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Flying Dutchman

  • #2,061
  • Jul 5, 2022 5:50am Jul 5, 2022 5:50am
Quoting BWilliam
{quote} Fellow traders, there are only 2 possible targets(50% odds) that're lots of pips apart, yet we can't figure out which target. Have you figured why not ? Be aware of this, then you might wake up to how disconnected you are from trading this market. Because someone told you this and that on FF..... How many trading days you even think about the next 50pips target that sit on your chart? Zero ??? Oh yes, you were waiting for the signal from your magic indicators and confirmation whatever that is, that's the bs that everyone learn. The most...
Bwilliam
People is not complaining about you because you are rude or anything like that, is like you seem to have more knowledge than the rest or so it seems, is like you have the secret sauce for the spaghetti . And when you talk it seems like you are hiding it nothing else

Please don't go and tell use how to pick direction to get to the secret sauce
  • #2,062
  • Jul 5, 2022 5:57am Jul 5, 2022 5:57am
Market shows itself, if we can observe without prejudice OR bias


I missed all the moves below Day Open after London + 1½hrs, day was over (and with soft GBP news forthcoming)

.
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  • #2,063
  • Edited 7:16am Jul 5, 2022 5:59am | Edited 7:16am
Quoting Frag8383
Bwilliam People is not complaining about you because you are rude or anything like that, is like you seem to have more knowledge than the rest or so it seems, is like you have the secret sauce for the spaghetti . And when you talk it seems like you are hiding it nothing else Please don't go and tell use how to pick direction to get to the secret sauce
My secret sauce is I don't listen to other peoples bs, and don't think stupid.

I have advantage because I don't read FF, babypips to learn support resistance, supply demand, orderbook, fibs, pivot, price action, confluence, smart money, dumb money, volume delta..... and the whole host of things on FF. I don't know what they mean until I read FF. Omg wtf are all these fancy shit. I read FF for entertainment, gossips and fights is the best - the best drama is the fight between 2 crackpot in a faceoff trade challenge.

People, I don't know anything more than you.
But I surely do know that market moved hundred pips and more and many traders are waiting for signal and confirmation. Oh what a shitty market today when the market moved hundred pips and more. I'm waiting for 167 to sell or waiting for 161.5 to buy. Sound familiar ?

edit - what magic sauce do the trader need to know that if price rose even higher above the Asia market 120pips push is telling a serious valuation statement ? What else can price do the rest of the day if not rise further ? Oh yes, all the yen cross fell in tandem again, even larger than the early push(2nd chance if you missed the first). 320pips move passed by today. This's not bs.
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Know what you trade
  • #2,064
  • Jul 5, 2022 8:03am Jul 5, 2022 8:03am
Quoting TimeTells
{So I went to ryu’s thread and read his reply. And to me what he wrote appeared as some childish nonsense. And fairly typical I might add of ryu’s social behaviour on this (and probably other) threads .
You have posted chart with MARKS that was NOT possible to make in the past because the data used to make "decision" was taken from the future.

I call it scam and cheating.

You call it childish nonsense?

I think childish nonsense is drawing lines on the chart and thinking that price will hit it because you have drawn it.
Childish nonsense is to think that previous high and low are support and resistance.
Childish nonsense is to think that there are support and resistance ever (with no data analysis)
Childish nonsense is when you ignore volume data and choose magic in general not math.
Childish nonsense is thinking that you can outperform huge money, smartest people and fastest algos using drawing tools.

I asked you many times: stop calling me in your thread. Keep drawing your lines and dreaming. You are deceiving not only many people, but above all yourself.
Observer effect
  • #2,065
  • Jul 5, 2022 8:28am Jul 5, 2022 8:28am
Quoting ryuryu
{quote} You have posted chart with MARKS that was NOT possible to make in the past because the data used to make "decision" was taken from the future. I call it scam and cheating. You call it childish nonsense? I think childish nonsense is drawing lines on the chart and thinking that price will hit it because you have drawn it. Childish nonsense is to think that previous high and low are support and resistance. Childish nonsense is to think that there are support and resistance ever (with no data analysis) Childish nonsense is when you ignore volume...
Having already published your results for July, can we see your results for August?

https://www.forexfactory.com/thread/...5#post14051625
  • #2,066
  • Edited 9:38am Jul 5, 2022 8:53am | Edited 9:38am
Quoting ryuryu
Childish nonsense is to think that previous high and low are support and resistance.
Hi ryuryu, I don't want to get into a quarrel. But I have to point out that previous high and low, open lines are targets is not childish nonsense.

