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Flying Dutchman

  • #1,781
  • Jun 13, 2022 3:00pm Jun 13, 2022 3:00pm
Quoting whitesta
{quote} Hi Bluesteele, Are those shaded yellow zones herd zones? Or you have done some calculations to get those? Regards
They are were only levels of interest. Just done by hand looking at previous PA and BRNs (ex. 4500.00) on Daily and 4 hr. All were used for short setups.

No calculations or indis only eyes and patterns.

The only calculations I do are some simple FIBS on the 5M US indices as well as MM measured moves counting bars etc...
Im a big believer in SIMPLICITY TO KEEP MY TRADING DUPLICATABLE.

One thing I have learned at some point in my journey is that your trading methodology should be two things....

1. ROBUST
2. SCALEABLE

For example when a trader cant find liquidity to trade their method on a 1M chart of say the EU...
Their trading isnt robust or scaleable... As its not fully fractal...IMO...
NOW thats not saying they dont have an edge that is profitable and makes money.

But i dont trade to make a wage or a living... I trade to make alot of money. Whether it be a 1M 5M or 4HR chart
and I will always say there are many ways to trade..Its what works for you and your personality/psychology.

Cheers
Blue
Master your Mind,,,Master the Market
  • #1,782
  • Edited 4:26pm Jun 13, 2022 4:12pm | Edited 4:26pm
“Weakness going into a weekend”

I wrote about this pattern 3 months ago. Heres the link...
https://www.forexfactory.com/thread/post/13932169#post13932169

So just a refresher on this Indice Pattern....

Friday trades closes below Thursday.
We want to be selling come Monday...Why ?

Over the course of a year 52 trading weeks comparing Thursday and Friday... 21 weeks Friday could not trade above Thursday.
Alright now stay with me. Out of those 21 weeks how many times did Monday trade lower than Friday?

Heres the results.. 20 out of 21 times Monday traded lower than Friday. Im sure most can do the division on these two numbers. Maybe im wrong but that seems like 95% to me. There is nothing random about a pattern that is 95% accurate.

There arepatterns in all markets, for charts are nothing but a picture of rational human thinking nothing more nothing less. And with rational human thinking comes predictability and patterns. These represent themselves onto the charts every minute of everyday san indicators.

All of which forms my wonderful friend George’s term “Psychology of the Market”.

There is no randomness in a complete chart.. One bar yes..but strung together high probability patterns emerge. The charts are much like the Insurance business. Probabilities, Statistics and management of risk. Traders are much like Actuaries and the charts are the people as a whole and candles the individual person... Well that's how my simple thinking mind sees it anyways.

This pattern was discovered by Tom Hougaard and I learned this from Tom a few years ago. It is not a widely discussed pattern...But there is no problem in sharing it.

Tom held shorts over the weekend after seeing the pattern develop...I didnt as I just dont hold over the weekend... But played it short today based on the 95% probability of the T/F setup.... then I used my
personal methodolgy to find a short entry off the US equity open.

The chart shows an opening pattern that plays out very frequently. So once in the trade I am holding a bearish bias based on the Th Fr pattern and general market bias. The 18th candle as marked sets my TP level which has a 95% probablility of being hit.

All in net 60pts. on original position.

Cheers
Blue

Attached Image (click to enlarge)
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Attached Image (click to enlarge)
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Master your Mind,,,Master the Market
  • #1,783
  • Jun 13, 2022 4:44pm Jun 13, 2022 4:44pm
Quoting Ihlas
{quote} Again BAMMM GJ Target2 eliminated {quote} More true than true. What works today, stops working tomorrow. So someone needs extensive research: inside, outside, up and down
Hi Ihlas,
Spot on with ur prediction again. U were right with the HK and US indices and now with the GBP/JPY. What you have got working for you in terms of coming up with ur targets is great. Was going through some of ur posts and looks like you evaluate quite well when a currency pair is over valued or undervalued..kudos to that. Ur chart looks quite simple with weekly high, low and 50% mark but I am sure there is more to it..lol. It's good that you and other experienced traders here are posting for new traders like us. Gives us hope that trading can be done by retail traders.

Happy trading all.
  • #1,784
  • Jun 13, 2022 6:06pm Jun 13, 2022 6:06pm
Quoting BWilliam
GJ sell-off finds the June open line. {image}

Hi Jason,

What a terrific ride GBPJPY has been over these past 14 trading days.

A 12 day run up taking out pretty much every target along the way (get in, get out with profit all along the way, I miss the NY session tho as I'm asleep ).


Then the peak last Thurs, cheers Andy, and pretty much every target so far on the way down (get in, get out with profit all along the way).


We were blessed as traders that the GJ grind up & then grind down allowed for such trading, however I have also seen GJ go into
consecutive days (up to three, cheers BW & Andy & Kev) where they inflect around & over quite a sizeable range, the 1hr chart is best for this stage,
but when this will or might occur, well we have to as traders just watch & observe.

