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Flying Dutchman

  • #4,241
  • Nov 21, 2022 3:57am Nov 21, 2022 3:57am
Quoting TimeTells
{quote} Hi FWR, I did find it a tough slog to get through. While I am always looking for something different or new, if you know what I mean, and I found what I wanted. While his Time Compression is not my Inflection lol, there are similarities, while his are always tops & bottoms of charts I guess, His "big swings eventually return to their starting point' gell'd with a lot of my own thinking. and "losing traders are trying to predict where the market is going, while winning traders are attempting to participate with what is happening",...
Simple statement yet so critical to having an edge in the market. It's certainly was essential to my ongoing struggle with the markets
every Saint has a past. Every Sinner has a Future
  • #4,242
  • Edited 4:46am Nov 21, 2022 4:09am | Edited 4:46am
Quoting bluesteele
Its easy to overcomplicate things.. human nature Heres a bunch of charts of TimeTells fav GJ... Charts are 5m... With 2hr box starting at London Exchange opening.... The key point of these charts is The LSE equity open...AND the corresponding Box.... How does price react to the open and to the box..... I can tell you that 30+yrs of US indices data gives great insight into how price moves for the entire day based on the first 60/90 mins,,,,with "THE ALGO" based off that60/90 mins AND TIME PATTERNS based off 5m chart The high/Low of...
Frankly speaking, if you take off all the crap off your screens and look at a naked chart,

all you really need to know is where the Market Opens are.

Especially the first 30 minutes.
It never gets easier, you just get better
  • #4,243
  • Nov 21, 2022 4:14am Nov 21, 2022 4:14am
Quoting bluesteele
Nothing cherry picked just a sampling of various scenarios surrounding the LSE open...Like anything with trading nothing always works...nothing is ever exactly the same...context and confluence greatly helps. Patience and the "right" chart experience in knowing what to look for... {image}{image}{image}{image}{image}{image}
My heads hurting again
every Saint has a past. Every Sinner has a Future
  • #4,244
  • Nov 21, 2022 5:26am Nov 21, 2022 5:26am
Quoting turnip15
{quote} My heads hurting again
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It never gets easier, you just get better
  • #4,245
  • Nov 21, 2022 5:58am Nov 21, 2022 5:58am
Quoting Shabs19
{quote} {image}
Great actor
every Saint has a past. Every Sinner has a Future
  • #4,246
  • Nov 21, 2022 6:02am Nov 21, 2022 6:02am
Quoting turnip15
{quote} Great actor
YOU CAN'T HANDLE THE TRUTH !!!!!!!

Classic
It never gets easier, you just get better
  • #4,247
  • Nov 21, 2022 6:10am Nov 21, 2022 6:10am
Quoting bluesteele
A couple of Sunday afternoon thoughts.... From what others have told me personally and from my own experience...helping others is part of our nature AND what several "Trader/Teachers/Mentors" have told me is that thru live teaching.. chats... articles/blogs.. websites... videos... charts/hindsight etc is that the teacher benefits more than the student,,,, think about that.... The "traders" that help and teach others benefit greatly by helping.... without getting philosophical(whilst I believe in that too ) those that spend countless hours helping...
Well said Bluesteele, i like helping when i have time.

A few reasons for it. 1-- enjoy getting to know traders from around the world, lets face it were all sitting on our own in some corner of the planet. 2-- No one helped me so it was all trial and loadsa error. Wasnt many of the a$$hole gurus back when i started wich was a benefit imo way too many course sellers these days. Helping others still reinforces to me what i know and how i trade. So you are right-- i get as much as the people i help. even now i have to be constantly learning, evolving and adapt to the markets on a dime.

