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Flying Dutchman

  • #961
  • Mar 12, 2022 1:31am Mar 12, 2022 1:31am
Quoting BWilliam
Hi V, just a simple exercise to try answer both yours and lasttry question..... take a look at GU now, since rising from an hour before London close where did price stop - anywhere or somewhere specific ?
https://www.forexfactory.com/thread/...3#post13910883
I asked a question at a specific time 2 weeks ago.

Here's the updated pics to that question that's self explanatory.

There's ongoing discussion about drawing lines and "indicators" are useless because they use OHLC.

"How about if we draw the OHLC ahead of time".
Is this possible?
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Know what you trade
  • #962
  • Mar 12, 2022 2:07am Mar 12, 2022 2:07am
Quoting BWilliam
{quote} https://www.forexfactory.com/thread/...3#post13910883 I asked a question at a specific time 2 weeks ago. Here's the updated pics to that question that's self explanatory. There's ongoing discussion about drawing lines and "indicators" are useless because they use OHLC. "How about if we draw the OHLC ahead of time". Is this possible? {image} {image} {image}
No idea how you’re working it out BWilliam, but it can only be from a magic volume indicator!
  • #963
  • Mar 12, 2022 5:01am Mar 12, 2022 5:01am
Quoting moodybot
{quote} Hey Bogdan Remember this thread. I felt something wasn't right. Then I was banned....hmmm, with Roger and OHIY. https://www.forexfactory.com/thread/...yone-is-stupid There was a discreet link , still there, post 1. Leads to MQL website. Free EA...... or was, it's now been removed! However with some investigation from (certain members) we could trace back to various Facebook groups. Interesting. He disappeared like a fart in the wind, with forum members on here still blinded by the attraction...
Cheers Andy,

I know what you mean about that thread and in general about FF. This is the environment of FF, full of pretenders, deceivers, millionaire demo traders, scammers so on and so forth. I can write down easily a few examples for each category, but it would be a waste of time, because their followers are blind anyway.

Still, beside that, there are some members who post very useful ideas, comments etc. and I think both, you and Rick, fall under this category. That's why I was surprised seeing you ignoring Rick. That's all.

In other words, what I meant is that there are so few valuable members in here, and I see no point in fighting each other.

Have a great weekend,
Bogdan
On ignore list of scammers, deceivers and low IQ individuals. Exclusively
  • #964
  • Mar 12, 2022 5:22am Mar 12, 2022 5:22am
Quoting moodybot
No idea how you’re working it out BWilliam, but it can only be from a magic volume indicator!
Hi Andy, there's a debate whether this forex market is real supply and demand economics or a "controlled/staged" market.

I made this post to demonstrate how precise this market actually is and how far ahead this "algo" lay out the future market before a single trade is executed. I've done this many times over and over again on this forum to show proof.
It'll be great if volume traders can make similar calls.

I've written many times, I don't use any special indicators. Mostly see the market from the phone.
Ofc the volume indicator won't be relevant at the point I made the post.

There's so much "indicator" trading strategy that traders don't see the market without their favourite indicator.
When traders see the market they're automatically trapped inside this "indicator" mindset.
Know what you trade
  • #965
  • Mar 12, 2022 6:05am Mar 12, 2022 6:05am
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I watch those lines
  • #966
  • Mar 12, 2022 2:17pm Mar 12, 2022 2:17pm
Quoting BWilliam
{quote} Hi Andy, there's a debate whether this forex market is real supply and demand economics or a "controlled/staged" market. I made this post to demonstrate how precise this market actually is and how far ahead this "algo" lay out the future market before a single trade is executed. I've done this many times over and over again on this forum to show proof. It'll be great if volume traders can make similar calls. I've written many times, I don't use any special indicators. Mostly see the market from the phone. Ofc the volume indicator won't be...
Hi BWilliam I think it was back in 2012 when I placed a comment regarding whether the price feed that we see was just natural supply and demand. At the time something didn't sit right with me and it still doesn't.

So on 25th Feb you specifically said to Venkatredy what is the importance of where price stopped on GU, an hour before London close.
That price of course is now the High for March. Not near, not close, but exact. And from a completely discreet candle.

