Trading Journal (only my take)

EU....update

PO3 short triggered, and is now T3

Nothing else has changed or needs managing at this point.

With a busier than normal news week ahead of us, there is bound to be increased volatility across all markets.

Brokers will of course be rubbing their hands with the prospect of oscillating market movement, which is always the killer for those traders looking for small pip targets.

No one is remotely savvy enough to take a position with any confidence when operating on such low timeframes and small stops. Brokers, with their tricks and sophisticated software will eat you alive in most cases, and particularly more so when there is a busy news schedule as mentioned.

All of us are effectively predictors of where we think the market is going. In the main, those predictions are obviously based on where the market currently lies within the bigger picture of overall direction and should therefore provide at least some context with which to make a decision of long, short or wait.

So, it seems madness to me, given what I've said, that anyone would even consider looking at small t/fs and small stops, and yet there are so many out there that seem to think that they are somehow able to both predict what the market is going to do in the next five minutes and are also able to outwit brokers and their super-powerful computers ....erm....I don't think so!

EU....update

A favourable and healthy downward market movement this morning.

T2....SL level adjusted to lock in more profit

T3....50% taken at +145 pips. SL and TP levels adjusted to ensure trade is safe.

Note...as I've outlined before, my TP levels are arbitrary, and are there in the event that extreme favourable market movement occurs in my absence.
My true/realistic profit targets (once I've taken 50%) are actually controlled by my SL levels which are periodically adjusted dependent on movement. I've elaborated my reasoning behind this previously.

EU....update

Probable retrace back up....how far who can say.
If some kind of retrace does occur, then I have PO4 short added at a what I think could be is a reasonable level to resume the downward move.

Stops and TP levels further adjusted on T2 and T3 to lock in more profit.

EU....update

T2 & T3 stops adjusted further down to now lock in 230 pips and 200 pips respectively. Both TP levels have also been adusted down accordingly.

PO4 still in place for the time being, but I may adjust that entry level or cancel at some point.

I think we could see another 5-10 or so days maybe before signs of any significant movement north, ie around about the 7th Oct in my estimation.

On that basis, I will continue to adjust my profit stops where possible until stopped out, at which point I should have extracted the maximum available pips that the market offers, and eliminates the possibility of any disappointment of closing winning positions too early.

EU....update

So, the week-end is fast approaching, and time to make final adjustments to my trades for this week.

All s/l and t/p levels have now been modified at this juncture. T2 locked in s/l level at +310 pips, and T3 locked in at +270. I've still made sure of reasonable breathing space for both trades.

PO4 with s/l and t/p levels also modified in case another short position can be triggered early next week.

I would guess it's been a fair week for quite a few traders out there. but I'd also guess that very few have played it the way that I have. Each to their own as they say!

EU....final update

As it turned out, both TP2 and TP3 were hit before the stop loss levels.

PO4 pending sell level still in place as before.

All in all, an excellent set of highly profitable orders was achieved. Everything went perfectly to plan and without any stress.

The whole process for trades T1, T2 and T3 over about 6 weeks was clearly documented along with labelled charts for easy viewing of levels.

It is obvious that no one took much notice which is fair enough.....no one is obliged to after all, but maybe one or two have taken away something, particularly in the trade management aspect.

I've no immediate plan to document further trades going forward, which is not that important actually, because it would simply be repeating the concept of what I've already illustrated in this batch of trades. Some trades, such as these, are simply more profitable than on other occasions....no one can know that in advance!

Looking back over the year, aside from trading, I think it's fair to say that it's been a very unusual period of time across the planet in most respects.

Will next year be different?....probably not, but hopefully no worse.

From a trading perspective, at least those with a sound strategy or two, the year would not have posed any more challenges than normal, and that is certainly true in my case. I have virtually returned exactly the same profit level that I did in 2021.

The first half of the year in my case was the most difficult, I have no real explanation why, but it's quite possible that the Russia/Ukraine conflict created a wholly unpredicatable few months, before markets became acclimatised to events , and hence a modicum of market consistency then followed.

I was unable to see where any major fault to my trading was occurring, bearing in mind, it has held me in good stead for quite a few years now.

Nevertheless, I decided to create another method, or rather a modified version of my existing 2 methods.

The second half of the year produced the goods.

So coincidence or not, I couldn't say, but at least I now have 3 methods to apply, albeit all are quite similar, due to my core approach concerning charts, price and time.

