Flying Dutchman

Each to their own I guess. Looked at Cable, my other go to, and price behaved in a channel ( to me that is) . After 1:30pm both Dax an Cable went on the move but that was outside my stint in front of the Pc.

Seems there are entries coming out of the First Hour Box of the sessions most days. US being the hardest to trade imo.

BRN and two 15 minute lows just under price -red lines.
Take a few off

That was a nice surprise - I am now on sidelines and wait for 3:30 hour box

22 pt bar. Quite large for out of the blue.

Stopped out last trade - now wait for box to complete

Then it went back down in desired direction without me
Still on sidelines

Looking to be another hurry up to go nowhere day.

Hi Turnip,

Just my Interpretation of Price (Order Flow)

When Price Fails to make a New High or New Low and we see a Break of Structure we could be seeing a Transition in the Order Flow at a Small Scale (1MIN)

We just got to decide if the M1 Average Swing will deliver a Profit

US 500 M1 Short Trade

I don't usually Trade this so we will see.........

US 500 M1 Observations

US 500 Short Trade Result +2 Pips

I'm out of this Short Trade Price is Failing to Close Lower

Welcome to 2023


We have now had the year open (ie new Monthly & Yearly levels set, hi-lo’s, pivs, structures etc etc)
Who sets them? Not us retail traders.

Then we had the FOMC minutes.
Then yesterday pre-NFP payrolls, new levels (and traps) set for retailers.

Today, NFP, of course new levels & new traps will be set. Happens each time.

Are they tradeable in the moment (possibly, with nimbleness).
BUT
Once the early new year dust has settled we can then play the ranges again or get in on the (15% they say lol) trendlike moves, which are really just Major Structure moves from one price area to another.


I did plenty of “thread” reading during this week (took a few trades, slow week, profitable week thankfully) and AGAIN what I have gleaned from everything that is written by so many traders is this.

Every method or usage of data that I see,
whether it is Vol, TA, PA, MAs, Data Massaging etc
they are all

YET ANOTHER INDICATOR

Nothing right OR wrong with indicators, they are what they are, and they are what we each use by choice as individuals.

The fact that there are so many ways to achieve what we achieve in trading, by so many folks doing it one way or the other, CONFIRMS again in my mind, almost conclusively, as I can read it in what people write in posts and HOW they write it,

and that is ….

The market is US vs US,

NOT
“us vs the market at large”.
(even if you cannot see that is happening)

How WE mentally USE any knowledge we already have or HOW we use our minds to gain NEW “comprehensions” (not perspectives) …. is how we can beat this in the end, how we can take profit each day from the market (no matter what size) by trading when AND where it is to our greater advantage.

All I can recommend wholeheartedly is DO NOT listen to any who might still tell you there is ONE TRADING METHODOLOGY that is best for everybody (often they will suggest it is THEIRS :wink).

Every method we utilise imo is an INDICATOR. Just ANOTHER indi in a glossary of indis.


How WE find AND use any (our) indi/s or methods is the long-term defining reveal for us.
(that took us OUR time to “get it”).

US vs US

We are both the strength and the weakness of everything we do (it is NOT our tools)

The ones that GET it,
the “us vs us” bit,
utilise their indis & methods in the very BEST way possible in the end, for them.

All just imho of course

Trade well, trade safe (NFP lol)

Pt2 lol

And this
US vs US

What does that even mean, to some.
For example.

Think of your own chart setups, your own templates, and whatever they incorporate within them.
I will assume for this exercise that a trader HAS HAD SUCCESSFUL TRADES using their OWN setup.
And I will further assume (for this exercise) that the winning trades were not FLUKES and were made successfully on the basis of your own templates or market comprehension at the time.

Okay.
At this point then DISCARD every past winning trade from your next study.
BUT IF
You believe your WINNING trades or the majority of them WERE flukes then probably, for long term sanity,
DISCARD your method. Can't survive on the hope of ongoing Flukes.

I could write all this lol as a computer program flow chart, ie IF trades work continue, if trades are flukes discard method etc etc.

And by a winning fluke I mean the market made a quick run, on news, or unannounced etc, and you were caught on the “right” side of the trade.
Great for the a/c but useless for a detailed and in depth assessment by YOU on the YOU who made that trade).


So a trader is now left with ONLY their past LOSING trades.

From these losing trades which are left
ie genuine losers, meaning you were wrong in either your assessment of direction at the time - maybe there was NO clear direction and you were just guessing to "get into” a trade - or you were right in your assessment but you entered the trade at the ‘wrong’ time - AND you will know this, if, after you closed a loser, that the market went back into your original direction for what ‘would’ have then become a winner (immediately or at a later time).

At this point I know it will be hard revisiting your losers, as all you want to do is put them out of your mind - but that is the #1 problem maybe
if you don’t recognise that trading this market is actually YOU vs YOU.

So back to your losers, no matter how hard mentally OR BORING it is to revisit those losing trades.

Now a trader can start looking at the variables around the ENTRY point of the losing trades.
(time of day by the clock, time of day by the Session/s, entering too late in the run at the high or low hoping the run would just continue, or even just the ‘wanting’ to trade and sometimes against what your template is actually telling you etc etc etc)

Only YOU can determine the variables around losses, as YOUR METHOD CAN’T
(or else you would NOT have made that trade at that time).

Do some ‘get it’ yet.
It is “you” in the market, as A VARIABLE,
As just another INDICATOR
And until you work out YOU in the market then NO method will allow you the peace of mind that any ongoing success can bring.

You will know YOU have achieved this point in time when
YOU DO NOT
Get over excited about any win
(ie heart pumping, throwing your arms in the air, cheering etc etc)
Get too despondent about any loss
(ie heart pumping - again lol -, banging your fist on the table, throwing coffee at your computer screen etc etc)

As then,
Its just trading. YOU vs YOU
With the Market as the medium that you do YOUR work in.

Everyone wants to know where & when to enter (and exit) a trade.
imho DON’T ASK, anyone, find it YOURself.

Trade safe, trade well and …. learn as much as you can about you ... as you originally did about your indi setups.

Excellent posts sir

Study your losses. Even though most of us post the correct things, it is the incorrect that we need to study in order to, attempt, reduction of any bad errors, habits, what nots.

Some losses are just the market being the market. And be thankful most of the manipulation is benign mostly to move price as opposed to screw everybody.

Credit to Pat Chiko (Thread of Shame):

https://www.forexfactory.com/thread/...2#post14258192

Not trading today but put up chart of dax on 5 min and one minute. Note how Frankfurt fell away leaving only a small short for 8am UK Open then nibbles from channel thereafter - scalps ( price ranging) AND US red news out today?
Next week should see matters perk up.

SP500 livelier than Dax this morning and more level friendly ( to me imho)

The SP500 likes levels. H/L/O/C levels. BRN, RN, QN. All levels.

Most of it was not tradeable due to the red data.

Left Bluesteeles box towards previous High