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Flying Dutchman

  • #2,501
  • Aug 19, 2022 12:26am Aug 19, 2022 12:26am
Quoting BWilliam
{quote} Hi Andy, I should have left this forum. But I think I have to make this post for the sake of traders who want to succeed in this business. If volume was the magic data, financial institutions and hedge funds who have access to such data will naturally trump retail traders, there's no level playing field. The regulators will not and cannot allow such imbalance field - it's their job to ensure good governance. Furthermore, if you are an institutional trader there's no gain with this common available data. Here's the crux of the issue about...
Great to see you back BW.... there is always a seat at the top table for you.
Your post succinctly explains the lack of volume within Forex
It also shows that some self obsessed individuals really have no idea why they may/may not be successful and yet are advocating a particular way to trade as the only way.
The Algo has mystified the very best.... a phenomenal example of psychological programming.
  • #2,502
  • Aug 19, 2022 3:07am Aug 19, 2022 3:07am
Quoting bilal1947
GJ - H4 : with some annotations - trust your own analysis. {image}
i am collapsing the trades!
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"Exchange of hands"
  • #2,503
  • Aug 19, 2022 4:07am Aug 19, 2022 4:07am
Good morning people. I sometimes write on another thread ( Roadmap) and having seen posts by some on here by Bluesteel and others, I was invited to post some of my ideas/struggles on here.

I post a chart with some ideas taken from ICT and Laura's "Roadmap. I am trying to combine elements of both.

The problem is I don't really know what I am doing and I can confidently assert that I am no guru and cannot spell, "holy grail."

Levels interest me , along with "fair value gaps" and liquidity levels?

The posted chart is marked up in hindsight except for the right hand FVG which I am watching to see if it rises off a level ; is simply a lost trade; or I have got my theories mixed up.

Please feel free to comment since I am keen to learn from others.
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every Saint has a past. Every Sinner has a Future
  • #2,504
  • Aug 19, 2022 6:45am Aug 19, 2022 6:45am
Quoting turnip15
Good morning people. I sometimes write on another thread ( Roadmap) and having seen posts by some on here by Bluesteel and others, I was invited to post some of my ideas/struggles on here. I post a chart with some ideas taken from ICT and Laura's "Roadmap. I am trying to combine elements of both. The problem is I don't really know what I am doing and I can confidently assert that I am no guru and cannot spell, "holy grail." Levels interest me , along with "fair value gaps" and liquidity levels? The posted chart is marked up in hindsight except for...
Maybe I got lucky or I am learning something ?
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every Saint has a past. Every Sinner has a Future
  • #2,505
  • Aug 19, 2022 8:38am Aug 19, 2022 8:38am
Nasdaq just opened 2:30 UK time.
Too early to seek direction yet ?
Have marked in what I think are 15 minute and 1 minute FVGaps ?
So far I see price thrashing around at open as usual. Wait and see for now ?
Remember - I don't know quite what I am doing.
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every Saint has a past. Every Sinner has a Future
  • #2,506
  • Aug 19, 2022 8:44am Aug 19, 2022 8:44am
Quoting turnip15
Nasdaq just opened 2:30 UK time. Too early to seek direction yet ? Have marked in what I think are 15 minute and 1 minute FVGaps ? So far I see price thrashing around at open as usual. Wait and see for now ? Remember - I don't know quite what I am doing. {image}
What now - have I missed a FVG or other item of analysis or warning of a drop - and target?
Ignore my "Roadmap set up" ( Lauras thread) - I am just interested in those questions of FVG etc.
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every Saint has a past. Every Sinner has a Future
  • #2,507
  • Aug 19, 2022 8:46am Aug 19, 2022 8:46am
Quoting turnip15
Good morning people. I sometimes write on another thread ( Roadmap) and having seen posts by some on here by Bluesteel and others, I was invited to post some of my ideas/struggles on here. I post a chart with some ideas taken from ICT and Laura's "Roadmap. I am trying to combine elements of both. The problem is I don't really know what I am doing and I can confidently assert that I am no guru and cannot spell, "holy grail." Levels interest me , along with "fair value gaps" and liquidity levels? The posted chart is marked up in hindsight except...
you wont learn any of them, stick to one that is close to you.

open the instrument H4 chart and mark the FVG and see it in LTF will make more sense.
"Exchange of hands"
  • #2,508
  • Aug 19, 2022 8:50am Aug 19, 2022 8:50am
Quoting bilal1947
{quote} you wont learn any of them, stick to one that is close to you. open the instrument H4 chart and mark the FVG and see it in LTF will make more sense.
Thanks B. That's my homework for a while.
every Saint has a past. Every Sinner has a Future
  • #2,509
  • Aug 19, 2022 8:52am Aug 19, 2022 8:52am
Quoting turnip15
{quote} What now - have I missed a FVG or other item of analysis or warning of a drop - and target? Ignore my "Roadmap set up" ( Lauras thread) - I am just interested in those questions of FVG etc. {image}
It tested yesterday's low at the open then rejected it.