It's ok that we disagree. I welcome your opinion and you are free to express it. no problem.
On here, we're open minded to accept other people's opinion.

Another thing to point out is that this entire FF forum draws some sort of line which is not based on real volume data. You have issue with this entire forum and many other similar forums, not just this thread.
I happen to declare similar type issue too using strong words with my posts today.

I think members on this thread mind our own business.
I can share my opinion but I can't change the world.
Say it and move on.

We're fellow traders. Lets not fight each other over different opinion.
Regular members posting on this thread also hold different opinions that they express freely.

Believe me, I do read your opinion and give it a serious thought.
You'll be surprise I agree with a lot of what you wrote.
Just that I'm silent about it.

Cheers.
Know what you trade
  • #2,067
  • Jul 5, 2022 9:44am Jul 5, 2022 9:44am
Quoting ryuryu
Childish nonsense is thinking that you can outperform huge money, smartest people and fastest algos using drawing tools.
Tbh I wanted to address this matter - how does average Joe retail traders compete with well funded, smartest of the lot institutional traders backed with all the resources. I chose not to broach this topic. So I remain silent. It's definitely something that's important to think about.
Know what you trade
  • #2,068
  • Edited 11:39am Jul 5, 2022 10:24am | Edited 11:39am
Just want to point out E$ is 245pips away from parity, that's 2 decades low - huge statement.

And US30 update. Weird isn't it?
https://www.forexfactory.com/thread/...2#post14044672

Last time I post this type of lines chart on FF.

What do these lines mean in terms of valuation ?
(Took me a long time to learn how to flip the prata. I didn't have a BWilliam to show it to me.)

If you're interested, read this Moodybot thread 1 year ago,
https://www.forexfactory.com/thread/...9#post13451459
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Know what you trade
  • #2,069
  • Jul 5, 2022 10:25am Jul 5, 2022 10:25am
Quoting TimeTells
Market shows itself, if we can observe without prejudice OR bias I missed all the moves below Day Open after London + 1½hrs, day was over (and with soft GBP news forthcoming) . {image}
ok very nice chart,

so the targets George targets, Previous Day, week, month high, low are all targets, that is clear.

The direction is market structure so that is how you decide which target is the market going to attack, this is also clear.

But what about the open? is the open and previous days open targets?

or

is the open what defines the trend? above the open only go long with market structure, below the open go short with market structure.

or is the open what B.william refers to as value, above it is value for short and you look for LH and below it is value for longs and you look for HL below it.

sorry for so many questions but I'm trying to understand. I trade market structure but I miss context and that is why I follow this thread and ask

thanks
Kind regards
  • #2,070
  • Jul 5, 2022 10:47am Jul 5, 2022 10:47am
EU made new LL Now it's time UP UP UP
Cheers
Search the answer from different places
AUDUSD next target
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  • #2,071
  • Jul 5, 2022 1:57pm Jul 5, 2022 1:57pm
Quoting moodybot
{quote} Having already published your results for July, can we see your results for August? https://www.forexfactory.com/thread/...5#post14051625
That is hilarious,

Its the new thing in trading, the forecasting statement
  • #2,072
  • Edited 7:14pm Jul 5, 2022 5:49pm | Edited 7:14pm
Quoting Frag8383
sorry for so many questions but I'm trying to understand. I trade market structure but I miss context and that is why I follow this thread and ask thanks Kind regards
Hi Fragg, allow me to give you and everyone a tip how to learn market structure.

If you scalp 50 trades on the 1m chart, then practise make 1 trade a day on the 15m chart. And practise make 1 trade a week on the h1 chart.

If you're a intraday swing trader, then practise scalp 50 trades on the 1m chart. And practise make 1 trade a week on the h1 chart.

If you're a intraweek swing trader, then practise scalp 50 trades on the 1m chart. And practise make 1 trade a day on the m15 chart.

The best way to learn market structure. You stop being a one eyed jack in this market. Cheers

Pps I've written everything I want to write on FF. Time to step back from forum.

I leave you with this post from a member I have full respect.
Quoting FXEZ
..... The better question is what is the true nature of price series - and what are the exploitable characteristics of the underlying nature?.....




