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  • #1,481
  • May 24, 2022 2:42pm May 24, 2022 2:42pm
The probability of an event (in an ideal experiment where
there are no uncertain external disturbances) is the absolute square of a complex
quantity called the probability amplitude. When the event can occur in several
alternative ways the probability amplitude is the sum of the probability amplitude
for each alternative considered separately.
  • #1,482
  • May 24, 2022 2:56pm May 24, 2022 2:56pm
Dear pip troops,

trading with George theory is very simple :

- draw fractal target ABOVE and BELOW
- use and visualize price entry filter ( entri probability enhancer/averaging the probability what Nakamoto will do and will NOT do)
- WAITING and OBSERVE

NEVER PREDICT
NEVER ASSUME
Being boundless is above
and
look ALL TF as one ( fractal mindset )
is A MUST

then click your button
TP 10 pips

then

SLEEP

BEST TRADER IN THIS WORLD IS ALWAYS PATIENCE AND ADOPT DISCRETION DECISION at all time
while dedicate his time TO WAIT, THEN REACT/FOLLOW

Best Regards
  • #1,483
  • May 24, 2022 4:58pm May 24, 2022 4:58pm
Quoting deanyakobs
The probability of an event (in an ideal experiment where there are no uncertain external disturbances) is the absolute square of a complex quantity called the probability amplitude. When the event can occur in several alternative ways the probability amplitude is the sum of the probability amplitude for each alternative considered separately.

Hi DY,

Mate I am not well versed on this subject so I can only make a layman’s opinion here, but I’m thinking there are might be too many sub-events within the full movements to have just a one probability amplitude outlook. I DO NOT know and welcome all input.


However, when the market reaches for targets, they often (not always) try and shake-out followers which develops into a minor (or major) pullback that then forms a new HL or LH, and these to me are one small clue.

At that point a trader could ( might ?) enter, or add to, a position with some reasonably high probability factor that the target being driven to is the ONE in this drive, or session, or just this particular directional momentum.


Either way, our eyes and experience provide a clue.

If a move is 40 pips in total …

(a Pip, for those experiencing any difficulty with this, is the difference between two SET price levels, so a pip is NOT a method to determine trade profitability, it is a “chart price range” differential).

Then for a scalper, who can obtain 10 to 15 pips WITHIN say a full 40+ pip move to a target, this seems a reasonable return when the probability of the drive to the KNOWN target is high.

Though some achieve higher with their knowledge of price boundaries of which BWilliam had skills.

In fact, I would warmly welcome BWilliam’s opinion on D-Y’s Probability Amplitude as this may also have been a part of HIS search when looking at boundaries in forex price moves.

I just use my (old, lol) eyes within my Target Boundaries I have on my charts which include George’s firstly, then Kev’s from his great post above, also Andy’s on his Monthly view, plus my own (BW inspired) maths targets that I have sitting horizontally on my charts as inflection points.

all the best d-y and thank you again for your input.


Here’s a (slightly fuller) view of my daily market overview, with the inflections as my expected Rotation points for price.

TO EXPAND FURTHER ON ALL OF THIS, BWILLIAM SHOULD RETURN

.
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: GBPJPYM15 below the day open yesterday.png Size: 15 KB
  • #1,484
  • May 24, 2022 5:06pm May 24, 2022 5:06pm
Quoting bluesteele
{quote} "(Most traders do this in the reverse way, they only look for the times things might work, not, "NOT work" lol)"
I think this is the most difficult ... How can we know that it is not work? every one want to know both, When it works, and when it Not work ... especially if without looking at history data, it is very very difficult ... any idea?
  • #1,485
  • May 24, 2022 5:48pm May 24, 2022 5:48pm
Quoting deanyakobs
The probability of an event (in an ideal experiment where there are no uncertain external disturbances) is the absolute square of a complex quantity called the probability amplitude. When the event can occur in several alternative ways the probability amplitude is the sum of the probability amplitude for each alternative considered separately.
Please explain this concept more. It sounds interesting.
  • #1,486
  • May 24, 2022 6:24pm May 24, 2022 6:24pm
i DONT KNOW .. what i type Darling

I just learn English here

Nothing more, nothing less.