To place price ahead of time can only come from a deep understanding of market structure, and again I will say this, it has zip to do with volume. I cannot prove that, but you have. I think people should step back and look at the whole picture. With the vast amount of money that can be traded on the markets a massive collusion would destabilize the planet, that obviously cannot be allowed to happen where money controls price movement.

And just why isn't there a real volume indicator? Because there isn't any volume. Occams Razor.

That leaves a controlled/staged market.

I do appreciate you referring your post to this thread BWilliam. You have reinforced my belief of the Algo concept. Much appreciated.

*************************************************************************************************************

After taking advice from a good mate of mine, Bogdan, I'll reopen the thread for Rick and Rudydoo.

I like to think the thread has been set up as a democratic debate, and has during Its time here produced some extremely well presented views, opinions.
I shouldn't have blocked them but sometimes a button can get pushed.
If they want to debate against Algo theory with their volume theory, that's fine, but I for one will not be persuaded that volume has anything to do with price.

Andy.
  • #967
  • Mar 12, 2022 4:04pm Mar 12, 2022 4:04pm
"With the vast amount of money that can be traded on the markets a massive collusion would destabilize the planet, that obviously cannot be allowed to happen where money controls price movement"

Interesting point, arguably on the equities market.... it can ! The only visible police to that outcome nowadays is closing the exchange at a certain threshold which as we know has happened occasionally. (not sure there is an upside threshold incidentally) That doesn't happen with forex or derivatives (to my knowledge) but maybe it doesn't have to. So if there are bots in full-time control, maybe they are influenced by the Equities market. If the FTSE100 is climbing, and the DJI is falling, are bots just set up to buy GBP/USD ? - I can believe that. Close the equities market...... maybe it's panic over until tomorrow.

Look at the chaos caused by the Reddit traders..... no business sense, no financial substance, just actual collusion. And let's all be honest, that makes a difference to the exchange/index value in which it is traded whether we like it or not.
  • #968
  • Mar 13, 2022 3:03am Mar 13, 2022 3:03am
Here are some charts of the US30 and SPX500
I have had many many members ask me how I trade and so hopefully they find some of these charts useful. No Magic indis, no Delta, no Eas, no MA Xovers, no oscillators and last but not least no volumes of any sort.

What do I use ?
Well #1 is my brain it is far superior to any algo or indicator by far as I can process and rationalize far greater scenarios and probabilities than any computer can..and So can you ! But you need to look at the picture that works for you. You must trade with what works with your personality.
You must think out of the box..Toss out the indicators and just watch price as it reacts to levels and targets as I outline.

For me that means simplicity...which entails LINES.. Lines that have years of data behind them. Lines and probabilities that are used by scores of successful traders, professional traders.. Myself included for a shameless self plug.

No fake trader Seller/Marketer Youtube guru wants you to know that their is no magical indicator or method or system.. They also like to toss up on their Youtube or Twitter or website PA or market structure with high R:R examples lol (you know the TradingView ones) !!!! ..

But they miss all the high probability confluence factors that surround PA/MS.
Why? Because they are marketers first and traders (if at all) second .

So what are some things that work for Blue Chart wise ?
Daily opens/highs/lows/closes
Patterns
Time of day
Days of the week
Bar counts
Measured Moves
Market Structure
Candle formations

Within each of these are many variables. Some I have eluded to in a few recent posts. I would love to delve into each more deeply but i simply do not have the time...but I will add charts to this great thread as time permits and with comments. Many years of chart study conveyed into words is a difficult task so thus actual charts as a picture can say far more than i can type.

So heres a few charts of the US30 and spX500 Friday March 11,2022. A stellar day for me beyond words.
US30 over 600 pts.
SPX500 over 100 pts

All trades with very high probabilities and very little drawdown.

For many that will seem impossible. And I understand and thats ok. But just look at the charts and if you think in terms of confluence/context of all that is displayed you will “get it” Think of high probabilities relating to Bar 18. Look at the Targets Targets Targets... They are dynamic but always the same.