Been quite a fun ride, and a great learning experience for all newcomers, good trading all.
  • #1,785
  • Edited 7:02pm Jun 13, 2022 6:30pm | Edited 7:02pm
Cheers Andy and cheers to all.

I was pleased to put the GBPJPY on the table from the start of the fun, as it's the pair that I am currently trading (just one for me per session but I DO diversify lol).


It would be great now if someone could switch us all over to ... A DIFFERENT pair ... (as Ihlas & Kev have done with their indices) ... I don't care which, I'll watch on.

So we can OBSERVE in full again the principles of the ... MARKET MECHANICS & BEHAVIOUR ... from yet another viewpoint (ie another PAIR.)

all the best
Pete
  • #1,786
  • Jun 13, 2022 7:04pm Jun 13, 2022 7:04pm
Quoting TimeTells
Cheers Andy and cheers to all. I was pleased to put the GBPJPY on the table from the start of the fun, as it's the pair that I am currently trading (just one for me per session but I DO diversify lol). It would be great now if someone could switch us all over to ... A DIFFERENT pair ... (as Ihlas & Kev have done with their indices) ... I don't care which, I'll watch on. So that we can examine in full again the principles of the ... MARKET MECHANICS & BEHAVIOUR ... from yet another viewpoint (ie another PAIR.) all the best Pete
pay attention to CADCHF for a swing drop. if it didnt top today it wont last long over 10000 imo. stop above Mon 16th may high. its worth the risk. going to bed , nite all
  • #1,787
  • Jun 13, 2022 7:12pm Jun 13, 2022 7:12pm
Quoting T721
{quote}
pay attention to CADCHF for a swing drop. if it didnt top today it wont last long over 10000 imo. stop above Mon 16th may high. its worth the risk. going to bed , nite all

Hi tt # 2

Mate I'd be happy to watch what other folks can CHART with that pair (it's not one I've ever traded tho).

CHF ie franky, and CAD ie new york would be where to best start with the charting I guess, good fortunes

all the best with it T721
  • #1,788
  • Jun 13, 2022 8:05pm Jun 13, 2022 8:05pm
Quoting T721
{quote} pay attention to CADCHF for a swing drop. if it didnt top today it wont last long over 10000 imo. stop above Mon 16th may high. its worth the risk. going to bed , nite all
WOW...what a chart..having looked at cadchf in years...

Thanks for bringing it up !
Master your Mind,,,Master the Market
  • #1,789
  • Jun 13, 2022 9:16pm Jun 13, 2022 9:16pm
Time to buy ?
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
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Know what you trade
  • #1,790
  • Edited 9:33pm Jun 13, 2022 9:22pm | Edited 9:33pm
Quoting bluesteele
i dont trade to make a wage or a living... I trade to make alot of money.
Day trade for a living to pay the bills is the worst mindset for trading - limiting and handicap mindset.
Know what you trade
  • #1,791
  • Jun 14, 2022 1:35am Jun 14, 2022 1:35am
Quoting TimeTells
{quote} Hi Jason, What a terrific ride GBPJPY has been over these past 14 trading days. A 12 day run up taking out pretty much every target along the way (get in, get out with profit all along the way, I miss the NY session tho as I'm asleep ). Then the peak last Thurs, cheers Andy, and pretty much every target so far on the way down (get in, get out with profit all along the way). We were blessed as traders that the GJ grind up & then grind down allowed for such trading, however I have also seen GJ go into consecutive days (up to three,...
Hi TimeTells,

Yes GBP/JPY had all the targets set well in advance.
  • #1,792
  • Edited 2:25am Jun 14, 2022 2:10am | Edited 2:25am
Quoting whitesta
{quote}
Hi TimeTells,
Yes GBP/JPY had all the targets set well in advance.

Hi W,

Cheers mate, yes we had a fun 3 weeks in total for sure with GJ and in a way it was the best thing you could have seen, yet in another not so.

Let me try and clarify that (and try to keep it as short as possible lol ).


The market (and certainly GBPJPY) do not act the way they did recently all of the time in regards to the dimension and expansions of their runs (pips).

What we saw, to me, was the classic grind in one direction, followed then by a grind back the other way.

12 days to get up (gradient was less inclined).

1 day faking around at the top
(created a 15m double top pattern, which is nothing really but ranging to trap both old buyers & new sellers still hanging in there).

and 2 days to return (the gradient or speed of the sell-offs are often much, much faster than the buy-ups).


Now, what might happen next (I don’t know) is that price could well meander around quite a substantial range (structure) on that GJ pair for a few days, maybe out to three days, less or more well I honestly don’t know.

(ie the meander could be, 50 pips above to 50 pips below whatever a median point becomes. But now I just wait & watch. I don’t predict I let the market indicate).

It would get quite advanced now probably to discuss how to benefit from these “identified ranges” trading, as it essentially becomes scalping for 10-15 pips out sometimes to 25 pips, over and over & also possibly both ways, INSIDE the identified range (as apart from the one directional trading we have just seen)


Some traders prefer to shoot for the stars pip-wise, and for big-hit runs and that is great with their depth of experience & trading skills.

