Trading Journal (only my take)

The term range bound is used often but it's relative term depending to some degree on the t/f used and the size of the range being shown, because after all, a range can be any size that a poster chooses to depict on a chart from purely a pictorial pov, and of course it goes without saying that the higher the t/f then the more reliable the range becomes which is true for all aspects of chart trading.

I attach EU pending short trades on an h4 chart which to my mind illustrates all this. The interesting part is when the market (nearly always) does it's best to encourage traders to trade in the opposite direction to where the market really will be heading, and these so called range bound areas are market tuned to mislead the majority.

Anyway enough on that

EU has reacted as expected, and both my short po's have now triggered.

Now it remains to be seen whether the market has indeed fooled traders enough into going long, and if so as I suspect, then we can expect a further small rise before a significant drop, which I expect on Thursday at some point, maybe Friday.

What ever happens, I personally cannot adjust anything at this stage and must remain patient until the market starts making what I think is it's real intended move down.

EU has had a bit of a dance in the last day or so and still doing it's best imo to convince and encourage traders to long. I took that retrace opportunity to add a 3rd short position as seen in image.

Patience as always is the key, when, as individuals we trust what we are doing, resulting in a rational decision being made.

EU all 3 trades stopped out
Whilst I am surprised and obviously did not expect that, there are no excuses.

We think we have a handle on the market dynamics, but these failed trades brings reality back into focus and it is obviously disappointing to lose, but the important part for me, irrespective of the short term result as in this case, is to maintain the same level of commitment to an overall profitable approach. No one will ever win every trade they place, and the good news is they don’t need to.

GN long PO1 triggered (nowT1). Nothing more needs to be said at this stage.

GJ short PO1 triggered.

Erratic market moves are likely to continue across the board. NFP and bank holiday season in play for a couple of weeks along with the continuing Ukraine world wide affected shortage of supplies situation will mean a pretty bumpy ride for quite some time yet.

Whilst we once may have previously and reasonably expected a market to move in a particular way or direction, there now appears to be a greatly reduced predictiveness in the markets.

I guess it means we all still continue take a shot using our own tried and previously trusted methods, and sprinkle it with even more hope but less expectation than we all have probably done in the recent past.

Enough for now. GJ chart attached

A high level of volatility is bound to occur shortly.

There will be those hindsight bullshitters of course, who later on will tell you they did this and that blah blah blah crap, maybe with pathetic hindsight charts explaining why it should have been oh so obvious!

Complete nonsense of course. Sure, we all need some kind of reference point or level to help us make a decision, that's normal, but if a chart shows on a long term t/f that it's been going either up or down, then the law of averages alone should tell anyone to follow that same direction. Just decide on a pullback level to enter a po trade....bearing in mind that no one knows the ideal level of course, otherwise everyone would be millionaires if they did.

So far as I'm concerned, there's not much more to it than that. Some po's won't trigger, some will lose, some will win. Patiently managing the trades, along with any add-ons determines profitability, and it's that aspect that seems to be mostly neglected by wannabe traders.

Bottom line, steer clear of bullshit hindsighters, they teach you nothing.

We are all geniuses in hindsight!!

So, following on from above, I have a couple of EU short pending orders yet to trigger. It conforms in all respects to my previous post.....will it trigger, I don't know (nor does anybody else btw), but it is at least clearly labelled with no ambiguity and follows my own principles. The good thing about this is that I am not particularly bothered either way whether it triggers or not. If it does, I reckon I'il have a pretty good entry level or two, if, over time, it doesn't trigger, then I've lost nothing, and move on.

EU PO1 short triggered, and now becomes T1. 50% now taken and stop adjusted as shown.
With position properly managed, and in decent profit, means I have nothing more to do on this position for now

PO2 didn't trigger and now cancelled.

Ref above, I've moved TP1 lower and adjusted SL1 a little lower also. The trade is already profitable. Will it go much lower? I don't know, but personally I usually like to have the stop take me out rather than the TP level when it's my last position, simply because it's impossible to know a real target level, only the market knows, and doing it this way means that I won't be too disappointed whatever the market decides to do, and I always have the chance that the market moves favourably more than a hard TP level. So far as I'm concerned, it's basic trade management of a winning trade, but doubt many would see it that way.

I won't bother with a chart for now....we'll just see what happens (not that anybodys that interested anyway)

EU trade update.

Stop adjusted, which effectively is my take profit level as previously described. The actual TP1 level has been moved also, but unlikely to be used.

It's quite possible that price will retrace higher over the next few days, and if so, then I may be able to find another attractive pending order level...I am not in a position to do that just yet.

EU continues to fall, which is good. No clear retrace level for an at value add-on po as yet, but will likely occur soon enough. There's no rush, as current trade is now very healthy, with stop further adjusted, along with arbitrary tp level.

