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Flying Dutchman

  • #2,601
  • Aug 24, 2022 10:58am Aug 24, 2022 10:58am
Quoting turnip15
The Nasdaq which I didn't trade today but saw a couple of puzzles that intrigued me. Maybe some one can pitch in with a comment. I thought Daily trend was up? Edit: The "Median" was something I saw on ICT. Price goes in one direction but triggers trade on change of colour ie. Red to green for a long ? {image}
To me that is like a false break from that consolidation area to the 200 ma. It is not a trade if your day bias is long. The consolidation area off the 200 is where to look to go long.
Mark ... Everything you have been told is a LIE
  • #2,602
  • Aug 24, 2022 3:13pm Aug 24, 2022 3:13pm
Inserted Video
Mark ... Everything you have been told is a LIE
  • #2,603
  • Aug 24, 2022 4:40pm Aug 24, 2022 4:40pm
Quoting BWilliam
{quote} Ok, the answer is GY - below. There is no correct or wrong answer. We are all guessing. The point of this exercise is to record down your guess. Your guess is derived from what you see on the chart real time. Right now, market trades 10pips below - 161.659. Dol - 161.759, high 161.884, low 161.549, day range - 34pips, ADR20 - 179pips (19%) Update your guess as the trading day progresses. Make sure you update if you change your answer, real time. You can write a brief summary of your analysis - at any time, real time. I will respond to your...
Ok, that has proven to be what happened on GJ today so a great call from BW. I have to admit though, I'm not really following this line of macro analysis.

You say "there is no correct or wrong answer. We are all guessing".... hmm..I got the impression from previous posts you made, that you might be basing this directional bias on maths derived data.

I thought about your answer for a while and tried to make sense of it in my mind. Are you are encouraging us to apply the Crucial Point "BUY/SELL hemisphere" mindset and only trade in the appropriate direction in each hemisphere (sensible enough)? You questioned Whitesta on the 2 short GJ trades from ABOVE the DOL... is this where you'd say "mental strength" comes into play? most folk will see this as a flip to the Buy hemisphere when really it's more likely to be a liquidity grab to get big shorts? I do understand the need to sell above recent peaks and buy below recent dips.

The other thing is updating the bias during the trading day. If price is staying below DOL, then we can keep a "below" bias. What if price has started at DOL and went down pretty much straight by the ADR20 value of pips. Ok, we can say bias is still "below" DOL, we are well and truly in the "sell" hemisphere", but it could be risky to continue to hold a sell bias when we are already down buy the ADR? So, although we didn't do a full ADR down in GJ today, we bottomed at at 11:15 UK time and shorts wouldn't have been wise (in hindsight) after this point. You were asking Whitesta to update his bias during the day....and I was trying to think of mine. I think after breaking 161.215 on the upside path I was expecting price to rice after a pullback, BUT, I would not have been able to say with any confidence whether GJ would finish above or below DOL....it's still below DOL so I "guess" the odds still favour "below" until it crosses DOL? I am definitely confused by calling this DOL bias when it is contrary to current price direction....hmm...I need help LOL

Regards DM
  • #2,604
  • Edited 6:06pm Aug 24, 2022 4:50pm | Edited 6:06pm
Quoting BWilliam
{quote} About 161.37 level going into NY session, this is where market shows it's intent to trade towards dol - trading opportunity that pose the same question whether market will trade above or below dol.
Hi BWilliam,