I have posted a fair few charts, and whilst they don't spell out my rationale, and incidentally I've mentioned my reasons why not in the past ie in short, why on earth would anyone want to reveal a soild method/approach to anyone else is beyond me. It makes no sense whatsoever for so many reasons, and yet we still see the serial posters doing their utmost to convince others that their method is the best. I don't get it, other than they crave attention etc etc.

I'm quite happy though to outline sensible trade management when in a trade, and I think I managed to show that aspect in live trade conditions a few months back.

I will likely carry out a similar exercise in the new year under live conditions again, and of course none of this bullshit 'after the event' posting where I'm concerned, clear charts, clear entries, clear stops, clear tps....all clearly labelled as before.

Enough for now

Any strategy could be a successful strategy in the long run, the problem for most is that they probably haven't properly checked, because their thinking is if it hasn't yielded profits in the first couple of weeks, then it is abandoned, and they try something else and so it goes on and on........

A long term approach using a daily t/f, by definition, means that real and dependable results can only be examined after a lengthy period of time to determine whether the particular approach produces a long term profitable outcome.

Some obvious conclusions are derived from long term positive results, such as knowns and unknowns. A simple example of a known in my case, and one that sets the tone for all other knowns and unknowns that then follow is that I can expect 30% - 40% profit for the year based on previous years results, applying the same strategy (more or less) throughout each year.

With a reasonable and repetitive strategy, over a period of time, then a list of relevant knowns can be quite easily created, bearing in mind of course that there will be a list of knowns for both positives and negatives, for example, I know that a % of my pending orders won't trigger, I know that a % will hit stop loss before going into any kind of profit.

Unknowns, for me, include not knowing how long before, triggering, or hitting stop loss, or hitting target.

My list of conscious knowns and unknowns is fairly equal in my case, and only serves the purpose of reinforcing or confirming my approach to trading.

Others may well do something similar, I don't know, but I can say that by answering along the lines that I've briefly laid out, to yourself honestly, will help keep reality in check and maintain focus on the most important objective....making a profit in the long run!

Trading as everyone knows is a speculative venture. Nothing is certain, with risk being at the centre, which is no different to everything we do in life in general, where we weigh up, as best we can, what the best decision is in any given situation from say deciding to overtake the car in front of you or whether to hit the enter button on a trade.

Either way, the risk is calculated before making the move, and I'd imagine pretty much everyone operates the same way.

With trading of course, there should be no risk to life (hopefully), only a financial risk.

Each individual will have or should have a process, irrespective of time frame to enter and exit a trade etc, and obviously, retail traders such as myself, cannot know what will happen in advance no matter what anybody else says. Sure, we have laptops to supposedly help with the charting and analysis etc, but the institutions have far greater technology and information available to them, and will know where the most hurt can be inflicted to traders, which emphasises the speculative nature of trading.

Anyway, with all that I've recently said, my first set of pending order shorts on GU attached. I'll post and update accordingly, unless there are any questions that require clarifying.

GU update

As can be seen, PO3 has triggered earlier today, and now becomes T3.

Whilst I think it's a pretty good entry level, as forecast, I've cautiously adjusted the SL for now, meaning that I still carry risk on this position.

As in my previous examples, I plan to take some profit during the course of this trade at an appropriate time when given the chance.

For now though, no further action required from me.

It should be borne in mind, that PO2 and/or PO1 may or may not also trigger, which would increase both risk and potential reward across the set. Anyway that's not the case right now, and I'll manage the trades in that event.

CPI data has injected some life into the markets today as expected.

PO1, PO2 and PO3 are now all triggered as per previous chart.

I need do nothing still, bearing in mind that I'm operating off the daily chart, and I will see how the land lies during the week.

We often see people poorly micro-managing their position when in a trade, and more often than not they arrive at the wrong decision by double doubting themselves.

Of course, managing a trade is obviously a vital factor for successful traders, but management should only be implemented when there is a favourable and significant enough market movement to warrant adjustment to either the stops or take profit levels.

I'll post an updated chart on my set later this week I'd guess, but for now nothing more to add.

GU update

I had adjusted T3 stop to what I thought was a realistic level.....the market thought otherwise and I was disappointingly stopped out.

T4 has since triggered another short, meaning 3 positions are once again in play for me.

Obviously, I trust my approach to trading, but as seen already, (and this happens to be a good example) doesn't mean every trade I take is successful. The overall long term outcome is what matters so far as I'm concerned over the year, so there's a long way to go yet!

I recently read a post where the poster has made the statement that traders should not be predicting what the market will do.

Personally, I completely disagree with that comment. Every decision made, is prediction or forecast based if you prefer, no matter what t/f you happen to use in trading, or indeed in anything else in life.