Cha ... cha
  • #1,487
  • May 24, 2022 6:28pm May 24, 2022 6:28pm
Quoting TimeTells
{quote} Hi DY, Mate I am not well versed on this subject so I can only make a layman’s opinion here, but I’m thinking there are might be too many sub-events within the full movements to have just a one probability amplitude outlook. I DO NOT know and welcome all input. However, when the market reaches for targets, they often (not always) try and shake-out followers which develops into a minor (or major) pullback that then forms a new HL or LH, and these to me are one small clue. At that point a trader could ( might ?) enter, or add to, a position...

Agreed, I would most welcome BW returning to the chat.

Andy.
  • #1,488
  • May 24, 2022 8:15pm May 24, 2022 8:15pm
I learn to predict pea and shell game with probability amplitutude while cooking in kitchen.
But still can not grasp the concept fully in real time application.

Its too advance in my world
Better to hold fast and come back to TARGET trader.
Its seem the best choice for me.

Permutation formula is,
nPr = n! / (n-r)!
Assume r = 1,
nPr = 15! / (15-1)! = 15
Assume r = 2,
nPr = 15! / (15-2)! = 210
Assume r = 3,
nPr = 15! / (15-3)! = 2730
Summation nPr = nPr1+ nPr1 + nPr3 +...

Happy learn
  • #1,489
  • Edited 3:35am May 25, 2022 3:17am | Edited 3:35am
Target Trading

with the Targets all established on the charts, and known well in advance (non-historical)



HL and LH become future Swing Targets, newly formed for our market to chase
(the Market makes them - and then chases them)


As they are extending their HL or LHs (for the taking in the future)
if in consecutive runs towards prior swing targets (formed earlier)
can provide a secondary benefit 'now' of indicating directional intention


The past 3 days on GJ have been a terrific example of how the Market Mechanics & Market Behaviour plays out.

Though the Pea & Shell market game does have a number of variations, but they are all pretty much in the same ultimate theme.

72 pips on the latest run (blue-far right) after London tonight to take out the prior LH target (green-middle),
was about halfway 50% of the yesterday's run (amazing, cheers again failinforex)
Traders getting in for a slice of the action, well I reckon 28 pips was not unreasonable, with traders all 'choosing' their entry point (by being boundless)

now some music I reckon
all the best, day is done,
cheers Pete


.
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: GBPJPYM15 swing target HL LH in advance.png Size: 17 KB
  • #1,490
  • May 25, 2022 3:29am May 25, 2022 3:29am
Quoting TimeTells
Target Trading with the Targets all established on the charts, and known well in advance (non-historical) HL and LH become future Swing Targets, newly formed for our market to chase (the Market makes them - and then chases them) As they are extending their HL or LHs (for the taking in the future) if in consecutive runs towards prior swing targets (formed earlier) can provide a secondary benefit 'now' of indicating directional intention The past 3 days on GJ have been a terrific example of how the Market Mechanics & Market Behaviour plays out. Though...
Well done Pete, it can’t be done you know.
No one can trade, unless they use volume!!
  • #1,491
  • May 25, 2022 9:05am May 25, 2022 9:05am
a deviation of unknowns from randomness naturally creates repeatable patterns. Those patterns, mathematically defined and interrelated, formulate the chart.
  • #1,492
  • Edited 6:19pm May 25, 2022 6:09pm | Edited 6:19pm
Quoting deanyakobs
a deviation of unknowns from randomness naturally creates repeatable patterns. Those patterns, mathematically defined and interrelated, formulate the chart.

Interesting for me to think on, as always, D-Y, cheers


(and where is BW to also enlighten us some more,
maybe if i quote him he will hopefully look in again one day)

Quoting BWilliam
{quote}
I don't subscribe into the idea that currency prices are solely determined by supply and demand forces. S&D may be more applicable to stocks, indices and cryptos.
  • #1,493
  • May 25, 2022 6:16pm May 25, 2022 6:16pm
Quoting moodybot
{quote} Well done Pete, it can’t be done you know. No one can trade, unless they use volume!!

Cheers Andy, and as we have discussed before we also believe RickM found something very useful in trading for himself (& others) with his study of volumes
of the 1 minute candles, where he also saw certain repetitive things were happening, and well done to him.


Others trade the 5min brilliantly (Kev), while Andy has the 1hr chart (with 1 wk & 1mth deep observations) under his domain.