GBP/JPY had a range of around 106 pips yesterday which is around 60% of its normal 20 day ADR. It was a down day when u look at the DOL. It traded mostly below it. It did not break the high or low of the previous day (Tuesday). I saw one trade out of a possible 3 as you showed. All were sell opportunities since with your help we had analyzed that price would trade mostly below the DOL. (i wasn't sure to be honest but with ur input had more confidence). The ADR helped as we had lots of room to move up or down. Down was more important due to our analysis. Just another input, if i was to buy within that day the price i was looking at was 160.792. Either at it or just below after rejection or PFL and pin bars. It was also the previous day low. Price really didn't go there though. It came close by 3 to 4 pips. Price actually broke 161 RN and early US session it turned with pin bars and moved higher back to the DOL to finish the day. As for patterns there was inverted head and shoulders, RN, Pin bars, etc before and around US open. Also a pullback near the 161.25 to 161.37 mark as u stated. That was a good region to get in if we wanted to Buy. The target was obviously DOL or WOL just before that. Again most of it hindsight but as i said the region i thought of a buy trade was just missed by 3 pips or so. I was not really going to take the trade cos i was more interested in learning and seeing what was happening and getting ur input. So as per ADR it wasn't a big moving day for this pair as the range was around 60%. For me i only saw one trade which i would have taken. The sell at London open. (Even that with ur help informing us that it was going to be a down day and price will probably trade below DOL). My profit would have been 45 pips give or take at a very good target on the left. So with ur guidance and golden nuggets i saw that ADR is very important, we have to open our eyes and mind to look for pullbacks once we are satisfied with the macro analysis of the day whether price will trade below or above DOL. The hardest one for me to analyze was if it was going to be a down day or price will be mostly below DOL was at the early Tokyo session. The price staying close to the DOL for sometime in the Tokyo session may have confused me to put a sell order that early. Great insights by u must have helped not just me but other traders too. Hope its just the start and looking forward for more inputs from you and other experienced traders.
PS sorry for late reply as it was quite late for us near US open time.
  • #2,605
  • Aug 24, 2022 6:44pm Aug 24, 2022 6:44pm
Just some great posting all above here on Andy's thread,

I love the reading folks (with my musical headphones on, of course )


The previous four (and more) pages approx of posts are so close now to the how, why, when (and where) of it all - in forex - the ultimate mind game.


A small offering chart pic here, but not really necessary considering all the prior written understandings recently on this thread

.
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: GBPJPYH1 what they do and all they can do.png Size: 18 KB
  • #2,606
  • Aug 24, 2022 7:06pm Aug 24, 2022 7:06pm
Quoting TimeTells
Just some great posting all above here on Andy's thread, I love the reading folks (with my musical headphones on, of course ) The previous four (and more) pages approx of posts are so close now to the how, why, when (and where) of it all - in forex - the ultimate mind game. A small offering chart pic here, but not really necessary considering all the prior written understandings recently on this thread . {image}
Welcome back Pete.
  • #2,607
  • Aug 24, 2022 7:44pm Aug 24, 2022 7:44pm
Quoting whitesta
Hi BWilliam, GBP/JPY had a range of around 106 pips yesterday which is around 60% of its normal 20 day ADR. It was a down day when u look at the DOL. It traded mostly below it.

The whole idea of the exercise is to give you an orientation of the current market you trade with dol as the marker point.

It did not break the high or low of the previous day (Tuesday). I saw one trade out of a possible 3 as you showed.

Like I wrote earlier, if you saw one trade its good enough to make you a successful...
Hi whitesta, you did a great job posting your real time macro analysis. The whole point of the exercise is to remove all the other "stuff" keep you focused and orientated on the dol. This is the first chapter of intraday trading.

The other aspect which I asked repeatedly is, what's your emotion how you felt as the market progressed through the day. In particular, those points on the chart where there's trade potential.

Looking back, how do you prepare yourself mentally for the same things that will happen again today?

The main lesson to learn is the mental strength aspect that's required in real time trading. It's not enough to get your macro analysis right, be discipline to spot trade opportunities. You have to be mentally strong to execute the trades when required. Mentally strong to ride the trade to target. This the downfall of many traders who are knowledgeable in macro analysis.

You have to recognise this "blindness" that affect all traders. The early Tokyo trade is one such example. Pullbacks is another example.

