9 TP4=70.14
Sell stop 0.01 at 73.83 with SL= 74.6 TP1=73.8 TP2=72.25 TP3=70.9 TP4=70.14

https://charts.mql5.com/36/618/usoil...ftmo-s-r-2.png
  • #11,704
  • Jul 8, 2023 8:11am Jul 8, 2023 8:11am
Quoting de5151
Looks kind of like an inverse head and shoulders on the 4 hour. {image} Commitment of Traders released yesterday afternoon shows that most of the big boys are adding longs. {image} I think that once we break that neckline we will have a big up move.
My view on GOLD is only in M15 so not too strongly probable regarded as H4, but
1/ market maker needs to engineer constatntly orders, if big boy want a big buy order, market maker needs to generaqte a lot of sells and vice sersa.
2/ they are there not to support retailers making profit, so if they let us see a too clear trend move, trendline, a too clear patterm, like SHS/inverse SHS they are up to something bad
3/ Market makers are the one moving the market, they need a lot of money to do so. But they see also a lot of money on the table invested by retailers at wrong place at the wrong time and wrong size, they have no shame take that money to help fuell the move up
4/ by moving up price strongly they caused FVG, gap, price inefficiency, area where they need to come back to recover the drawdown (They have self-inflicted) or kepp the loss small (Mitigating) clean up their business. The move of Thu and Fri caused two FVG gaps at about 1920 and 1906, also by formng the quckly strong up move, some lucky retail traders are still in profit they have either trailing stop loss, or fix stop loss oveiuosly below the last swing low 1902.

So the move up according to H4 is possible, but in M5, M15 the market maker need to clean up the table, engineer much as possible sell orders in the market to match those big buy order they have to fill, and when the market maker buying they want to buy cheap, that is for sure before they moving price up

https://charts.mql5.com/36/619/xauusd-m15-ftmo-s-r.png
  • #11,705
  • Jul 8, 2023 9:11am Jul 8, 2023 9:11am
Quoting lrn2trade23
{quote} I read your posts on the crude oil and crude oil trading. I find interesting paralel of current price situation to the time you posted your trade. Current in M15 we see the range low=69.59 to high=73.83, with the prev monthly high at 74.31, that is 48 pipps distance. It looks likely we can looking for short, from Mon with a test volume, or short on good news release day. Due to prev Thu and Fri strong run, we expect Mon, Tue a retracement back to 72.25 to 72.45 zone, so we set our limit buy order anticipate the third push up to take profit...

nice analysis if somewhat confusing with all the numbers but I noticed on your chart an AB=CD pattern...which confirms my bearish view at least on 15min chart LOL
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
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short trump and go long the deepstate
  • #11,706
  • Jul 8, 2023 9:25am Jul 8, 2023 9:25am
Quoting lrn2trade23
{quote} So the move up according to H4 is possible, but in M5, M15 the market maker need to clean up the table, engineer much as possible sell orders in the market to match those big buy order they have to fill, and when the market maker buying they want to buy cheap, that is for sure before they moving price up https://charts.mql5.com/36/619/xauusd-m15-ftmo-s-r.png
I agree. There will be a lot of moves "down" etc. before ultimately breaking (and retesting) that neck line.
  • #11,707
  • Jul 8, 2023 2:54pm Jul 8, 2023 2:54pm
Hey folks.

