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  • #1,821
  • Jun 16, 2022 12:29pm Jun 16, 2022 12:29pm
Quoting bluesteele
{quote} Just opened up FF and this thread..then looked at cadchf.... Well done ! And that right there cancels the cup and handle Cheers Blue
to be honest it did test my patience trying to get in position for the news. it could have easily gone the other way with the cup and handle you showed and i would have lost 1%,
  • #1,822
  • Jun 16, 2022 12:56pm Jun 16, 2022 12:56pm
Quoting T721
{quote} to be honest it did test my patience trying to get in position for the news. it could have easily gone the other way with the cup and handle you showed and i would have lost 1%,
Thats trading ! My trading methodologies and my mind is focused on Executing Probability scenarios/setups and controlling risk.
If I am wrong whether in analysis or a trade...I simply accept that by losing I have landed on the wrong side of probabilities..
If I am right than I have landed on the right side of probabilities.

Some verbal diarrhea ... Each trade I approach as a coin toss... It is impossible to know the outcome on a single flip...Yet If I Execute 100 flips/trades
I know my OUTCOME... So when I lose and I lose very often...and I have executed my process correctly, then its a good loss I only landed on the wrong side of probability...

Anyways Im just waiting for the SPX to possibly setup for another trade today and thought it was a good time to express my thoughts briefly on probabilities as you landed on the right side with an awesome trade !

Cheeers
Blue
Master your Mind,,,Master the Market
  • #1,823
  • Edited Jun 17, 2022 7:31am Jun 16, 2022 5:11pm | Edited Jun 17, 2022 7:31am
Risky trade --- took some shorts @12943 -- 12946 -- 12947 and 12947.8 see how itt goes tomorrow. Dont follow me as it could still hit 130+ ( hence risky )

if you do follow risk small



UPDATE --- got stopped out during night. exactly to the pip of my SL bout 1.30am UK . Sheeesh, cant get em all
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  • #1,824
  • Jun 17, 2022 10:48pm Jun 17, 2022 10:48pm
90% of trading success is in your mind, not in the charts.

90% of traders problems are psychological 90% of traders fail... Coincidence? Nope...

The Traders Journey: 1. Fail 2. Fail 3. Fail 4. Learn about psychology 5. Win

Amateur Traders > Predict what will happen Pro Traders > Just follow their trading plan

Avoid what the 95% do: - Have a plan - Manage risk - Work on your psychology - Think process not outcome

Trading is 10% Skill 90% Psychological Your mind is your greatest superpower. Train it well!

If you focus on 1. Execution 2. Emotional Control 3. Risk Instead of your PnL, you will have far better results.

The 3 foundations of successful trading 1. Strategy 2. Discipline 3. Risk Management Without one of these everything else crumbles!

Pro vs Amateur! - Amateur - Did I win? - Professional -Did I follow my rules?

https://twitter.com/TraderDivergent?...w0fY3bFHs2GuMQ
Master your Mind,,,Master the Market
  • #1,825
  • Edited 2:02am Jun 18, 2022 1:16am | Edited 2:02am
Trying to predict what will happen is the most difficult part of trading. I think that's why most traders avoid to predict the outcome of direction yet it's the most vital part. It's about understanding why it didn't the hit the LL and why it went Higher. It's not importnant to be right or wrong. It's important to know why you were right or wrong. Know your (how much drawdown can your endure, divide the account 4-6 smaller parts so that you can endure the DD and profit from that DD) and their capabilities and limits. In fact DD is not bad thing, we just need to figure out how to make it useful. Our aim is to make money, of course a lot of money not perfect entries. Face the hard part, get rewarded then

There is no right way or wrong way. There is only learning way. The best is earning and learning way. Wish you the best.
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  • #1,826
  • Jun 18, 2022 2:06am Jun 18, 2022 2:06am
I know of one trader who appreciates this lol (imho)

"There is no one way to trade the markets, and not ONE way that is best."


So I often ask myself, and just a general question, certainly not to any trader in particular

for what purpose prediction
when there are always (two) possibilities (but/and with varying probabilities).


I don’t ask the question of others, as it is not a question for another.
It is a question for ourselves.


Can we “influence” the market with our predictions?
If not,
Then maybe, for me, why not just go with what “the market is actually doing”.
(for reversal traders it can mean waiting until "what the market is actually doing”, halts,
and then attempts to change its direction).