If one wants to add indicators..throw up a 200EMA and or a 20...watch where it intersects with these charts targets bar counts etc.

And lastly.....to tie into the good old Flyin Dutchman...

There a patterns in all markets for charts are nothing but a picture of rational human thinking nothing more nothing less. And with rational
human thinking comes predictability and patterns. These represent themselves onto the charts every minute of everyday san indicators
and here are some now.

Cheers
Blue

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Master your Mind,,,Master the Market
  • #969
  • Mar 13, 2022 4:49am Mar 13, 2022 4:49am
Quoting bluesteele
Here are some charts of the US30 and SPX500 I have had many many members ask me how I trade and so hopefully they find some of these charts useful. No Magic indis, no Delta, no Eas, no MA Xovers, no oscillators and last but not least no volumes of any sort. What do I use ? Well #1 is my brain it is far superior to any algo or indicator by far as I can process and rationalize far greater scenarios and probabilities than any computer can..and So can you ! But you need to look at the picture that works for you. You must trade with what works with your...
Once again Kev, awesome post.
Will check in with you, as I’m sure others will once digested..,

Andy
  • #970
  • Mar 14, 2022 6:02am Mar 14, 2022 6:02am
I see another pop at the Algo followers, on a certain thread, or at least a pop at me.

Would one of the volume boys like to explain how BWilliam, ahead of time, has posted price, and this on more than one occasion.
Not near price, but exact price, ahead of the game.

How did BWilliam know the Volume way ahead of time! Because that's what's required right, volume.

Yep, gonna get crickets on that one!
  • #971
  • Mar 14, 2022 6:23am Mar 14, 2022 6:23am
Algo? Volume? I don't know, but I will keep learning and learning. I like this game.
BTW bluesteele, thanks for your gold nuggets. Looking forward to reading more.
Have a nice day
Attached Image
  • #972
  • Mar 14, 2022 7:18am Mar 14, 2022 7:18am
Quoting moodybot
I see another pop at the Algo followers, on a certain thread, or at least a pop at me. Would one of the volume boys like to explain how BWilliam, ahead of time, has posted price, and this on more than one occasion. Not near price, but exact price, ahead of the game. How did BWilliam know the Volume way ahead of time! Because that's what's required right, volume. Yep, gonna get crickets on that one!
If you owned / programmed the Algo, then why would you not have placed your orders / volume there ?

We are as traders either pre-emptive or reactive.
It never gets easier, you just get better
  • #973
  • Mar 14, 2022 11:44am Mar 14, 2022 11:44am
“…all the fluctuations in the market and in all the various stocks should be studied as if they were the result of one man’s operations. Let us call him the Composite Man, who, in theory, sits behind the scenes and manipulates the stocks to your disadvantage if you do not understand the game as he plays it; and to your great profit if you do understand it.” (The Richard D. Wyckoff Course in Stock Market Science and Technique, section 9, p. 1-2)

I don't think it matters as to which method one follows (between the two - volume and algo/math, that is price). At the end of the day an x number of positions have to be loaded and offloaded at specific prices).

The Algo/Math method says if I buy an x amount of units today at $100 and I can influence price then I want to sell the same quantity next week at a specific price - say $200 (and make a 100% profit).

The Volume method tracks the actions (the buying and selling of those units - the movement).

The difference between the two is that with the Algo/Math the price is predetermined and known in advance and with the volume you don't know the destination price but as price comes closer to the predetermined price there will be some movement in volume that indicates that they are about to load/offload - for example if the destination is the Stop line or Red traffic lights as you approach the destination you would start the slowing down process such as depressing the braKes pedal.

To estimate the range of the predetermined price Richard D. Wyckoff used the Point & Figure chart and made some calculations using the Accumulation/Distribution trading range (note there is no volume in the PnF chart and time is not an influential factor). So it seems Wyckoff was aware that price is predetermined and one can estimate the range where those who can influence price will start offloading their positions.

