Flying Dutchman

OBESE ZEPPELIN" a led zeppelin cover band

how can it not be organized, in my eyes? but I could be wrong

A group of older, widening gents ...

On the same note, my preliminary analysis of EJ for the now.

Why not! cheers fxp

The past week by four hour candles EURJPY
(and the current 15m)

Incl are the major Open Lines, and a weekly PP

Its gone high, crikey.
Enough?
Is the drive up over?
If new buyers come in they may get hammered south.
If sellers come in hard it might force the market’eers to drive to a new high to flush them.

Everyone is just sitting on their hands it seems, lazy Friday,
a cat & mouse game at present.


And oh yeah, meet the new boss.
Business as usual are the words to the G20 just an hour ago.
(but did anyone see if the index & middle fingers were crossed or not , just j/king Mr U )
https://www.forexfactory.com/news/12...-will-maintain

.

Wonder!! Will JPY ever see a positive (+) interest rate?

A question from Fxpider on Spzd's thread re the 127 and 162 fibs..and how he asks "the accuracy and effectiveness of 127/162 depend on the correct identification of 0 and 1 ( high and low of the structure). "

Absolutely correct and therein lies the difficulty we find using Fibs...Which swing high which low ??? Where do you draw them? And TimeTells is correct George
really opened my eyes to the effectiveness of the 127 level and Fibs in general... Fast fwd to Al Brooks and how he lays out in his books and videos the concept
of "Probabilities" of the opening range... He uses 18 5m bars...90 minutes 930am NY to 11am as the OR.... Hes an extremely smart man a highly detailed man
and great trader. He goes on to say how by the 18th bar we have a 90% probability the High or Low of the day has been set...

So thats where I came up with using a Time based box and methods built around that Box of time... I am not the only one and I truly believe that the first 60
minutes of the open is what drives the market,,,,Algo wise etc...

Now back to Al Brooks,,, the 18th bar gives a 90% prob the high or low of day is set ,, Thats from over 30 years of Data from Al trading the indices...
Anyways I was chatting with Moodybot one day about this 1 hr box and the probabilities....and he said why dont you Toss a fib up on the box and the rest is
history lol...I spent countless hours backtesting Fibs off a hard time based 0 and 1 High and low of a TIME BASED structure...something that NEVER changes
Something that can be hard coded so to speak with zero ambiguity...

I went thru years and years and years of intraday charts plotting every day by hand drawn fibs to the precise price of high and low of the opening box(range)
Data recorded was based on a 5m bar closed outside of that initial time based range BOX,,,,IF that condition is met THEN expansions were recorded for what
levels were hit which days each level was hit. what time these levels were hit.... Now Im old school... I started trading as a 13 or 14 yr old plotting daily charts
on graph paper by hand from the Daily newspaper quotes ...mmmm over 40 years ago now lol...

So all my backtesting is done manually scrolling the charts and recording everything in notebooks.... Call me silly but I believe that eyes/brain to hand physically writing onto paper has a much deeper affect on our learning...rather than programming software to backtest..then look at a spreadsheet result..

I believe is far far better to do it the hard way..where you can literally see each days chart,,years of them...anyways I digress as I normally do lol

What did I find,,,,well I found certain days are better than others in relation to the FIB targets,, but overall I found that once that 1hr box is broken by a 5m candle close outside of the box the 127 fib is hit a hair shy of 90% of the time. If price hits 127 then 161.8 is approx 70% and so on...

The SPX has been acting a little strange lately in the market has been flip flopping the 1 hr opening range but I expect it will smooth out at some point and get back
to a more normal behaviour...Thats my main asset I trade.

And although I always have a chart with the fibs of that 1 hra opening range up...I dont always use it for a target even with those high probabilities....
WHY?? well it depends where my entry is on relation to the BOX...I may close out at just the boxes range itself..Or a round number or time based or simply watching the market reverse on me..or a breach of the 8ema high low channel if im using that...or ive made enough $$....

But what that FIB does do...is give me confidence once that box breaks there's a high probability the market will move X to at least 127 and If I get a SLICE of that Im a happy camper...

The other thing about using FIBS on a set time everyday of that opening range is this...I can then set entry criteria off a fib level mostly 50% 61.8 and 78.6
The other KEY area is the OPEN ...

I will post up charts with the Fibs both expansion targets and retracement entries as well as the Major 50% lone of the opening range and the Opening price line of the OR..

But for now my eyes are toast once again after too much screen time and hitting the sack early its 945pm here now Westcoast Canada..

5 trades this morn done in 30 odd minutes..3 oil 2 gold,,,other excellent trades came up GOLD and SPX but did not take anymore..

Gold exited bottom of 1hr box,,,saw momentum on 1m so jumped back on and rode to round number exit shy of the 162 level.
Oil shorted the high but closed just shy of 61.8% retracement as my overall thesis was long and didnt want to be caught short and the market pump back up...
Turns out market flipped to downside but was happy with 63 odd pips on gold then another quick 123 pips on oil 3 trades .

Enough rambling...long day long rambling hopefully a coherent post lol... Will post up more charts tomorrow (Friday) and maybe on the weekend as to darn tired now...5 am comes quick...falling asleep here at the desk lol.

Cheers
Blue

Thank you for the detailed post.

When a PRO speaks, it sounds sweet to the ears.

indeed

Hi All,

My first trade after a small break.

Great post!!

Lines and levels and time. Marked up activity from the 1:30pm UK time, up to USA 2:30pm ( UK Time) open, Shown black line 2:30pm open.
Price reacts at levels and time?

What do you think chaps ?

Lost the post !!
Price shown at 1:30pm and 2:30pm ( Equities) UK time for sp500
Price reacts around time and levels ?
What you think chaps. Have I missed anything?

Don't often look at Gold but after what TT and Kevin mentioned about time and levels etc, I had a look and 1:30pm UK time sees a burst of activity prior to the USA
( 2:30pm UK time) Open.
Times to watch maybe

Everything is by time.

Cripes chaps......look at the 15 minute..... levels reacted to by price yet again ?

My wife agrees with that comment:
T it's time you got out of bed ! T it's time you went to the shops. T what time do you call this !

It's that time of the week.

USD/jpy through the roof

On the way