When the river flows, I ask myself, why not swim with the river.

(Swimming against the current can be tiring, water gets up your nose, and can be uncomfortable,
though that's not to say you cannot succeed swimming against the current OR BEFORE the current begins).


If we consider swimming with the river, once it is flowing, then we can also get off anywhere when the bank of the river is to our liking (for profit).
Ride it all the way to the end, if we wish, ONCE it has begun.


I guess I also ask, does a trader really need to be on at the very start of each movement or turn, by prediction, when we can also profit all along the way, every day, once the movement has BEGUN.

Each trader will do what is best for themselves as always.
  • #1,827
  • Jun 18, 2022 2:26am Jun 18, 2022 2:26am
Quoting TimeTells
I know of one trader who appreciates this lol (imho) "There is no one way to trade the markets, and not ONE way that is best." So I often ask myself, and just a general question, certainly not to any trader in particular for what purpose prediction when there are always (two) possibilities (but/and with varying probabilities). I don’t ask the question of others, as it is not a question for another. It is a question for ourselves. Can we “influence” the market with our predictions? If not, Then maybe, for me, why not just go with what “the market...
Why you want to swim in the river even with the current, if the current is powerful you can get drowned. No bank can save. Catch the fish standing against the current with the net in your hands. Sit on the rock in the middle of the river fishing rod?
  • #1,828
  • Jun 18, 2022 2:30am Jun 18, 2022 2:30am
Quoting TimeTells
I know of one trader who appreciates this lol (imho) "There is no one way to trade the markets, and not ONE way that is best." So I often ask myself, and just a general question, certainly not to any trader in particular for what purpose prediction when there are always (two) possibilities (but/and with varying probabilities). I don’t ask the question of others, as it is not a question for another. It is a question for ourselves. Can we “influence” the market with our predictions? If not, Then maybe, for me, why not just go with what “the market...
Yes, so the tldr of your post is: trade with the current momentum (or, as others would say, trade with the trend). Not a groundbreaking realization, but at least it's true.
  • #1,829
  • Edited 3:08am Jun 18, 2022 2:44am | Edited 3:08am
Quoting Oliver.Twist
Yes, so the tldr of your post is: trade with the current momentum (or, as others would say, trade with the trend). Not a groundbreaking realization, but at least it's true.
There's a catch, the trader has to predict the momentum continue after he click the buy sell button.

Traders make all sorts of prediction. Predicting the future is our business.

What we are predicting.
With what trusted tool we use to make our predictions.
https://www.forexfactory.com/thread/...2#post14035862
(The trick is to find a suitable proxy for your volume.)

That's the difference.
And our trades reflect this difference.

Edit - this prediction journey starts with the development of our belief which changes with time and experience.
What "variable(s)" do we believe can be predicted?
SR levels, targets
Direction, trend
Orderblock
Momentum
Continuation of momentum
and so on.....
Know what you trade
  • #1,830
  • Jun 18, 2022 3:17am Jun 18, 2022 3:17am
Quoting BWilliam
{quote}
There's a catch, the trader has to predict the momentum continue after he click the buy sell button. Traders make all sorts of prediction. Predicting the future is our business. What we are predicting.
Hi Jason,
yes,
“predict the momentum continue”,
becomes the probability exercise ONCE momentum is underway
(ie where is the Targets)



Quoting Ihlas
{quote}
Why you want to swim in the river even with the current, if the current is powerful you can get drowned. No bank can save.
Catch the fish standing against the current with the net in your hands. Sit on the rock in the middle of the river fishing rod?
Hi Ihlas,
Hahaaa, I love your anology switch from swimming to fishing.



Quoting Oliver.Twist
{quote}
Yes, so the tldr of your post is: trade with the current momentum (or, as others would say, trade with the trend). Not a groundbreaking realization, but at least it's true.

Hi Ollie,
The gist of my post was intended to be the prediction part, but more specifically
Prediction BEFORE momentum
Momentum is something for assessment absolutely,
but imho the momentum HAS to have begun, first
(The Inflection/ranging/ accumulation stages etc have essentially zero or minimal momentum before the commencement)


BWs "prediction of momentum continuation" is a very good topic for discussion

Though my simple offering was really “for what purpose prediction prior to momentum”
  • #1,831
  • Jun 18, 2022 3:20am Jun 18, 2022 3:20am
Quoting TimeTells
...for what purpose prediction when there are always (two) possibilities (but/and with varying probabilities).
Pete, you touch on a very important aspect about prediction.