Whats your bias next week?
  • #11,708
  • Jul 9, 2023 2:29am Jul 9, 2023 2:29am
Quoting ObadaAdel
Hey folks. Whats your bias next week?
Hi Obada. This is what i am looking for.
We have an inverted head and shoulder pattern at H4 time frame. On friday it completed its neck. 1936-1940 is a level to watch out.
Bullish Scenario: Price breaks out of 1940 level then retests it. Then it will not stop before 1980.
Bearish Scenario: We just witnessed a double top last week, if the price is not able to break that top it will fall down and 1885 will be its next target.
My personal bias: I am expecting a low CPI this week and dollar is getting weaker. With that inverted head and shoulder pattern i think we may be going to 1980 this week. I know the gap between 1940 and 1980 is huge. so we may end up at 1960 this week and 1980 the next.
However, we are still in a bearish trend on daily so bears will try to keep price below1935.
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
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  • #11,709
  • Jul 9, 2023 5:36am Jul 9, 2023 5:36am
H4 : Channel Down
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
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  • #11,710
  • Jul 9, 2023 6:01am Jul 9, 2023 6:01am
No bias waiting Monday
  • #11,711
  • Jul 9, 2023 7:25am Jul 9, 2023 7:25am
We ended the week somewhat high, but still below 1925, and 1932-1938, therefore for now I am speculating it will retest 1900 if not 1892 again (it was only tested once, 1892, therefore this suspicion). If CPI comes in hot, mostly, it could go there again, if not 1885 as final low before being bought nice and cheap, perfect for Indian festive/wedding season. Also Chinese data may well suck, taking Gold down too, along with US, ECB and SZ rate hike front-downloading.
"Who Dares Wins"
  • #11,712
  • Jul 9, 2023 7:27am Jul 9, 2023 7:27am
I wish us all a fruitful week.. (More Green Pips)
Okechukwu Jacob.C.
  • #11,713
  • Jul 9, 2023 8:26am Jul 9, 2023 8:26am
Quoting Pipsolengelo
{quote} Hi Obada. This is what i am looking for. We have an inverted head and shoulder pattern at H4 time frame. On friday it completed its neck. 1936-1940 is a level to watch out. Bullish Scenario: Price breaks out of 1940 level then retests it. Then it will not stop before 1980. Bearish Scenario: We just witnessed a double top last week, if the price is not able to break that top it will fall down and 1885 will be its next target. My personal bias: I am expecting a low CPI this week and dollar is getting weaker. With that inverted head and shoulder...
Thanks mate.
  • #11,714
  • Jul 9, 2023 12:25pm Jul 9, 2023 12:25pm
hello what do you think for the coming week for xau/usd bearish towards the support of 1901 or bullish?
  • #11,715
  • Edited 2:14pm Jul 9, 2023 1:58pm | Edited 2:14pm
Quoting Zebi
before i leave i put a sell limit at 1926 incase bools try another stab at breaking out

welp....after all the intraday small timeframe drama... ended up in profit end of day on my hourly long LOL

will short more hier close to 1930 if im given the opportunity
short trump and go long the deepstate
  • #11,716
  • Jul 9, 2023 2:51pm Jul 9, 2023 2:51pm
Quoting Pipsolengelo
{quote} Hi Obada. This is what i am looking for. We have an inverted head and shoulder pattern at H4 time frame. On friday it completed its neck. 1936-1940 is a level to watch out. Bullish Scenario: Price breaks out of 1940 level then retests it. Then it will not stop before 1980. Bearish Scenario: We just witnessed a double top last week, if the price is not able to break that top it will fall down and 1885 will be its next target. My personal bias: I am expecting a low CPI this week and dollar is getting weaker. With that inverted head and shoulder...
I strongly agree with you boss
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
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Okechukwu Jacob.C.
  • #11,717
  • Jul 9, 2023 2:52pm Jul 9, 2023 2:52pm
Quoting jacobokey12
{quote} I strongly agree with you boss {image}
Though I feel that this is likely the case this week..
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Okechukwu Jacob.C.
  • #11,718
  • Jul 9, 2023 3:20pm Jul 9, 2023 3:20pm
Quoting Zebi
{quote} heres an update to my H+S charts from last month i was using in realtime...dont listen to fookheads that paint their chart after the fact on youtube and pretend theyre traders LOL..they probably make more money than us from views for their stupid ass content however as you can see bools have been running into that anvil and wall for a week and a half now...it will take a herculean effort for them to get up to that candle midpoint everyone seems to be clamoring about but i doubt will get anywhere near there since i got a daily sell signal...

time for an update
Inserted Video
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
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short trump and go long the deepstate
  • #11,719
  • Jul 9, 2023 4:24pm Jul 9, 2023 4:24pm
H2
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: XAU_USD-1 09 07 0 a.png Size: 19 KB

future PPs, weekly&daily, Classic&DeMark's ( PPs indy by NickBixy that I use )
charting with fxstreet
dolce vita
  • #11,720
  • Jul 9, 2023 10:57pm Jul 9, 2023 10:57pm
Quoting aahmad29
{quote} Sell 1912 TP 1903 Buy 1928 TP 1938 Sell 1922 TP 1912 Sell 1932 TP 1922 Buy 1918 TP 1928 (Hit TP) Sell Limit 1922 TP 1912 Sell limit 1932 TP 1922 Sell Limit 1942 TP 1932 Buy Limit 1898 TP 1908 ***Buy Limit 1908 TP 1918 ***Buy Limit 1918 TP 1928 Buy Limit 1888 TP 1898
Sell 1912 TP 1903
Buy 1928 TP 1938
Sell 1922 TP 1912
Sell 1932 TP 1922 (closed manually at 1923)
Buy 1918 TP 1928 (Hit TP)


Sell Limit 1922 TP 1912
Sell limit 1932 TP 1923
Sell Limit 1942 TP 1932
Buy Limit 1898 TP 1908
Buy Limit 1908 TP 1918
Buy Limit 1918 TP 1928
Buy Limit 1888 TP 1898
Love for all; Hatred for none.
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