EU retrace occurring as expected. This now enables me to implement another PO sell, yet to trigger of course.

Nothing else has changed regarding existing position.

The chart may start to get a little cluttered, but hopefully my labelling makes everything clear to anyone looking at it.

imo, (particularly for my approach to trading that is) market levels override all else. That is probably obvious when looking at my charts, candles/bars, colours make no difference at all, and yet 99.99% seem to be fixated by them.

When a market moves, it still leaves its' footprint with or without all the fancy bar colours etc. Raw information is much less confusing when figuring out suitable trading levels to place PO's. I use the fib tool with my own settings mostly to decide upon my po pending entry leves, and sometimes a trendline and/or a ma.

Lower t/fs, certainly below 4hr are unnecessary, because it is the price level that's important, which means that the time it takes to reach any key level is completely out of any retail traders hands, the market will only move when ready.

Controlling trades, once triggered, is probably the biggest aspect to effectively deal with. For many, it is clear that their emotions and lack of discipline and patience play a huge part in failing to maximise any profit to be made.

I've seen many threads for instance where traders operate on 1 minute charts, stay in a trade for an hour and eventually jump out at b/e. Over 30-40 trades like that is the best part of a week sat staring at a chart. A lot of stress for no reward.

Anyway, just passing the time whilst markets seem a little in limbo at present.

EU trade update
Well actually nothing much to say. Some up and down movement and that's about it. My stop levels remain at exactly the same as they were previously, with no reason to adjust yet. Profits are locked in no matter whatever happens, controlled by the stop level rather than the tp level for the reason I've explained before.

No one ever knows how the markets will move, and obviously no one ever knows best entry, stop or tp levels.

A trader should know how best to manage a profitable position though. So many jump out far too early when in profit, without taking advantage of their favourable position, which as I've shown simply requires a breathable stop and patience, then just sit back and let the market do it's thing, and consider an add-on at a value level when the opportunity presents itself, which is exactly what I have in place, with add on pending order yet to trigger, if at all, in which case I'll naturally be re-assessing a different level at value.

I think we can expect significant volatility this week, with a number of what may appear to be breaks in market levels, but are usually designed to trick, and become nothing more than false breaks.

I'm not concerned either way

Markets are jostling for now, nothing new in that and quite typical during the first half of most weeks.

Some thoughts to consider for anyone interested, which I've probably touched on here and there in the past.

KISS is well known, and I apply that principle myself. It can take any form that suits a trader.

The majority though appear to prefer/adopt a complex and often confusing approach imo, in the belief that they can gain some kind of extra advantage. There is no evidence of that in any approach that I've seen.

In my case, as may be obvious to some, I prefer deciding upon a potential pending order entry level, either long or short, then wait. If it triggers, then I know I may be stopped out, or it might start moving favourably for me, the bottom line is, no one can ever know how the market is going to move with any certainty.

Most of the time, at least in my case, involves waiting, whether that be for a trigger to occur, or whether the trigger has already occurred and I'm actively in a trade.

Assessing a trigger level or an active trade level is a daily habit, and a crucial part of my approach.

Upon assessment, I consider modifications to either trigger levels or active trade stops.

It could be acronymed as WAM....Wait, Assess, Modify.

The straightforward message is keeping it as simple as possible will avoid confusion

Well, as expected, this week has given us the full works, with breaks both north and south as I imagined it would.

The movement has triggered my additional po, and would also seem to be a good level, at least for the time being ref post 353.

No need for a chart at this point, because nothing has changed for me regarding the levels shown in that post, the only activity is the sell trigger.

I will likely update next week in the event that I need to manage one or both trades, but for now no need to do anything other than wait

EU update
T1... half was initially taken 15th Aug for 120 pips. The other half stopped out earlier today for 185 pips. A satisfactory result, although some are bound to think I should have cashed out earlier. They know nothing, except what's best to do in hindsight!

I stick to my own trading principles with regard to trade management and couldn't care less what hind-sighters think. Anyone can be a smart arse after markets have already moved.

The idea so far as I'm concerned, when in profit, is to continue to give trades a realistic chance, whilst managing the trade with a breathable stop.

T2 is still in progress with T2 levels as previously ie I'm in the waiting phase at present, and will manage the trade much the same as before if I get the chance.

EU.....T2 sell update

50% taken at 100 pips

SL and TP adjusted. Trade is safe now.

As previously, the tp level is mainly an arbitrary level in case of a significant move in my absence. I rather plan to be stopped out when i'm in this kind of position, in the knowledge that everything's safe with the potential for even more favourable market movement in the desired direction.

EU...update

Some movement north

T2.... s/l and t/p levels adjusted

PO3 short pending order level near triggering.