An example.

If trader1 say 1.03 e$ is the support at a lower point on the chart.

This means trader1 expects the market to trade at and higher than 1.03 and not lower(with allowance %variance).
Trader1 can't be trading breakout because he labelled it support.
He does not know if price will reach there in the future.

Trader2 labels 1.03 e$ as level of interest at the low.
Then trader2 may buy at 1.03 or sell at 1.03 which is his level of trading interest.
He does not know if price will reach there in the future.

Trader3 labels 1.03 e$ as support and execute a buy trade.
He makes the support call at market price, not some faraway high low price level.

When we look at the details closely we find clear differences in our labelling.
Support in the future versus level of trading interest vs Support now.

How we use these labels followed by how we trade at those levels reflect our belief system.
Know what you trade
  • #1,832
  • Edited 10:10pm Jun 18, 2022 6:54am | Edited 10:10pm
may be it can help.
Trader also see more video on youtube, PhotonTrading.

Still learn, and got the blues.
no, no , no
I'm NOT promoting that
I'm NOT his student
just subcriber there,
always remembering George Trading concept about FRACTALITY (not method as sir TimeTells said,
but MIND-SET)

and correlate that FRACTAL mind-set with what BEHIND its price dynamics (a.k.a MARKET MAKER PSYCHO)
and TARGET ... TARGET ... TARGET as ONE
sorry if my newbee keyboard disturb this thread.

ALL ENTRIES BASED ON TARGET, PRICE FILTER AND TMA PLAYGROUND AS ONE CHAIN, hope that help
Its why Sir George said that the secrets is in CORRELATION

For me, to get that undertanding i need 2 years ...
and for correct application, not there yet
still learn
but the journey must continue
just for me

All the best
Attached File(s)
File Type: pdf Market Structure Basics.pdf   3.6 MB | 6,365 downloads
File Type: pdf MTF Market Structure.pdf   2.9 MB | 1,618 downloads
File Type: pdf Market Structure FROM BILAL.pdf   6.3 MB | 415 downloads
File Type: pdf Market Structure-bilal.pdf   2.1 MB | 470 downloads
  • #1,833
  • Jun 18, 2022 7:42am Jun 18, 2022 7:42am
Quoting TimeTells
BWs "prediction of momentum continuation" is a very good topic for discussion
Hi Pete, predicting momentum continuation is a tricky business.

Top down approach using traditional technical analysis. Can the trader predict during US market on Friday momentum will continue for 200pips towards target2 ? Or trader has to predict target 2 first ? That means trader predicted target 1 after FOMC ?
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Know what you trade
  • #1,834
  • Jun 18, 2022 8:03am Jun 18, 2022 8:03am
Quoting BWilliam
{quote} Hi Pete, predicting momentum continuation is a tricky business. Top down approach using traditional technical analysis. Can the trader predict during US market on Friday momentum will continue for 200pips towards target2 ? Or trader has to predict target 2 first ? That means trader predicted target 1 after FOMC ? {image} {image} {image}
I feel target 1 stays intact, price may go lower for GU, will see ...
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"Exchange of hands"
  • #1,835
  • Jun 18, 2022 9:39am Jun 18, 2022 9:39am
Quoting Ihlas
Our aim is to make money, of course a lot of money not perfect entries. Face the hard part, get rewarded then There is no right way or wrong way. There is only learning way. {image}
Hi Ihlas, some traders aim for high win rate, low loss rate. Some trade for a living traders aim for a a wage. Some aim for a 2nd income. Some hope for a replacement income. Some investor traders aim for a % return. Some traders aim to make lots of money. Traders trade for different reasons. That's why we trade differently. It comes down to how much money.
Know what you trade
  • #1,836
  • Jun 18, 2022 12:52pm Jun 18, 2022 12:52pm
Quoting BWilliam
{quote} There's a catch, the trader has to predict the momentum continue after he click the buy sell button. Traders make all sorts of prediction. Predicting the future is our business. What we are predicting. With what trusted tool we use to make our predictions. https://www.forexfactory.com/thread/...2#post14035862 (The trick is to find a suitable proxy for your volume.) That's the difference. And our trades reflect this difference. Edit - this prediction journey starts with the development of our belief which changes with...
Agree, but here's a little twist: You talk about predictions, I say that specifically I don't predict, I follow price. Now some might follow price when the last pullback has failed to go deeper than 50%, or follow price when price breaks the low of the last HTF inside bar, or whatever "tool"/ metric he uses. And it's a fundamentally difference in how you view the market. You might want to split hairs and say, the moment you click the sell button you predict that price goes down, because if not what else? But it's not about predicting (at least, for me). It's about assessing the momentum, and "quality" of it, and finding an entry that puts the odds in my favor.
So it's about a combination of momentum and probabilities, not prediction. I'm part of the type of trader that answers to the question "what will GU do tomorrow, what level will it reach?", by saying "I don't know and I don't care". I do know that depending on how price behaves tomorrow, I might get an entry. But I understand that many don't get the difference.