I do not trade New York, and as I DO NOT leave any trade unattended (especially in these uncertain global economic times we find ourselves in - essentially unchartered territory for many who missed ’87 recession, 2000 dot com bust, 2008 GFCrisis etc), so I will now close my trade (in profit hopefully ) before bed, and sometimes therefore earlier than the full current move is showing, and then look for a re-entry later - next day - at a pullback should the opportunity arise. It doesn’t matter to me as I know the next session, the next day etc will provide me a trade possibility, as it usually does. ie ... I have no fear of missing out.

At my age I am also risk averse from past life experiences . Not all traders are the same of course.

Each trader imho needs to find what they are comfortable with at their current stage of trading experience, in the knowledge that they can always shoot harder at any time their skill level & psyche outlook grows to fit that trading model.

There is imho not ONE WAY to trade the markets. Or ONE WAY that is the best.
We are all individual, we must find what works best for us and then let others trade how they wish. I reckon .

So, why I NOW welcome other posters,
putting up their own Target Charts (cheers T721 ,Kev & BW already)
is that newcomers hopefully will see that all markets
operate to a similar Mechanic & Behaviour that only differs in its dimensions & candle outputs.

all the best

MORE CHARTS FROM ANY & ALL WHO WISH TO SHOW THEIR MULTI TARGET VIEWS WOULD BE GREAT
  • #1,793
  • Jun 14, 2022 1:19pm Jun 14, 2022 1:19pm
Quoting T721
{quote} pay attention to CADCHF for a swing drop. if it didnt top today it wont last long over 10000 imo. stop above Mon 16th may high. its worth the risk. going to bed , nite all
I dont trade the cadchf and really only stick to US Indices... But I had a look at the chart out of interest..

Several things stick out..first is the huge line in the sand at 0.7800 stretching back to Jan 2014.
Then is the 2 recent highs that have formed a bullish cup and handle pattern.
Will be interesting following this pair and seeing what develops..

Anyways heres some charts with the basics I look at from the outside (big picture) in.

Cheers
Blue

Attachment g
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
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Master your Mind,,,Master the Market
  • #1,794
  • Jun 15, 2022 12:23am Jun 15, 2022 12:23am
I've been following the "Obvious" thread, on Elitetrader; which has been running from 2009.
I assume that a few here have figured out the same secret.

"What every trader has to realise, is that all the risk management and position sizing techniques in the world are of no use what so ever,
unless the trader is aware of the obvious pre-requisite to trading any market"

So I'd like to ask everyone in the know, if you agree with these statements:

• in hindsight it's "obvious", but most will dismiss it for being too simple...
• even if you know it, it's difficult to do (or to do it properly)
• there is a simple explanation of the "why" of price behavior

  • #1,795
  • Jun 15, 2022 12:56am Jun 15, 2022 12:56am
Quoting Onra
unless the trader is aware of the obvious pre-requisite to trading ANY market"
Quoting Onra
• in hindsight it's "obvious", agree
but most will dismiss it for being too simple... agree
• even if you know it, it's difficult to do (or to do it properly) agree (most difficult hurdle)
• there is a simple explanation of the "why" of price behavior can agree
Hi Onra, my answer.
Know what you trade
  • #1,796
  • Jun 15, 2022 5:22am Jun 15, 2022 5:22am
Has anyone thought about hosting zoom calls here. would be beneficial to discuss strategies , targets etc or just even shoot the breeze now and again. lets face it this game can be lonely (not that i get bored) but were all sitting in some corner of the world doing the same thing and from what i have seen in this thread is a lot of talent . keep it to maybe 6 people so were not talking over each other. Any thoughts ???
  • #1,797
  • Jun 15, 2022 5:38am Jun 15, 2022 5:38am
I like this but many will not like it because they wouldn't want their face to be seen,they are too rich to be recognize
  • #1,798
  • Jun 15, 2022 5:47am Jun 15, 2022 5:47am
Quoting Enagy
I like this but many will not like it because they wouldn't want their face to be seen,they are too rich to be recognize
they dont need their face to be seen. cameras can be covered. and nobody would want to see my ugly mug anyway
  • #1,799
  • Jun 15, 2022 7:02am Jun 15, 2022 7:02am
Quoting T721
Has anyone thought about hosting zoom calls here. would be beneficial to discuss strategies , targets etc or just even shoot the breeze now and again. lets face it this game can be lonely (not that i get bored) but were all sitting in some corner of the world doing the same thing and from what i have seen in this thread is a lot of talent . keep it to maybe 6 people so were not talking over each other. Any thoughts ???
I worked with two guys for months to crack it; chatting, comparing and thinking almost every day.
Our paths eventually separated, because in the end everybody seems to choose his own road...

There are a few people here that know something special and they seem to be pretty confident about their method to exploit it.
They don't need a second opinion, certainly not from the uniformed.

I hope you can team up; I'm afraid I can't bring anything substantial to the table...
  • #1,800
  • Jun 15, 2022 7:04am Jun 15, 2022 7:04am
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
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Coincidence or not...?
EURUSD Monthly...
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