... . (as an aside, Can future transactions be predicted before they happen? This is the stuff that trading edges are built from - of particular note might be the study of order flow trading.)
Know what you trade
  • #2,073
  • Jul 5, 2022 6:52pm Jul 5, 2022 6:52pm
Quoting ryuryu
{quote}
You have posted chart with MARKS that was NOT possible to make in the past
because the data used to make "decision" was taken from the future.

Hi ryu

Your exam-test results have come back, but the results are not looking so good I am sorry to say .
Please ask good questions, we can all help you I am certain.


(This Feedback provided free of charge of course).

1. WRONG - the data used to make "decision" was taken from the future.

All data used is from the past.
Do you mean Prediction maybe ?
(But then is still wrong, I do not make predictions, I mainly work on probability)


2. WRONG - thinking that price will hit it because you have drawn it.

This is not the function of the Targets sorry (ie Swing Points)
All swing targets are clearly formed in the past (not the future) as either an HL or LH
They then serve two purposes, for my own use I mean
i) initially as they form (always in the past of course) they serve as directional in purpose
ie trade towards the target is often best, rather than immediate reversal away from target (ie reversal trading)
ii) they are the future targets that price WILL reach on the next price run back (which one first is our trader skill, or our trader luck )


3. WRONG - there are support and resistance ever (with no data analysis)

You must have the Wrong Trader here ryu. I am not S/R, S/D or Stop&Reverse trader
https://www.forexfactory.com/thread/...4#post14052564
me:
“I still cannot see how a trader can just assume that any target is a stop & reverse signal”


4. WRONG - ignore volume data and choose magic in general not math

We have all seen how you trade Delta & Volume ryu and well done sir, but that is not the issue,
YOU still think in the small-minded way that delta & vol is the ONLY way to trade
This is just the LIMITATION of your mind imo, I am sorry to say.

For example, on the chart from this post below, can vol data SHOW me, but more importanly, explain these moves towards the targets.

And if volume cannot explain this move, where market mechanics can (to me), then I am sorry but volume is just not a pre-requisite for my trading,
in fact it is not necessary for me at all (but I am happy for you to use it on the crypto)

This is a CHART post from 2 months ago when I try to help you before. No VOL needed. As vol does NOT explain the precision market moves.
https://www.forexfactory.com/thread/...7#post13994737


4. WRONG - thinking that you can outperform huge money, smartest people and fastest algos using tools.

This is your worst post imho sorry & Very Wrong Thinking by you ryu.
Why do you think in terms of outperform?. Your mind is bounded. A trader will think best in terms of personal profit (not WHO else they are outperforming).
(So, very Wrong thinking. ie to outperform huge money?, smartest people?, fastest algos?
This is not trading your knowledge, this is trading your fear)


You can be saved I reckon ryu, if you wish to put in the time & effort.
Ask for guidance, many will help you.

cheers
Pete
  • #2,074
  • Jul 5, 2022 7:14pm Jul 5, 2022 7:14pm
Quoting Frag8383
{quote}
ok very nice chart, so the targets George targets, Previous Day, week, month high, low are all targets, that is clear. The direction is market structure so that is how you decide which target is the market going to attack, this is also clear. But what about the open? is the open and previous days open targets? or is the open what defines the trend? above the open only go long with market structure, below the open go short with market structure. or is the open what B.william refers to as value, above it is value for short and you look...

Hi Frag,

Cheers mate, but charts is not only for nice lol (but thank you).


“is the open what defines the trend? above the open only go long with market structure”

For me, no, well not specifically.

The Day Open is definately one clue for me. But you will observe there are days where the market runs away from Day Open and then returns
(often in another session) right BACK to Day Open.

I try not to limit my thinking with trading as to any bias and direction, OR include trend in my thinking.

Trend is very tricky word, I always ask people what TIMEFRAME they talk about with trend. And there is no definite tradeable answer imo. Trend, as I understand it, is current directional momentum that can END as quickly as it started. So I don’t use these ideas for trading. I trade in the Moment is the best I can explain.

I must say I DO miss many of the big runs of the market where more experienced traders than me get the full meat of the biggest run. I compensate in my small pocket of market-chart understanding by using what Kev/Blue and Andy/Moody call scaling in on a winning trade by adding to winning positions in the flow which can allow me to get more pips inside the direction I trade (but not always, lol).