Perfect practise makes perfect. Continue to practise every trading day, jot down your macro analysis for review later in the day. Expertise comes from doing one kick 10,000 times, in the words of Bruce Lee. Cheers

Edit - I lost the comments I made on your post since it's a long post. I do it again. I divide it into smaller parts.
Know what you trade
  • #2,608
  • Aug 24, 2022 7:53pm Aug 24, 2022 7:53pm
Quoting whitesta
All were sell opportunities since with your help we had analyzed that price would trade mostly below the DOL. (i wasn't sure to be honest but with ur input had more confidence).
You have to do it on you own. You have to acquire the macro analysis knowledge and the mental strength to trust your analysis. Confidence comes from practise.
Know what you trade
  • #2,609
  • Aug 24, 2022 7:57pm Aug 24, 2022 7:57pm
Quoting whitesta
The ADR helped as we had lots of room to move up or down. Down was more important due to our analysis.
I have shown you the purpose of the ADR. It helps guide your expectation as the trading day progresses.
Know what you trade
  • #2,610
  • Aug 24, 2022 8:02pm Aug 24, 2022 8:02pm
Quoting whitesta
Just another input, if i was to buy within that day the price i was looking at was 160.792. Either at it or just below after rejection or PFL and pin bars. It was also the previous day low. Price really didn't go there though. It came close by 3 to 4 pips. Price actually broke 161 RN and early US session it turned with pin bars and moved higher back to the DOL to finish the day. As for patterns there was inverted head and shoulders, RN, Pin bars, etc before and around US open. Also a pullback near the 161.25 to 161.37 mark as u stated. That was...
Both you and Danger-Mouse saw this reversal trade opportunity which is good. For such a reversal trade you need to have a target. You are correct, dol or wol. You must be mentally prepared in real time to expect this reversal at any time during the trading day. You don't want to be rigid in your macro analysis to think that the market go one way only.

For reversal trades, you want to be extra prudent, take the trade AFTER the market show you. And trade only at the pullback.
Know what you trade
  • #2,611
  • Aug 24, 2022 8:10pm Aug 24, 2022 8:10pm
Quoting whitesta
That was a good region to get in if we wanted to Buy. The target was obviously DOL or WOL just before that. Again most of it hindsight but as i said the region i thought of a buy trade was just missed by 3 pips or so. I was not really going to take the trade.
Why not? Is there any difference between this trade and the rest? Or is it a case of "blindness"?
Know what you trade
  • #2,612
  • Aug 24, 2022 8:16pm Aug 24, 2022 8:16pm
Quoting whitesta
The hardest one for me to analyze was if it was going to be a down day or price will be mostly below DOL was at the early Tokyo session. The price staying close to the DOL for sometime in the Tokyo session may have confused me to put a sell order that early.
Yes this is the hardest, market traded on the opposite side of the dol that's against your macro analysis. It's counter-intuitive that cause this "blindness". Now you recognise it, take remedial action by repetitive practise. Many traders are "caught watching the ball" in real time and such trading opportunity pass them by.

