Trading BTC using Wyckoff and VSA Principles

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This is very good place to go short. The stark language from Powell last Friday signals the Fed is dedicated to raising rates which immediately makes diversifying in Crypto untenably risky for institutional investors.

The recent correlation between BTC and the traditional markets is clear - BTC will drop from here.

The most recent 12hr BTC bar closed on its lows with an average bar size and average volume which suggests there is no hidden buying. Institutional investors are simply selling to get out of the market.

Breaking 18k is now an inevitability and so is 17k imo. If 17k is broken 16k will not hold as it is even weaker support. After that the next major support is 12k.

The minor correction of BTC during the US session today is either an effect of it being a UK holiday today or the market pricing in the Powell comments during Friday's move and over the weekend.

My sentiment is that the market is still very weak and there is not nearly enough demand to go higher so 17k will still likely be broken.

Stock futures are sharply up and VIX futures down over -2% which means the traditional market is set to open high but price may not necessarily move much.

This "effort vs result" mismatch is what we've seen for the last day in BTC.

BTC price has slightly risen on a correction but the volume has been quite high, above average, which indicates significant selling pressure.

The 20500 resistance level appears to be holding, I'd expect either a trap up move or reversal in the next couple days.

As predicted there is the downside breakout in BTC

18k will likely not hold and since 17k is weaker support it is expected to be broken as well, then the major slide begins.

17.6k will be tested and temporarily broken soon but the definitive break will most likely not occur until after the Fed meeting in a couple weeks. Until then there will probably be a range between 17.6k and 19k.

The drop on 9/6 is an absorption bar, which means there was no hidden buying, just selling by composite operators/smart money - which pretty much makes the bottom of that bar (18.8k) the top of a new range and strong resistance for the foreseeable future.

I expect dips below 17.6k in the next couple weeks but mostly a sideways market until the Fed statement.

Your volume numbers are off.

They look too consistent and the same and look like wash trades on most bars, this is not how the markets work

Proper volume feeds need the variation including what are called skyscraper large sized volume bars regularly

Get the fixes to this feed then you have a change at some meaningful VSA analytics.

HTH

The volume values shown are exactly the same as the default chart volume which is taken directly from Binance, it's also the 12hr chart, volume does not fluctuate as wildly as it does on the lower timeframes:

This looks like a genuine absorption bar and not to be confused with stopping volume even though the bar is above average size and the volume is excessive - the bar closes on its highs and takes out multiple levels of resistance.

The US dollar dropped and it seems BTC will tarry at this level for longer before the eventual rate hike drop.

Reversal on the 12hr chart at the bottom of the range and Open Interest just flipped, it is dropping as price is rising, before today it was the opposite, interesting behavior before the fed meeting Wednesday which suggests the market has priced in a rate hike.

Yesterday’s BTCUSDT spot volume on the Daily chart is the highest daily volume in BTC’s history.

It was a massive reversal downwards but the only thing that comes close is the March 12th 2020 daily bar’s volume and yesterday eclipsed it. That 3/12/20 bar started a long uptrend.

Looking at the BTC weekly chart it is clear that for the last year BTC has been in an accumulation zone and the recent markup in March represents a breakout to the upside of this channel/zone.

November's markdown, mostly fueled by negative crypto news in the wake of FTX's collapse, resulted in a failed breakout to the downside.

Note the bar range differences in the sideways market after the November failed breakout and after March's breakout.