I stopped the zooms in case Twee revokes me, i wasnt sure if its allowed or not. But probably done roundabout 30+hrs with guys from ff on zooms. I hope anyone who has been on zoom with me learnt something
  • #4,248
  • Nov 21, 2022 6:14am Nov 21, 2022 6:14am
Quoting T721
{quote} Well said Bluesteele, i like helping when i have time. A few reasons for it. 1-- enjoy getting to know traders from around the world, lets face it were all sitting on our own in some corner of the planet. 2-- No one helped me so it was all trial and loadsa error. Wasnt many of the a$$hole gurus back when i started wich was a benefit imo way too many course sellers these days. Helping others still reinforces to me what i know and how i trade. So you are right-- i get as much as the people i help. even now i have to be constantly learning,...
We never stop learning......................great motto
It never gets easier, you just get better
  • #4,249
  • Nov 21, 2022 6:41am Nov 21, 2022 6:41am
Quoting bluesteele
Its easy to overcomplicate things.. human nature Heres a bunch of charts of TimeTells fav GJ... Charts are 5m... With 2hr box starting at London Exchange opening.... The key point of these charts is The LSE equity open...AND the corresponding Box.... How does price react to the open and to the box..... I can tell you that 30+yrs of US indices data gives great insight into how price moves for the entire day based on the first 60/90 mins,,,,with "THE ALGO" based off that60/90 mins AND TIME PATTERNS based off 5m chart The high/Low of...
Sorry to be obtuse but could you clarify whether or not my charts have the necessary price action in the box please?
And whether I have drawn them correctly please?
I am trying to identify spots where high/low might be formed as prices progress in real time.
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every Saint has a past. Every Sinner has a Future
  • #4,250
  • Edited 8:51am Nov 21, 2022 7:31am | Edited 8:51am
Quoting turnip15
{quote} Sorry to be obtuse but could you clarify whether or not my charts have the necessary price action in the box please? And whether I have drawn them correctly please? I am trying to identify spots where high/low might be formed as prices progress in real time. {image} {image} {image}
Blue mentioned 2 hour box from UK Open, so should be 8.00 - 9.55 am candles

US Box looks like 1nour period between 14.30 - 15.25 candles

All GMT of course
It never gets easier, you just get better
  • #4,251
  • Nov 21, 2022 9:43am Nov 21, 2022 9:43am
Quoting turnip15
{quote} Sorry to be obtuse but could you clarify whether or not my charts have the necessary price action in the box please? And whether I have drawn them correctly please? I am trying to identify spots where high/low might be formed as prices progress in real time. {image} {image} {image}
No Cherry picking ....

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Master your Mind,,,Master the Market
  • #4,252
  • Nov 21, 2022 10:53am Nov 21, 2022 10:53am
Hi, does anyone know a good regulated broker that offers small spread/comission on NIKKEI225 ??
Im with IcMarkets, and the spread is a little high.
Thank you
  • #4,253
  • Nov 21, 2022 11:53am Nov 21, 2022 11:53am
Quoting bluesteele
{quote} No Cherry picking .... {image}{image}{image}
Big Bull Candle @8:00 am , classic misdirection.

Now you see me, Now you don't.
It never gets easier, you just get better
  • #4,254
  • Nov 21, 2022 12:54pm Nov 21, 2022 12:54pm
THE "YOU" IN THE ARENA

The credit belongs to the man who is actually in the arena; whose face is marred by dust and sweat and blood; who strives valiantly… who knows the great enthusiasms, the great devotions, and spends himself in a worthy cause; who, at best, knows the triumph of high achievement; and who, at the worst, if he fails, at least fails while daring greatly, so that
his place shall never be with those cold and timid souls who know neither victory nor defeat.

Twenty years from now you will be more disappointed by the things that you didn't do than by the ones you did do. So throw off the bowlines. Sail away from the safe harbour. Catch the trade winds in your sails. Explore. Dream. Discover.

Keep away from people who try to belittle your ambitions. Small people always do that, but the really great make you feel that you, too, can become great.

Confidence is every part of trading. If you're not convinced that you can win, you should never climb into the ring. Confidence comes from deliberate practise. Deliberate practise requires planning. Planning takes planning and energy. Energy comes from passion. Passion is when you know of no other thing to do but to do that thing. "I am in the right place."

Nothing in the world can take the place of persistence. Talent will not; nothing is more common than unsuccessful men with talent. Genius will not; unrewarded genius is almost a proverb. Education will not; the world is full of educated derelicts. Persistence and determination alone are omnipotent.