One just needs to understand the game they play and my questions to both sides has always been based on this. Before you can come up with an indicator you will have to understand the game they play first as well as the technology's limitations as AI is still developing/evolving (the best indicator is your brain, at the moment).
  • #974
  • Mar 14, 2022 7:04pm Mar 14, 2022 7:04pm
Quoting Pumi
So it seems Wyckoff was aware that price is predetermined and one can estimate the range where those who can influence price will start offloading their positions. One just needs to understand the game they play and my questions to both sides has always been based on this. Before you can come up with an indicator you will have to understand the game they play first as well as the technology's limitations as AI is still developing/evolving (the best indicator is your brain, at the moment).
Quoting moodybot
I see another pop at the Algo followers, on a certain thread, or at least a pop at me. Would one of the volume boys like to explain how BWilliam, ahead of time, has posted price, and this on more than one occasion. Not near price, but exact price, ahead of the game. How did BWilliam know the Volume way ahead of time! Because that's what's required right, volume. Yep, gonna get crickets on that one!
Hi guys, Pumi wrote it spot on "you have to understand the game they play".

Let me try explain without giving it away.

Volume data show extremes mostly spikes that mark a swing and scalpers fade swings, many mini swings in a trading day. Swing traders also fade spikes within a swing on a longer time horizon. If we study people's trades in detail every trader trade market extremes mark by spikes. Traders are naturally attracted to spikes especially if they line up to another spike. And volume data make sense that appeal to the logical mind. Compare to rsi overbought or channel bands, volume data appear to be the superior choice.

The main point I want to bring attention to is spike that mark market extreme. Spike stir our monkey brain that tell us this is the high or low point. That's why we fade Spikes or market extremes. This is the core of every trading strategy. Buy low, sell high, naturally mean fade market extreme. Which points to spikes. This is the gospel truth that's so ingrained into every traders mindset that is orientated around spikes that dominate the way we see the charts.

Check your trades. Look at them and go through your thoughts and emotion again what triggered you to take those trades. You find this "trigger" is the spike.

Pumi wrote, you have to understand the game. We cannot understand the game if we allow our brain to be manipulated and dominated by spikes. If we trade with overbought/oversold, upper/lower bands or volume data or other similar "indicator" our mindset is dominated by spike. And our natural reaction is to buy low sell high, fade market extreme. That's the mindset how every trader analyse the chart.

The message is, if we want to understand the game then understand the game as it is. We have to somehow stop our mind from orientating towards market extremes, ie. spikes that stand out on the charts, buy low sell high mindset. This is a biased mindset that won't allow us to understand the game. Our analysis is already biased with our preset mind. If we scalp, we are reinforcing this mindset multiple times a day, it becomes so deeply embedded into our mind. That's why I wrote to stay away from scalping if the trader wants to understand the game. This game is simple if only we get rid of what dominates our mind.

Do you want to understand the game or do you want to win your trades, which is more important to you? Cheers.
Know what you trade
  • #975
  • Mar 14, 2022 8:17pm Mar 14, 2022 8:17pm
Quoting BWilliam
{quote}
The message is, if we want to understand the game then understand the game as it is.

Hi BW,

I agree with much of your message, particularly about understanding the game.

However, as a staunch scalper lol, I cannot follow your argument against scalping, but I do accept it as your opinion (for your own trading).


I ABSOLUTELY agree that we must understand the game.
(But after that scalping is just as viable imho as any other form of trading).

For me I scalp mainly because of the limited times of day I can trade, and secondly because I do not leave any trade afloat after entry,
but monitor it in the office with sideways glances lol while listening to music, reading etc

In these 'current' turbulent times I would personally NOT leave any trade just floating with me NOT there, but that is just me.


I would be very interested to hear you expand, BW, on understanding the market as we do share common ideas.

Your charts the other day on GBPUSD where you posted price ACCURATELY ahead of time was a joy to see pal. Well done.
Pete


I do NOT profess to be a skilled entry trader,
but I believe I now know the game/area I trade in,
based on long term observations, no data, targets, limited indicators

so I post 3 here trades I took just around NY open and where I usually close early and shut down
(as sometimes my open trades can last four hours and at that time of night it is not viable for me).