WE ALL see similar things are happening.

That the market repeats its behaviours in the "areas" we all focus on individually.

Which was what George was saying. That the markets behave fractally.

We don't ever need to say or listen that there is only ONE way to trade the markets. We each know better than just those simplistic comments.


Anyways, my charts, I'm getting bored with them TOO (like most, lol) as they are repetitive.

When we ask ourselves why are they repetitive, our answer might be because the markets repeat.

.
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: GBPJPYM15 all the same behaviour.png Size: 18 KB
  • #1,494
  • May 25, 2022 6:45pm May 25, 2022 6:45pm
Quoting TimeTells
{quote} Cheers Andy, and as we have discussed before we also believe RickM found something very useful in trading for himself (& others) with his study of volumes of the 1 minute candles, where he also saw certain repetitive things were happening, and well done to him. Others trade the 5min brilliantly (Kev), while Andy has the 1hr chart (with 1 wk & 1mth deep observations) under his domain. WE ALL see similar things are happening. That the market repeats its behaviours in the "areas" we all focus on individually. Which was what George was saying....
Ha, cheers Pete.

For some using charts are a joke, almost a magical experience, however one fact has to be taken in consideration. It takes time, study and perhaps losses to get to a point where breakeven or profit will occur on a constant basis.

You Pete, are nudging people in the right direction, not necessarily how to trade although everything you do is on your charts, but how to view life, and how to interact with all manner of characters on the factory.

If a trader reposts your chart, and writes bullshit on it, you reply succinctly and with decorum explaining for all to see that it’s not the chart or you that is the issue.

Me, I call a spade a spade!
  • #1,495
  • May 25, 2022 10:43pm May 25, 2022 10:43pm
If we see charts from the world of the HORIZONTAL LINE

it is amazing to se hh/hl/ll/lh become multi Fractal like snow.

And adding that with the ultimate edge :

The WAITING

the ulimate antitesis of PREDICTING

how bore trading is

because its INTANGIBLE CONSTRUCT
IN ITS mathematical constant

Any construct has a constant

just learn typing fast here with so much editing and google translate
I am NOT TRADER
ITS ALL ILLUSION
I.M WAITER
WITH NO TRACK RECORD

SO IGNORE ME FOREVER
  • #1,496
  • May 26, 2022 6:08pm May 26, 2022 6:08pm
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: GBPJPYM15 day in day out market mechanics.png Size: 16 KB
  • #1,497
  • May 26, 2022 7:17pm May 26, 2022 7:17pm
Okay I was asked about,

?????
make it ‘them” this time that pays out
?????


Fair question

imo, the them, or they, are those that hold all the strength (and $$$) in the markets

I do not believe we are winning or losing DIRECTLY to …. another retail trader,
where our trades have been matched with a (retail) counter-party IMMEDIATELY we make our trade

but WHO KNOWS
lol

More than likely, imho only, it’s a vast array of Liquidity Provider’s who hold each & every retail trade on their books,
buys & sells, winners & losers, all at the same time in aggregate
until they have a positive book in one direction, and then they flip the market over
(this can be in minutes or can be hours or can be DAYS)
(they of course being bound themselves ultimately to some fundamental or CB oversight - so they (lp's) CAN lose as well as win - ironic if true)

Who knows,
I have put hours into thinking on all this and now conclude that it (for myself)
JUST DOESN’T MATTER

We can only trade it as we see it.
If we can see the Pea & Shell game, then follow their hands closely,
to see where the pea has been placed, this time.

The best I can do folks, sorry, from chart after chart after chart, is to now - just say

When you see it,
you will never not see it again.

all the best folks, always
trade safe
Pete
(back to music )
  • #1,498
  • May 26, 2022 11:23pm May 26, 2022 11:23pm
Quoting TimeTells
Okay I was asked about, ????? make it ‘them” this time that pays out ????? Fair question imo, the them, or they, are those that hold all the strength (and $$$) in the markets I do not believe we are winning or losing DIRECTLY to …. another retail trader, where our trades have been matched with a (retail) counter-party IMMEDIATELY we make our trade but WHO KNOWS lol More than likely, imho only, it’s a vast array of Liquidity Provider’s who hold each & every retail trade on their books, buys & sells, winners & losers, all at the same time in aggregate...
Pete Pete Pete...always classy and always wise !