Trader Tom
Master your Mind,,,Master the Market
  • #4,255
  • Nov 21, 2022 2:05pm Nov 21, 2022 2:05pm
Quoting bluesteele
Confidence is every part of trading. If you're not convinced that you can win, you should never climb into the ring.
This is probably not only the case with trading. You can still lose money even if you're just oozing with confidence. A big ego doesn't change that, otherwise there wouldn't be so many poor people in the world if confidence were a guarantee of wealth.
  • #4,256
  • Nov 21, 2022 3:39pm Nov 21, 2022 3:39pm
Quoting bluesteele
THE "YOU" IN THE ARENA The credit belongs to the man who is actually in the arena; whose face is marred by dust and sweat and blood; who strives valiantly… who knows the great enthusiasms, the great devotions, and spends himself in a worthy cause; who, at best, knows the triumph of high achievement; and who, at the worst, if he fails, at least fails while daring greatly, so that his place shall never be with those cold and timid souls who know neither victory nor defeat. Twenty years from now you will be more disappointed by the things that you...
This Speech is more like a battle cry.........................

More about determination to succeed than just simply having confidence.

More to be not just an average trader but an exceptional one.

This of course, requires a lot of effort & hard graft putting in the hours of study, blood sweat & tears, testing, practising perfect practise,
constant repetition, recording results, analysing weaknesses, correcting bad habits, keeping control of risk and rigid mental discipline, following time tested rules / method of engaging markets.

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It never gets easier, you just get better
  • #4,257
  • Nov 21, 2022 7:03pm Nov 21, 2022 7:03pm
hello, my name Trang.
I learned a lot from everyone especially Mr.Bluesteele. thank you very much! I want to ask about the time of the boxes, I tried to count each candle. Is the time on mt4 3h-5h55? 10am-11h25 15h-16h?
Thank you very much!
  • #4,258
  • Nov 21, 2022 10:03pm Nov 21, 2022 10:03pm
Quoting turnip15
{quote} Sorry to be obtuse but could you clarify whether or not my charts have the necessary price action in the box please? And whether I have drawn them correctly please? I am trying to identify spots where high/low might be formed as prices progress in real time. {image} {image} {image}
Hey T ...as for the Dax....I have put the 200sma and 8ema channel on my chart... so we have some added context that I know you are familiar with...
AS per Lauras Roadmap we are below the 200 and thus looking for a short entry. There is a beauty of a pin hammer off the open and there has been many trades like this I have taken...although I dont like a 20+ pt stop..too much risk for me.. So thats a pass...

We have a chance the market will just continue down and maybe we just miss out...But the markets only trend one way off the open 20% of the days...So chances are
we will get an opportunity to get in......

And sure enough the highlighted yellow box is a prime area where you can get in with a more reasonable stop and higher probability trade.

What many don't talk about is that off the London open,,,NOT Frankie...the high and low of the day will be set off the first 60-90 mins...80-90% of the time.
Stacey Burke doesn't ever mention this.... ... London open and Ny open 60-90 min box.....Its backtested over literally decades
and gives these probabilities.... Dive a little into Al Brooks youtube videos trading Market opens.. He goes into the probabilities ... There are some now professing to reveal this as the never before seen "algo".. It is what algo(s) run off this initial box and as I eluded too in recent post the highest and lowest open close of the box. But it is not nothing new its just not talked about much..

The reason I am saying all of this is to add context to why I would trade this short Dax.... We are below the 200..the large 11:15 bullish bar comes within 5 pts of the open...The 11:20 bar has zero follow thru.. zero strength,, it tags the London open..Thats a sell on close in my books...Then we have later a retest again no follow thru no strength,,,, enter short...

Now take away the box...take away the London open line and all we have is the Roadmap and price below the 200...Where do we enter ??? Add the box...Add the Open line and now it becomes very clear Market is below the Daily open.. Below the London Open..Below the 200 and just tested the London Open with zero push thru...An extremely high prob setup....