And the ICT method is good. Just takes some time to work out.
Mark ... Everything you have been told is a LIE
  • #2,510
  • Aug 19, 2022 8:57am Aug 19, 2022 8:57am
Quoting bilal1947
{quote} you wont learn any of them, stick to one that is close to you. open the instrument H4 chart and mark the FVG and see it in LTF will make more sense.
A bit like this B ?

I have probably missed something and not sure how this 5 min FVG will assist me. But I will watch it carefully.
Thanks for your comments. most appreciated
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every Saint has a past. Every Sinner has a Future
  • #2,511
  • Aug 19, 2022 9:01am Aug 19, 2022 9:01am
perhaps I should have put in the one minute FVGap ?
Hope I marked it correctly?
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every Saint has a past. Every Sinner has a Future
  • #2,512
  • Aug 19, 2022 9:05am Aug 19, 2022 9:05am
Oops ! Just seen the number of my posts. I am grateful for the replies and will go away for a while to digest any comments and helpful hints relating to my posts.
Apologies for writing so much on your thread.
have a good weekend all of you.
And thanks, once again, for your valued comments.
every Saint has a past. Every Sinner has a Future
  • #2,513
  • Aug 19, 2022 9:12am Aug 19, 2022 9:12am
Quoting turnip15
Oops ! Just seen the number of my posts. I am grateful for the replies and will go away for a while to digest any comments and helpful hints relating to my posts. Apologies for writing so much on your thread. have a good weekend all of you. And thanks, once again, for your valued comments.
Not an expert, but the FVG has to have context. You will find FVGs in many places where you would not take a trade. For me, not all entries are based on FVG. Was watching the same thing as you were at the open (on the MES ((micro e-mini))) and the charts were essentially the same. What I saw was a rejection of yesterday's low. (Did not take it as I do not trade the US open.)
Mark ... Everything you have been told is a LIE
  • #2,514
  • Aug 19, 2022 12:42pm Aug 19, 2022 12:42pm
Remember, focus on the dot on the left. (click on image)


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It appears as though the object on the right is moving diagonally, up to the right and then back down to the left. Right? Right?! Actually, it’s not. It’s moving up and down in a straight, vertical line.
See for yourself. Trace it with your finger.

This is a visual illusion. That alternating black-white patch inside the object suggests diagonal motion and confuses our senses. Like all misperceptions, it teaches us that our experience of reality is not perfect. Just like looking at the charts and how we can all see different things.

Cheers
Blue
Master your Mind,,,Master the Market
  • #2,515
  • Aug 19, 2022 2:14pm Aug 19, 2022 2:14pm
A good end to the week with a few shorts on Oil.
Some context of what I look for..

Always have the big picture in mind as price moves towards highs and lows of sessions days weeks and months.
They all matter. Although I dont use ADR indicators I visually gauge the daily ranges and current days range... But dont be fooled by price cant go more. It always can and ive been burnt badly thinking I know the market has no more...it can always have more..so be smart and use some sort of stop.

Always think "where is the $$ on the charts?".. whatever you want to call it i could care less if its buyside/sellside liquidity..smart money concepts.. buy stops sell stops....Stops... I just dont care about "proper terms" I care about.... "IS THERE A SETUP" ye or no...Am I a trader or wordsmith semantics basement keyboard jockey.
blah blah blah...

Ok got that off my chest lol...bit of keyboard jockey myself right now lol

OK back on track...Wheres the highs lows..wheres the money..Am I on the outside? Or if im on the inside am I trading with the order flow, the so called trend.
Has the market made a push to the high or low... 3 pushes..3 levels 3s

Pin bars/Engulfing candles confirmations... BRNS and TIMING...

Are you aware of candle timings and session timings.. When does liquidity volume wane in the NY session.. whens lunch ? What time on your chart does the 4hr bar change over...Different time frame traders enter the market on 4hr candles as an example..

Heres some charts for those interested... I manually closed trades as the week has been very good and no need to push things waiting for TP to hit or price reverse on me.