Though I sense everyone still wishes to know WHICH direction is the ONE to choose.

Well I just choose the direction that the market is currently in (but I don’t get in at the very start)
If the market is currently moving away from the Day Open then I will trade that way initially.
If the market is moving back towards the Day Open I will trade that way.


And I sense everyone still wishes to know “which” target the market will reach for NEXT.

Well myself I usually just trade to the mini-targets that are closest in front of me in the direction of current price movement (BUT under 5-6 pips no point).
8pips to 15 pips out to 20 pips TARGETS per trade is fine for me, AND it is often a different TP per trade as all targets are not equidistant from each other.

I can finesse later in that when I see bunches of targets grouped closely together (George’s Herds) they are good shots I feel, and even better when targets are spaced some distance apart where the pip run to them is greater and the TP higher. There is not one set happening for each trade I take, ie any two are often not the same trade type or TP level.


I am still at the learning stage where I like to book my profit in my a/c first
(not out of Fear lol, just fiscal practicality & my ongoing mental training to be a trade winner).

I can then come back in later to see if I can extract more TP. For example if I was hungry for MORE TP I could trade New York where volatility is greater,
but I prefer to sleep from 11pm which is the middle of my NY sadly.


But this does not bother me (anymore) if the current pip run finishes as I also have No Fear Of Missing Out (N-FOMO)
as I believe in my heart the market will provide a NEW opportunity & soon in the future.

Mine is not high-level advanced trading, it is just practical for ME, so I just trade for some profit each & every day, each & every session etc which helps me to build a winning mentality.

BUT it did NOT help me to build a “take as MUCH profit as you can from the market” mentality which I have still yet to advance towards.
My lessons & learning are ongoing.


“or is the open what B.william refers to as value”
Jason is a more seasoned trader than I am, having been in the industry much, much longer, where I am a newcomer from a horse-racing background who is trying to find out just what the heck is going on in these markets (and I will or have lol).

I listen to everything each trader says, and certainly I listen to Jason, but as Jason & I BOTH know we do not trade the same way. I trade to my current preferences is all, and I would ask you Frag to continue asking BW genuine questions as he will give you honest answers from his OWN trading perspective.


One last thing I will say. I read this about Galileo years ago. G was also quoted by Einstein who was in agreeance. And it coagulated in my mind also from the book Zen & Motorcycle Maintenance lol, and that is simply …

The Best Knowledge You Can Get is NOT directly from Logical Thinking (which IS important) but from

EXPERIENCE.

Maybe use a Trade Simulator rather than a Demo a/c to fast-track your experimenting and EXPERIENCE with the market at NO cost.


Quote:
Pure logical thinking cannot yield us any knowledge of the empirical world;
all knowledge of reality starts from EXPERIENCE and ends in it.
https://en.m.wikibooks.org/wiki/Galileo%27s_Science

Experiment my friends and good fortunes.
Pete
  • #2,075
  • Jul 5, 2022 7:31pm Jul 5, 2022 7:31pm
Hi great traders,

if you have free time, please explain this simple questions ...

*) Daily Open is really important ? my broker use GMT +2 time. as far as i know, GMT is the London time (or may be i am wrong about it ?). is it worth to make my chart daily open start at GMT time (instead of gmt +2) ?? if yes, is it possible to change my broker's chart, so the daily open will be at London time instead of gmt +2 and how to do it ??

*) some people always talk about the importance of Gaussian ... and some one says that this can be used to predict the Direction ...but i still do not understand it until now.... the direction here meanst Trend or what ?? is this gaussian has some thing todo with Probability calculation ?? and is this calculation based on some Trading Zones (TZ) as target like Sup ply and demand zones , support resistance zones ... or both ???

*) some traders always talk about the High, Low of a candle at the target for his trading rule.... how about the Close (and maybe also Open price ? .... or also all of them, and ohlc are included ?? ) .... i think we can use the similar logic to calculate it to predict the direction of the market move ... hmm ... may be i must split them in to 2 blocks with different calculation logic , expecially the Close/ Open price as a block to get bull/bear state target ?? and high/low block for other target ??