I agree that whatever tool you use, including those you mentioned, can potentially be used to achieve this. The crux, is HOW you use a particular tool, it may make the difference between success & failure. Also simply put, experience with sticking to a particular tool to know how market behaves around it (or the other way round), is very important in the long run.
  • #1,837
  • Jun 18, 2022 1:01pm Jun 18, 2022 1:01pm
Quoting TimeTells
{quote} Hi Jason, yes, “predict the momentum continue”, becomes the probability exercise ONCE momentum is underway (ie where is the Targets) {quote} Hi Ihlas, Hahaaa, I love your anology switch from swimming to fishing. {quote} Hi Ollie, The gist of my post was intended to be the prediction part, but more specifically Prediction BEFORE momentum Momentum is something for assessment absolutely, but imho the momentum HAS to have begun, first (The Inflection/ranging/ accumulation stages etc have essentially zero or minimal momentum before...
Ok I see what you mean. In which case, you can refer to the answer I just posted to BWilliam.
In essence, prediction BEFORE momentum is not my approach, quite the opposite actually. In which case, I can't comment much on that, appart from my experience that predicting it before an actual move is much more difficult, and absolutely not necessary. If someone is good at it, then it can grant spectacular entries.
But, I insist on saying that it's not necessary in the sense that if you identify clean momentum moves, there is a much more likelihood of getting a slice of the cake (or, a scalp move in my case). The way I view it, why make your life difficult be trying to "predict" (similar to trying to pick tops & bottoms), when you can get even a small (but highly probable) chunk of an already established move.

Of course, to each his own, as long as it's successful in the long run.
  • #1,838
  • Jun 18, 2022 5:28pm Jun 18, 2022 5:28pm
Quoting BWilliam
{quote}
Hi Pete, predicting momentum continuation is a tricky business. {image} {image} {image}
Hi Jason,

Myself, I do not predict either the start of a momentum or even really its continuation.

I will use my template understanding to provide a certain probability. Not an exact maths representation like Kev/Bluesteele does (see his 95% post earlier).

But maybe it's the word prediction that is the issue not the (our) methods of trading.
  • #1,839
  • Jun 18, 2022 5:38pm Jun 18, 2022 5:38pm
Quoting Oliver.Twist
{quote}
Ok I see what you mean. In which case, you can refer to the answer I just posted to BWilliam. In essence, prediction BEFORE momentum is not my approach, quite the opposite actually. If someone is good at it, then it can grant spectacular entries. But, I insist on saying that it's not necessary in the sense that if you identify clean momentum moves, there is a much more likelihood of getting a slice of the cake (or, a scalp move in my case).
The way I view it, why make your life difficult be trying to "predict"...

Hi Ollie,

Cheers. That is how I would trade it also. I always have a near (and set in stone) Target in place (above AND below) current price.

And then I also have extended Targets all along the way, so I can adjust TP on-the-fly inside the moves (not before) should the momentum runs continue.
(ie sometimes I abandon the first near target and look for the 2nd etc, or sometimes even close for TP and then re-enter same trade direction after a pullback).

As you say, each to their own as long as its successful in the long run.

I am fortunate to know Andy/Moody and Kev/Blue style of trading,
which is based on the same Market Mechanics
yet who use a different IN-TRADE style than myself.

I therefore am witness there is no just ONE way to trade the market, or that a one way is BEST way to trade it.

Good fortunes sir.
  • #1,840
  • Jun 18, 2022 6:35pm Jun 18, 2022 6:35pm
Hi All,
Anyone here knows about trader Tom @Thetradingforexx. His has a channel on Telegram.
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