Have a great weekend
Blue

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Master your Mind,,,Master the Market
  • #2,516
  • Aug 21, 2022 2:23pm Aug 21, 2022 2:23pm
Hey Traders... Thought some of you might enjoy this good short read...

Cheers
Blue


Best Loser Wins is not a book about technical analysis.
You are not going to succeed in trading by learning more and more strategies.

A good trader, a profitable trader, is, surprisingly to most people, the person who handles losing best.

That mindset is one we can acquire, and that is what Best Loser Wins is all about – acquiring the right mindset to trade profitably....

Attached File(s)
File Type: pdf The Story Behind Best Loser Wins (2).pdf   152 KB | 1,565 downloads
Master your Mind,,,Master the Market
  • #2,517
  • Aug 21, 2022 3:56pm Aug 21, 2022 3:56pm
This pdf by Tom Hougaard was posted on Forex Factory a good while back :

Attached File(s)
File Type: pdf What I Wish Someone had Told Me 20 Years Ago.pdf   9.1 MB | 669 downloads
It never gets easier, you just get better
  • #2,518
  • Edited Aug 22, 2022 1:58am Aug 21, 2022 9:45pm | Edited Aug 22, 2022 1:58am
About losing trades, although mindset plays a key role we stiil need a more direct and pragmatic approach to this common problem that plagued all traders.

A large part of my research work was to address losing trades. How to improve the losers?

It will take a long explanation. So this is a simplified shortlist -

1. Follow a trade entry protocol after you get the trade signal. Check all the boxes.
2. Quantify the "distance" where a losing trade becomes a failed trade.
3. Since the fail distance is predetermined, place a stop slightly above this level at time of entry. There's no reason for more.
4. If you place a huge stop, you have done zero research.
5. Never place a stop because you can afford it.
6. Always include risk of ruin in your calculation.
7. Execute entry AFTER you see the "PA" that you saw in your research work. Perfect practise makes perfect.
8. Use a preset lot size, execute the trades with a trade manager.
9. Never take a second trade after the first trade fail. Fail trades do not create new trade signals. Accept this fail signal, look for something else.
10. If you refuse to accept fail signals ie. losing trades, you have a bigger problem than losing trades. You are essentially questioning your strategy - you don't trust your strategy. You are correct, junk it.
11. If you have to deal with losing trades, the problem is not those losing trades. You have a problem with your strategy.
12. When you see the chart you should be seeing winners - lots of winners. That's what your strategy tell you.
13. There's no reason to be afraid of the volatility during NY open or red news release - there's no reason for the fear. Do your quantified research at these specific times. That's the solution.
14. Never accept a losing trade without questioning why. Question drawdowns as well. They are signalling problems with your strategy. Both are the best teachers.
15. Do proper quantified research into every aspect of trading substantiated with statistical evidence. Mindset becomes not relevant. If mindset remains a problem your strategy is not good enough or incomplete.
16. If you don't know what most likely will happen next after you pull the trigger, you're a blind sitting duck.
17. If you don't believe you can know what's likely to happen next, you're in the wrong business. Chess, fishing and gardening are better alternatives.
18. Remind yourself, only 1% make it. That's the high bar you set yourself. If you want it, go get it like a tiger. Don't whine - whining is for losers, that's the "milk sucking" signal.

The best loser is the trader who see winners, avoid losers. By his research work. Self explanatory.

The solution is research. Not mindset - blind remains blind no matter the mindset.

Cheers
Know what you trade
  • #2,519
  • Aug 22, 2022 6:31am Aug 22, 2022 6:31am
Quoting bilal1947
{quote} you wont learn any of them, stick to one that is close to you. open the instrument H4 chart and mark the FVG and see it in LTF will make more sense.
Something along these lines ?
Four hour chart with 4 hour low going back to 14th July - yellowish banded area bottom of chart
Blue shaded area is a four hour FVG
Small blue rectangle with two down arrows is the 5 minute ( used to trigger trades) FVG
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every Saint has a past. Every Sinner has a Future
  • #2,520
  • Aug 22, 2022 7:01am Aug 22, 2022 7:01am
Quoting turnip15
{quote} Something along these lines ? Four hour chart with 4 hour low going back to 14th July - yellowish banded area bottom of chart Blue shaded area is a four hour FVG Small blue rectangle with two down arrows is the 5 minute ( used to trigger trades) FVG {image}
And the dax from 15 minute time frame down ?
1 minute bar to trigger short trade
Just thoughts on how I could use ideas here.
Comments welcome
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every Saint has a past. Every Sinner has a Future
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