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  • #17,081
  • Jun 25, 2023 12:05pm Jun 25, 2023 12:05pm
Even Angelo from TFT admits that most live traders die at 5 months.
if you factor the time needed to get adequate data to a book a user it’s only a risk hedge of “don’t lose more” no prop firm is making money from a book. The data doesn’t support it. Some likely eliminate further risk with it which is also diminishing returns due to the excessive dd vs the size of profit split . A book is a losing strategy no matter what. There is stuff a firm could do but I doubt any including the big two are doing it yet.
  • #17,082
  • Jun 25, 2023 12:20pm Jun 25, 2023 12:20pm
Quoting Takisd
Even Angelo from TFT admits that most live traders die at 5 months. if you factor the time needed to get adequate data to a book a user it’s only a risk hedge of “don’t lose more” no prop firm is making money from a book. The data doesn’t support it. Some likely eliminate further risk with it which is also diminishing returns due to the excessive dd vs the size of profit split . A book is a losing strategy no matter what. There is stuff a firm could do but I doubt any including the big two are doing it yet.
He said most but there are traders grinding out 3% to 5% a month and stopping. There are traders that make a living trader so of course there are traders they could batch and have an edge. Even if some lose the probabilities can be tilted your way if you do the math. It can be worth it.
  • #17,083
  • Jun 25, 2023 12:29pm Jun 25, 2023 12:29pm
Quoting BlackOpz
with all of the data on the funded traders you can A-Book the top traders with steady records and good Pearson's (nice equity slope). After 3 months funded I'd start A-booking the best of the bunch to earn piggyback profits.
-Sure. I wonder how many props are actually making profit with A-book, though. The other problem is that the really big earners (problem traders) are likely not going to be A-book, since they are probably over-leveraging and losing accounts a lot. Since these firms would actually be funding the live accounts, out-of-pocket, for anyone that they A-book, then they will want to be very sure that the traders that they select are solid.
  • #17,084
  • Jun 25, 2023 12:29pm Jun 25, 2023 12:29pm
Quoting Takisd
Even Angelo from TFT admits that most live traders die at 5 months. if you factor the time needed to get adequate data to a book a user it’s only a risk hedge of “don’t lose more” no prop firm is making money from a book.
-I agree. But I really wonder how many firms are actually A-booking. Since they are having to fund the accounts, that is a big risk for them, unlike traditional A-book. Although, I suppose that there may be a possibility to do a hybrid A-book, where they group their best traders into a pool and use some algorithm to generate signals from that, where they push those trades to live market, without actually A-booking individual traders. That way, they could be more selective about which trades they are actually using.
  • #17,085
  • Jun 25, 2023 12:41pm Jun 25, 2023 12:41pm
Quoting Takisd
{quote} I think the prop market is bigger than the lottery rn. Other than maybe those billion dollar ones but the regular power ball I think it is competing. That’s why regulation is coming. Can’t go getting people wealthy without Uncle Sam on top of it
Probable future US regulation has been quite the topic recently. I've read with interest as both a US citizen and someone who has not yet taken my piece of the prop firm pie in withdrawals. Still working on it. So, best guess, and I know it's just a guess, could it happen next month or do you think it's happening in 2024 or later?? Later on gives me more time to get it done. Thanks.
  • #17,086
  • Jun 25, 2023 12:43pm Jun 25, 2023 12:43pm
Quoting Nsak3y
{quote}-I agree. But I really wonder how many firms are actually A-booking. Since they are having to fund the accounts, that is a big risk for them, unlike traditional A-book. Although, I suppose that there may be a possibility to do a hybrid A-book, where they group their best traders into a pool and use some algorithm to generate signals from that, where they push those trades to live market, without actually A-booking individual traders. That way, they could be more selective about which trades they are actually using.
Yep, I'm sure it would be a basket algo to catch streaks. If AUDUSD is showing strong movement and most of the traders are winning AUDUSD trades allow the algo to shift to mirror traders that have been winning AUDUSD. Its def doable with an 'edge'. Pro prop firms (the real ones) couldn't exist if mostly winning traders mixed with some losers didn't work as a biz model. Prop firms could copy those biz practices (or develop their own since I'm sure those allocation formulas are proprietary).
  • #17,087
  • Jun 25, 2023 12:49pm Jun 25, 2023 12:49pm
Quoting ForexGalVA
{quote} Probable future US regulation has been quite the topic recently. I've read with interest as both a US citizen and someone who has not yet taken my piece of the prop firm pie in withdrawals. Still working on it. So, best guess, and I know it's just a guess, could it happen next month or do you think it's happening in 2024 or later?? Later on gives me more time to get it done. Thanks.
Unless theres a BIG scandal I'd expect 2025+. Prob hearings and time for public comment like when Forex went belly up. I'd expect a 2-year process or slower. If a firm blows up and it makes the Nightly News then INCOMING! (but maybe not - Nobody really cries when traders lose money). So few people make it to payout that its gonna be hard to get enough burned traders to file a class-action. For regulation you need a LOT of traders that are due a payout but didn't get it. I think thats a pretty small number (especially if most firms payout).