Whitesta, that's one day walk through of intraday trading experience. Practise, practise, practise, that's how traders become successful. Remember to jot down your macro analysis throughout the trading for later review. Cheers
Know what you trade
  • #2,613
  • Aug 24, 2022 8:30pm Aug 24, 2022 8:30pm
Quoting Danger-Mouse
I have to admit though, I'm not really following this line of macro analysis. You say "there is no correct or wrong answer. We are all guessing".... hmm..I got the impression from previous posts you made, that you might be basing this directional bias on maths derived data. I thought about your answer for a while and tried to make sense of it in my mind. Are you are encouraging us to apply the Crucial Point "BUY/SELL hemisphere" mindset and only trade in the appropriate direction in each hemisphere (sensible enough)?
Hi Danger-Mouse, the whole point of the exercise with whitesta is to remove everything and keep him focused and orientated with the dol. This is chapter one of daytrading. Traders has to be mindful throughout the day whether market will trade above or below dol for orientation purpose. Whitesta is free to make his macro analysis whatever it is but it must be orientated with the dol.
Know what you trade
  • #2,614
  • Aug 24, 2022 8:35pm Aug 24, 2022 8:35pm
Quoting Danger-Mouse
You questioned Whitesta on the 2 short GJ trades from ABOVE the DOL... is this where you'd say "mental strength" comes into play? most folk will see this as a flip to the Buy hemisphere when really it's more likely to be a liquidity grab to get big shorts? I do understand the need to sell above recent peaks and buy below recent dips.
Correct. It's not the analysis, rather it's the "blindness" that traders experience. Due to the "opposite" orientation when market trade on the "opposite" side of our macro analysis.
Know what you trade
  • #2,615
  • Aug 24, 2022 8:40pm Aug 24, 2022 8:40pm
Quoting Danger-Mouse
The other thing is updating the bias during the trading day......You were asking Whitesta to update his bias during the day....
That's why I kept reminding whitesta to update his macro analysis to keep it real time. We don't want to be rigid with our analysis, but be prepared and nimble to change as the market show us.
Know what you trade
  • #2,616
  • Aug 24, 2022 8:46pm Aug 24, 2022 8:46pm
Quoting Danger-Mouse
. ...and I was trying to think of mine. I think after breaking 161.215 on the upside path I was expecting price to rice after a pullback, BUT, I would not have been able to say with any confidence whether GJ would finish above or below DOL....
First point, for reversal trades which is more risky you want to be extra prudent. You wait for market to show you this reversal intent. Enter on the pullback.

2nd point, you have to identify a target for this reversal. It may or may not be above dol.
Know what you trade
  • #2,617
  • Aug 24, 2022 8:49pm Aug 24, 2022 8:49pm
Quoting BWilliam
{quote} Why not? Is there any difference between this trade and the rest? Or is it a case of "blindness"?
Hi BWilliam, Thanks for the replies. Yes its about analyzing and trusting your analysis BUT also taking the trade when opportunities show up. I would have taken that buy trade when price made pins around the 161 RN. Its just i had decided to just watch, get ur input and learn for the day. So i may have taken 2 trades yesterday, one early London session and the other in US. Again its all about pulling the trigger and not being just on one side of the market. Also there was a chance for price to go back to DOL. Blindness somehow creeps in and we just don't see the setup when we are doing live sessions. Yes i agree that we have to be very careful when taking reversal trades. As u said pullbacks are the best zones.
  • #2,618
  • Aug 24, 2022 8:52pm Aug 24, 2022 8:52pm
Quoting Danger-Mouse
I think after breaking 161.215 on the upside path I was expecting price to rice after a pullback, BUT, I would not have been able to say with any confidence whether GJ would finish above or below DOL....it's still below DOL so I "guess" the odds still favour "below" until it crosses DOL? I am definitely confused by calling this DOL bias when it is contrary to current price direction....hmm...I need help LOL Regards DM
Calling a change in dol bias is an advance chapter of intraday trading. For yesterday's market it traded on one side only. For starters, it's best to find pairs that trade on one side, ie. the market bias is simple and certain that it's one sided. Dual sided market is a different kettle of fish.
Know what you trade
  • #2,619
  • Aug 24, 2022 8:53pm Aug 24, 2022 8:53pm
So today again GBP/JPY has been below the DOL. I had a chance to look at it awhile ago. Looks like a down day for now. I am just concentrating on DOL and ADR as asked by BWilliam. Just 29 pips range so far.
  • #2,620
  • Aug 24, 2022 8:57pm Aug 24, 2022 8:57pm
Quoting BWilliam
{quote} Calling a change in dol bias is an advance chapter of intraday trading. For yesterday's market it traded on one side only. For beginners, it's best to find pairs that trade on one side, ie. the market bias is simple and certain that it's one sided. Dual sided market is a different kettle of fish.
Yes when it fluctuates above and below the DOL then it gets hard to actually analyse.
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