Now we know with a 90% prob that the high or low of the day has been set..The box has closed...Price cant penetrate and close above the London open..so we short..next question where do we target ? well since the box closed and price cant close above the open we target the bottom of the box that is already set in stone..
ANd we can also target the FIB expansion of 127 as minimum as my studies show that the 127 fib is hit 90% of the time 5m bars open and close outside of the finished box..This is from many many years of backtesting box fib targets...

Some other thoughts are that I think traders are missing out not taking the equity opens into account..They play a HUGE factor... No not everyday...but it is a necessary tool a setup that works great.... Now add some Stacey Burke concepts...Add some ICT simple concepts and you have a something that can be really refined ... And as well the flip side is just simplifying and trading the box with the daily open inc.... Once box completes price generally goes one way..not always but more often than not...

hope this helps you T...

Cheers
Blue

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Master your Mind,,,Master the Market
  • #4,259
  • Edited Nov 22, 2022 12:31am Nov 21, 2022 11:03pm | Edited Nov 22, 2022 12:31am
Quoting bluesteele
{quote} Hey T ...as for the Dax....I have put the 200sma and 8ema channel on my chart... so we have some added context that I know you are familiar with... AS per Lauras Roadmap we are below the 200 and thus looking for a short entry. There is a beauty of a pin hammer off the open and there has been many trades like this I have taken...although I dont like a 20+ pt stop..too much risk for me.. So thats a pass... We have a chance the market will just continue down and maybe we just miss out...But the markets only trend one way off the open 20% of...
Hi Bluesteele, very well explained. I haven't done too much of back testing but couple of months ago i mentioned that i mostly place trades atleast after 30 or more minutes after London open if i see an opportunity. It just shows a clear picture (not always). And now reading your post tells me that i discovered something very useful after 5 odd years of staring at charts. I mark horizontal lines 30, 60, 90 and 120 minutes after London open. At times i place trades after Frankie open too but only when the probability is high. I will now also add 200 EMA to my chart as a confluence.
Trade Well All.
  • #4,260
  • Nov 22, 2022 1:05am Nov 22, 2022 1:05am
Quoting turnip15
{quote} Sorry to be obtuse but could you clarify whether or not my charts have the necessary price action in the box please? And whether I have drawn them correctly please? I am trying to identify spots where high/low might be formed as prices progress in real time. {image} {image} {image}
Hi T
One more then I have to go.... Heres your FTSE trade setup as per Lauras Roadmap and also a PFL off prev day low and RN 7350.00

This is where drilling down from the 5 to the 1 is helpful..and most likely why Laura recommended trading indices gold oil etc off the 1..

Me I will use the 1 5 and 15 all in conjunction. for various reasons...

Anyways to me IMO the safest entry is not the PFL in this situation entry off the 1m per Laura...price and 8 channel has crossed the 200 and more importantly its crossed the London open,,,
Nice bullish bar on the 5m then the 1m giving you the PA of the channel over the 200 with a nice low risk high reward entry.

Remember the box 60 or 90min... IMO gives the same 90% probability of setting the high or low of the session/day... Weve had a PFL and now price has reversed and carried on past the opens price..9/10 that low is set and price will goto 127 fib 90% of the time.

Hope this helps make things a little clearer day by day....1% better every day T

I will say T as Roadmap trader adding the Equity hour open whether London or NY and adding the Box and the probabilities of the highs and lows being set off the box really enhances Lauras method...Less trades but higher probability trades .. Its just a point of layering up the confluences and taking the context of that box and timings.... and then more advanced we get into further timings and PA related around Bonds closing and shakeouts pre bond close etc as I have eluded too,,,,, But thats not necessary unless one wants to trade more hours ...Trades off the box are really enough to make all one wants....

Practice...marking up the charts ..reviewing the charts for setups so you train your eye and your brain for what to watch for real time..and of course real time trading is a must whether demo or live..but eventually live with some skin in the game..It will all come with time my friend and by doing what your doing....posting charts ..asking questions etc..... We are all learning all the time ....

Cheers
Blue

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