Not posted as what any trader should do, but just what I do lol. +19p


.
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  • #976
  • Mar 14, 2022 9:08pm Mar 14, 2022 9:08pm
SCENARIO TRADING:

Idea: Weakness going into the weekend as it pertains to US Indices S&P/Dow and what effect it has on Monday

Is their anything to it ?
Can we find an edge to exploit ?
Are the markets truly random ?
Is Andy really RedOktober ?

Well lets take a look at “Weakness going into a weekend”

SCENARIO :
Friday trades below Thursdays highs..what can we expect of Mondays trading session?

Over the course of a year 52 trading weeks comparing Thursday and Friday... 21 weeks Friday could not trade above Thursday.
Alright now stay with me. Out of those 21 weeks how many times did Monday trade lower than Friday?

Heres the results.. 20 out of 21 times Monday traded lower than Friday. Im sure most can do the division on these two numbers. Maybe im wrong but that seems like 95% to me. There is nothing random about a pattern that is 95% accurate.

There are patterns in all markets, for charts are nothing but a picture of rational human thinking nothing more nothing less. And with rational human thinking comes predictability and patterns. These represent themselves onto the charts every minute of everyday san indicators.

All of which forms my wonderful friend George’s term “Psychology of the Market”.

There is no randomness in a complete chart.. One bar yes..but strung together high probability patterns emerge. The charts are much like the Insurance business. Probabilities, Statistics and management of risk. Traders are much like Actuaries and the charts are the people as a whole and candles the individual person... Well that's how my simple thinking mind sees it anyways.

So I’ve attached a 5M chart and a 4HR... The 4 Hr showing the Thu/Fri/Mon pattern.. (Mar 3,4,7)
but it only works 95% of the time and may involve the use of lines.. As well I’ve X’d the 4hr bar that corresponds or ties into the US open. Its something that I pay attention too for bias on the 5minute/1 minute trades. (as well as the 1hr). Not just the particular candle but more Context and Confluence of the structure surrounding that candle.. Unless of course we get a beautiful 4 hr Pin bar such as Fridays.

The 5M chart simply showing the 18 bar 90 minute open and the short off the Open.
20% probability that Bar 1 is the High of the day.
95% probability Monday will trade lower than Friday.
***Notice how price reacts to extended green line at low of formed 18 bar box
Weekend Gap has been filled.
Put it all together and pull the trigger

Cheers
Blue

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Master your Mind,,,Master the Market
  • #977
  • Mar 14, 2022 9:18pm Mar 14, 2022 9:18pm
Quoting TimeTells
Hi BW, I agree with much of your message, particularly about understanding the game. However, as a staunch scalper lol, I cannot follow your argument against scalping, but I do accept it as your opinion (for your own trading). I ABSOLUTELY agree that we must understand the game. (But after that scalping is just as viable imho as any other form of trading). For me I scalp mainly because of the limited times of day I can trade, and secondly because I do not leave any trade afloat after entry, but monitor it in the office with sideways glances...
Hi Pete, what I wrote tells about something simple that almost every trader miss. I'm not teaching like a guru. But to tell traders the real thing that happens every trading day.

Look at the GU chart. The market made 2 moves, one up to day high then the next move to day low. That's how simple this market is. If you trade from Asian market you just press the buy button anytime anywhere, you get a good profit. If you trade in US time, you press the sell button after London close anytime anywhere you get a good profit. You just have to press the correct button at the correct time of the day.

The US30 chart shows the same 2 moves.

There's no need for overbought oversold, or channel bands or volume data or price action or whatever trusted indicator.

The crux of the matter is whether the trader knew before hand this Monday market will make those 2 moves ahead of time, ie, before this happens.

Those 2 moves are now very clear on the chart. 20/20 hindsight. Can the trader tell at the start of the trading day this 2 moves will happen ? Therefore the question is whether we look to answer this question or we look to win our trades ? Can you imagine how simple trading becomes if we understand what this market does in the future. Do we realise how little we know/understand if we don't know about this 2 moves before/while they happen ?