Couldnt agree more Pete.... WHO CARES !!!!

What traders dont realize or dont get...is very simply this,,,,,,,,,

Its not you vs. the Market.....ITS YOU vs YOU !

One doesnt need any indicators...One doesnt need any chart markings..One for sure doesnt need volume or delta lol...

A simple candlestick chart... Price and Time are all that matter and they are all that is needed......

Some need crutches and training wheels and THATS OK !!!! We are all different...

One of my Mentors is highly successful in the trading arena...to say the least...

Heres a link to a video from the others day trading... I was trading that morning and taking almost all of the same trades as Tom.

What was used ?? A bare naked ass chart (oh yes with candlesticks for the petulant one )

Intra daytrading scalping the Nasdaq...

Tom is an incredible trader to say the least...and if you watch him hopefully you will come to understand ITS YOU vs YOU....
Trading is a high performance business...

TRADING IS ALL ABOUT MINDSET NOT INDICATORS OR VOLUME OR ANY OTHER BULLSHIT....

It does not matter whos running the market who controls what.. Toss out what you think you know and watch how its done...
Now this isnt for everyone... Its hardcore trading... In and out...Cutting your losses... switching your bias..

SO YES 100% PETE IS CORRECT IT JUST DOESNT MATTER..ITS YOU AND WHAT YOU SEE ON THE NAKED CHART.. THATS IT !


AND NOW HERES TOM !

Inserted Video


Edit: hmm cant seem to recall how to embed or insert video in the post LOL... technologically challenged ....but I can make hundreds of points a day with a naked chart
Master your Mind,,,Master the Market
  • #1,499
  • May 28, 2022 1:31pm May 28, 2022 1:31pm
Quoting bluesteele
Its not you vs. the Market.....ITS YOU vs YOU !
Absolute true. Pray before you start and you will get your result. Or not. But you know why didn't you?

Quoting bluesteele
{quote} TADING IS ALL ABOUT MINDSET NOT INDICATORS OR VOLUME OR ANY OTHER BULLSHIT
Sure. It all about drawing lines on the historical charts.
Observer effect
  • #1,500
  • Edited 6:34pm May 28, 2022 3:56pm | Edited 6:34pm
Quoting ryuryu
{quote} Absolute true. Pray before you start and you will get your result. Or not. But you know why didn't you? {quote} Sure. It all about drawing lines on the historical charts.
I'm pretty convinced Blue doesn't have to pray, but you do Rudy. You pray for a rising market! Correct??

He's the rub. Blue trades Long and Short every day, and he draws lines onto his chart, as do I, and they act as a visual reference, a concept that I still don't think you have fully grasped.

But here's the interesting thing, the markets that we trade have enough punters to allow trading with larger lots.

You have already mentioned that you only trade short. That's fine, I prefer to trade short, the moves down are of a greater magnitude and easily seen. So it would appear that Crypto follows the same market movements even though perhaps liquidity may be an issue. Strange that.
However with the markets that I trade I can also trade Long, along with Blue, Pete and a great many other people and with less of a liquidity issue.

But you don't trade Long, and for a reason, as you have said traders are more inclined to prefer to trade Long.

So we have a Crypto market with poor liquidity, that you have to trade short due to most traders preferring Long and like all other markets, you need to be opposite to retail.

Which brings us to the recent big dump on Crypto. Why did you stop posting your magic account results?

Lets take a look. You trade short on a rising market as you look for signs of a short reversal or retracement with your volume voodoo.

Crypto takes a dump and..... you can't trade, that's why you stopped posting! You were stuck!

With not enough people trading the market and to stay under the radar which Rick has previously suggested, you have to play with with a tiny one, you can't trade with a larger account.

Scalping 800+ trades a day, having to trade weekends, family life is way more important to me so I'll continue trading all markets, all directions on auto, or manual for a couple of hours a day, Monday to Friday and and not with a restricted account size.

You may paint a rosy picture Rudy, you may take the piss out of those who draw lines on a chart, but you're no better off than the rest of us.

EDIT!!

If a trader wanted to increase volume through a particular market, what would be a better way than channel more folks through via a website or perhaps private group.
Would an advantage be gained in a low liquidity market knowing where and when traders may all, as a one, be looking to trade.... hmm!
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