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Bitcoin ETF ‘Nearly Certain’ To Win Approval Later This Year 27 replies

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Is Bitcoin ETF approval fully priced in?

  • Post #1
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  • First Post: Oct 13, 2021 12:35pm Oct 13, 2021 12:35pm
Lots of hype out there about BTC futures ETF approval coming this month so I'm wondering if there is much upside left from here? Have people been buying because they think approval is going to happen this month and will they take profits if it actually happens? I think we'll go above ATHs on the news but I also think we'll dump shortly after. Also what is the downside if the SEC delays or outright denies? It seems to me people are writing off this possibility but 2018 had lots of ETF hype too and look what happened after that. Long term I think BTC goes much higher but I'm just trying to figure out the best way to position for short term trading.
https://www.cnbc.com/2021/10/12/bitc...2022-cfra.html

These are the ones to look out for this month:

"VanEck, ProShares, Invesco, Valkyrie and Galaxy Digital have all filed for bitcoin futures ETFs. The first four could be approved, denied or have their decisions delayed by mid- to late October; Galaxy Digital’s fate will be revealed by Nov. 1."
Price at the time of posting so we can compare when the decisions come:

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  • Post #4
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  • Edited at 3:07pm Oct 13, 2021 2:56pm | Edited at 3:07pm
Quoting BTCmailman
I think we'll go above ATHs on the news but I also think we'll dump shortly after.
I think you're right and this is the most likely outcome, and I think that the dump will be furiously bought (which is the strategy that I will be taking.) The hype has been intense and markets never go from overpriced or underpriced to appropriately priced. Ultimately, somewhere between short- and medium-term, this results in major new capital pouring into the space.

I may sound like an idealist here, but the potential in the long-term is obvious and I think the sophisticated market sees that very plainly and is itching to put as much capital to work as reasonable.

Quoting BTCmailman
Also what is the downside if the SEC delays or outright denies? It seems to me people are writing off this possibility but 2018 had lots of ETF hype too and look what happened after that.
Personally I would be happy if this happened because the market will only mature more in the additional time it takes and this would be a great buying opp. I don't have the slightest clue how much of the market is banking on short-term trading the approval.
For the average joe, planning for retirement, the risk associated with even a 1% allocation to crypto is incredibly small relative to potential gain. I would expect that good financial advisors would take this route if their firm allowed them (i.e. regulated ETF). 1% of the financial planning market is huge in $ terms. Caveat here is a BTC Futures ETF may not be the best-suited route for these guys, but a stepping stone for sure.
Quoting yieldjunkie
I think the sophisticated market sees that very plainly and is itching to put as much capital to work as reasonable
Yup, spot on with that assessment https://www.cryptocraft.com/news/111...ehind-bitcoins

Quoting yieldjunkie
Caveat here is a BTC Futures ETF may not be the best-suited route for these guys, but a stepping stone for sure.
Agree 100%. How many people will actually read the prospectus or understand the mechanics of a futures ETF? I'd say not many and the ones who don't are gonna be pissed that the returns are lagging BTC spot. But hey, the SEC is just looking out for the little guy
Quoting BTCmailman
How many people will actually read the prospectus or understand the mechanics of a futures ETF? I'd say not many and the ones who don't are gonna be pissed that the returns are lagging BTC spot. But hey, the SEC is just looking out for the little guy
Almost guaranteed there will be little-to-no reading of prospectuses or consideration of mechanics.
Well it looks like approval is coming or there is a troll running this SEC Twitter account...
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There was some trolling in the past but this would be next level.
Doesn't look like it was priced in.

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Great minds think alike.
Quoting BTCmailman
I think we'll go above ATHs on the news but I also think we'll dump shortly after.
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Quoting Goat
Great minds think alike. {quote} {image}
I don't agree with his reasoning but we get to a similar conclusion. Although I don't think this would be anything more than a short term top and I think any sell off will be profit taking not manipulation. Overall a Futures ETF doesn't really change much, we already have futures and the newly added micro futures are much more accessible to smaller traders. It's only really bullish for the fact that it's another step closer to a physical ETF.
Quoting BTCmailman
It's only really bullish for the fact that it's another step closer to a physical ETF.
Why is a physical ETF bullish? Because of custody buying? And is there none of that with these other ETF?
Quoting Goat
{quote} Why is a physical ETF bullish? Because of custody buying? And is there none of that with these other ETF?
Yup because that means a near constant source of demand in the spot market. Think about how many shitty companies benefit from passive ETFs in the equity space. These passive ETFs are just buying companies because they are part of an index not based on fundamentals at all. Which is why Michael Burry has been calling index funds a massive bubble and huge risk. Assuming people put even a fraction of their 401k into a BTC ETF, that's a constant buyer of the ETF and therefore spot BTC every paycheck.

Not sure about other ETFs, I guess the ones that invest in miners and MSTR are kind of doing a similar thing to a lesser extent since not all of the inflows will go directly to buying spot. But I'm not aware of any ETFs currently that can buy spot directly. Futures ETFs are just going to enrich the ETF providers & CME while providing a shitty product to retail.
Quoting BTCmailman
so I'm wondering if there is much upside left from here?
I think it's clear the answer was "yes". There was much upside left
Quoting cryptocow
{quote} I think it's clear the answer was "yes". There was much upside left
Yup, ETF was definitely not fully priced in. Let's see how big this dip is, hoping for a decent drop to around 50k but not sure it's gonna come. Also I'm shocked at how well the ETF is doing so far, record breaking numbers. I'm a little worried the SEC will say they scratched the market's itch and keep denying physical ETFs. Maybe once everyone sees how poorly it tracks spot it will lose some of its luster.

Now the question is, how soon until an ETH futures ETF? That's definitely not priced in right now
Quoting BTCmailman
Also I'm shocked at how well the ETF is doing so far, record breaking numbers. I'm a little worried the SEC will say they scratched the market's itch and keep denying physical ETFs. Maybe once everyone sees how poorly it tracks spot it will lose some of its luster.
It is somewhat surprising. I also imagine that a physical ETF should have more market-moving impact. With a physical ETF even my mom could "buy bitcoin".
Interesting thread regarding potential spot ETF approval. It's from the CEO of Grayscale so take it with a grain of salt...

https://twitter.com/Sonnenshein/stat...9kQ0XMvysIynlw


I'm keeping an eye on the Grayscale Bitcoin Trust discount to NAV as a potential signal of impending ETF approval:

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If the discount starts aggressively shrinking I'll be looking to buy.
  • Post #18
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  • Last Post: May 4, 2022 1:08pm May 4, 2022 1:08pm
Ended up buying a few weeks ago when the discount was shrinking... but now widening again:
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