If it turns into a 'gambling' addiction problem then Props will get fire from that direction. That WILL start hearings!
  • #17,088
  • Jun 25, 2023 12:55pm Jun 25, 2023 12:55pm
Quoting ForexGalVA
So, best guess, and I know it's just a guess, could it happen next month or do you think it's happening in 2024 or later?? Later on gives me more time to get it done. Thanks.
-It may not matter too much, since most props, including the top 2, are not based in the US. The question then becomes whether or not such props just stop accepting US clients, or, relocate (or set up sister companies) offshore to a jurisdictional safe-haven.

We have seen already FTMO has decided to blacklist US clients in various states where over-regulation has become a problem. Perhaps they would follow suit if wider measures were employed.
  • #17,089
  • Jun 25, 2023 1:16pm Jun 25, 2023 1:16pm
My bet is regulation goes at the brokers not the prop firms. It’s an easy way to resolve a big problem. Eightcap and all the others should not be allowing US traders on their platform as they do not have a license in the US. The loophole they use can be interpreted as law evasion. Easy out for cftc
  • #17,090
  • Jun 25, 2023 1:36pm Jun 25, 2023 1:36pm
Quoting Takisd
My bet is regulation goes at the brokers not the prop firms. It’s an easy way to resolve a big problem. Eightcap and all the others should not be allowing US traders on their platform as they do not have a license in the US. The loophole they use can be interpreted as law evasion. Easy out for cftc
I don't think that they can do anything about the brokers as they only offer demo accounts and don't take any funds from US citizens. They will first clean the home base and that could happen relatively soon. Not much they can do about the off shore props but those located in EU and UK will face consequences for accepting US clients. EU and UK regulators will also ban the props in their jurisdictions, so the ones inside EU and UK will have to move off shore.
  • #17,091
  • Jun 25, 2023 1:40pm Jun 25, 2023 1:40pm
I guess I lost the top spot for most failed challenges. Oh my!
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
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Pride always comes before destruction.... -Proverbs 16:18
  • #17,092
  • Jun 25, 2023 2:06pm Jun 25, 2023 2:06pm
Quoting Expo33
I guess I lost the top spot for most failed challenges. Oh my! {image}
The 106X must be the guy THEY stopped from buying challenges. TFT said he spent 30K without a payout!
  • #17,093
  • Jun 25, 2023 2:10pm Jun 25, 2023 2:10pm
Quoting Expo33
I guess I lost the top spot for most failed challenges. Oh my! {image}
do you get a certificate for the 100th failed challenge?
  • #17,094
  • Jun 25, 2023 2:21pm Jun 25, 2023 2:21pm
Quoting BlackOpz
{quote} The 106X must be the guy THEY stopped from buying challenges. TFT said he spent 30K without a payout!
Yea, you would think if they really "cared" about finding "good" traders or cared about traders at all they would have given him a timeout. Maybe have a reasonable limit as to how many challenges you can fail in a certain period of time.
Pride always comes before destruction.... -Proverbs 16:18
  • #17,095
  • Jun 25, 2023 2:26pm Jun 25, 2023 2:26pm
Quoting LehmanBrotha
{quote} do you get a certificate for the 100th failed challenge?
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: funded.jpg Size: 168 KB
Pride always comes before destruction.... -Proverbs 16:18
  • #17,096
  • Jun 25, 2023 2:34pm Jun 25, 2023 2:34pm
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Money is made by sitting, not trading
  • #17,097
  • Jun 25, 2023 2:48pm Jun 25, 2023 2:48pm
Quoting Expo33
I guess I lost the top spot for most failed challenges. Oh my! {image}
Then the day they have a big payout they won't pay because his trading style is gambling
  • #17,098
  • Jun 25, 2023 3:02pm Jun 25, 2023 3:02pm
Quoting Vitore
{image}
is this your payout?
  • #17,099
  • Jun 25, 2023 3:13pm Jun 25, 2023 3:13pm
Quoting Expo33
Yea, you would think if they really "cared" about finding "good" traders or cared about traders at all they would have given him a timeout. Maybe have a reasonable limit as to how many challenges you can fail in a certain period of time.
-Unless things have changed, TFTP have a policy that you can be blacklisted if you lose your challenge account within the first 24 hours.

There was no mention of how many passed challenges he had. Perhaps the guy is operating some kind of done-for-you service.
  • #17,100
  • Jun 25, 2023 3:24pm Jun 25, 2023 3:24pm
Quoting Nsak3y
{quote}-Unless things have changed, TFTP have a policy that you can be blacklisted if you lose your challenge account within the first 24 hours. There was no mention of how many passed challenges he had. Perhaps the guy is operating some kind of done-for-you service.
they did (maybe still have) but if I remember well that was only for funded accounts
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