This brings to question, are we able to know before hand. If we say it's not possible then we go down the road of "indicator" trading. If we say it's possible and that's important to understand then the traders focus is to research about this. That's why I wrote what's important to the trader, understand the market(the 2 moves) or win his trades ?

I wrote a post about greed and fear that dictate that we win our trades, we cant put that aside. Worse if trade for a living. This strong emotions rob us from learning to understand this market the way it is.
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Know what you trade
  • #978
  • Mar 14, 2022 9:37pm Mar 14, 2022 9:37pm
Same thing happened last Friday. And every other day.

I know I'm telling something unconventional(out of the box) that looks impossible.

Consider this, if the trader does not know ahead of time then he is left to trade what his trusted "indicator" tell him. Traders scalp or swing trade when the "indicator" gives the trigger signal.

Or the trader try to understand the market.
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Know what you trade
  • #979
  • Mar 14, 2022 10:19pm Mar 14, 2022 10:19pm
Quoting BWilliam
Same thing happened last Friday. And every other day. I know I'm telling something unconventional(out of the box) that looks impossible. Consider this, if the trader does not know ahead of time then he is left to trade what his trusted "indicator" tell him. Traders scalp or swing trade when the "indicator" gives the trigger signal. Or the trader try to understand the market. {image} {image}
Trading is all about making assumptions. Some use their brains and some use borrowed brains (indicators).
For me the reality is that there is an auction, there is an auctioneer (designated market maker) and there are participants.
Unlike other auctioneers, those managing financial trading don't get paid a fee. They have to earn it and so are not neutral. Sometimes, they join hands with cartels of bidders, sometimes have to use their own pockets to keep the market alive. Essentially, their task, like a casino operator, is to keep the trading process attractive enough for participants. I use game theory in day trading (tracking the assumed market makers' moves in terms of size mainly - not timing) using mind and machines. The mind for spotting assumed locations and the machine to execute scalping transactions at those locations. 80% win rate is required if not using a stop loss.
Essentially, known triggers of volatility matter. Chart reading is required.
Practice makes a person perfect
  • #980
  • Edited Mar 15, 2022 9:26am Mar 14, 2022 10:24pm | Edited Mar 15, 2022 9:26am
Quoting BWilliam
{quote}The crux of the matter is whether the trader knew before hand this Monday market will make those 2 moves ahead of time, ie, before this happens. Those 2 moves are now very clear on the chart. 20/20 hindsight. Can the trader tell at the start of the trading day this 2 moves will happen ?
Hi BWilliam, I've been away for a few weeks but stopped by this evening and read your post.

I did not "know" at the start of trading day that those 2 moves would develop. I do not know what PA will look like 4 hours into the trading day. However, every day, I select the currency pairs that I think will move, and I predict the likely "move". Today, I selected the G$ and E$ as likely to move up then square up that move, and the EA as likely to move up. I also had the GY and EY as possible trades, but neither mattered to me as the other three pairs were more than enough for me.

The goal is to anticipate what is going to happen and to be prepared to trade it during the day. I traded the G$ and E$ to targets, and then reversed both to the square up levels. I didn't know that it work out that way, but I was prepared to trade it when it happened. I anticipated that PA would do that, traded it when if started to develop (both up and down) and was prepared from a risk management perspective if the square up move failed. What were the clues? Several things: it's a Monday, which is sometimes a day of preparation for trading objectives in the upcoming week; there were no significant FA's today; the Ukraine situation has been largely absorbed by the market and today is the first day that the market could pause. All that, in my mind, said the G$ and E$ would move and square. Of course, if something changed those assumptions, then I would be ready to respond, if possible.

As for the EA, we've been trading the GA and EA for several weeks now. Today was an extension of that thinking.

When I read your post, what came to mind is the step that comes before "what is going to happen". First step is to narrow down the universe of pairs into a solid list of pairs that will likely move (they have room to move and are ready to move), and cut those that are movement challenged and/or have barriers to movement. Once you get to that list, then your question comes into play. And it is necessary to have some idea, as you point out, what the PA in the next 4 to 8 hours (at least) will likely look like, and have a trading plan for each possible development.

A little less "know" and a lot more prepared.

Trade well, BWilliam!
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