*) about the Time ... can we assume that the prediction of Next Candle (may be big TF candles like H4, H1, or even D1 ) as the time for entry ? i mean, it is not only based on Asia, London, NY market open (market sessions) as the definition of time, but the candle it self can be used as the right definition of Time ???

thanks a lot in advance. Wishing you all a very nice days a head ...
  • #2,076
  • Edited 8:00pm Jul 5, 2022 7:49pm | Edited 8:00pm
Quoting Frag8383
ok very nice chart, so the targets George targets, Previous Day, week, month high, low are all targets, that is clear. The direction is market structure so that is how you decide which target is the market going to attack, this is also clear. But what about the open? is the open and previous days open targets? or is the open what defines the trend? above the open only go long with market structure, below the open go short with market structure. or is the open what B.william refers to as value, above it is value for short and you look for...
Hi Fragg a direct answer to your questions.

Why open line is important?

When market trade say 100pips above open line, then market is making a statement strengthening the currency. When market trade 100pips below open line, market is making a statement devaluing the currency.

Open lines are market's markers of the value of the currency. That's why it's important.

If we use dol, it's a marker for the entire trading day that help us to know if market is trading in a strengthening or weakening currency.

If the market decides to strengthen the currency it must trade above the Open line vv. Market indicates that it has stopped strengthening by not trading above the Open line vv. This might sound moot but as simple as it may be, trade long above the Open line vv make sense.

If market fail to trade above the Open line then it's making a statement that the strength of the currency does not go beyond that level vv.

Targets mark the boundary of value, open line mark the mean.

Which target is the number 1 question.

Let's assume the adr is 100pips, 66% is 66pips. Use a distance marker to mark this level from dol. Look for targets, mark them. That's your intraday targets.

Let's assume the awr is 200pips, 66% is 132pips. Use a distance marker to mark this level from wol. Look for targets, mark them.

If you mark your charts this way you have a clean chart with few target markings.

Question - how do you mark your chart if you were a scalper trading the 1m chart?

I leave you to think about what I wrote. Read them in toto.

Cheers
Know what you trade
  • #2,077
  • Jul 5, 2022 8:07pm Jul 5, 2022 8:07pm
Quoting BWilliam
{quote} I've written everything I want to write on FF.
I wish you'd hang around to continue posting. You and I could have a good discussion about structure sometime. Trade well, BWilliam.
  • #2,078
  • Jul 5, 2022 10:03pm Jul 5, 2022 10:03pm
Quoting ryuryu
{quote} You have posted chart with MARKS that was NOT possible to make in the past because the data used to make "decision" was taken from the future. I call it scam and cheating. You call it childish nonsense? I think childish nonsense is drawing lines on the chart and thinking that price will hit it because you have drawn it. Childish nonsense is to think that previous high and low are support and resistance. Childish nonsense is to think that there are support and resistance ever (with no data analysis) Childish nonsense is when you ignore volume...

Clueless...absolutely clueless
Master your Mind,,,Master the Market
  • #2,079
  • Edited 11:12pm Jul 5, 2022 10:47pm | Edited 11:12pm
Quoting Frag8383
{quote}
But what about the open? is the open and previous days open targets?
or is the open what defines the trend?
above the open only go long with market structure, below the open go short with market structure.

Hi Frag,

Here is a quick chart of GBPJPY in the Asia Session today.

Today the Day Open was a target, yes, for sure. Another day maybe not a return target.

The Day Open Line in Asia may also have vastly different behaviour signals to what happens at London etc.

There is no one way this market flows, sometimes holds range for 3-5 days (like a week ago), and then next day grinds to a new structural level.

We gain experience the more times we see the moves (which is why I prefer to let market show ME the way lol, others can predict this much better than me).


((edit: lol I did not trade those triangles, only there to show what was available to trade and/or what DD if a single direction only was chosen by trader))

.
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  • #2,080
  • Jul 5, 2022 11:11pm Jul 5, 2022 11:11pm
Quoting BWilliam
{quote} Hi Fragg a direct answer to your questions. Why open line is important? When market trade say 100pips above open line, then market is making a statement strengthening the currency. When market trade 100pips below open line, market is making a statement devaluing the currency. Open lines are market's markers of the value of the currency. That's why it's important. If we use dol, it's a marker for the entire trading day that help us to know if market is trading in a strengthening or weakening currency. If the market decides to strengthen the...
Good Morning Bwillam
1) What does VV mean
2) Do DOL act as target?
3) In case of gap opening should we consider previous day closing also
4) Once again i request to write your post in laymen language it would be useful to understand for all new traders (its only request sir)
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