With regard to trading, the market has no bounds and is quite capable/likely of continuing or reversing at any given point in time. I would advise not to allow anybody to try to convince you otherwise.

The only thing that really matters imo, is that a person needs to be confident that they have an edge one way or the other. That edge will always revolve around some kind of prediction/forecast, irrespective of whether a trader uses a dozen indicators or a blank chart.

Others can ponder what I've said....they will arrive at the same conclusion I think!

GU update

A couple of uneventful weeks had gone by without any significant directional market movement.

Now, the market appears to be showing its hand just a little more, and this has now enabled me to take half of T4 off the table (+210), and move the remainder of TP4 target lower, whilst adjusting the associated SL4 lower also to lock in gauranteed profit on this position.

I have also adusted the stops on SL2 and SL3 to a lower level to reduce risk.

This whole set of trades are not yet safe, but some of the risk has now at least been realistically offset, and still provides me with a good chance to get all positions to the point of profitability.

Of course we are bound to see fairly dynamic market movement in the next day or two, but I have stuck to my guns with the view that this pair still has a fair way to fall yet.

Practical trade management is one of the big keys to any success in trading, and this aspect often seems to be overlooked, and I suspect it is linked to several things rather than just being patient!

GU update

Favourable NFP has allowed me to adjust stops and tp levels, and now everything is perfectly safe, and now becomes more of a question of how much profit can be extracted.

Ref above trades, my plan is to allow TP4 to be met, (+340 if hit) in the expectancy that some kind of retrace is quite likely to occur in the near future. I then intend to find a suitable add-on level short (probably Mon/Tues ish). I have an idea of a level in mind, but will wait til Monday before committing a PO, and will see how the land lies first.

The management of trades is a topic that I've mentioned a number of times in this thread. When I look around, most, if not all other threads, it becomes clear to me that others generally don't have much of a plan to cater for various scenarios that may play out, and this is very apparent to me whenever I see a trader who finds themselves in an advantageous position especially.

Traders must accept risk, it is part and parcel of trading in general, and irrespective of the trading strategy employed, the greatest risk is always at the point of entry because that is where and when the full weight of the stop loss exists (of course).

One or two will have noticed that I operate with PO's, and I may outline the reasoning for that another day, nevertheless, it will mostly be also seen that I place multiple PO's, usually 3 initially. This allows flexibility, but naturally includes potentially more risk.

Once I have committed myself to the PO levels, I need do no more, and simply wait for any of them to trigger.

In the event that any or all of the trades trigger, then risk exists. Thereafter, partial take profit on at least one of the PO's is applied, when appropriate, and then stop loss and TP modifications may follow.

The aspect of profit taking with stop loss and maybe TP adjustments is not scientific, but occurs instead when I think risk to the set of trades can be reasonably offset, whilst still maintainng a fair cushion.

Further down the line, in the event of the set maturing, and I find myself in clear profit without risk, then I will typically look for a potential add-on trade in an attempt to capitalise whilst in this advantageous position, and i will be looking to use my stop loss levels to act, in effect, also as my TP levels at this stage. In other words, I'd rather be ultimately stopped out, particularly when I have just 1 position remaning.

This is a brief but concise explanation of my personal approach in pretty much every trade I take. I know it doesn't explain my reason for entries etc, that's an individual think for traders, a great many of whom use different tools etc etc. The objective of this post is to simply outline practical trade management to anyone interested.

GU update

So, with my previous post in mind, I find my trades in that state of maturity that I mentioned.

NFP numbers were obviously kind, and the remainder of TP4 was actually stopped out for +345 (remember I spoke about my preference to being stopped out earlier).

Levels have now been adjusted, and PO5 has also been added (not triggered).

With management complete for now, there's nothing more I need do.

GU final update

PO5 triggered, but all trades now stopped out.

More than happy with overall outcome for a very profitable set of trades. Some are bound to say, yeah but what if etc etc....but remember, what ifs are are only clever after the event!

I apply my own process of entry, stops and tps, add-ons and of course trade management. All 5 aspects are equally important so far as I am concerned, and forms the trading process, which involves having a start and end point.

The criteria used is consistent for me, as I believe it should be for anyone else, and, once fully developed and proven via results, then anyone will have all that's needed to take their own trading to the next level.

I have no plans to document more trades for a while, mainly because my process is always the same, and I've already shown that quite a few times from start to finish, and therefore no need to keep repeating my approach....it's all there for anyone to see for themselves.

Until next time.....